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- Faculty Publications (137)
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All HBS Web
(1,324)
- Faculty Publications (137)
- August 2006
- Article
Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance...
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Keywords:
Prejudice and Bias;
Fairness;
Managerial Roles;
Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques;
Equity;
Bonds;
Financial Markets;
Investment;
Capital Markets;
Borrowing and Debt;
Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?" Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1711–1730. (Section V of "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, contains additional analyses.)
- July 2006 (Revised March 2008)
- Case
Changan Automobile Co., Ltd.
By: Dennis Campbell and Donglin Xia
Chairman Yin Jiaxu must communicate that the company's extraordinary reported performance in 2002 reflects Changan's unique strategy within the competitive dynamics of China's automobile industry. Changan's 2002 annual report demonstrated an extraordinary level of...
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Keywords:
Financial Reporting;
Ethics;
Corporate Disclosure;
Media;
Business and Shareholder Relations;
Auto Industry;
China
Campbell, Dennis, and Donglin Xia. "Changan Automobile Co., Ltd." Harvard Business School Case 107-006, July 2006. (Revised March 2008.)
- 2006
- Working Paper
The Effect of Dividends on Consumption
By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock...
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Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 12288, June 2006. (First Draft in 2005.)
- September 2005 (Revised April 2007)
- Case
Spyder Active Sports - 2004
By: Belen Villalonga, Dwight B. Crane and James Quinn
David Jacobs founded a high-end ski apparel company in 1978. He successfully built and grew the company, establishing a major international brand that appealed to ski racers and other active skiers. In 1995, he sought external financing to support further growth of the...
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Keywords:
Private Ownership;
Private Equity;
Financial Liquidity;
Business Exit or Shutdown;
Valuation;
Brands and Branding;
Wealth;
Family Business;
Financing and Loans;
Globalization;
Apparel and Accessories Industry;
Sports Industry;
Colorado
Villalonga, Belen, Dwight B. Crane, and James Quinn. "Spyder Active Sports - 2004." Harvard Business School Case 206-027, September 2005. (Revised April 2007.)
- August 2005 (Revised April 2014)
- Teaching Note
Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns
By: Mihir A. Desai, Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen
What do international stocks contribute to the portfolio of a U.S. investor? How do currencies interact with stock price movements in determining the benefits of international diversification? This case helps students compare the risks and returns of foreign stock...
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Keywords:
Diversification;
International CAPM;
CAPM;
Home Bias;
Currency Risk;
Exchange Rate Risk;
International Stock Market Returns;
Financial Services Industry;
United States;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Stocks;
Financial Markets;
International Finance;
Investment Return;
Currency;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Emerging Markets;
Investment Portfolio;
United States;
Australia;
Canada;
China;
Germany;
India;
Japan;
United Kingdom
- 2005
- Working Paper
Aggregate Corporate Liquidity and Stock Returns
By: Robin Greenwood
Aggregate investment in cash and liquid assets as a share of total corporate investment is negatively related to subsequent U.S. stock market returns between 1947 and 2003. The share of cash in total investment is a more stable predictor of returns than scaled price...
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- March 2005
- Article
Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage
By: Robin Greenwood
I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be...
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Keywords:
Limits To Arbitrage;
Event Studies;
Demand Curves;
Portfolio Choice;
Framework;
Demand and Consumers;
Change;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Debt Securities;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Stocks;
Assets;
Investment Portfolio;
System Shocks;
Price;
Japan
Greenwood, Robin. "Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage." Journal of Financial Economics 75, no. 3 (March 2005): 607–649.
- 2005
- Working Paper
Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's...
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Keywords:
Managerial Roles;
Equity;
Market Timing;
Financial Instruments;
Investment Return;
Mathematical Methods
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, January 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
- September 2004
- Article
Decomposing the Persistence of International Equity Flows
By: Kenneth A. Froot and J. Tjornhom Donohue
- August 2004
- Article
Appearing and Disappearing Dividends: The Link to Catering Incentives
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We document a close link between fluctuations in the propensity to pay dividends and catering incentives. First, we use the methodology of Fama and French (J. Finan. Econ. (2001)) to identify a total of four distinct trends in the propensity to pay dividends...
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Keywords:
Dividends;
Payout Policy;
Catering;
Dividend Premium;
Investor Sentiment;
Investment Return;
Motivation and Incentives;
Trends;
Stocks;
Financial Services Industry
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Appearing and Disappearing Dividends: The Link to Catering Incentives." Journal of Financial Economics 73, no. 2 (August 2004): 271–288.
- March 2004 (Revised October 2013)
- Case
Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns
By: Mihir A. Desai, Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen
What do international stocks contribute to the portfolio of a U.S. investor? How do currencies interact with stock price movements in determining the benefits of international diversification? This case helps students compare the risks and returns of foreign stock...
View Details
Keywords:
Diversification;
International CAPM;
CAPM;
Home Bias;
Currency Risk;
Exchange Rate Risk;
International Stock Market Returns;
United States;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Stocks;
Financial Markets;
International Finance;
Investment Return;
Currency;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Emerging Markets;
Investment Portfolio;
Financial Services Industry;
United States;
Australia;
Canada;
China;
Germany;
India;
Japan;
United Kingdom
Desai, Mihir A., Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer, and Mark Veblen. "Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Case 204-141, March 2004. (Revised October 2013.)
