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    • All HBS Web  (146)
      • Faculty Publications  (28)

      Fundamental Valuation Remove Fundamental Valuation →

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      • Article

      Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach

      By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...  View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Fundamental Valuation; Implied Cost Of Capital; International Equity Markets; Present Value; Investment Return; Equity; Markets; Global Range
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      Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Accounting Review 97, no. 2 (March 2022): 107–133.
      • May 2020 (Revised November 2021)
      • Supplement

      Valuing Peloton

      By: E. Scott Mayfield
      Peloton Interactive, a well-known unicorn in the connected fitness space, had gone public with a market capitalization of over $8.0 billion. In the weeks following its public debut, Peloton’s stock price fell by over 25%. Taylor Knox, a stock analyst and enthusiastic...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Disruptive Innovation; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Price; Valuation; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
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      Mayfield, E. Scott. "Valuing Peloton." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 220-717, May 2020. (Revised November 2021.)
      • May 2020 (Revised October 2021)
      • Case

      Valuing Peloton

      By: E. Scott Mayfield
      Peloton Interactive, a well-known venture-capital-backed unicorn in the connected fitness space, recently had gone public with a market capitalization of over $8.0 billion. However, in the weeks following its public debut, Peloton’s stock price had fallen by over 25%....  View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Public Equity; Initial Public Offering; Disruptive Innovation; Business Strategy; Valuation; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; United States
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      Mayfield, E. Scott. "Valuing Peloton." Harvard Business School Case 220-060, May 2020. (Revised October 2021.)
      • June 2018
      • Teaching Note

      The Transformation of Microsoft

      By: C. Fritz Foley and F. Katelynn Boland
      Teaching Note for HBS No. 218-048. In early 2015, Amy Hood, CFO of Microsoft, and the rest of the senior leadership team faced a set of fundamental choices. The firm had opportunities to serve customers in ways that would be associated with higher growth but lower...  View Details
      Keywords: Growth; Corporate Finance; Valuation; Growth Management; Communication Strategy; Transformation; Information Technology Industry; Computer Industry; United States
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      Foley, C. Fritz, and F. Katelynn Boland. "The Transformation of Microsoft." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 218-140, June 2018.
      • October 2017
      • Case

      The Transformation of Microsoft

      By: C. Fritz Foley, E. Scott Mayfield and F. Katelynn Boland
      In early 2015, Amy Hood, CFO of Microsoft, and the rest of the senior leadership team faced a set of fundamental choices. The firm had opportunities to serve customers in ways that would be associated with higher growth but lower margin. Some of these opportunities...  View Details
      Keywords: Growth; Corporate Finance; Valuation; Growth Management; Communication Strategy; Transformation; Information Technology Industry; Computer Industry; United States
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      Foley, C. Fritz, E. Scott Mayfield, and F. Katelynn Boland. "The Transformation of Microsoft." Harvard Business School Case 218-048, October 2017.
      • Article

      Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates

      By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan
      We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of...  View Details
      Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Joos, Peter R., Joseph D. Piotroski, and Suraj Srinivasan. "Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates." Journal of Financial Economics 121, no. 3 (September 2016): 645–663.
      • Article

      The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach

      By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected...  View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return
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      Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
      • Article

      Search-Based Peer Firms: Aggregating Investor Perceptions Through Internet Co-Searches

      By: Charles M.C. Lee, Paul Ma and Charles C.Y. Wang
      Applying a "co-search" algorithm to Internet traffic at the SEC's EDGAR website, we develop a novel method for identifying economically-related peer firms and for measuring their relative importance. Our results show that firms appearing in chronologically adjacent...  View Details
      Keywords: Peer Firm; EDGAR Search Traffic; Revealed Preference; Co-search; Industry Classification; Perception; Internet and the Web; Investment
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      Lee, Charles M.C., Paul Ma, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Search-Based Peer Firms: Aggregating Investor Perceptions Through Internet Co-Searches." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 2 (May 2015): 410–431.
      • 2014
      • Working Paper

      Search-Based Peer Firms: Aggregating Investor Perceptions Through Internet Co-Searches

      By: Charles M.C. Lee, Paul Ma and Charles C.Y. Wang
      Applying a "co-search" algorithm to Internet traffic at the SEC's EDGAR web-site, we develop a novel method for identifying economically-related peer firms and for measuring their relative importance. Our results show that firms appearing in chronologically adjacent...  View Details
      Keywords: Peer Firm; EDGAR Search Traffic; Revealed Preference; Co-search; Industry Classification; Analytics and Data Science; Internet and the Web; Mathematical Methods; Corporate Finance
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      Lee, Charles M.C., Paul Ma, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Search-Based Peer Firms: Aggregating Investor Perceptions Through Internet Co-Searches." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-048, November 2012. (Revised September 2013, March 2014, June 2014, July 2014.)
      • March 2011
      • Article

      Accounting Scholarship That Advances Professional Knowledge and Practice

      By: Robert S. Kaplan
      Recent accounting scholarship has used statistical analysis on asset prices, financial reports and disclosures, laboratory experiments, and surveys of practice. The research has studied the interface among accounting information, capital markets, standard setters, and...  View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Asset Pricing; Risk Management; Surveys; Capital Markets; Measurement and Metrics; Valuation; Fair Value Accounting; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Financial Reporting
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      Kaplan, Robert S. "Accounting Scholarship That Advances Professional Knowledge and Practice." Accounting Review 86, no. 2 (March 2011).
      • January 2011
      • Case

