Publications

2025
Working Paper

Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

By: Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco Vazquez

This paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a unique integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major... View Details

Keywords: Tariffs; Trade; Price; Inflation and Deflation

2025
Working Paper

Code-Washing: Evidence from Open-Source Blockchain Startups

By: Ofir Gefen, Daniel Rabetti, Yannan Sun and Che Zhang

This study examines startups' management of source code repositories, distinguishing authentic developers ("code-producers''), from those inflating activity to mislead investors ("code-washers''). Using global blockchain startup and GitHub data, we find that... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurial Finance; Open Source Distribution; Business Startups

SSRN

January 2025 (Revised April 2025)
Case

Doing Business in Cairo: Navigating a Path to Economic Resilience

By: A. Zelleke and Ahmed Dahawy

Egypt has long been a pivotal force in the Middle East and North Africa. Located at a crossroads of global trade routes, the country was a strategic partner for numerous regional and global powers. However, a substantial currency devaluation in 2016 brought many... View Details

Keywords: Business; Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Globalized Economies and Regions; International Relations; Emerging Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Culture; Economy; Country; Currency; Investment; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Egypt

Educators

December 2024
Article

Large Shocks Travel Fast

By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara

We document a sizeable increase in the frequency of price adjustments following the large energy shocks of 2022. We use a tractable New Keynesian model, calibrated to the pre-shock data, to interpret such a pattern. The calibration highlights the state-dependence of... View Details

Keywords: System Shocks; Price; Cost; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Institutions

November 2024
Article

Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge

By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov

We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Consumer Behavior; Personal Finance; Product Positioning

2024
Working Paper

Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy

By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam

We document that the Fed’s perceived monetary policy response to inflation shifted materially over the post-pandemic period. In forward-looking policy rules estimated from surveys of macroeconomic forecasters, the inflation coefficient rose significantly after liftoff... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Perception; Government Administration

2025
Working Paper

Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain

By: Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano

We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details

Keywords: Markups; Pricing; Price; Supply Chain; Inflation and Deflation; Cost

SSRN

2024
Working Paper

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer

In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Inflation and Deflation; Personal Finance

Register to Read

June 2024
Article

Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets

By: Alberto Cavallo

The Covid-19 pandemic led to changes in expenditure patterns that introduced significant bias in the measurement of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Using publicly-available data on card transactions, I updated the official CPI weights and re-calculated inflation... View Details

Keywords: COVID; Consumer Expenditures; CPI; Inflation; Consumer Behavior; Inflation and Deflation; Health Pandemics

March 2024 (Revised March 2025)
Case

Pakistan at 75: When Will the 'Nazuk Mor' End?

By: Meg Rithmire, Salaar A. Shaikh and Hong Zhang

In 2023, business leaders, politicians, and civil society were all describing Pakistan’s condition as “polycrisis.” The country faced decisions on elections after Imran Khan’s ouster and arrest, protests against the military’s involvement in politics and the crackdowns... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Government and Politics; Health Pandemics; Conflict and Resolution; Pakistan

Educators

March 2024
Article

Medicare Price Negotiation and Pharmaceutical Innovation Following the Inflation Reduction Act

By: Matthew Vogel, Pragya Kakani, Amitabh Chandra and Rena M. Conti

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate lower prices for some medicines with high Medicare spending. Using historical data from public and proprietary sources to apply the IRA's negotiation criteria retrospectively, we identify all drugs that... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Government Legislation; Health Care and Treatment; Negotiation; Price; Pharmaceutical Industry

January 2024
Article

Cost of Exempting Sole Orphan Drugs from Medicare Negotiation

By: Matthew Vogel, Olivia Zhao, William B. Feldman, Amitabh Chandra, Aaron S. Kesselheim and Benjamin N. Rome

Importance: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate prices for some high-spending drugs but exempts drugs approved solely for the treatment of a single rare disease.
Objective: To estimate Medicare spending and global... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Price; Health Industry

October 2023
Article

What Does the Inflation Reduction Act Mean for Patients and Physicians?

By: Amitabh Chandra and Benedic Ippolito

The debate around prescription drug measures in the recently passed U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which limit some patients’ out-of-pocket costs, has not fully addressed their effect on physicians and patients via their effect on payers. Reducing patients’ costs... View Details

Keywords: Government Legislation; Price; Health Care and Treatment

2023
Chapter

Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models

By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara

The New Keynesian framework implies that sluggish price adjustment results in a distorted allocation of resources. We use a simple model to quantify these unobservable distortions, using data that depict the price-setting behavior of firms, specifically the frequency... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Cost

2023
Working Paper

Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates

By: Max Miller, James Paron and Jessica Wachter

Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Debt Securities

May 2023
Case

Uruguay: South America's Singapore?

By: Richard Vietor

Uruguay, the richest country in Latin America and the only one that has not turned to the left, suffers from slow growth, high inflation and a weak education system. President Lacrolle Pou has two more years in office to reform these problems. View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Inflation and Deflation; Government Administration; Latin America; Uruguay

Educators

May 2023
Article

Decarbonizing Health Care: Engaging Leaders in Change

By: Vivian S. Lee, Kathy Gerwig, Emily Hough, Kedar Mate, Robert Biggio and Robert S. Kaplan

Health care leaders are often surprised to learn that their operations contribute significantly to a warming climate. In addition to their roles as responders to and victims of extreme weather events, health care organizations have an obligation to reduce... View Details

Keywords: Health Care; Decarbonization; Carbon Emissions; Net-zero Emissions; Climate Change; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry

2025
Working Paper

Turning Points in Inflation: A Structural Breaks Approach with Micro Data

By: Alberto Cavallo and Gastón García Zavaleta

We introduce a novel methodology for detecting inflation turning points that combines high-frequency, disaggregated price data with standard structural break techniques to provide policymakers with more precise and timely signals of inflation dynamics. The methodology... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price

March 2023
Supplement

Allianz Türkiye (C): Managing the 2017 Hail Storm

By: John D. Macomber and Fares Khrais

Allianz Turkey is a property casualty insurance company operating in a region experiencing increasing losses from natural catastrophe events related to climate change, for example hail, wildfire, and flooding. There are also substantial other natural catastrophe... View Details

Keywords: Insurance And Reinsurance; Natural Disasters; Turkey; Insurance; Climate Change; Analytics and Data Science; Insurance Industry; Financial Services Industry; Turkey