- March 2004 (Revised May 2014)
- Supplement
Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns
By: Mihir A. Desai, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen
Spreadsheet to (9-204-141). Download only.
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- November 2003 (Revised September 2021)
- Case
Ivar Kreuger and the Swedish Match Empire
By: Geoffrey Jones and Ingrid Vargas
Taught in Evolution of Global Business. Globalization and corporate fraud are the central themes of this case on the international growth of Swedish Match in the interwar years. Between 1913 and 1932, Ivar Kreuger, known as the "Swedish Match King," built a small,...
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Keywords:
History;
International Finance;
Globalized Firms and Management;
Crime and Corruption;
Ethics;
Monopoly;
Business and Government Relations;
Sweden
Jones, Geoffrey, and Ingrid Vargas. "Ivar Kreuger and the Swedish Match Empire." Harvard Business School Case 804-078, November 2003. (Revised September 2021.)
- December 2002
- Article
The Persistence of Emerging Market Equity Flows
By: K. A. Froot and J. Donohue
Keywords:
Asset Pricing;
Equity Investment;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Behavioral Finance;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Market Transactions;
Performance Expectations;
Financial Services Industry
Froot, K. A., and J. Donohue. "The Persistence of Emerging Market Equity Flows." Emerging Markets Review 3, no. 4 (December 2002): 338–364. (Revised from NBER Working Paper no. 9241, HBS Working Paper no. 03-035, September 2002.)
- November 2002 (Revised June 2003)
- Case
NYSE vs. NASDAQ: International Competition
By: Estelle S. Cantillon and Tarun Khanna
Compares and contrasts the international strategies of the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ as they looked overseas for new sources of growth in the late 1990s.
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Cantillon, Estelle S., and Tarun Khanna. "NYSE vs. NASDAQ: International Competition." Harvard Business School Case 703-435, November 2002. (Revised June 2003.)
- September 2002 (Revised October 2002)
- Case
Corporate Inversions: Stanley Works and the Lure of Tax Havens
By: Mihir A. Desai, James R. Hines, Jr and Mark Veblen
In response to Stanley Work's announcement that it is moving to Bermuda--and the associated jump in market value--a major competitor sets out to determine how the market is valuing the consequences of moving to a tax haven and whether his company should invert to a tax...
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Keywords:
Financial Management;
Taxation;
Financial Strategy;
Credit Derivatives and Swaps;
International Finance;
Valuation;
Financial Markets;
Financial Statements;
United States
Desai, Mihir A., James R. Hines, Jr, and Mark Veblen. "Corporate Inversions: Stanley Works and the Lure of Tax Havens." Harvard Business School Case 203-008, September 2002. (Revised October 2002.)
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational...
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Keywords:
Price;
Financial Liquidity;
Trade;
Valuation;
Markets;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Equity;
Stock Shares;
Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." NBER Working Paper Series, 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- August 2001 (Revised April 2002)
- Case
Strategic Capital Management, LLC (A)
By: Mark L. Mitchell, Erik Stafford and Todd Pulvino
Strategic Capital Management, LLC, is a hedge fund that is planning to make financial investments in Creative Computers and Ubid. Creative Computers recently sold approximately 20% of its Internet auction subsidiary, Ubid, to the public at $15 per share. Ubid's stock...
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Keywords:
Risk and Uncertainty;
Business Subsidiaries;
Internet and the Web;
Investment Funds;
Price;
Performance Efficiency;
Capital Markets;
Auctions;
Investment Return;
Equity;
Planning;
Financial Services Industry
Mitchell, Mark L., Erik Stafford, and Todd Pulvino. "Strategic Capital Management, LLC (A)." Harvard Business School Case 202-024, August 2001. (Revised April 2002.)
- February 2001
- Article
The Portfolio Flows of International Investors
By: K. A. Froot, P. O'Connell and M. Seasholes
Keywords:
Asset Pricing;
Equity Investment;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Behavioral Finance;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Market Transactions;
Performance Expectations;
Personal Characteristics;
Financial Services Industry
Froot, K. A., P. O'Connell, and M. Seasholes. "The Portfolio Flows of International Investors." Journal of Financial Economics 59, no. 2 (February 2001): 151–193. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 6687 and HBS Working No. Paper 99-006, July 1998. Summarized in the NBER Reporter, 2000. Reprinted in International Capital Markets, R. Stulz and A. Karolyi, eds. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2003.)
- November 2000 (Revised May 2001)
- Case
State of South Carolina, The
This case presents the managerial dilemma faced by the treasurer of South Carolina in 1998. Until last year, the South Carolina state pension fund (with over $17 billion in assets) was barred by the state constitution from investing in equities. After the constitution...
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Keywords:
Risk and Uncertainty;
Capital Markets;
Investment Return;
Public Administration Industry;
South Carolina
Cohen, Randolph B., and Mark L. Mitchell. "State of South Carolina, The." Harvard Business School Case 201-061, November 2000. (Revised May 2001.)