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- July 2023
- Article
Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations
By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet
In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still...
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- June 2023
- Supplement
Applied Intuition (A)
By: Andy Wu
Applied Intuition CEO Qasar Younis provides an overview of the automotive industry and the role of simulation software in the development of autonomous vehicles.
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- June 2023
- Supplement
Applied Intuition (B)
By: Andy Wu
Applied Intuition CEO Qasar Younis shares his perspective on the company's growth opportunities, the future of the autonomy industry, and his personal observations on strategy and leadership in technology.
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- May–June 2023
- Article
Analytics for Marketers: When to Rely on Algorithms and When to Trust Your Gut
By: Fabrizio Fantini and Das Narayandas
Advanced analytics can help companies solve a host of management problems, including those related to marketing, sales, and supply-chain operations, which can lead to a sustainable competitive advantage. But as more data becomes available and advanced analytics are...
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- September 2022
- Article
The Limits of Inconspicuous Incentives
By: Leslie K. John, Hayley Blunden, Katherine Milkman, Luca Foschini and Bradford Tuckfield
Managers and policymakers regularly rely on incentives to encourage valued behaviors. While incentives are often successful, there are also notable and surprising examples of their ineffectiveness. Why? We propose a contributing factor may be that they are not...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Moral Thin-Slicing: Forming Moral Impressions from a Brief Glance
By: Julian De Freitas and Alon Hafri
Despite the modern rarity with which people are visual witness to moral transgressions involving
physical harm, such transgressions are more accessible than ever thanks to their availability on
social media and in the news. On one hand, the literature suggests that...
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Keywords:
Moral Judgement;
Thin Slices;
Social Media;
Fake News;
Misinformation;
Moral Sensibility;
Behavior;
News
- July 2022
- Case
Yinglan Tan: Scaling a Venture Capital Firm in Southeast Asia
By: Josh Lerner and Richard Zhu
Yinglan Tan considered the future of his young Singapore-based venture capital firm. On the one hand, the intuition that was behind the initial creation of Insignia in 2017 had been proven correct. The venture capital market in Southeast Asia had grown rapidly, driven...
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- 2022
- Chapter
Connecter les rêves
By: Hubert Joly and Mariana Arnaut
Trouver du sens dans son travail est plus que jamais vécu comme essentiel. L’entreprise, l’une des organisations humaines les plus capables d’innovation, a un rôle central à jouer face aux enjeux sociaux et environnementaux. Reste à déterminer quels principes peuvent...
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- April–June 2022
- Other Article
Commentary on 'Causal Decision Making and Causal Effect Estimation Are Not the Same... and Why It Matters'
There has been a substantial discussion in various methodological and applied literatures around causal inference; especially in the use of machine learning and statistical models to understand heterogeneity in treatment effects and to make optimal decision...
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- 2022
- Article
Open or Closed? Your Mind, Your Decision!
By: Gerald Zaltman
The marketing profession faces challenging times. The shelf life for decisions and the half-life of the knowledge used, are becoming shorter and shorter while the problems addressed are becoming messier. Fortunately, the emergence of what I call the “prosthetic age” is...
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- January 2022
- Background Note
Residual Income Valuation Model
By: Charles C.Y. Wang and Albert Shin
This note explains the residual income valuation model (RIM), how it relates to "traditional" valuation models, the intuition behind its use, and empirical research related to its value relevance. RIM is theoretically equivalent to the dividend discount model and the...
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- Article
Adaptive Machine Unlearning
By: Varun Gupta, Christopher Jung, Seth Neel, Aaron Roth, Saeed Sharifi-Malvajerdi and Chris Waites
Data deletion algorithms aim to remove the influence of deleted data points from trained models at a cheaper computational cost than fully retraining those models. However, for sequences of deletions, most prior work in the non-convex setting gives valid guarantees...
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- December 2021
- Article
Auctioneers Sometimes Prefer Entry Fees to Extra Bidders
By: Jiafeng Chen and Scott Duke Kominers
We investigate a market thickness–market power tradeoff in an auction setting with endogenous entry. We find that charging admission fees can sometimes dominate the benefit of recruiting additional bidders, even though the fees themselves implicitly reduce competition...
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- December 1, 2021
- Article
Do You Know How Your Teams Get Work Done?
By: Rohan Narayana Murty, Rajath B. Das, Scott Duke Kominers, Arjun Narayan, Suraj Srinivasan, Tarun Khanna and Kartik Hosanagar
In a research study at four Fortune 500 companies, when managers were asked about their teams’ work, on average they either did not know or could not remember 60% of the work their teams do. This is a major problem because it can lead to unrealistic digital...
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- Article
Behavioral and Neural Representations en route to Intuitive Action Understanding
By: Leyla Tarhan, Julian De Freitas and Talia Konkle
When we observe another person’s actions, we process many kinds of information—from how their body moves to the intention behind their movements. What kinds of information underlie our intuitive understanding about how similar actions are to each other? To address this...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?
By: Benjamin Enke, Uri Gneezy, Brian Hall, David Martin, Vadim Nelidov, Theo Offerman and Jeroen van de Ven
Despite decades of research on heuristics and biases, empirical evidence on the effect of large incentives—as present in relevant economic decisions—on cognitive biases is scant. This paper tests the effect of incentives on four widely documented biases: base rate...
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- March 2021
- Article
Assortment Rotation and the Value of Concealment
By: Kris J. Ferreira and Joel Goh
Assortment rotation—the retailing practice of changing the assortment of products offered to customers—has recently been used as a competitive advantage for both brick-and-mortar and online retailers. We focus on product categories where consumers may purchase multiple...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
First Law of Motion: Influencer Video Advertising on TikTok
By: Jeremy Yang, Juanjuan Zhang and Yuhan Zhang
This paper engineers an intuitive feature that is predictive of the causal effect of influencer video advertising on product sales. We propose the concept of m-score, a summary statistic that captures the extent to which a product is advertised in the most engaging...
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- October 2020
- Article
Collusion in Markets with Syndication
By: John William Hatfield, Scott Duke Kominers, Richard Lowery and Jordan M. Barry
Markets for IPOs and debt issuances are syndicated, in the sense that a bidder who wins a contract may invite losing bidders to join a syndicate that together fulfills the contract. We show that in markets with syndication, standard intuitions from industrial...
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Keywords:
Collusion;
Antitrust;
IPO Underwriting;
Syndication;
＂Repeated Games＂;
Markets;
Game Theory
- April 2020
- Article
Collective Emotions
By: Amit Goldenberg, David Garcia, Eran Halperin and James J. Gross
When analyzing situations in which multiple people are experiencing emotions together—whether the emotions are positive or negative and whether the situations are online or offline—we are intuitively drawn to the emotions of each individual in the situation. However,...
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