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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (2,133)
      • Faculty Publications  (268)

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

      By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov
      Predictive model development is understudied despite its importance to modern businesses. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms) as the primary driver of model quality, the value of tools...  View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science
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      Yue, Daniel, Paul Hamilton, and Iavor Bojinov. "Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-029, December 2022.
      • December 7, 2022
      • Article

      Why Decentralized Crypto Platforms Are Weathering the Crash

      By: Shai Bernstein and Scott Duke Kominers
      In the past year, crypto markets dropped from $2.9 trillion in value to around $800 billion. In the wake of the collapse, crypto lenders and exchanges have been accused of fraud and other wrongdoing. What went wrong? One factor is competition. In theory, competition...  View Details
      Keywords: Crypto Economy; Cryptocurrency; Financial Complexity; Financial Crisis; Decentralization; Decentralized Markets; Decentralized Autonomous Organizations; Finance; Market Design; Financial Services Industry
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      Bernstein, Shai, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Why Decentralized Crypto Platforms Are Weathering the Crash." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (December 7, 2022).
      • 2022
      • Article

      OpenXAI: Towards a Transparent Evaluation of Model Explanations

      By: Chirag Agarwal, Satyapriya Krishna, Eshika Saxena, Martin Pawelczyk, Nari Johnson, Isha Puri, Marinka Zitnik and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      While several types of post hoc explanation methods have been proposed in recent literature, there is very little work on systematically benchmarking these methods. Here, we introduce OpenXAI, a comprehensive and extensible opensource framework for evaluating and...  View Details
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      Agarwal, Chirag, Satyapriya Krishna, Eshika Saxena, Martin Pawelczyk, Nari Johnson, Isha Puri, Marinka Zitnik, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "OpenXAI: Towards a Transparent Evaluation of Model Explanations." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2022).
      • November 2022
      • Case

      Ajax Health: A New Model for Medical Technology Innovation

      By: Regina E. Herzlinger and Ben Creo
      This case teaches key success factors for both startups and established medtech firms. It examines how to structure a firm to maximize financial returns. Medtech entrepreneur Duke Rohlen is proposing a new model for innovation and business growth. From 2007 to 2019,...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Success; Innovation Strategy; Mergers and Acquisitions; Market Entry and Exit; Financial Strategy; Business Model; Partners and Partnerships; Entrepreneurship; Private Equity; Technology Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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      Herzlinger, Regina E., and Ben Creo. "Ajax Health: A New Model for Medical Technology Innovation." Harvard Business School Case 323-043, November 2022.
      • November 2022
      • Case

      The Battle Among Channels for Marketing Pharmaceuticals: UpScript, Pharmacy Benefit Managers, and Direct-to-Consumer Sales

      By: Regina E. Herzlinger and Tiffany Farrell
      Can an online pharmacy both improve the quality and speed of care for patients who need branded drugs and stabilize profits for pharmaceutical manufacturers? UpScript, after years spent achieving legal and regulatory compliance and simultaneous technological innovation...  View Details
      Keywords: DTC; Internet and the Web; Marketing Channels; Customer Value and Value Chain; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Competitive Strategy; Service Delivery; Growth and Development Strategy; Pharmaceutical Industry; Health Industry; Retail Industry
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      Herzlinger, Regina E., and Tiffany Farrell. "The Battle Among Channels for Marketing Pharmaceuticals: UpScript, Pharmacy Benefit Managers, and Direct-to-Consumer Sales." Harvard Business School Case 323-031, November 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Case

      Star Magnolia Capital: Becoming Experts at Finding Experts

      By: Lauren Cohen, Hao Gao, River Ewing and Grace Headinger
      Shinya Deguchi, Founder and Managing Partner of Star Magnolia Capital, a Shanghai-based multi-family office (MFO), considered how to convince a new prospective family that the MFO’s endowment model approach would best suit their needs. In recent decades, there has been...  View Details
      Keywords: China; Asia; Family Office; Shanghai; Financial Industry; Asset Management; Financial Instruments; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Investment; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Human Capital; Family Business; Financial Services Industry; China; Shanghai
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      Cohen, Lauren, Hao Gao, River Ewing, and Grace Headinger. "Star Magnolia Capital: Becoming Experts at Finding Experts." Harvard Business School Case 223-038, October 2022.
      • June 2022
      • Article

