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- 2022
- Working Paper
Perceptions about Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from micro data on professional forecasters. The perceived rule varies significantly over time, with important consequences for monetary policy and bond markets. Over the monetary policy cycle, easings are...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance
By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
We empirically analyze the effects of employee lateness and absenteeism on store performance by examining 25.5 million employee shift timecards covering more than 100,000 employees across more than 500 U.S. retail grocery store locations over a four year time period....
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- August 8, 2022
- Article
Hate Crime Increases with Minoritized Group Rank
By: Mina Cikara, Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
People are on the move in unprecedented numbers within and between countries. How does demographic change affect local intergroup dynamics? In complement to accounts that emphasize stereotypical features of groups as determinants of their treatment, we propose the...
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Keywords:
Prejudice;
Minority;
Hate Crimes;
Reference Dependence;
Prejudice and Bias;
Attitudes;
Demographics
- 2022
- Working Paper
Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about COVID
By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? A 2020 U.S. survey of beliefs about the lethality of COVID reveals that the elderly underestimate, and the young overestimate, their own risks, and that people with more health...
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- Winter 2022
- Article
Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted
The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about...
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- July 2022
- Article
The Developmental Origins and Behavioral Consequences of Attributions for Inequality
By: Antonya Marie Gonzalez, Lucia Macchia and Ashley V. Whillans
Attributions, or lay explanations for inequality, have been linked to inequality-relevant behavior. In adults and children, attributing inequality to an individual rather than contextual or structural causes is linked to greater support for economic inequality and less...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Scope 3 Carbon Emissions
By: George Serafeim and Gladys Vélez Caicedo
For most organizations, the vast amount of carbon emissions occur in their supply chain and in the post-sale processing, usage, and end of life treatment of a product, collectively labelled scope 3 emissions. In this paper, we train machine learning algorithms on 15...
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- May 2022
- Supplement
Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (B)
By: Navid Mojir and Gamze Yucaoglu
Borusan Cat is an international distributor of Caterpillar heavy machines. In 2021, it had been three years since Ozgur Gunaydin (CEO) and Esra Durgun (Director of Strategy, Digitization, and Innovation) started working on Muneccim, the company’s predictive AI tool....
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- May 2022
- Supplement
Maestro Pizza (B): The Competition Awakens
By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
Maestro pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of...
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Keywords:
Competitive Strategy;
Competitive Advantage;
Competition;
Market Entry and Exit;
Emerging Markets;
Business Startups;
Corporate Entrepreneurship;
Product Positioning;
Disruption;
Disruptive Innovation;
Advertising;
Advertising Campaigns;
Social Media;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Crisis Management;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Brands and Branding;
Product Development;
Production;
Service Delivery;
Business Growth and Maturation;
Financial Statements;
Cost Management;
Analysis;
Quality;
Performance Consistency;
Customer Satisfaction;
Profit;
Family Ownership;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Saudi Arabia;
Middle East
- May 2022
- Supplement
Maestro Pizza (C): Taking the Fight Outside
By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
Maestro pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of...
View Details
Keywords:
Competitive Strategy;
Competitive Advantage;
Competition;
Market Entry and Exit;
Emerging Markets;
Business Startups;
Corporate Entrepreneurship;
Product Positioning;
Disruption;
Disruptive Innovation;
Advertising;
Advertising Campaigns;
Social Media;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Crisis Management;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Brands and Branding;
Product Development;
Production;
Service Delivery;
Business Growth and Maturation;
Financial Statements;
Cost Management;
Analysis;
Quality;
Performance Consistency;
Customer Satisfaction;
Profit;
Family Ownership;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Middle East;
Saudi Arabia
- May 2022
- Case
Maestro Pizza: Coming in Hot!
By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
Maestro Pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of...
View Details
Keywords:
Competitive Strategy;
Competitive Advantage;
Competition;
Market Entry and Exit;
Emerging Markets;
Business Startups;
Corporate Entrepreneurship;
Product Positioning;
Disruption;
Disruptive Innovation;
Advertising;
Advertising Campaigns;
Social Media;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Crisis Management;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Brands and Branding;
Product Development;
Production;
Service Delivery;
Business Growth and Maturation;
Financial Statements;
Cost Management;
Analysis;
Quality;
Performance Consistency;
Customer Satisfaction;
Profit;
Family Ownership;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Middle East;
Saudi Arabia
- April 2022
- Article
AI Insurance: How Liability Insurance Can Drive the Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Health Care
By: Ariel Dora Stern, Avi Goldfarb, Timo Minssen and W. Nicholson Price II
Despite enthusiasm about the potential to apply artificial intelligence (AI) to medicine and health care delivery, adoption remains tepid, even for the most compelling technologies. In this article, the authors focus on one set of challenges to AI adoption: those...
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- April 2022
- Article
Predictable Financial Crises
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...
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- April 2022
- Article
The Past Is Prologue? Venture-Capital Syndicates' Collaborative Experience and Start-Up Exits
By: Dan Wang, Emily Cox Pahnke and Rory McDonald
Past research has produced contradictory insights into how prior collaboration between organizations—their relational embeddedness—impacts collective collaborative performance. We theorize that the effect of relational embeddedness on collaborative success is...
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- March 2022
- Case
Auto Mag (Abridged)
By: David E. Bell
A young HBS graduate purchases a publisher of specialty magazines that advertises second hand cars, boats, trucks, etc. The magazines carry photographs and a brief description of each article for sale. The company faces the problem of deciding on how many magazines to...
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- March 2022 (Revised July 2022)
- Module Note
Prediction & Machine Learning
This note provides an introduction to machine learning for an introductory data science course. The note begins with a description of supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. Then, the note provides a brief explanation of the difference between traditional...
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- Article
Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)
By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli
An inherent risk of algorithmic personalization is disproportionate targeting of individuals from certain groups (or demographic characteristics such as gender or race), even when the decision maker does not intend to discriminate based on those “protected”... View Details
- March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
- Case
Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)
By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco
In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and...
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Keywords:
Compensation;
Collaboration;
Executive Search Firms;
Consulting Firms;
Compensation and Benefits;
Restructuring;
Human Resources;
Human Capital;
Management Practices and Processes;
Organizational Culture;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Social and Collaborative Networks;
Recruitment;
Selection and Staffing;
Talent and Talent Management;
Consulting Industry;
Employment Industry;
Asia;
Europe;
Latin America;
Middle East;
North and Central America;
South America;
Oceania
- March 2022
- Supplement
Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (B)
By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco
In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and...
View Details
Keywords:
Compensation;
Collaboration;
Executive Search Firms;
Consulting Firms;
Compensation and Benefits;
Restructuring;
Human Resources;
Human Capital;
Management Practices and Processes;
Organizational Culture;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Social and Collaborative Networks;
Recruitment;
Selection and Staffing;
Talent and Talent Management;
Consulting Industry;
Employment Industry;
Asia;
Europe;
Latin America;
Middle East;
North and Central America;
South America;
Oceania
- Article
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...
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