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Publications

Publications

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    • Faculty Publications  (43)

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    • All HBS Web  (145)
      • Faculty Publications  (43)

      Instrumental Variables Remove Instrumental Variables →

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions

      By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
      We empirically analyze how managerial overrides to a commercial algorithm that forecasts demand and schedules labor affect store performance. We analyze administrative data from a large grocery retailer that utilizes a commercial algorithm to forecast demand and...  View Details
      Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Performance; Applications and Software; Management Skills; Management Practices and Processes; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • October–December 2022
      • Article

      Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

      By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
      Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed...  View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance

      By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
      We empirically analyze the effects of employee lateness and absenteeism on store performance by examining 25.5 million employee shift timecards covering more than 100,000 employees across more than 500 U.S. retail grocery store locations over a four year time period....  View Details
      Keywords: Absenteeism; Lateness; Scheduling; Performance Productivity; Employees; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, and Ananth Raman. "The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance." Working Paper, August 2022.
      • August, 2022
      • Article

      Changing Ingroup Boundaries: The Effect of Immigration on Race Relations in the U.S.

      By: Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
      How do social group boundaries evolve? Does the appearance of a new outgroup change the ingroup's perceptions of other outgroups? We introduce a conceptual framework of context-dependent categorization, in which exposure to one minority leads to recategorization of...  View Details
      Keywords: In-group-out-group Relations; Ingroup-outgroup Relations; Immigration; Race; Relationships; United States
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      Fouka, Vasiliki, and Marco Tabellini. "Changing Ingroup Boundaries: The Effect of Immigration on Race Relations in the U.S." American Political Science Review 116, no. 3 (August, 2022): 968–984. (Featured in the Boston Globe, Washington Post, and HBS Working Knowledge.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Transferable Skills? Founders as Venture Capitalists

      By: Paul A. Gompers and Vladimir Mukharlyamov
      In this paper we explore whether or not the experience as a founder of a venture capital-backed startup influences the performance of founders who become venture capitalists (VCs). We find that nearly 7% of VCs were previously founders of a venture-backed startup....  View Details
      Keywords: Founders; Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; Performance; Personal Development and Career; Success
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      Gompers, Paul A., and Vladimir Mukharlyamov. "Transferable Skills? Founders as Venture Capitalists." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29907, April 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      COVID-19, Government Performance, and Democracy: Survey Experimental Evidence from 12 Countries

      By: Michael Becher, Nicholas Longuet Marx, Vincent Pons, Sylvain Brouard, Martial Foucault, Vincenzo Galasso, Eric Kerrouche, Sandra León Alfonso and Daniel Stegmueller
      Beyond its immediate impact on public health and the economy, the COVID-19 pandemic has put democracy under stress. While a common view is that people should blame the government rather than the political system for bad crisis management, an opposing view is that...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Government Performance; Democracy; Health Pandemics; Government and Politics; Crisis Management; Public Opinion
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      Becher, Michael, Nicholas Longuet Marx, Vincent Pons, Sylvain Brouard, Martial Foucault, Vincenzo Galasso, Eric Kerrouche, Sandra León Alfonso, and Daniel Stegmueller. "COVID-19, Government Performance, and Democracy: Survey Experimental Evidence from 12 Countries." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29514, November 2021. (Revise and resubmit requested, The Journal of Politics.)
      • November 2021
      • Article

      The Effects of Retirement on Sense of Purpose in Life: Crisis or Opportunity?

      By: Ayse Yemiscigil, Nattavudh Powdthavee and Ashley V. Whillans
      Does retirement lead to an existential crisis or present an opportunity to experience a renewed sense of purpose in life? Prior research has documented a negative association between retirement and sense of purpose in life, suggesting that retirement could lead people...  View Details
      Keywords: Aging; Meaning; Socioeconomic Status; Life Experiences; Retirement; Well-being
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      Yemiscigil, Ayse, Nattavudh Powdthavee, and Ashley V. Whillans. "The Effects of Retirement on Sense of Purpose in Life: Crisis or Opportunity?" Psychological Science 32, no. 11 (November 2021): 1856–1864.
      • October 2021
      • Article

