Faculty & Research

Publications

Publications

Filter Results : (87) Arrow Down

Show Results For

Inference Remove Inference →

Page 1 of 87 Results →

Are you looking for?

→ Search All HBS Web
  • April 2021
  • Article

Evaluating Firm-Level Expected-Return Proxies: Implications for Estimating Treatment Effects
By: Charles M.C. Lee, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
We introduce a parsimonious framework for choosing among alternative expected-return proxies (ERPs) when estimating treatment effects. By comparing ERPs’ measurement-error variances in the cross section and in time series, we provide new evidence on the relative...  View Details
Keywords: Implied Cost Of Capital; Expected Returns; Cost of Capital; Investment Return; Performance Evaluation
Related
  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Population Interference in Panel Experiments
By: Iavor I Bojinov, Kevin Wu Han and Guillaume Basse
The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit's outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in...  View Details
Keywords: Finite Population; Potential Outcomes; Dynamic Causal Effects; Mathematical Methods
Related
  • March 2021
  • Article

The Impact of the General Data Protection Regulation on Internet Interconnection
By: Ran Zhuo, Bradley Huffaker, KC Claffy and Shane Greenstein
The Internet comprises thousands of independently operated networks, where bilaterally negotiated interconnection agreements determine the flow of data between networks. The European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) imposes strict restrictions on...  View Details
Keywords: Personal Data; Privacy Regulation; Gdpr; Interconnection Agreements; Internet; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
Related
  • 2021
  • Article

Consumer Disclosure
By: Tami Kim, Kate Barasz and Leslie John
As technological advances enable consumers to share more information in unprecedented ways, today’s disclosure takes on a variety of new forms, triggering a paradigm shift in what “disclosure” entails. This review introduces two factors to conceptualize consumer...  View Details
Keywords: Disclosure; Passive Disclosure; Information; Online Technology; Consumer Behavior; Situation or Environment
Related
  • 2020
  • Article

Incorporating Interpretable Output Constraints in Bayesian Neural Networks
By: Wanqian Yang, Lars Lorch, Moritz Graule, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Finale Doshi-Velez
Domains where supervised models are deployed often come with task-specific constraints, such as prior expert knowledge on the ground-truth function, or desiderata like safety and fairness. We introduce a novel probabilistic framework for reasoning with such constraints...  View Details
Related
  • October 2020
  • Article

Overcoming Resource Scarcity: Consumers' Response to Gifts Intending to Save Time and Money
By: Alice Lee-Yoon, Grant Donnelly and A.V. Whillans
Consumers feel increasingly pressed for time and money. Gifts have the potential to reduce scarcity in recipients’ lives, yet little is known about how recipients perceive gifts given with the intention of saving them time or money. Across four studies (N=1,403), we...  View Details
Keywords: Scarcity; Status; Time; Gift Giving; Status and Position; Money; Attitudes; Emotions
Related
  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments
By: Iavor I Bojinov, David Simchi-Levi and Jinglong Zhao
In switchback experiments, a firm sequentially exposes an experimental unit to a random treatment, measures its response, and repeats the procedure for several periods to determine which treatment leads to the best outcome. Although practitioners have widely adopted...  View Details
Keywords: Switchback Experiments; Design; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
Related
  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Learning from Deregulation: The Asymmetric Impact of Lockdown and Reopening on Risky Behavior During COVID-19
By: Edward L. Glaeser, Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca and Benjamin T. Leyden
During the COVID-19 pandemic, states issued and then rescinded stay-at-home orders that restricted mobility. We develop a model of learning by deregulation, which predicts that lifting stay-at-home orders can signal that going out has become safer. Using restaurant...  View Details
Keywords: Covid-19; Lockdown; Reopening; Impact
Related
  • Article

The Importance of Being Causal
By: Iavor I Bojinov, Albert Chen and Min Liu
Causal inference is the study of how actions, interventions, or treatments affect outcomes of interest. The methods that have received the lion’s share of attention in the data science literature for establishing causation are variations of randomized experiments....  View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Observational Studies; Cross-sectional Studies; Panel Studies; Interrupted Time-series; Instrumental Variables
Related
  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Open Source Software and Global Entrepreneurship
By: Nataliya Langburd Wright, Frank Nagle and Shane Greenstein
Does more activity in open source lead to more entrepreneurial activity and, if so, how much, and in what direction? This study measures how participation on the GitHub open source platform affects the founding of new ventures globally. We estimate these effects using...  View Details
Keywords: Open Source Software; Github; Software; Entrepreneurship; Global Range; Development Economics
Related
  • June 2020
  • Article

