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Publications

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      • Faculty Publications  (218)

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      • May 2022
      • Case

      Timnit Gebru: “SILENCED No More” on AI Bias and The Harms of Large Language Models

      By: Tsedal Neeley and Stefani Ruper
      Dr. Timnit Gebru—a leading artificial intelligence (AI) computer scientist and co-lead of Google’s Ethical AI team—was messaging with one of her colleagues when she saw the words: “Did you resign?? Megan sent an email saying that she accepted your resignation.” Heart...  View Details
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      Neeley, Tsedal, and Stefani Ruper. "Timnit Gebru: “SILENCED No More” on AI Bias and The Harms of Large Language Models." Harvard Business School Case 422-085, May 2022.
      • Article

      Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach

      By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...  View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Fundamental Valuation; Implied Cost Of Capital; International Equity Markets; Present Value; Investment Return; Equity; Markets; Global Range
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      Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Accounting Review 97, no. 2 (March 2022): 107–133.
      • January 2022
      • Article

      Why Is Corporate Virtue in the Eye of the Beholder? The Case of ESG Ratings

      By: Dane Christensen, George Serafeim and Anywhere Sikochi
      Despite the rising use of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ratings, there is substantial disagreement across rating agencies regarding what rating to give to individual firms. As what drives this disagreement is unclear, we examine whether a firm’s ESG...  View Details
      Keywords: ESG Ratings; Rating Agency Disagreement; ESG Disclosure; Corporate Social Responsibility; Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Disclosure
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      Christensen, Dane, George Serafeim, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Why Is Corporate Virtue in the Eye of the Beholder? The Case of ESG Ratings." Accounting Review 97, no. 1 (January 2022): 147–175.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

      By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
      A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit...  View Details
      Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
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      Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
      • November 2021
      • Article

      Ratings, Reviews, and the Marketing of New Products

      By: Itay P. Fainmesser, Dominique Olié Lauga and Elie Ofek
      We study how user-generated content (UGC) about new products impacts a firm's advertising and pricing decisions and the effect on profits and market dynamics. We construct a two-period model where consumers value quality and are heterogeneous in their taste for the new...  View Details
      Keywords: Online Reviews; Product Ratings; Social Networks; Word Of Mouth; Pricing; User-generated Content; Advertising; Product Marketing; Price; Consumer Behavior; Product Positioning
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      Fainmesser, Itay P., Dominique Olié Lauga, and Elie Ofek. "Ratings, Reviews, and the Marketing of New Products." Management Science 67, no. 11 (November 2021): 7023–7045.
      • November 2021
      • Article

      Venture Capitalists and COVID-19

      By: Paul A. Gompers, Will Gornall, Steven N. Kaplan and Ilya A. Strebulaev
      We survey over 1,000 institutional and corporate venture capitalists (VCs) at more than 900 different firms to learn how their decisions and investments have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We compare their survey answers to those provided by a large sample of...  View Details
      Keywords: Investment Decisions; COVID-19 Pandemic; Impact; Health Pandemics; Venture Capital; Investment; Decision Making; Surveys
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      Gompers, Paul A., Will Gornall, Steven N. Kaplan, and Ilya A. Strebulaev. "Venture Capitalists and COVID-19." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 56, no. 7 (November 2021).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The International Price of Remote Work

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Javier Cravino, Andres Drenik and Agostina Brinatti
      We use data from a large web-based job platform to study how the price of remote work is determined in a globalized labor market. In the platform, workers from around the world compete for jobs that can be done remotely. We document that, despite the global nature of...  View Details
      Keywords: Remote Work; Exchange Rates; Purchasing Power Parity; Offshoring And Outsourcing; Macroeconomics; Developing Countries and Economies; Wages; Trade; Globalization; Marketplace Matching; Currency Exchange Rate; Service Industry; Web Services Industry; Technology Industry
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Javier Cravino, Andres Drenik, and Agostina Brinatti. "The International Price of Remote Work." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29437, October 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara and Don Carmichael
      We exploit anonymized administrative data provided by a major fintech platform to investigate whether using alternative data to assess borrowers’ creditworthiness results in broader credit access. Comparing actual outcomes of the fintech platform’s model to...  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech Lending; Alternative Data; Machine Learning; Algorithm Bias; Finance; Technology; Financing and Loans; Data and Data Sets; Credit
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara, and Don Carmichael. "Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-024, October 2021.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Asymmetric Mispricing Information in Analysts’ Target Prices