      And the Children Shall Lead: Gender Diversity and Performance in Venture Capital

      By: Paul A. Gompers and Sophie Calder-Wang
      With an overall lack of gender and ethnic diversity in the innovation sector documented in Gompers and Wang (2017), we ask the natural next question: Does increased diversity lead to better firm performances? In this paper, we attempt to answer this question using a...  View Details
      Keywords: Venture Capital; Diversity; Gender; Performance Improvement; Capital Markets
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      Gompers, Paul A., and Sophie Calder-Wang. "And the Children Shall Lead: Gender Diversity and Performance in Venture Capital." Journal of Financial Economics 142, no. 1 (October 2021): 1–22.
      • December 2020
      • Article

      Taking Innovation to the Streets: Micro-geography, Physical Structure and Innovation

      By: Maria P. Roche
      In this paper, we analyze how the physical layout of cities affects innovation by influencing the organization of knowledge exchange. We exploit a novel data set covering all Census Block Groups in the contiguous United States with information on innovation outcomes,...  View Details
      Keywords: Microgeography; Innovation; Street Infrastructure; Knowledge Exchange; Interactions; Geography; City; Innovation and Invention; Knowledge Sharing
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      Roche, Maria P. "Taking Innovation to the Streets: Micro-geography, Physical Structure and Innovation." Review of Economics and Statistics 102, no. 5 (December 2020): 912–928.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      The Targeting and Impact of Paycheck Protection Program Loans to Small Businesses

      By: Alexander Bartik, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, Christopher Stanton and Adi Sunderam
      The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) aimed to quickly deliver hundreds of billions of dollars of loans to small businesses, with the loans administered via private banks. In this paper, we use firm-level data to document the demand and supply of PPP funds. Using an...  View Details
      Keywords: Paycheck Protection Program; Targeting; Impact; Entrepreneurship; Health Pandemics; Small Business; Financing and Loans; Outcome or Result; United States
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      Bartik, Alexander, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, Christopher Stanton, and Adi Sunderam. "The Targeting and Impact of Paycheck Protection Program Loans to Small Businesses." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-021, August 2020.
      • Article

      The Importance of Being Causal

      By: Iavor I Bojinov, Albert Chen and Min Liu
      Causal inference is the study of how actions, interventions, or treatments affect outcomes of interest. The methods that have received the lion’s share of attention in the data science literature for establishing causation are variations of randomized experiments....  View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Observational Studies; Cross-sectional Studies; Panel Studies; Interrupted Time-series; Instrumental Variables
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., Albert Chen, and Min Liu. "The Importance of Being Causal." Harvard Data Science Review 2.3 (July 30, 2020).
      • July 2020
      • Article

      Higher Economic Inequality Intensifies the Financial Hardship of People Living in Poverty by Fraying the Community Buffer

      By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Barnabas Szaszi, Marcel Lukas, David Smerdon, Jaideep Prabhu and Elke U. Weber
      The current research investigates whether higher economic inequality disproportionately intensifies the financial hardship of low-income individuals. We propose that higher economic inequality increases financial hardship for low-income individuals by reducing their...  View Details
      Keywords: Economic Inequalty; Economy; Income; Equality and Inequality; Poverty; Civil Society or Community
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      Jachimowicz, Jon M., Barnabas Szaszi, Marcel Lukas, David Smerdon, Jaideep Prabhu, and Elke U. Weber. "Higher Economic Inequality Intensifies the Financial Hardship of People Living in Poverty by Fraying the Community Buffer." Special Issue on Racism in Action. Nature Human Behaviour 4, no. 7 (July 2020): 702–712.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Changing Ingroup Boundaries: The Effect of Immigration on Race Relations in the U.S.

      By: Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
      How do social group boundaries evolve? Does the appearance of a new outgroup change the ingroup's perceptions of other outgroups? We introduce a conceptual framework of context-dependent categorization, in which exposure to one minority leads to recategorization of...  View Details
      Keywords: In-group-out-group Relations; Immigration; Race; Attitudes; Boundaries; Prejudice and Bias
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      Fouka, Vasiliki, and Marco Tabellini. "Changing Ingroup Boundaries: The Effect of Immigration on Race Relations in the U.S." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-100, March 2020. (Accepted at American Political Science Review. Revised June 2021.)
      • 2019
      • Chapter

