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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (123)
    • Faculty Publications  (16)

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    • All HBS Web  (123)
      • Faculty Publications  (16)

      Inflation Expectations Remove Inflation Expectations →

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      • March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
      • Case

      Reclaiming the Land of Purple: Purpl’s Mission to Unlock Finance in Lebanon

      By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger
      Karl Naim, Co-Founder and CEO of Purpl, embarked on a venture to lower remittance costs for his native Lebanon. Since October 2019, the Lebanese economy had entered a free fall as its banking sector collapsed and large swathes of its population were plunged into...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Startup; Fintech; Inflation; Deflation; Cross-border Frictions; Remittances; Business Startups; Diasporas; Financial Crisis; Money; Entrepreneurship; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Poverty; Financial Institutions; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Lebanon
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Grace Headinger. "Reclaiming the Land of Purple: Purpl’s Mission to Unlock Finance in Lebanon." Harvard Business School Case 222-078, March 2022. (Revised May 2022.)
      • 2017
      • Article

      Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

      By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
      The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management
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      Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
      • July 2017
      • Article

      Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
      Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Survey Experiment; Rational Inattention; Supermarkets; Macroeconomics; Household; Inflation and Deflation; Policy
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 3 (July 2017): 1–35.
      • Article

      Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
      When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
      • March–April 2015
      • Article

      The Almighty Ruble

      By: Debora L. Spar
      At 1 AM Moscow time on December 16, Russia's central bank announced a massive hike in the country's interest rate, from 10.5% to 17%. It's not clear how Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his colleagues could realistically have expected to achieve anything by hiking the...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Economy; Policy; Currency; Interest Rates; Sovereign Finance; Russia
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      Spar, Debora L. "The Almighty Ruble." Foreign Policy 211 (March–April 2015).
      • September 2014 (Revised May 2015)
      • Case

      The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity

      By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White
      After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113...  View Details
      Keywords: United Kingdom; Keynesian Multiplier; Inflation; Inflation Targeting; Government Spending; Government Intervention In The Markets; Monetary Policy; Financial Crisis Management; Austerity; Inequality; Public Finance; Government Finance; Macroeconomics; Economics; Government and Politics; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Crisis; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Growth; Business Cycles; Welfare; United Kingdom
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      Alfaro, Laura, Lakshmi Iyer, and Hilary White. "The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity." Harvard Business School Case 715-008, September 2014. (Revised May 2015.)
      • August 2014
      • Article

      What Makes Annuitization More Appealing?

      By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and Stephen P. Zeldes
      We conduct and analyze two large surveys of hypothetical annuitization choices. We find that allowing individuals to annuitize a fraction of their wealth increases annuitization relative to a situation where annuitization is an "all or nothing" decision. Very few...  View Details
      Keywords: Annuity; Pension; Retirement Income; Framing; Annuities; Retirement
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      Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, and Stephen P. Zeldes. "What Makes Annuitization More Appealing?" Special Issue on NBER Pensions. Journal of Public Economics 116 (August 2014): 2–16.
      • Article

      Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the...  View Details
      Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis." Annual Review of Financial Economics 3 (2011): 139–158.
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence...  View Details
      Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
      • Article

      Temporal View of the Costs and Benefits of Self-Deception

      By: Zoe Chance, Michael I. Norton, Francesca Gino and Dan Ariely
      Researchers have documented many cases in which individuals rationalize their regrettable actions. Four experiments examine situations in which people go beyond merely explaining away their misconduct to actively deceiving themselves. We find that those who exploit...  View Details
      Keywords: Hindsight Bias; Lying; Motivated Reasoning; Self-enhancement; Social Psychology; Perception; Performance Expectations
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      Chance, Zoe, Michael I. Norton, Francesca Gino, and Dan Ariely. "Temporal View of the Costs and Benefits of Self-Deception." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, no. S3 (September 13, 2011): 15655–15659.
      • Article

      Gross National Happiness As an Answer to the Easterlin Paradox?

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
      The Easterlin Paradox refers to the fact that happiness data are typically stationary in spite of considerable increases in income. This amounts to a rejection of the hypothesis that current income is the only argument in the utility function. We find that the...  View Details
      Keywords: Wealth and Poverty; Happiness; Employment; Income; Mathematical Methods; Welfare
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Robert MacCulloch. "Gross National Happiness As an Answer to the Easterlin Paradox?" Journal of Development Economics 86, no. 1 (April 2008).
      • April 2005
      • Article

      Partisan Social Happiness

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
      We use a new approach to study questions in political economy that relies on data on the subjective well-being of a large sample of people living in the OECD over the period 1975-1992. Controlling for the personal characteristics of the respondents, year and country...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Partisanship; Political Economy; Society; Happiness
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Robert MacCulloch. "Partisan Social Happiness." Review of Economic Studies 72, no. 2 (April 2005): 367–93.
      • November 2004
      • Article

      Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
      In the many years since their introduction, positive theories of inflation have rarely been tested. This paper documents a negative relationship between inflation and the welfare state (proxied by the parameters of the unemployment benefit program) that is to be...  View Details
      Keywords: Unemployment; Welfare State; Compensation and Benefits; Inflation and Deflation
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Robert MacCulloch. "Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker." Review of Economics and Statistics 86, no. 4 (November 2004): 911–23.
      • 1996
      • Article

      Limits on Interest Rate Rules in the IS Model

      By: William R. Kerr and Robert G. King
      There has been a substantial amount of research on interest rate rules. This literature finds that the feasibility and desirability of interest rate rules depends on the structure of the model used to approximate macroeconomic reality. We employ a series of...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Interest Rates; Price; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Performance Expectations
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      Kerr, William R., and Robert G. King. "Limits on Interest Rate Rules in the IS Model." Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 82, no. 2 (1996): 47–75.
      • January 1989 (Revised July 1991)
      • Case

      Bank for International Development, Software Case

      By: W. Carl Kester and Timothy A. Luehrman
      A hypothetical case in which an assistant treasurer of a supranational bank is asked to determine in which currencies it has been cheaper ex post to borrow. An integral part of the case is a Lotus 1-2-3 worksheet containing monthly data on yen and dollar interest...  View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Interest Rates; International Finance; Relationships; Currency; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Analytics and Data Science; Inflation and Deflation
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      Kester, W. Carl, and Timothy A. Luehrman. "Bank for International Development, Software Case." Harvard Business School Case 289-034, January 1989. (Revised July 1991.)
      • April 1977
      • Article

      Purchasing Power Gains on Debt: The Effect of Expected and Unexpected Inflation

      By: Robert S. Kaplan
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Inflation and Deflation
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      Kaplan, Robert S. "Purchasing Power Gains on Debt: The Effect of Expected and Unexpected Inflation." Accounting Review 52 (April 1977): 369–378.
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