      By: Jeremiah Green, John R. M. Hand and Anywhere Sikochi
      We study the mispricing information present in the target prices of U.S. and international analysts. We hypothesize that asymmetry in the value-relevance of the information that managers supply to analysts, combined with asymmetry in the incentives facing analysts to...  View Details
      Keywords: Analysts; Target Prices; Mispricing; Cost Of Equity; Valuation; Price; Cost; Analysis; Theory
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      Green, Jeremiah, John R. M. Hand, and Anywhere Sikochi. "The Asymmetric Mispricing Information in Analysts’ Target Prices." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-008, August 2021. (Revised April 2022.)
      • 2021
      • Article

      Decarbonizing Everything

      By: Alex Cheema-Fox, Bridget LaPerla, George Serafeim, David Turkington and Hui (Stacie) Wang
      We analyze how the use of different climate risk measures leads to different portfolio carbon outcomes and risk-adjusted returns. Our findings are synthesized in a rules-based investment framework, which selects a different type of climate metric across industries and...  View Details
      Keywords: Climate Risk; ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG Disclosure; ESG Disclosure Metrics; ESG Ratings; Investing; Investing For Impact; Investment Strategy; Environment; Decarbonization; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Environmental Management; Environmental Accounting; Investment; Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return
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      Cheema-Fox, Alex, Bridget LaPerla, George Serafeim, David Turkington, and Hui (Stacie) Wang. "Decarbonizing Everything." Financial Analysts Journal 77, no. 3 (2021): 93–108.
      • June 2021
      • Case

      Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment

      By: Luis M. Viceira, Emily R. McComb and Dean Xu
      This case examines modern endowment investment management through the lens of a leadership transition between Chief Investment Officers (CIOs). In March 2021, Paula Volent is about to step down as the CIO of the endowment of Bowdoin College after twenty-one years, and...  View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Banking; Growth Management; Investment Return; Capital Markets; Interest Rates; Competition; Cost Management; Risk Management; Financial Liquidity; Performance Evaluation
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      Viceira, Luis M., Emily R. McComb, and Dean Xu. "Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment." Harvard Business School Case 221-101, June 2021.
      • June 23, 2021
      • Article

      Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story

      By: Eva Ascarza
      When it comes to churn prevention, marketers traditionally start by identifying which customers are most likely to churn, and then running A/B tests to determine whether a proposed retention intervention will be effective at retaining those high-risk customers. While...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Retention; Churn; Targeting; Market Research; Marketing; Investment Return; Customers; Retention; Research
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      Ascarza, Eva. "Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (June 23, 2021).
      • June 2021 (Revised December 2021)
      • Case

      The Lunar Gateway, Moon vs. Mars, and the Political Governance of Space Activities

      By: Matthew C. Weinzierl and Mehak Sarang
      In 2017, the Trump Administration made a bold claim—that they would return the next man and the first woman to the lunar surface by 2024, this time to establish a sustainable presence to enable further exploration in the solar system. With the Artemis Program, NASA has...  View Details
      Keywords: Space; Space Economy; Aerospace; Nasa; Governance; Policy; International Relations; Infrastructure
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      Weinzierl, Matthew C., and Mehak Sarang. "The Lunar Gateway, Moon vs. Mars, and the Political Governance of Space Activities." Harvard Business School Case 721-059, June 2021. (Revised December 2021.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Currency Hedging: Managing Cash Flow Exposure

      By: Laura Alfaro, Maurici Mauricio and Liliana Varela
      Foreign currency derivative markets are among the largest in the world, yet their role in emerging markets is relatively understudied. We study firms' currency risk exposure and their hedging choices by employing a unique dataset covering the universe of FX derivatives...  View Details
      Keywords: FX Derivatives; Hedging; Currency; Cash Flow; Emerging Markets; Chile
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      Alfaro, Laura, Maurici Mauricio, and Liliana Varela. "Currency Hedging: Managing Cash Flow Exposure." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28910, June 2021.
      • May 2021
      • Teaching Plan