      The Consequences of Mandatory Corporate Sustainability Reporting

      By: Ioannis Ioannou and George Serafeim
      A key aspect of the governance process inside organizations and markets is the measurement and disclosure of important metrics and information. In this chapter, we examine the effect of sustainability disclosure regulations on firms’ disclosure practices and...  View Details
      Keywords: Mandatory Disclosure; Mandatory Reporting; Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility; Social Impact; Valuation; China; South Africa; Europe; Asia; Regulation; Corporate Disclosure; Integrated Corporate Reporting; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Corporate Governance; China; Denmark; Malaysia; South Africa
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      Ioannou, Ioannis, and George Serafeim. "The Consequences of Mandatory Corporate Sustainability Reporting." In The Oxford Handbook of Corporate Social Responsibility: Psychological and Organizational Perspectives, edited by Abagail McWilliams, Deborah E. Rupp, Donald S. Siegel, Günter K. Stahl, and David A. Waldman, 452–489. Oxford University Press, 2019.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Digital Experimentation and Startup Performance: Evidence from A/B Testing

      By: Rembrand Koning, Sharique Hasan and Aaron Chatterji
      Recent work argues that experimentation is the appropriate framework for entrepreneurial strategy. We investigate this proposition by exploiting the time-varying adoption of A/B testing technology, which has drastically reduced the cost of experimentally testing...  View Details
      Keywords: Experimentation; A/B Testing; Data-driven Decision-making; Entrepreneurship; Strategy; Business Startups; Information Technology; Performance
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      Koning, Rembrand, Sharique Hasan, and Aaron Chatterji. "Digital Experimentation and Startup Performance: Evidence from A/B Testing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-018, August 2019. (Revised September 2020. SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 3440291, August 2019)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions

      By: Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller
      We consider the identification of empirical models of supply and demand with imperfect competition. We show that a covariance restriction on unobserved demand and cost shocks resolves endogeneity and identifies the price parameter. We demonstrate how to employ this...  View Details
      Keywords: Demand Estimation; Identification; Endogeneity Bias; Covariance Restrictions; Ordinary Least Squares; Instrumental Variables
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      MacKay, Alexander, and Nathan H. Miller. "Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-051, October 2018. (Revised February 2023. Direct download.)
      • September 2018
      • Article

      Discretionary Task Ordering: Queue Management in Radiological Services

      By: Maria Ibanez, Jonathan R. Clark, Robert S. Huckman and Bradley R. Staats
      Work-scheduling research typically prescribes task sequences implemented by managers. Yet employees often have discretion to deviate from their prescribed sequence. Using data from 2.4 million radiological diagnoses, we find that doctors prioritize similar tasks...  View Details
      Keywords: Discretion; Scheduling; Queue; Healthcare; Learning; Experience; Decentralization; Operations; Service Operations; Service Delivery; Performance; Performance Effectiveness; Performance Efficiency; Performance Improvement; Performance Productivity; Decisions; Time Management; Cost vs Benefits; Health Industry
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      Ibanez, Maria, Jonathan R. Clark, Robert S. Huckman, and Bradley R. Staats. "Discretionary Task Ordering: Queue Management in Radiological Services." Management Science 64, no. 9 (September 2018): 4389–4407. (Working paper available here. Winner of the 2017 Best Paper Competition of the POMS College of Healthcare Operations Management. Featured in Forbes, Quartz, and Inc.)
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century

      By: Ufuk Akcigit, John Grigsby, Tom Nicholas and Stefanie Stantcheva
      This paper studies the effect of corporate and personal taxes on innovation in the United States over the 20th century. We use three new datasets: a panel of the universe of inventors who patent since 1920; a dataset of the employment, location, and patents of firms...  View Details
      Keywords: Taxation; Innovation and Invention; History; United States
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      Akcigit, Ufuk, John Grigsby, Tom Nicholas, and Stefanie Stantcheva. "Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 24982, September 2018. (Forthcoming in Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
      • August 2018 (Revised August 2019)
      • Technical Note

      A Note on Compensation

      By: Ethan Bernstein and Michael Norris
      This note provides an overview of the important terms, concepts, and frameworks that a manager should know about compensation—whether it be their own or that of an employee. Because compensation in practice is fraught with pitfalls, this note presents an overview of...  View Details
      Keywords: Compensation Design; Benefits; Perks; Variable Compensation; Compensation and Benefits; Executive Compensation; Stock Options; Profit Sharing; Job Design and Levels; Labor Unions; Wages; United States
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      Bernstein, Ethan, and Michael Norris. "A Note on Compensation." Harvard Business School Technical Note 419-020, August 2018. (Revised August 2019.)
      • 2017
      • Article

      Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

      By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
      The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management
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      Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
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