      The Risk-Reward Framework at Morgan Stanley Research

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and David Lane
      The case describes the Risk-Reward framework that Morgan Stanley analysts use as a systematic approach to communicate a broader range of fundamental insights about a company rather than the traditional single point estimates. The goal of the framework is to focus the...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Risk Management; Business Processes; Research; Valuation
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and David Lane. "The Risk-Reward Framework at Morgan Stanley Research." Harvard Business School Case 111-011, January 2011.
      • 2011
      • Teaching Note

      Juner New Materials: On the Road to IPO (TN)

      By: F. Warren McFarlan, Donglin Xia, Ning Jia and Ziqian Zhao
      Juner New Materials (Juner) is a private China-based company that develops, produces, and distributes modified plastic compounds. Founded in 1995 by female serial entrepreneur Xiaomin Chen, Juner has exhibited strong performance and growth potential in the past fifteen...  View Details
      Keywords: Emerging Markets; Entrepreneurship; Financial Statements; IPO; Valuation; Women Executives; China; Plastics; China
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      McFarlan, F. Warren, Donglin Xia, Ning Jia, and Ziqian Zhao. "Juner New Materials: On the Road to IPO (TN)." Tsinghua University Teaching Note, 2011.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Accounting Scholarship that Advances Professional Knowledge and Practice

      By: Robert S. Kaplan
      Recent accounting scholarship has used statistical analysis on asset prices, financial reports and disclosures, laboratory experiments, and surveys of practice. The research has studied the interface among accounting information, capital markets, standard setters, and...  View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Business Education; Information; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Risk Management; Measurement and Metrics; Business Processes; Performance Improvement; Practice
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      Kaplan, Robert S. "Accounting Scholarship that Advances Professional Knowledge and Practice." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-043, October 2010.
      • July 2010 (Revised August 2021)
      • Supplement

      Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships (CW)

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Albert W. Sheen
      After booming for more than five years, the global shipping (maritime) industry experienced a dramatic crash in late 2008 as the global financial system froze and the global economy slid into recession. Ship charter rates (revenue) fell by as much as 90% causing prices...  View Details
      Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Capital Markets; Cash Flow; Financial Liquidity; Banks and Banking; Price; Price Bubble; Contracts; Crisis Management; Market Transactions; Valuation; Shipping Industry
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Albert W. Sheen. "Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 211-701, July 2010. (Revised August 2021.)
      • June 2010 (Revised August 2021)
      • Case

      Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Albert Sheen
      After booming for more than five years, the global shipping (maritime) industry experienced a dramatic crash in late 2008 as the global financial system froze and the global economy slid into recession. Ship charter rates (revenue) fell by as much as 90% causing prices...  View Details
      Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; Financial Crisis; Capital Markets; Financial Liquidity; International Finance; Globalized Markets and Industries; Valuation; Banking Industry; Shipping Industry; Germany
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Albert Sheen. "Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships." Harvard Business School Case 210-058, June 2010. (Revised August 2021.)
      • 2009
      • Simulation

      Finance Simulation: M&A in Wine Country: No. 3289.

      By: Timothy A. Luehrman and W. Carl Kester
      In this simulation, students play the role of CEO at one of three publicly-traded wine producers: Starshine, Bel Vino, or International Beverage. Each player evaluates merger and/or acquisition opportunities among the three companies and then determines reservation...  View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Negotiation; Valuation; Value Creation; Food and Beverage Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry
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      Luehrman, Timothy A., and W. Carl Kester. "Finance Simulation: M&A in Wine Country: No. 3289." Simulation and Teaching Note. Watertown, MA: Harvard Business Publishing, 2009. Electronic.
      • November – December 2007
      • Article

      Fundamentally Flawed Indexing

      By: Andre F. Perold
      A new theory of finance is being advanced as providing definitive proof that holding stocks in proportion to their market capitalizations is an inferior investment strategy. The claim is that capitalization weighting necessarily invests more in overvalued stocks and...  View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Capital Markets; Financial Strategy; Stocks; Financial Management; Valuation
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      Perold, Andre F. "Fundamentally Flawed Indexing." Financial Analysts Journal 63, no. 6 (November–December 2007). (Winner of Graham and Dodd Best Perspectives Award For excellence in financial writing​.)
      • August 2000 (Revised July 2002)
      • Background Note

      Fundamental Enterprise Valuation: Advantage Horizon

      By: Carliss Y. Baldwin
      A technical note that defines advantage horizon.  View Details
      Keywords: Valuation; Business Ventures
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      Baldwin, Carliss Y. "Fundamental Enterprise Valuation: Advantage Horizon." Harvard Business School Background Note 801-128, August 2000. (Revised July 2002.)
      • August 2000 (Revised July 2002)
      • Background Note

      Fundamental Enterprise Valuation: Capital Expenditures (CAPEX)

      By: Carliss Y. Baldwin
      A technical note that defines capital expenditures (CAPEX).  View Details
      Keywords: Valuation; Business Ventures; Capital; Spending
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      Baldwin, Carliss Y. "Fundamental Enterprise Valuation: Capital Expenditures (CAPEX)." Harvard Business School Background Note 801-123, August 2000. (Revised July 2002.)
      • August 2000 (Revised July 2002)
      • Background Note

      Fundamental Enterprise Valuation: Earnings

      By: Carliss Y. Baldwin
      A technical note that defines earnings.  View Details
      Keywords: Valuation; Business Ventures; Profit
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      Baldwin, Carliss Y. "Fundamental Enterprise Valuation: Earnings." Harvard Business School Background Note 801-124, August 2000. (Revised July 2002.)
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