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    • All HBS Web  (4,375)
      • Faculty Publications  (635)

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      • April 2022
      • Article

      Predictable Financial Crises

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
      Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?

      By: Laura Alfaro, Maggie X. Chen and Davin Chor
      We investigate the role of evidence-based information in shaping individuals' preferences for trade policies through a series of survey experiments that contain randomized information treatments. Each information treatment provides a concise statement of...  View Details
      Keywords: Evidence; Preference; Trade Policy; Information; Trade; Policy; Attitudes
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      Alfaro, Laura, Maggie X. Chen, and Davin Chor. "Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-062, March 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Credit Rating Agency Market in Africa

      By: Saveshen Pillay and Anywhere Sikochi
      In this paper, we present the credit rating agency market on the continent of Africa as a potential research setting for accounting-related research. Largely unexplored in prior literature, Africa-based rating agencies provide access to information about a broad range...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Rating; Credit Rating Agencies; Regulation; Conflict Of Interest; Credit; Capital; Africa
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      Pillay, Saveshen, and Anywhere Sikochi. "The Credit Rating Agency Market in Africa." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-074, June 2022. (Journal of Financial Reporting, proposal accepted-in-principle.)
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

      By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
      Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless...  View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods
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      Menchetti, Fiammetta, and Iavor Bojinov. "Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models." Annals of Applied Statistics 16, no. 1 (March 2022): 414–435.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Climate Solutions Investments

      By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
      An increasing number of companies are providing products and services that help reduce carbon emissions in the economy. We develop a methodology to identify those companies and create a sample of publicly listed climate solutions companies allowing us to study their...  View Details
      Keywords: Decarbonization; Climate Finance; Climate Impact; Climate Risk; Environment; Sustainability; Carbon Emissions; Electric Vehicles; Energy; Renewables; Climate Change; Investment; Environmental Sustainability; Renewable Energy; Transportation Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Energy Industry; Industrial Products Industry; China; United States; Asia; Europe
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      Cheema-Fox, Alex, George Serafeim, and Hui (Stacie) Wang. "Climate Solutions Investments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-054, January 2022.
      • January 2022 (Revised February 2022)
      • Case

      Introducing EVA at ISS: A Better Way to Evaluate CEO Performance and Compensation?

      By: Jonas Heese, Charles C.Y. Wang and James Weber
      In early 2019, Anthony Campagna, the global director of fundamental research at ISS EVA, a unit of the proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), was preparing to release ISS's analyses of public company performance and CEO compensation ahead of Say...  View Details
      Keywords: Jobs and Positions; Compensation and Benefits; Performance; Performance Productivity; Measurement and Metrics; Analytics and Data Science; Value; Business or Company Management; Performance Evaluation; Business and Shareholder Relations
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      Heese, Jonas, Charles C.Y. Wang, and James Weber. "Introducing EVA at ISS: A Better Way to Evaluate CEO Performance and Compensation?" Harvard Business School Case 122-061, January 2022. (Revised February 2022.)
      • Article

      The Translucent Hand of Managed Ecosystems: Engaging Communities for Value Creation and Capture

      By: Elizabeth J. Altman, Frank Nagle and Michael Tushman
      Management research has increasingly explored the domains of ecosystems, platforms, and open/user/distributed innovation—governance structures focused on engaging with external communities. While these research areas include substantial empirical and theoretical work...  View Details
      Keywords: Ecosystems; Platforms; Open And User Innovation Strategy; Capabilities; Governance; Innovation Strategy; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Value Creation
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      Altman, Elizabeth J., Frank Nagle, and Michael Tushman. "The Translucent Hand of Managed Ecosystems: Engaging Communities for Value Creation and Capture." Academy of Management Annals 16, no. 1 (January 2022).
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Can Self-Regulation Save Digital Platforms?

