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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (151)
      • Faculty Publications  (16)

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand
      In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the...  View Details
      Keywords: United States Treasury; Monetary Policy; Yield Curve; Central Banking; Interest Rates; Valuation
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates." Working Paper, January 2022.
      • February 2021
      • Tutorial

      Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

      By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein
      This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and...  View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Experiments; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation
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      Toffel, Michael, and Natalie Epstein. Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models. Harvard Business School Tutorial 621-706, February 2021.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      Machine Learning for Pattern Discovery in Management Research

      By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Ryan Allen and Michael G. Endres
      Supervised machine learning (ML) methods are a powerful toolkit for discovering robust patterns in quantitative data. The patterns identified by ML could be used for exploratory inductive or abductive research, or for post-hoc analysis of regression results to detect...  View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Supervised Machine Learning; Induction; Abduction; Exploratory Data Analysis; Pattern Discovery; Decision Trees; Random Forests; Neural Networks; ROC Curve; Confusion Matrix; Partial Dependence Plots; AI and Machine Learning
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      Choudhury, Prithwiraj, Ryan Allen, and Michael G. Endres. "Machine Learning for Pattern Discovery in Management Research." Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 1 (January 2021): 30–57.
      • August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
      • Technical Note

      Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

      By: Michael W. Toffel, Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
      The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools...  View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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      Toffel, Michael W., Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira, and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-045, August 2020. (Revised September 2020.)
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      The Future of Executive Development: The CLO's Compass and The Executive Programs Designer's Guide

      By: Mihnea Moldoveanu and Das Narayandas
      Executive education worldwide has entered a period of disruption catalyzed by the digitalization of content, connectivity, and communication—while the demand for managerial skills is growing. The forces of disintermediation, disaggregation, and decoupling are creating...  View Details
      Keywords: Digitalization; Executive Education; Disruption; Leadership Development; Management Skills; Curriculum and Courses; Internet and the Web; Design
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      Moldoveanu, Mihnea, and Das Narayandas. "The Future of Executive Development: The CLO's Compass and The Executive Programs Designer's Guide." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-060, November 2019.
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Supplement

      LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) and (B) cases. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds an even more sophisticated model using the gradient boosted tree method to predict, with some probability, whether a borrower would repay or default...  View Details
      Keywords: Data Analytics; Data Science; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-022, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • Summer 2016
      • Article

      The Real Lessons From Kodak's Decline

      By: Willy C. Shih
      Eastman Kodak is often mischaracterized as a company whose managers didn't recognize soon enough that digital technology would decimate its traditional business. However, what really happened at Kodak is much more complicated—and instructive. Kodak suffered from a...  View Details
      Keywords: Technological Change; Disruption; Ecosystem; Semiconductors; Photography; Scaling-up; Scaling; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Information Technology; Product; Consumer Products Industry; United States
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      Shih, Willy C. "The Real Lessons From Kodak's Decline." MIT Sloan Management Review 57, no. 4 (Summer 2016): 11–13.
      • November 2015
      • Article

      Influence of Experience and the Surgical Learning Curve on Long-term Patient Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery

      By: Bryan M. Burt, Andrew W. ElBardissi, Robert S. Huckman, Lawrence H. Cohn, Marisa W. Cevasco, James D. Rawn, Sary F. Aranki and John G. Byrne
      OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that increased post-graduate surgical experience correlates with improved operative efficiency and long-term survival in standard cardiac surgery procedures.

      METHODS: Utilizing a prospectively collected retrospective database,...  View Details
      Keywords: Service Delivery; Value; Health Care and Treatment; Experience and Expertise; Health Industry
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      Burt, Bryan M., Andrew W. ElBardissi, Robert S. Huckman, Lawrence H. Cohn, Marisa W. Cevasco, James D. Rawn, Sary F. Aranki, and John G. Byrne. "Influence of Experience and the Surgical Learning Curve on Long-term Patient Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery." Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 150, no. 5 (November 2015): 1061–1067.
      • August 2013 (Revised November 2020)
      • Case