In Generous Offers I Trust: The Effect of First-offer Value on Economically Vulnerable Behaviors
By: M. Jeong, J. Minson and F. Gino
Negotiation scholarship espouses the importance of opening a bargaining situation with an aggressive offer, given the power of first offers to shape concessionary behavior and outcomes. In our research, we identify a surprising consequence to this common prescription....  View Details
Keywords: Attribution; Interpersonal Interaction; Judgment; Social Interaction; Inference; Open Data; Open Materials; Preregistered; Negotiation Offer; Strategy; Behavior; Interpersonal Communication; Trust; Outcome or Result
Related
  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Research Subsidy Spillovers, Two Ways
By: Kyle Myers and Lauren Lanahan
We study how the outputs of research spill over technological and geographic space in the context of the U.S. Small Business Innovation Research program. We infer input-output links using text analyses and identify the marginal costs of producing patents using...  View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Small Business; Innovation and Invention; Patents
Related
  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective
By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard
In panel experiments, we randomly expose multiple units to different treatments and measure their subsequent outcomes, sequentially repeating the procedure numerous times. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that...  View Details
Keywords: Panel Data; Dynamic Causal Effects; Potential Outcomes; Finite Population; Nonparametric
Related
  • April 2020
  • Article

Regulatory Oversight, Causal Inference, and Safe and Effective Health Care Machine Learning
By: Ariel Dora Stern and W Nicholson Price, II
In recent years, the applications of Machine Learning (ML) in the health care delivery setting have grown to become both abundant and compelling. Regulators have taken notice of these developments and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has been engaging...  View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Causal Inference; Health Care and Treatment; Safety; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
Related
  • March 2020
  • Article

Diagnosing Missing Always at Random in Multivariate Data
By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Natesh S. Pillai and Donald B. Rubin
Models for analyzing multivariate data sets with missing values require strong, often assessable, assumptions. The most common of these is that the mechanism that created the missing data is ignorable—a twofold assumption dependent on the mode of inference. The first...  View Details
Keywords: Missing Data; Diagnostic Tools; Sensitivity Analysis; Hypothesis Testing; Missing At Random; Row Exchangeability; Data and Data Sets; Mathematical Methods
Related
  • 2020
  • Working Paper

A General Theory of Identification
By: Iavor Bojinov and Guillaume Basse
What does it mean to say that a quantity is identifiable from the data? Statisticians seem to agree on a definition in the context of parametric statistical models — roughly, a parameter θ in a model P = {Pθ : θ ∈ Θ} is identifiable if the mapping θ 7→ Pθ is injective....  View Details
Keywords: Identification; Econometric Models; Data and Data Sets; Theory
Related
  • 2020
  • Working Paper

From Sweetheart to Scapegoat: Brand Selfie-Taking Shapes Consumer Behavior
By: Reto Hofstetter, Gabriela Kunath and Leslie K. John
Increasingly, consumers are taking self-photos and marketers, eager to capitalize on this trend, have been asking consumers to take self-photos with brands (i.e., brand selfies). We suggest that consumer compliance with such requests sparks a self-inferential process...  View Details
Keywords: Brand Selfie; Photo-taking; Self-perception; Self-inferences; Self-brand Connection; Brands and Branding; Consumer Behavior; Perception
Related
  • 2019
  • Working Paper

The Impact of the General Data Protection Regulation on Internet Interconnection
By: Ran Zhuo, Bradley Huffaker, KC Claffy and Shane Greenstein
The Internet comprises thousands of independently operated networks, where bilaterally negotiated interconnection agreements determine the flow of data between networks. The European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) imposes strict restrictions on...  View Details
Keywords: Personal Data; Privacy Regulation; Gdpr; Interconnection Agreements; Internet; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; European Union
Related
  • November 2019
  • Article

Procedural Justice and the Risks of Consumer Voting
By: Tami Kim, Leslie John, Todd Rogers and Michael I. Norton
Firms are increasingly giving consumers the vote. Eight studies demonstrate that when firms empower consumers to vote, consumers infer a series of implicit promises—even in the absence of explicit promises. We identify three implicit promises to which consumers react...  View Details
Keywords: Consumer Empowerment; Procedural Justice; Promises; Customer Relationship Management; Voting; Perception; Fairness; Risk Management
Related
  • November 2019
  • Article

How Do Sales Efforts Pay Off? Dynamic Panel Data Analysis in the Nerlove-Arrow Framework
By: Doug J. Chung, Byungyeon Kim and Byoung G. Park
This paper evaluates the short- and long-term value of sales representatives’ detailing visits to different types of physicians. By understanding the dynamic effect of sales calls across heterogeneous physicians, we provide guidance on the design of optimal call...  View Details
Keywords: Nerlove-arrow Framework; Stock-of-goodwill; Dynamic Panel Data; Serial Correlation; Instrumental Variables; Sales Effectiveness; Detailing; Data and Data Sets; Sales; Analysis; Performance Effectiveness; Pharmaceutical Industry
Related

Are you looking for?

→ Search All HBS Web