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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (1,239)
      • Faculty Publications  (164)

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
      We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries' supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence...  View Details
      Keywords: Swap Spreads; Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates; Financial Crisis; Financial Markets
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      Hanson, Samuel G., Aytek Malkhozov, and Gyuri Venter. "Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Case

      Founders First Capital Partners

      By: Brian Trelstad, Mel Martin and Amy Klopfenstein
      In June 2021, Kim T. Folsom, the founder and CEO of revenue-based financing firm Founders First Capital Partners (FFCP), must decide whether to issue another loan to OnShore Technology Group, an up-and-coming software validation company. FFCP provided revenue-based...  View Details
      Keywords: Finance; Financial Instruments; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Revenue; Capital; Financial Services Industry; North and Central America; United States
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      Trelstad, Brian, Mel Martin, and Amy Klopfenstein. "Founders First Capital Partners." Harvard Business School Case 323-013, October 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Perceptions about Monetary Policy

      By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
      We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from micro data on professional forecasters. The perceived rule varies significantly over time, with important consequences for monetary policy and bond markets. Over the monetary policy cycle, easings are...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Central Banking; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy; Interest Rates
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      Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30480, September 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Case

      Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?

      By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger
      Thomas de Dreux-Brézé, the Head of Strategy and Project Management at Rawbank Congo in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was perplexed as he reviewed annual adoption rates for the bank’s launch of Illico Cash 2.0. As the bank’s mobile money app, Illico Cash...  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech; Inflation; Deflation; Rural; Urban; Emerging Market; Mobile Technology; Finance; Money; Inflation and Deflation; Business Growth and Maturation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Demographics; Developing Countries and Economies; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Behavioral Finance; Currency; Banks and Banking; Commercial Banking; Financial Strategy; Rural Scope; Urban Scope; Innovation Strategy; Emerging Markets; Network Effects; Consumer Behavior; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Technology Adoption; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Congo, Democratic Republic of the
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Grace Headinger. "Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?" Harvard Business School Case 222-084, May 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register

      By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu
      We examine the consequences of monetary policy on racial disparities, focusing on the role of bank lending to firms through collateral and selection channels. Leveraging comprehensive loan-level data from the U.S. credit register (Y-14Q) of the Federal Reserve, we show...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission; Inequity; Credit Registry; Wealth; Collateral Channel; Selection; Racial Disparity; Racial Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Banks and Banking; Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banking Industry; United States
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      Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, and Camelia Minoiu. "Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-068, April 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Uniform Rate Setting and the Deposit Channel

      By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford
      Banks do not completely pass-through changes in short-term market rates to depositors. The deposit channel of monetary policy proposes that banks choose the rate of pass-through across their branches based on local deposit market concentration, which consequently...  View Details
      Keywords: Banks and Banking; Financial Markets; Interest Rates; Banking Industry
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      Begenau, Juliane, and Erik Stafford. "Uniform Rate Setting and the Deposit Channel." Working Paper, May 2022.
      • March 31, 2022
      • Article

      Two Approaches to Capping Health Care Prices

      By: Michael E. Chernew, Maximilian J. Pany and Leemore S. Dafny
      High health care prices for the privately-insured contribute to high premiums, which put downward pressure on wages, and induce employers to reduce benefit generosity and charge employees more for coverage. As the average annual premium for family coverage currently...  View Details
      Keywords: Price Caps; Health Care and Treatment; Price
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      Chernew, Michael E., Maximilian J. Pany, and Leemore S. Dafny. "Two Approaches to Capping Health Care Prices." Health Affairs Forefront (March 31, 2022).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Credit Rating Agency Market in Africa

      By: Saveshen Pillay and Anywhere Sikochi
      In this paper, we present the credit rating agency market on the continent of Africa as a potential research setting for accounting-related research. Largely unexplored in prior literature, Africa-based rating agencies provide access to information about a broad range...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Rating; Credit Rating Agencies; Regulation; Conflict Of Interest; Credit; Capital; Africa
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      Pillay, Saveshen, and Anywhere Sikochi. "The Credit Rating Agency Market in Africa." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-074, June 2022. (Journal of Financial Reporting, proposal accepted-in-principle.)
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Contractual Restrictions and Debt Traps

      By: Ernest Liu and Benjamin N. Roth
      Microcredit and other forms of small-scale finance have failed to catalyze entrepreneurship in developing countries. In these credit markets, borrowers and lenders often bargain over not only the interest rate but also implicit restrictions on types of investment. We...  View Details
      Keywords: Microfinance; Entrepreneurship; Developing Countries and Economies; Financing and Loans
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      Liu, Ernest, and Benjamin N. Roth. "Contractual Restrictions and Debt Traps." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 3 (March 2022): 1141–1182.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Markups to Financial Intermediation in Foreign Exchange Markets

      By: Jonathan Wallen
      On average from 2013 to 2020, foreign asset managers in net sold forward 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars. This forward sale of dollars hedges the currency mismatch of foreign investment in U.S. dollar assets. By accommodating this demand, U.S. and European banks earn an...  View Details
      Keywords: Foreign Exchange; Financial Intermediation; Arbitrage; Market Power; Regulations; Currency; Assets; Interest Rates; Banking Industry
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      Wallen, Jonathan. "Markups to Financial Intermediation in Foreign Exchange Markets." Working Paper, March 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Many Markets Make Good Neighbors: Multimarket Contact and Deposit Banking