      By: Michael A. Cusumano, Annabelle Gawer and David B. Yoffie
      This article explores some of the critical challenges facing self-regulation and the regulatory environment for digital platforms. We examine several historical examples of firms and industries that attempted self-regulation before the Internet. All dealt with similar...  View Details
      Keywords: Self-regulation; Government Regulation; Digital Platforms; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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      Cusumano, Michael A., Annabelle Gawer, and David B. Yoffie. "Can Self-Regulation Save Digital Platforms?" Industrial and Corporate Change 30, no. 5 (October 2021): 1259–1285.
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

      By: Nicolas Padilla and Eva Ascarza
      The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Programs; Consumer Behavior; Analysis
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      Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 58, no. 5 (October 2021): 981–1006.
      • 2021
      • Article

      How Top Managers Use the Entrepreneurial Gap to Drive Strategic Change

      By: Robert L. Simons and Antonio Davila
      Prior research provides strong evidence for the association between business strategy and the design and use of management control systems. We complement this research by examining the role of management control systems in situations of strategic change. We report the...  View Details
      Keywords: Management Control Systems; Accountability; Strategic Change; Organization Change And Adaptation; Organizational Performance; Management Systems; Organizational Structure; Corporate Accountability; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Performance
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      Simons, Robert L., and Antonio Davila. "How Top Managers Use the Entrepreneurial Gap to Drive Strategic Change." European Accounting Review 30, no. 4 (2021): 583–609.
      • September 2021
      • Article

      Trials and Terminations: Learning from Competitors' R&D Failures

      By: Joshua L. Krieger
      I analyze project continuation decisions where firms may resolve uncertainty through news about competitors' research and development (R&D) failures, as well as through their own results. I examine the trade-offs and interactions between product-market competition and...  View Details
      Keywords: Research and Development; Projects; Failure; Decision Making; Learning
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      Krieger, Joshua L. "Trials and Terminations: Learning from Competitors' R&D Failures." Management Science 67, no. 9 (September 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Customer Churn and Intangible Capital

      By: Scott Baker, Brian Baugh and Marco Sammon
      Intangible capital is a crucial and growing piece of firms’ capital structure and helps to explain long run trends in concentration and markups. We develop new firm level metrics regarding a key component of intangible capital—customer churn—using a class of household...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Base; Transaction Data; Customer Churn; Intangible Capital; Capital; Capital Structure; Customers
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      Baker, Scott, Brian Baugh, and Marco Sammon. "Customer Churn and Intangible Capital." Working Paper, December 2021.
      • 2021
      • Book

      The Power of Trust: How Companies Build It, Lose It, Regain It

      By: Sandra J. Sucher and Shalene Gupta
      Trust is the most powerful force underlying the success of every business. Yet it can be shattered in an instant, with a devastating impact on a company’s market cap and reputation. How to build and sustain trust requires fresh insight into why customers, employees,...  View Details
      Keywords: Power; Corporate Culture; Future Of Work; Innovation; Technology Strategy; Automation; Stakeholder Engagement; Employee Attitude; Customer Behavior; Shareholder Value; Government And Business; Impact Investing; Corporate Change And Sustainability; Trust; Power and Influence; Globalization; Leadership; Organizational Culture; Innovation and Invention; Human Resources; Information Technology; Strategy; Corporate Accountability; Asia; Europe; South America; Middle East; North and Central America
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      Sucher, Sandra J., and Shalene Gupta. The Power of Trust: How Companies Build It, Lose It, Regain It. New York: PublicAffairs, 2021.
      • Summer 2021
      • Article

      The Cost and Evolution of Quality at Cipla Ltd, 1935–2016

      By: Muhammad H. Zaman and Tarun Khanna
      This article examines the evolution of Indian pharmaceutical manufacturer Cipla towards producing drugs that met the quality standards of European and U.S. regulators. It employs new research in Cipla’s corporate archives, the Creating Emerging Markets database, and...  View Details
      Keywords: Cipla; Pharmaceuticals; Drug Quality; Generics; Quality; Standards; Information Technology; Cost; Organizational Culture; Business History; Pharmaceutical Industry; India
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      Zaman, Muhammad H., and Tarun Khanna. "The Cost and Evolution of Quality at Cipla Ltd, 1935–2016." Business History Review 95, no. 2 (Summer 2021): 249–274.
      • June 2021 (Revised June 2021)
      • Case

      Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment

      By: Luis M. Viceira, Emily R. McComb and Dean Xu
      This case examines modern endowment investment management through the lens of a leadership transition between Chief Investment Officers (CIOs). In March 2021, Paula Volent is about to step down as the CIO of the endowment of Bowdoin College after twenty-one years, and...  View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Banking; Growth Management; Investment Return; Capital Markets; Interest Rates; Competition; Cost Management; Risk Management; Financial Liquidity; Performance Evaluation
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      Viceira, Luis M., Emily R. McComb, and Dean Xu. "Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment." Harvard Business School Case 221-101, June 2021. (Revised June 2021.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Risk Sensitivity or Social Signaling? Unmasking Behaviors with Video Analytics

      By: Shunyuan Zhang, Kaiquan Xu and Kannan Srinivasan
      In 2020, as the novel coronavirus spread globally, face masks were recommended in public settings to protect against and slow down the spread of the coronavirus. Why did people comply, or not, while shopping in 2020? Do these motivations relate to their shopping...  View Details
      Keywords: Video Analytics; In-store Shopping; Mask; Sensitivity To Risk; Social Perception; COVID-19; Health Pandemics; Consumer Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Attitudes
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      Zhang, Shunyuan, Kaiquan Xu, and Kannan Srinivasan. "Risk Sensitivity or Social Signaling? Unmasking Behaviors with Video Analytics." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-143, June 2021. (SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 3871144, June 2021.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Diffusion of Disruptive Technologies

      By: Nicholas Bloom, Tarek A. Hassan, Aakash Kalyani, Josh Lerner and Ahmed Tahoun
      We identify novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls. Our approach enables us to identify and document the diffusion of 29 disruptive technologies across firms and labor markets in the U.S. Five stylized facts emerge from...  View Details
      Keywords: Technology; Geography; Innovation; R&D; Information Technology; Disruptive Innovation; Geographic Location; Employment; Innovation and Invention; Research and Development
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      Bloom, Nicholas, Tarek A. Hassan, Aakash Kalyani, Josh Lerner, and Ahmed Tahoun. "The Diffusion of Disruptive Technologies." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-144, June 2021.
      • June 23, 2021
      • Article

      Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story

      By: Eva Ascarza
      When it comes to churn prevention, marketers traditionally start by identifying which customers are most likely to churn, and then running A/B tests to determine whether a proposed retention intervention will be effective at retaining those high-risk customers. While...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Retention; Churn; Targeting; Market Research; Marketing; Investment Return; Customers; Retention; Research
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      Ascarza, Eva. "Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (June 23, 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Regulatory Approval and Expanded Market Size

      By: Benjamin Berger, Amitabh Chandra and Craig Garthwaite
      Regulatory review of new medicines is often viewed as a hindrance to innovation by increasing the hurdle to bring products to market. However, a more complete accounting of regulation must also account for its potential market expanding effects through quality...  View Details
      Keywords: New Medicines; Regulatory Approval; Health Care and Treatment; Research and Development; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Markets; Expansion; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Berger, Benjamin, Amitabh Chandra, and Craig Garthwaite. "Regulatory Approval and Expanded Market Size." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28889, June 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Which Markets (Don't) Drive Pharmaceutical Innovation? Evidence From U.S. Medicaid Expansions

      By: Craig Garthwaite, Rebecca Sachs and Ariel Dora Stern
      Pharmaceutical innovation policy involves managing a tradeoff between high prices for new products in the short-term and stronger incentives to develop products for the future. Prior research has documented a causal relationship between market size and pharmaceutical...  View Details
      Keywords: Pharmaceuticals; Medicaid; Innovation and Invention; Policy; Markets; Research and Development; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Garthwaite, Craig, Rebecca Sachs, and Ariel Dora Stern. "Which Markets (Don't) Drive Pharmaceutical Innovation? Evidence From U.S. Medicaid Expansions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28755, May 2021.
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