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  • All HBS Web  (128)
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    • All HBS Web  (128)
      • Faculty Publications  (19)

      Inflation Risk Remove Inflation Risk →

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      • June 2021 (Revised June 2021)
      • Case

      Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment

      By: Luis M. Viceira, Emily R. McComb and Dean Xu
      This case examines modern endowment investment management through the lens of a leadership transition between Chief Investment Officers (CIOs). In March 2021, Paula Volent is about to step down as the CIO of the endowment of Bowdoin College after twenty-one years, and...  View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Banking; Growth Management; Investment Return; Capital Markets; Interest Rates; Competition; Cost Management; Risk Management; Financial Liquidity; Performance Evaluation
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      Viceira, Luis M., Emily R. McComb, and Dean Xu. "Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment." Harvard Business School Case 221-101, June 2021. (Revised June 2021.)
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

      By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,...  View Details
      Keywords: Consumption-based Habit Formation; Consumption Euler Equation; Time-varying Risk Premia; Inflation Dynamics; Bond-stock Correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics
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      Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Journal of Political Economy 128, no. 8 (August 2020): 3148–3185.
      • July 2018 (Revised July 2018)
      • Teaching Note

      Argentina Power—Don’t Cry for Me Argentina

      By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Sayiddah Fatima McCree
      Teaching Note for HBS No. 218-041. This case concerns a complex potential energy infrastructure investment in Argentina by a global conglomerate shortly after Mauricio Macri (“Macri”) became President of Argentina in 2015. The central issues are (i) why was a country...  View Details
      Keywords: Argentina; Argentine Exceptionalism; Infrastructure Finance; Investing; Finance; Inflation and Deflation; Government and Politics; Energy Generation; Infrastructure; Utilities Industry; Energy Industry; Financial Services Industry; Argentina; South America
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      Lietz, Nori Gerardo, and Sayiddah Fatima McCree. "Argentina Power—Don’t Cry for Me Argentina." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 219-010, July 2018. (Revised July 2018.)
      • 2017
      • Article

      Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

      By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
      The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management
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      Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors

      By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang
      This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country...  View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Capital Markets; Global Range
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      Viceira, Luis M., and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang. "Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-085, March 2017. (Revised July 2018.)
      • September 2014 (Revised May 2015)
      • Case

      The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity

      By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White
      After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113...  View Details
      Keywords: United Kingdom; Keynesian Multiplier; Inflation; Inflation Targeting; Government Spending; Government Intervention In The Markets; Monetary Policy; Financial Crisis Management; Austerity; Inequality; Public Finance; Government Finance; Macroeconomics; Economics; Government and Politics; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Crisis; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Growth; Business Cycles; Welfare; United Kingdom
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      Alfaro, Laura, Lakshmi Iyer, and Hilary White. "The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity." Harvard Business School Case 715-008, September 2014. (Revised May 2015.)
      • August 2014
      • Article

      What Makes Annuitization More Appealing?

      By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and Stephen P. Zeldes
      We conduct and analyze two large surveys of hypothetical annuitization choices. We find that allowing individuals to annuitize a fraction of their wealth increases annuitization relative to a situation where annuitization is an "all or nothing" decision. Very few...  View Details
      Keywords: Annuity; Pension; Retirement Income; Framing; Annuities; Retirement
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      Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, and Stephen P. Zeldes. "What Makes Annuitization More Appealing?" Special Issue on NBER Pensions. Journal of Public Economics 116 (August 2014): 2–16.
      • January – March 2012
      • Article

      Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

      By: Luis M. Viceira
      This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on...  View Details
      Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks
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      Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.
      • Article

      Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the...  View Details
      Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis." Annual Review of Financial Economics 3 (2011): 139–158.
      • March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
      • Case

      Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?

      By: Robin Greenwood and Benjamin Steiner
      Case explores the pricing of gold in 2011. Is the pricing justified or are we in a speculative bubble? What data are useful in determining a view on this question?  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Money; Asset Management; Investment; Price Bubble; Policy; Risk Management
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Benjamin Steiner. "Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?" Harvard Business School Case 211-095, March 2011. (Revised April 2011.)
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence...  View Details
      Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
      • December 2010
      • Article

      Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium...  View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Motivation and Incentives; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Framework; Problems and Challenges; Interest Rates; Cost; Developing Countries and Economies; Service Operations
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race." Journal of International Money and Finance 29, no. 8 (December 2010): 1706–1726. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 05-053 and NBER Working Paper No. 13131.)
      • 2010
      • Chapter

      The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors

      By: Luis M. Viceira and Ricardo Gimeno
      This article explores the demand for the euro for risk management purposes and the evidence of stock market integration in the euro area. We define a reserve currency as one that investors demand either because it helps them hedge real interest risk and inflation risk,...  View Details
      Keywords: Volatility; Inflation and Deflation; Capital Markets; Currency; Stocks; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management
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      Viceira, Luis M., and Ricardo Gimeno. "The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors." Chap. 4 in Spain and the Euro. The First Ten Years, 149–178. Madrid, Spain: Banco de España, 2010.
      • January 2010 (Revised October 2010)
      • Case

      Colombia: Strong Fundamentals, Global Risk

      By: Aldo Musacchio, Richard H. K. Vietor, Jonathan Schlefer and Carolina Camacho
      By mid-2009 Colombian President Alvaro Uribe had ended decades of virtual civil war and strengthened the business climate, but he faced tough economic challenges. Though he had instituted prominent market reforms and brought inflation down sharply, Colombia seemed...  View Details
      Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Growth; Macroeconomics; Trade; Global Strategy; Infrastructure; Business and Government Relations; Colombia
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      Musacchio, Aldo, Richard H. K. Vietor, Jonathan Schlefer, and Carolina Camacho. "Colombia: Strong Fundamentals, Global Risk." Harvard Business School Case 710-012, January 2010. (Revised October 2010.)
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

      By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
      Citation
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      Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 14701, February 2009.
      • 2005
      • Working Paper

      Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium...  View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Developing Countries and Economies; Mathematical Methods
      Citation
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 05-053, January 2005. (Revised March 2010. Also NBER Working Paper No. 13131.)
      • January 2004 (Revised June 2004)
      • Case

      Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (A)

      By: Kenneth A. Froot, Peter A. Hecht and Christopher Edward James Payton
      In 1997, the U.S. Treasury was deciding whether to proceed with a proposal to issue inflation-indexed bonds. This case explores the challenges facing innovation in the financial markets as the Treasury tries to determine whether to introduce Treasury...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation; Innovation; Federal Government; Securities; Debt Securities; Risk Management; Bonds; Investment Portfolio; Capital Markets; Inflation and Deflation; Government and Politics; Innovation and Invention; United States
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      Froot, Kenneth A., Peter A. Hecht, and Christopher Edward James Payton. "Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (A)." Harvard Business School Case 204-112, January 2004. (Revised June 2004.)
      • July 1986
      • Article

      Inflation, Uncertainty and Investment

      By: Carliss Y. Baldwin and R. S. Ruback
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Investment; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Baldwin, Carliss Y., and R. S. Ruback. "Inflation, Uncertainty and Investment." Journal of Finance 41, no. 3 (July 1986): 657–668.
      • November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
      • Case

      Science Technology Co.

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems...  View Details
      Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Science Technology Co." Harvard Business School Case 275-058, November 1974. (Revised May 1994.)
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