      By: Jonathan Wallen and John Hatfield
      We investigate the relationship between the interest rates offered to consumers in a deposit banking market and the contact that banks in that market have with each other in other markets. We show, in a simple theoretical model, that such overlapping relationships...  View Details
      Keywords: Antitrust; Deposit Banking; Market Power; Multimarket Contact; Banks and Banking; Markets; Competition
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      Wallen, Jonathan, and John Hatfield. "Many Markets Make Good Neighbors: Multimarket Contact and Deposit Banking." Working Paper, January 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand
      In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the...  View Details
      Keywords: United States Treasury; Monetary Policy; Yield Curve; Central Banking; Interest Rates; Valuation
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates." Working Paper, January 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power

      By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford
      Claims about the market power of bank deposits in the banking literature are numerous and far reaching. Recently, a causal narrative has emerged in the banking literature: market power in bank deposits, measured as imperfect pass-through of short-term market rates on...  View Details
      Keywords: Bank Deposits; Market Power; Net Interest Margin (NIM); Banks and Banking; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Begenau, Juliane, and Erik Stafford. "Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-039, November 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara and Don Carmichael
      We exploit anonymized administrative data provided by a major fintech platform to investigate whether using alternative data to assess borrowers’ creditworthiness results in broader credit access. Comparing actual outcomes of the fintech platform’s model to...  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech Lending; Alternative Data; Machine Learning; Algorithm Bias; Finance; Information Technology; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Credit
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara, and Don Carmichael. "Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-024, October 2021.
      • August 2021
      • Article

      Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright
      Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes...  View Details
      Keywords: Conundrum; Investor Demand; Monetary Policy Transmission; Interest Rates
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      Hanson, Samuel G., David O. Lucca, and Jonathan H. Wright. "Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 136, no. 3 (August 2021): 1719–1781.
      • Article

      The Economic Consequences of Bankruptcy Reform

      By: Tal Gross, Ray Kluender, Feng Liu, Matthew J. Notowidigdo and Jialan Wang
      A more generous consumer bankruptcy system provides greater insurance against financial risks but may also raise the cost of credit. We study this trade-off using the 2005 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA), which increased the costs of...  View Details
      Keywords: Bankruptcy; Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention And Consumer Protection Act; Borrowing and Debt; Credit
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      Gross, Tal, Ray Kluender, Feng Liu, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, and Jialan Wang. "The Economic Consequences of Bankruptcy Reform." American Economic Review 111, no. 7 (July 2021): 2309–2341.
      • June 2021 (Revised June 2021)
      • Case

      Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment

      By: Luis M. Viceira, Emily R. McComb and Dean Xu
      This case examines modern endowment investment management through the lens of a leadership transition between Chief Investment Officers (CIOs). In March 2021, Paula Volent is about to step down as the CIO of the endowment of Bowdoin College after twenty-one years, and...  View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Banking; Growth Management; Investment Return; Capital Markets; Interest Rates; Competition; Cost Management; Risk Management; Financial Liquidity; Performance Evaluation
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      Viceira, Luis M., Emily R. McComb, and Dean Xu. "Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment." Harvard Business School Case 221-101, June 2021. (Revised June 2021.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      FinTech Lending and Cashless Payments

      By: Pulak Ghosh, Boris Vallée and Yao Zeng
      This study provides a new perspective to understand the rise and future potential of FinTech lending by linking it to the informational role of cashless payments. We uncover both theoretically and empirically a synergy between FinTech lending and cashless payments....  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech; Lending; Payments; Data Sharing; Financing and Loans; Information Technology; Banks and Banking; Business Model
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      Ghosh, Pulak, Boris Vallée, and Yao Zeng. "FinTech Lending and Cashless Payments." Working Paper, February 2021. (Revise and Resubmit at the Journal of Finance.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Institutional Corporate Bond Pricing

      By: Ishita Sen, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid and Varun Sharma
      We compile a rich dataset that links institutional investors' position level holdings with corporate bond characteristics and estimate demand elasticities with respect to critical sources of risk. Persistence in institutions' holdings provide us with an instrument to...  View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Bonds; Demand Systems; Insurance Companies; Mutual Funds; Liquidity; Bonds; Insurance; Investment Funds; Financial Liquidity
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      Sen, Ishita, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid, and Varun Sharma. "Institutional Corporate Bond Pricing." Working Paper, December 2020. (Revise and Resubmit, Review of Financial Studies.)
      • December 2020
      • Article

      Monetary Policy and Global Banking

      By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
      When central banks adjust interest rates, the opportunity cost of lending in local currency changes, but—in absence of frictions—there is no spillover effect to lending in other currencies. However, when equity capital is limited, global banks must benchmark domestic...  View Details
      Keywords: Global Banks; Monetary Policy Transmission; Cross-border Lending; Banks and Banking; Financial Markets; Global Range
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      Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "Monetary Policy and Global Banking." Journal of Finance 75, no. 6 (December 2020): 3055–3095.
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