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- Faculty Publications (155)
- 2018
- Mimeo
Measuring Venezuela's Inflation Using Crowdsourcing and Mobile Phones
By: Alberto Cavallo
Cavallo, Alberto. "Measuring Venezuela's Inflation Using Crowdsourcing and Mobile Phones." 2018. Mimeo.
- November 2017 (Revised August 2018)
- Case
Fair Value Accounting at Noble Group (A)
By: Siko Sikochi, Suraj Srinivasan and Quinn Pitcher
Noble Group was a large commodities trader based in Hong Kong and listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. In 2012, Noble shifted its business strategy towards an asset-light model. Under this model, Noble did not own mines or farms to produce commodities but built...
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Sikochi, Siko, Suraj Srinivasan, and Quinn Pitcher. "Fair Value Accounting at Noble Group (A)." Harvard Business School Case 118-034, November 2017. (Revised August 2018.)
- 2017
- Report
Dismissed by Degrees: How Degree Inflation Is Undermining U.S. Competitiveness and Hurting America's Middle Class
By: Joseph B. Fuller and Manjari Raman
Fuller, Joseph B., and Manjari Raman. "Dismissed by Degrees: How Degree Inflation Is Undermining U.S. Competitiveness and Hurting America's Middle Class." Report, October 2017. (Published by Accenture, Grads of Life, Harvard Business School.)
- 2017
- Article
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...
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Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
- July 2017
- Article
Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in...
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Keywords:
Inflation Expectations;
Survey Experiment;
Rational Inattention;
Supermarkets;
Macroeconomics;
Household;
Inflation and Deflation;
Policy
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 3 (July 2017): 1–35.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors
By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang
This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country...
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Keywords:
Investment Portfolio;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Diversification;
Capital Markets;
Global Range
Viceira, Luis M., and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang. "Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-085, March 2017. (Revised July 2018.)
- February 2017 (Revised January 2018)
- Case
Womenomics in Japan
By: Boris Groysberg, Mayuka Yamazaki, Nobuo Sato and David Lane
This case profiles Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's vigorous attempts to revive Japan's economy, specifically by advocating for a larger role for women in the economy—not as a matter of social policy or gender equity per se, but as an essential element of any solution to...
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Keywords:
Gender Equality;
Japan;
Leadership;
Government-business Relations;
Shinzo Abe;
Economic Growth;
Aging Society;
Womenomics;
Abenomics;
Labor Market Discrimination;
Workplace Culture;
Women And Leadership;
Change Management;
Leading Change;
Gender;
Business and Government Relations;
Growth and Development;
Employment;
Working Conditions
Groysberg, Boris, Mayuka Yamazaki, Nobuo Sato, and David Lane. "Womenomics in Japan." Harvard Business School Case 417-002, February 2017. (Revised January 2018.)
- Article
How to Make the Other Side Play Fair: The Final-Offer Arbitration Challenge Gives Negotiators a Valuable New Tool
By: Max H. Bazerman and Daniel Kahneman
In legal disputes, contested insurance claims, and similarly adversarial negotiations, one party is likely to open with an inflated claim or a lowball offer. And if the other side’s position is unreasonable, it may make little sense to be reasonable yourself. But if...
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Bazerman, Max H., and Daniel Kahneman. "How to Make the Other Side Play Fair: The Final-Offer Arbitration Challenge Gives Negotiators a Valuable New Tool." Harvard Business Review 94, no. 9 (September 2016): 76–81.
- May 2016
- Supplement
2016 Update: Argentina Turns the Page
By: David E. Bell, Forest Reinhardt and Natalie Kindred
This brief case is a supplement to “Cresud and Argentina” (515-043) and “Note on Agriculture in Argentina” (515-069). Set in early 2016, it describes developments in Argentina under newly elected President Mauricio Macri, including the country’s return to international...
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Keywords:
Argentina;
" Cresud;
Agriculture;
Economic Reform;
Economic Policy;
Land Investment;
Macri;
Currency;
Agribusiness;
Diversification;
Economy;
Emerging Markets;
Credit;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Investment;
Business and Government Relations;
Government and Politics;
Inflation and Deflation;
Trade;
Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry;
Argentina;
Buenos Aires;
South America
Bell, David E., Forest Reinhardt, and Natalie Kindred. "2016 Update: Argentina Turns the Page." Harvard Business School Supplement 716-077, May 2016.
- Article
Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a...
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Keywords:
Inflation Expectations;
Bayesian Estimation;
Inflation and Deflation;
Information;
Household;
Behavior;
Argentina
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
- Spring 2016
- Article
The Billion Prices Project: Using Online Prices for Inflation Measurement and Research
By: Alberto Cavallo and Roberto Rigobon
New data-gathering techniques, often referred to as “Big Data” have the potential to improve statistics and empirical research in economics. In this paper we describe our work with online data at the Billion Prices Project at MIT and discuss key lessons for both...
