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- January 2025
- Technical Note
AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix
By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart
This technical note introduces the confusion matrix as a foundational tool in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) for assessing the performance of classification models, focusing on their reliability for decision-making. A confusion matrix... View Details
- January 2025
- Case
Redwood & Strong: The Value of a Consulting Engagement
By: David G. Fubini and Patrick Sanguineti
The board of Redwood & Strong LLP (R&S), the American branch of a large global law firm, is meeting to review the findings of a recent strategic initiative designed to identify potential merger candidates. The request for the engagement originated from Daniel Crawford,... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns
By: Shirley Lu, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu and George Serafeim
Using large language models to measure firms' climate solution products and services, we find that high-climate solution firms exhibit lower stock returns and higher market valuation multiples. Their stock prices respond positively to events signaling increased demand... View Details
Keywords: Technology; Generative Ai; Large Language Models; Climate Finance; Climate Change; Innovation and Invention; Environmental Sustainability; AI and Machine Learning; Investment; Financial Markets
Lu, Shirley, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu, and George Serafeim. "Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-024, November 2024.
- November 2024 (Revised December 2024)
- Case
Moonfare and the Democratization of Private Equity
By: Victoria Ivashina and Srimayi Mylavarapu
Founded in 2016, Moonfare headquartered in Europe, was a pioneer in the “democratization” of private equity investments. Historically, private equity was accessible only to institutional investors like pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, and large family... View Details
Ivashina, Victoria, and Srimayi Mylavarapu. "Moonfare and the Democratization of Private Equity." Harvard Business School Case 225-044, November 2024. (Revised December 2024.)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Catalysts for Climate Solutions: Corporate Responses to Venture Capital Financing of Climate-tech Startups
By: Shirley Lu, George Serafeim and Simon Xu
We study whether incumbent firms increase their product focus on climate solutions in response to venture capital (VC) financing of climate-tech startups. Using large language models to measure a firm's focus on climate solutions, we find that incumbents in similar... View Details
Keywords: Climate Finance; Climate Change; Technological Innovation; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Private Equity; Environmental Sustainability; Business Startups
Lu, Shirley, George Serafeim, and Simon Xu. "Catalysts for Climate Solutions: Corporate Responses to Venture Capital Financing of Climate-tech Startups." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-025, November 2024.
- November 2024
- Article
Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs
By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano
This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details
Ling, Xi, Wesley R. Hartmann, and Tomomichi Amano. "Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs." Management Science 70, no. 11 (November 2024): 7892–7910.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics
Calvo, Richard, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33016, October 2024.
- September–October 2024
- Article
The Crowdless Future? Generative AI and Creative Problem-Solving
The rapid advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI) open up attractive opportunities for creative problem-solving through human-guided AI partnerships. To explore this potential, we initiated a crowdsourcing challenge focused on sustainable, circular economy... View Details
Boussioux, Leonard, Jacqueline N. Lane, Miaomiao Zhang, Vladimir Jacimovic, and Karim R. Lakhani. "The Crowdless Future? Generative AI and Creative Problem-Solving." INFORMS Organization Science 35, no. 5 (September–October 2024): 1571–1955.
- September 2024
- Case
Xendit: Hiring for Growth
By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Steve Castano, Quoc Anh Nguyen and Claire Wu
In 2019, Xendit, a growth-stage Southeast Asia (SEA) fintech venture based in Jakarta, was looking to hire a Head of Sales and Head of Product to lead its next phase of growth. Founded by Moses Lo and Tessa Wijaya, Xendit provided payment infrastructure, modeling... View Details
Keywords: Fintech; Financing and Loans; Entrepreneurship; Jobs and Positions; Sales; Product; Growth and Development; Selection and Staffing; Organizational Culture; Expansion; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Southeast Asia; Indonesia; Philippines
Rayport, Jeffrey F., Steve Castano, Quoc Anh Nguyen, and Claire Wu. "Xendit: Hiring for Growth." Harvard Business School Case 825-046, September 2024.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain
By: Santiago E. Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano
We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details
Alvarez-Blaser, Santiago E., Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay, and Paolo Mengano. "Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-009, August 2024. (Revised January 2025.)
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Financial Anatomy of Climate Solutions: A Large Language Model Approach to Company Classification and Analysis
By: Shirley Lu and George Serafeim
Leveraging advancements in large language models (LLM), we study the financial characteristics of firms offering climate solutions-products and services aimed at fostering a transition to a low-carbon economy. We use a new measure that applies LLM to 10-K Item 1... View Details
Keywords: Climate; Climate Finance; Innovation; Technology; Financial Statement Analysis; AI and Machine Learning; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Analysis; Financial Statements
Lu, Shirley, and George Serafeim. "The Financial Anatomy of Climate Solutions: A Large Language Model Approach to Company Classification and Analysis." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-026, August 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Narrative AI Advantage? A Field Experiment on Generative AI-Augmented Evaluations of Early-Stage Innovations
By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Léonard Boussioux, Charles Ayoubi, Ying Hao Chen, Camila Lin, Rebecca Spens, Pooja Wagh and Pei-Hsin Wang
The rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming creative problem-solving, necessitating new approaches for evaluating innovative solutions. This study explores how human-AI collaboration can enhance early-stage evaluations, focusing on the interplay... View Details
Lane, Jacqueline N., Léonard Boussioux, Charles Ayoubi, Ying Hao Chen, Camila Lin, Rebecca Spens, Pooja Wagh, and Pei-Hsin Wang. "The Narrative AI Advantage? A Field Experiment on Generative AI-Augmented Evaluations of Early-Stage Innovations." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-001, August 2024. (Revised August 2024.)