      A New Initiative to Track HIV Resource Allocation and Costs

      By: Ryan McBain, AK Nandakumar, Michael Ruffner, Carlyn Mann, Mai Hijazi, Susanna Baker, Linden Morrison, Kalipso Chalkidou, Shufang Zhang, Iris Semini, Fern Terris-Prestholt, Steven Forsythe, Sarah Byakika, Joshua Musinguzi and Robert S. Kaplan
      In early 2020, several global health institutions – including the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS); United States Agency for International Development; and Office of the Global AIDS Coordinator at...  View Details
      Keywords: Activity Based Costing; HIV; Cost; Health Care; Healthcare; Health Care and Treatment; Activity Based Costing and Management; Resource Allocation; Health Industry; Africa
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      McBain, Ryan, AK Nandakumar, Michael Ruffner, Carlyn Mann, Mai Hijazi, Susanna Baker, Linden Morrison, Kalipso Chalkidou, Shufang Zhang, Iris Semini, Fern Terris-Prestholt, Steven Forsythe, Sarah Byakika, Joshua Musinguzi, and Robert S. Kaplan. "A New Initiative to Track HIV Resource Allocation and Costs." Bulletin of the World Health Organization 100, no. 6 (June 2022): 358–358A.
      • Working Paper

      Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials

      By: Marcella Alsan, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein and Heidi L. Williams
      This article examines the consequences and causes of low enrollment of Black patients in clinical trials. We develop a simple model of similarity-based extrapolation that predicts that evidence is more relevant for decision-making by physicians and patients when it...  View Details
      Keywords: Representation; Racial Disparity; Health Testing and Trials; Race; Equality and Inequality; Innovation and Invention; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Alsan, Marcella, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein, and Heidi L. Williams. "Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30575, October 2022. (Revise and resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
      • Fall 2022
      • Article

      China's Political Economy and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Security Dilemma Dynamics

      By: Margaret Pearson, Meg Rithmire and Kellee Tsai
      Contrary to expectations that economic interdependence might lessen security conflict between China and the U.S. and its allies, much of the contestation between China and several OECD countries has focused on firms and economic links. This paper explains the...  View Details
      Keywords: Globalized Markets and Industries; Government and Politics; Information Technology; China
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      Pearson, Margaret, Meg Rithmire, and Kellee Tsai. "China's Political Economy and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Security Dilemma Dynamics." International Security 47, no. 2 (Fall 2022): 135–176.
      • August 2022 (Revised December 2022)
      • Case

      Iluméxico: For Every Family to Have Power

      By: Brian Trelstad, Isa Oliveres and Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago
      In 2022, Manuel Wiechers, the CEO of Iluméxico, a for-profit social enterprise that provided off-grid solar energy services in rural Mexico, was finalizing his presentation for the company’s upcoming board meeting. In the 12 years since Wiechers had co-founded...  View Details
      Keywords: Social Entrepreneurship; Social Enterprise; Energy; Energy Policy; Energy Generation; Energy Sources; Growth Management; Business and Government Relations; Equity; Internet and the Web; Business Model; Energy Industry; Mexico; Latin America
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      Trelstad, Brian, Isa Oliveres, and Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago. "Iluméxico: For Every Family to Have Power." Harvard Business School Case 323-026, August 2022. (Revised December 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Pricing Power in Advertising Markets: Theory and Evidence

      By: Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro, Frank Yang and Ali Yurukoglu
      Existing theories of media competition imply that advertisers will pay a lower price in equilibrium to reach consumers who multi-home across competing outlets. We generalize and extend this theoretical result and test it using data from television and social media...  View Details
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      Gentzkow, Matthew, Jesse M. Shapiro, Frank Yang, and Ali Yurukoglu. "Pricing Power in Advertising Markets: Theory and Evidence." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30278, July 2022.
      • June 2022 (Revised October 2022)
      • Background Note

      Digital Commerce and Delivery: Preparing Food and Retail Value Chains for a 50-50 World

      By: William R. Kerr, Daniel O'Connor, Paige Boehmcke and Will Ensor
      Increasing digitalization of grocery retail and quick commerce reveals insights about managing complex supply chains at scale and shifting revenue streams from product sales to data monetization. How are the roles of retailers changing? What happens if marginal cost...  View Details
      Keywords: Grocery Delivery; Grocery; Digitalization; Fulfillment; Delivery; Supply Chain; Disruption; Food; Supply Chain Management; Market Design; Trends; Value Creation; Goods and Commodities; Customer Value and Value Chain; Digital Transformation; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; China
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      Kerr, William R., Daniel O'Connor, Paige Boehmcke, and Will Ensor. "Digital Commerce and Delivery: Preparing Food and Retail Value Chains for a 50-50 World." Harvard Business School Background Note 822-108, June 2022. (Revised October 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Article

      Exploring Counterfactual Explanations Through the Lens of Adversarial Examples: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis.