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Keywords:
Billion Prices Project;
Online Scraped Data;
Online Price Index;
Economics;
Research;
Price;
Analytics and Data Science
Cavallo, Alberto, and Roberto Rigobon. "The Billion Prices Project: Using Online Prices for Inflation Measurement and Research." Journal of Economic Perspectives 30, no. 2 (Spring 2016): 151–178.
- 2016
- Chapter
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Chap. 10 in Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities, edited by Pietro Veronesi, 191–209. Wiley Handbooks in Financial Engineering and Econometrics. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2016.
- Article
How Beliefs about Self-creation Inflate Value in the Human Brain
By: Raphael Koster, Tali Sharot, Rachel Yuan, Benedetto De Martino, Michael I. Norton and Raymond J. Dolan
Humans have a tendency to overvalue their own ideas and creations. Understanding how these errors in judgement emerge is important for explaining suboptimal decisions, as when individuals and groups choose self-created alternatives over superior or equal ones. We show...
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Koster, Raphael, Tali Sharot, Rachel Yuan, Benedetto De Martino, Michael I. Norton, and Raymond J. Dolan. "How Beliefs about Self-creation Inflate Value in the Human Brain." Art. 473. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 9 (September 2015): 1–10.
- August 19, 2015
- Article
The Slow Decay and Quick Revival of Self-deception
By: Zoe Chance, Francesca Gino, Michael I. Norton and Dan Ariely
People demonstrate an impressive ability to self-deceive, distorting misbehavior to reflect positively on themselves—for example, by cheating on a test and believing that their inflated performance reflects their true ability. But what happens to self-deception when...
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Keywords:
Self-deception;
Cheating;
Self-enhancement;
Positive Illusions;
Motivated Reasoning;
Perception;
Behavior;
Ethics
Chance, Zoe, Francesca Gino, Michael I. Norton, and Dan Ariely. "The Slow Decay and Quick Revival of Self-deception." Art. 1075. Frontiers in Psychology 6 (August 19, 2015): 1–6.
- July–August 2015
- Article
The Secret of Singapore: Why Cuba Should Look to Lee Kuan Yew's Thriving City-State for Economic Inspiration
By: Debora L. Spar
Between 1965 and 1991, Singapore grew at an astonishing compound annual growth rate of nearly 14%. Critics of the island's performance accused its celebrated leader, Lee Kuan Yew, of thinly veiled tendencies toward communism and authoritarianism; they argued that the...
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Keywords:
Economic Models;
Communism;
Economic Policy;
Economic Reform;
Angel Investors;
Authoritarianism;
Economic Systems;
Economy;
Policy;
Government and Politics;
Singapore;
Cuba
Spar, Debora L. "The Secret of Singapore: Why Cuba Should Look to Lee Kuan Yew's Thriving City-State for Economic Inspiration." Foreign Policy 213 (July–August 2015).
- April 2015
- Tutorial
Introduction to International Macroeconomics
By: Laura Alfaro and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This tutorial is a web-based, interactive program which will provide students with an introduction to the basic principles of macroeconomics and international macroeconomics.
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- April 2015 (Revised January 2020)
- Case
Japan's Missing Arrow?
By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White
In late December 2014, Shinzo Abe was elected to another term as the prime minister of Japan. His re-election was largely interpreted as a vote of confidence for his economics policies, collectively referred to as "Abenomics." Comprised of three "arrows," including...
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Keywords:
Currency;
Bonds;
Government Bonds;
Government Debt;
Public Finance;
Quantitative Easing;
Stimulus;
Fiscal Policy;
Fiscal Deficits;
Debt Management;
Debt Reduction;
Abenomics;
Exchange Rate;
Exports;
Reform;
Economics;
Macroeconomics;
Policy;
Government Legislation;
Government and Politics;
Asia;
Japan
Alfaro, Laura, and Hilary White. "Japan's Missing Arrow?" Harvard Business School Case 715-050, April 2015. (Revised January 2020.)
- April 2015
- Teaching Note
International Macroeconomics — An Online Tutorial
By: Laura Alfaro and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This is the Teaching Note to accompany "International Macroeconomics", HBS Tutorial 715-702.
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- March–April 2015
- Article
The Almighty Ruble
By: Debora L. Spar
At 1 AM Moscow time on December 16, Russia's central bank announced a massive hike in the country's interest rate, from 10.5% to 17%. It's not clear how Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his colleagues could realistically have expected to achieve anything by hiking the...
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Spar, Debora L. "The Almighty Ruble." Foreign Policy 211 (March–April 2015).