- August 2024
- Article
How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?
By: Leemore S. Dafny, Kate Ho and Edward Kong
Drug copayment coupons to reduce patient cost-sharing have become nearly ubiquitous for high-priced brand-name prescription drugs. Medicare bans such coupons on the grounds that they are kickbacks that induce utilization, but they are commonly used by... View Details
Keywords: Prescription Drugs; Coupons; Impact; Health Care and Treatment; Markets; Price; Spending; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States
Dafny, Leemore S., Kate Ho, and Edward Kong. "How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?" American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 16, no. 3 (August 2024): 314–346.
- July 2024
- Article
Chatbots and Mental Health: Insights into the Safety of Generative AI
By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp and Stefano Puntoni
Chatbots are now able to engage in sophisticated conversations with consumers. Due to the ‘black box’ nature of the algorithms, it is impossible to predict in advance how these conversations will unfold. Behavioral research provides little insight into potential safety... View Details
Keywords: Autonomy; Chatbots; New Technology; Brand Crises; Mental Health; Large Language Model; AI and Machine Learning; Behavior; Well-being; Technological Innovation; Ethics
De Freitas, Julian, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp, and Stefano Puntoni. "Chatbots and Mental Health: Insights into the Safety of Generative AI." Journal of Consumer Psychology 34, no. 3 (July 2024): 481–491.
- July 2024
- Article
How Artificial Intelligence Constrains Human Experience
By: A. Valenzuela, S. Puntoni, D. Hoffman, N. Castelo, J. De Freitas, B. Dietvorst, C. Hildebrand, Y.E. Huh, R. Meyer, M. Sweeney, S. Talaifar, G. Tomaino and K. Wertenbroch
Many consumption decisions and experiences are digitally mediated. As a consequence, consumer behavior is increasingly the joint product of human psychology and ubiquitous algorithms (Braun et al. 2024; cf. Melumad et al. 2020). The coming of age of Large Language... View Details
Keywords: Large Language Model; User Experience; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Risk and Uncertainty; Cost vs Benefits
Valenzuela, A., S. Puntoni, D. Hoffman, N. Castelo, J. De Freitas, B. Dietvorst, C. Hildebrand, Y.E. Huh, R. Meyer, M. Sweeney, S. Talaifar, G. Tomaino, and K. Wertenbroch. "How Artificial Intelligence Constrains Human Experience." Journal of the Association for Consumer Research 9, no. 3 (July 2024): 241–256.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Navigating Software Vulnerabilities: Eighteen Years of Evidence from Medium and Large U.S. Organizations
By: Raviv Murciano-Goroff, Ran Zhuo and Shane Greenstein
How prevalent are severe software vulnerabilities, how fast do software users respond to the availability of secure versions, and what determines the variance in the installation distribution? Using the largest dataset ever assembled on user updates, tracking server... View Details
Murciano-Goroff, Raviv, Ran Zhuo, and Shane Greenstein. "Navigating Software Vulnerabilities: Eighteen Years of Evidence from Medium and Large U.S. Organizations." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32696, July 2024.
- July–August 2024
- Article
The Middle Path to Innovation
By: Regina E. Herzlinger, Duke Rohlen, Ben Creo and Will Kynes
Too many companies are failing to innovate. One reason, say the authors, is the polarized approach companies take to innovation. At one end of the spectrum, corporate R&D efforts tend to focus on product refreshes and incremental line upgrades that generate modest... View Details
Herzlinger, Regina E., Duke Rohlen, Ben Creo, and Will Kynes. "The Middle Path to Innovation." Harvard Business Review 102, no. 4 (July–August 2024): 134–145.
- 2024
- Working Paper
AI Companions Reduce Loneliness
By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet K Uguralp, Zeliha O Uguralp and Puntoni Stefano
Chatbots are now able to engage in sophisticated conversations with consumers in the domain of relationships, providing a potential coping solution to widescale societal loneliness. Behavioral research provides little insight into whether these applications are... View Details
De Freitas, Julian, Ahmet K Uguralp, Zeliha O Uguralp, and Puntoni Stefano. "AI Companions Reduce Loneliness." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-078, June 2024.
- June 2024
- Supplement
Heritage Holding (A)
By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff
Pre-Abstract: Instructors should consider the timing of making videos available to students, as they may reveal key case details.
Abstract: The summer of 2022 marked a crucial period for Heritage Holding co-founders, Alex de Pfyffer and Ross Porter. The... View Details
Abstract: The summer of 2022 marked a crucial period for Heritage Holding co-founders, Alex de Pfyffer and Ross Porter. The... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Small Business; Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Business Education; Leadership Style; Leading Change; Business or Company Management; Problems and Challenges; Private Equity; Corporate Strategy; Business Model; North America
Ruback, Richard S., and Royce Yudkoff. "Heritage Holding (A)." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Supplement 224-723, June 2024.
- June 2024
- Supplement
Heritage Holding (B)
By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff
Pre-Abstract: Instructors should consider the timing of making videos available to students, as they may reveal key case details.
Abstract: The summer of 2022 marked a crucial period for Heritage Holding co-founders, Alex de Pfyffer and Ross Porter. The... View Details
Abstract: The summer of 2022 marked a crucial period for Heritage Holding co-founders, Alex de Pfyffer and Ross Porter. The... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Small Business; Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Business Education; Leadership Style; Leading Change; Business or Company Management; Problems and Challenges; Private Equity; Corporate Strategy; Business Model; North America
Ruback, Richard S., and Royce Yudkoff. "Heritage Holding (B)." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Supplement 224-724, June 2024.