      By: Martin Pawelczyk, Chirag Agarwal, Shalmali Joshi, Sohini Upadhyay and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As machine learning (ML) models become more widely deployed in high-stakes applications, counterfactual explanations have emerged as key tools for providing actionable model explanations in practice. Despite the growing popularity of counterfactual explanations, a...  View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning Models; Counterfactual Explanations; Adversarial Examples; Mathematical Methods
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      Pawelczyk, Martin, Chirag Agarwal, Shalmali Joshi, Sohini Upadhyay, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Exploring Counterfactual Explanations Through the Lens of Adversarial Examples: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis." Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 25th (2022).
      • March 2022
      • Case

      Pakistan Rising: Bazaar's Growth Story (A)

      By: Paul A. Gompers and Gamze Yucaoglu
      The case opens in September 2021 as Hamza Jawaid and Saad Jangda, co-founders of Bazaar technologies (Bazaar), the Pakistani high growth B2B e-commerce marketplace, are contemplating whether the year-and-a half old startup should also venture into offering financing to...  View Details
      Keywords: B2B; Business Model; Emerging Markets; For-Profit Firms; Strategy; Digital Platforms; Information Technology; Value Creation; Globalization; Competition; Expansion; Profit; Resource Allocation; Diversification; Corporate Strategy; Pakistan
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      Gompers, Paul A., and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Pakistan Rising: Bazaar's Growth Story (A)." Harvard Business School Case 822-098, March 2022.
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

      By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
      Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless...  View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods
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      Menchetti, Fiammetta, and Iavor Bojinov. "Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models." Annals of Applied Statistics 16, no. 1 (March 2022): 414–435.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Disagreement Problem in Explainable Machine Learning: A Practitioner's Perspective

      By: Satyapriya Krishna, Tessa Han, Alex Gu, Javin Pombra, Shahin Jabbari, Steven Wu and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As various post hoc explanation methods are increasingly being leveraged to explain complex models in high-stakes settings, it becomes critical to develop a deeper understanding of if and when the explanations output by these methods disagree with each other, and how...  View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods
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      Krishna, Satyapriya, Tessa Han, Alex Gu, Javin Pombra, Shahin Jabbari, Steven Wu, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "The Disagreement Problem in Explainable Machine Learning: A Practitioner's Perspective." Working Paper, 2022.
      • February 2022
      • Case

      NFX Capital and Moov Technologies

      By: Scott Duke Kominers and Nicole Tempest Keller
      In July 2019, James Currier, a general partner at San Francisco-based NFX Ventures, was considering a seed stage investment of $1.5 million in Moov Technologies, a B2B marketplace for used industrial equipment. NFX was a venture capital firm focused on seed-stage...  View Details
      Keywords: Venture Capital; Network Effects; Marketplace Matching; Digital Platforms; Market Design; Applications and Software; Semiconductor Industry; Financial Services Industry; San Francisco
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      Kominers, Scott Duke, and Nicole Tempest Keller. "NFX Capital and Moov Technologies." Harvard Business School Case 822-045, February 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?

      By: Leemore S. Dafny, Kate Ho and Edward Kong
      Drug copayment coupons to reduce patient cost-sharing have become nearly ubiquitous for high-priced brand-name prescription drugs. Medicare bans such coupons on the grounds that they are kickbacks that induce utilization, but they are commonly used by...  View Details
      Keywords: Prescription Drugs; Coupons; Impact; Health Care and Treatment; Markets; Price; Spending; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States
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      Dafny, Leemore S., Kate Ho, and Edward Kong. "How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29735, February 2022.
      • January 2022 (Revised August 2022)
      • Case

      Hello Heart: The Next Generation of Chronic Disease Management Apps

      By: Ariel D. Stern and Danielle Golan
      Hello Heart, a hypertension management app debated whether to go deep and cover other heart conditions, or to expand its solution to other chronic conditions.  View Details
      Keywords: Health; Health Care and Treatment; Information Technology; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Analysis; Business Startups; Transition; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customer Satisfaction; Decision Making; Demographics; Design; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Technological Innovation; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Launch; Product Design; Product Development; Business Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Customization and Personalization; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Model; Strategy; Applications and Software; Health Industry; Technology Industry; Israel; United States
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      Stern, Ariel D., and Danielle Golan. "Hello Heart: The Next Generation of Chronic Disease Management Apps." Harvard Business School Case 622-061, January 2022. (Revised August 2022.)
      • January 2022
      • Case

      Somatus: Value-Based Kidney Care (A)

      By: Ariel D. Stern, Robert S. Huckman and Sarah Mehta
      When Dr. Ikenna Okezie founded Somatus, a value-based kidney care provider, his goal had been nothing short of transforming kidney care delivery in the United States. Rather than relying on dialysis, a costly and intensive treatment for late-stage kidney disease, the...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Disruption; Entrepreneurship; Health; Health Care and Treatment; Health Disorders; Medical Specialties; Innovation and Invention; Disruptive Innovation; Management; Strategy; Business Strategy; Value; Value Creation; Health Industry; United States; Virginia
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      Stern, Ariel D., Robert S. Huckman, and Sarah Mehta. "Somatus: Value-Based Kidney Care (A)." Harvard Business School Case 622-009, January 2022.
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