      Gera Developments: Leadership at a Crossroads

      By: Christina R. Wing and John Masko
      Teaching Plan for HBS Case No. 621-018. For decades, Gera Developments (Gera) was a boutique family-owned real estate development firm in Pune, India. But since 2000, managing director Rohit Gera had turned the company into a dynamic innovator in housing solutions for...  View Details
      Keywords: Buildings and Facilities; Business Growth and Maturation; Construction; Geographic Location; Global Strategy; Globalized Firms and Management; Housing; Leadership Style; Management Succession; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Family Ownership; Family and Family Relationships; Urban Development; Customization and Personalization; Real Estate Industry; Maharashtra; India; San Francisco
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      Wing, Christina R., and John Masko. "Gera Developments: Leadership at a Crossroads." Harvard Business School Teaching Plan 621-109, May 2021.
      • March 17, 2021
      • Other Article

      Beyond Pajamas: Sizing Up the Pandemic Shopper

      By: Ayelet Israeli, Eva Ascarza and Laura Castrillo
      A first look at how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted e-commerce apparel shopping in the US and the UK. Extensive analysis and interactive graphics utilizing millions of transactions.
      While the pandemic is still playing out, our preliminary investigations...  View Details
      Keywords: Retail; Retail Analytics; Consumer; Pandemic; COVID; COVID-19; Apparel; Ecommerce; E-commerce; Online Shopping; Online Apparel; Online Sales; Returns; CRM; Customer Retention; Customer Experience; Customer Value; Digital; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customers; Health Pandemics; Consumer Behavior; Customer Relationship Management; Online Technology; Behavior; Retail Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Technology Industry; United States; United Kingdom
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      Israeli, Ayelet, Eva Ascarza, and Laura Castrillo. "Beyond Pajamas: Sizing Up the Pandemic Shopper." Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (March 17, 2021).
      • March 2021
      • Technical Note

      Competitive Strategy in International Construction

      By: John D. Macomber and Emrah Ergelen
      Construction of buildings and infrastructure is one of the largest industries in the world in terms of volume. It is also one of the most physically risky, financially uncertain, and politically impacted. The industry is highly fragmented since there are few economies...  View Details
      Keywords: Construction; Infrastructure; Strategy; Marketing Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Strategic Planning; Global Range; Construction Industry
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      Macomber, John D., and Emrah Ergelen. "Competitive Strategy in International Construction." Harvard Business School Technical Note 221-074, March 2021.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure

      By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
      Foreign currency derivative markets are among the largest in the world, yet their role in emerging markets in particular, is relatively understudied. We study firms' currency risk exposure and their hedging choices by employing a unique dataset covering the universe of...  View Details
      Keywords: Foreign Currency Hedging; FX Derivatives; Foreign Currency Debt; Currency Mismatch; Trade Credit; Currency; Cash Flow; Emerging Markets
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      Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Calani, and Liliana Varela. "Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-096, March 2021.
      • January–February 2021
      • Article

      Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality

      By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
      We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both...  View Details
      Keywords: Accounting Quality; Earnings Quality; Stock Returns; Investment Strategy; Accounting; Business Earnings; Quality; Investment Return; Investment; Strategy
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      Chen, Wen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan, and George Serafeim. "Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 48, nos. 1-2 (January–February 2021): 70–101.
      • Article

      Research: The Cost of a Single U.S. Immigration Restriction

      By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury and Britta Glennon
      On June 22, 2020, President Trump passed an Executive Order drastically cutting the number of highly skilled international workers eligible for non-immigrant visas to the U.S. To quantify the impact of this policy, the authors examined the immediate change in stock...  View Details
      Keywords: Work Visas; H1-B; Restriction; Impact; Immigration; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Cost; Economy
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      Bahar, Dany, Prithwiraj Choudhury, and Britta Glennon. "Research: The Cost of a Single U.S. Immigration Restriction." Harvard Business Review (website) (January 22, 2021).
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