      Tesla Motors

      By: Eric Van den Steen
      In mid-2013, Tesla Motors was riding a wave of success: It had launched its first really mass-produced car—the model S—to rave reviews; had recently raised first-year production targets; and had started taking orders for its next car, the Model X. Tesla seemed to be on...  View Details
      Keywords: Barriers To Entry; Economic Analysis; Learning Curve; Economies Of Scale; Innovation; Market Entry; Sustainable Competitive Advantage; Vision; Strategy And Leadership; Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Competitive Advantage; Technological Innovation; Leadership; Learning; Economics; Analysis; Auto Industry
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      Van den Steen, Eric. "Tesla Motors." Harvard Business School Case 714-413, August 2013. (Revised November 2020.)
      • July 2010
      • Supplement

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis (CW)

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      Pricing is one of the most difficult decisions marketers make and the one with the most direct and immediate impact on the firm's financial position. This toolkit will introduce the fundamental terminology and calculations associated with pricing and profitability...  View Details
      Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Decisions; Strategic Planning; Price; Partners and Partnerships; Cost; Demand and Consumers; Revenue; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Measurement and Metrics
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 511-701, July 2010.
      • July 2010 (Revised December 2011)
      • Background Note

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      Pricing is one of the most difficult decisions marketers make and the one with the most direct and immediate impact on the firm's financial position. This toolkit will introduce the fundamental terminology and calculations associated with pricing and profitability...  View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Profit; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Strategic Planning; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 511-028, July 2010. (Revised December 2011.)
      • September 2009
      • Article

      A Detailed Analysis of the Reduction Mammaplasty Learning Curve: A Statistical Process Model for Approaching Surgical Performance Improvement

      By: Matthew Carty MD, Rodney Chan, Robert S. Huckman, Daniel C. Snow and Dennis Orgill

      Background: The increased focus on quality and efficiency improvement within academic surgery has met with variable success among plastic surgeons. Traditional surgical performance metrics, such as morbidity and mortality, are insufficient to improve the...  View Details

      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Health Care and Treatment; Medical Specialties; Outcome or Result; Performance Efficiency; Performance Improvement
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      Carty, Matthew, MD, Rodney Chan, Robert S. Huckman, Daniel C. Snow, and Dennis Orgill. "A Detailed Analysis of the Reduction Mammaplasty Learning Curve: A Statistical Process Model for Approaching Surgical Performance Improvement." Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery 124, no. 3 (September 2009): 706–714.
      • July 2001 (Revised March 2002)
      • Case

      Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc., The

      By: Andre F. Perold and Austin K Scee
      NASDAQ's mission "to facilitate capital formation" is threatened by the emergence of Electronic Communication Networks, which are not as heavily regulated by the SEC. This case reviews the development of NASDAQ and its evolution from a loose network of broker-dealers...  View Details
      Keywords: Capital Markets; Stocks; Financial Markets; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Innovation Strategy; Performance Efficiency; Perspective
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      Perold, Andre F., and Austin K Scee. "Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc., The." Harvard Business School Case 202-008, July 2001. (Revised March 2002.)
      • 1998
      • Journal Article

      Ford's Model-T: Pricing over the Product Life Cycle

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell
      The pricing decisions monopolistic firms make over time are determined to a large extent by the complex interplay of two distinct sets of elements: demand- and supply-based considerations. Demand factors include the possibilities of (a) exercising dynamic price...  View Details
      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Price; Information; Demand and Consumers; Monopoly; Product; Sales; Complexity; Auto Industry
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon. "Ford's Model-T: Pricing over the Product Life Cycle." Abante: Estudios en dirección de empresas 1, no. 2 (1998): 143–65.
      • December 1991 (Revised October 1998)
      • Case

      Eli Lilly and Co.: Manufacturing Process Technology Strategy--1991

      By: Gary P. Pisano, Steven C. Wheelwright and Jonathan West
      Outlines the evolution of Lilly's corporate manufacturing strategy over the past decade. The corporate vice president of manufacturing must decide on the next phase of Lilly's strategy for the early 1990s, as well as to what extent and what role process development...  View Details
      Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Management Practices and Processes; Industry Structures; Product Development; Production; Research and Development; Competitive Advantage; Corporate Strategy; Manufacturing Industry
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      Pisano, Gary P., Steven C. Wheelwright, and Jonathan West. "Eli Lilly and Co.: Manufacturing Process Technology Strategy--1991." Harvard Business School Case 692-056, December 1991. (Revised October 1998.)
      • Article

      Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules

      By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
      The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a...  View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Precision Medicine; Uplift Modeling; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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      Imai, Kosuke, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules." Journal of the American Statistical Association (in press). (Published online 6/21/21.)
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