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    • All HBS Web  (3,174)
      • Faculty Publications  (992)

      Forecasting and Prediction Remove Forecasting and Prediction →

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      • 2023
      • Article

      Conduit Incentives: Eliciting Cooperation from Workers Outside of Managers' Control

      By: Susanna Gallani
      Can managers use monetary incentives to elicit cooperation from workers they cannot reward for their efforts? I study “conduit incentives,” an innovative incentive design, whereby managers influence bonus-ineligible workers’ effort by offering bonus-eligible employees...  View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Behavior Modification; Peer Monitoring; Persistence Of Performance Improvements; Crowding Out; Implicit Incentives; Compensation; Healthcare; Social Pressure; Image Motivation; Incentives; Motivation; Performance; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Compensation and Benefits; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Organizational Culture; Health Industry; California
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      Gallani, Susanna. "Conduit Incentives: Eliciting Cooperation from Workers Outside of Managers' Control." Accounting Review 93, no. 3 (2023): 1–28.
      • May 2023
      • Article

      Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency

      By: Zoë B. Cullen and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson
      The public discourse around pay transparency has focused on the direct effect: how workers seek to rectify newly-disclosed pay inequities through renegotiations. The question of how wage-setting and hiring practices of the firm respond in equilibrium has received...  View Details
      Keywords: Pay Transparency; Online Labor Market; Privacy; Wage Gap; Corporate Disclosure; Wages; Negotiation
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      Cullen, Zoë B., and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson. "Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency." Econometrica 91, no. 3 (May 2023): 765–802. (Lead Article.)
      • April 21, 2023
      • Article

      When Scenario Planning Fails

      By: Kalle Heikkinen, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila and Eemil Rupponen
      How can organizations perform scenario planning when they are hit by shocks outside of leaders’ field of vision? Interviews with Nordic executives, who experienced both the Covid-19 pandemic and were in close proximity to Russia as the country invaded Ukraine, can...  View Details
      Keywords: Planning; Crisis Management; Organizational Structure; Forecasting and Prediction; System Shocks; Organizational Change and Adaptation
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      Heikkinen, Kalle, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila, and Eemil Rupponen. "When Scenario Planning Fails." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (April 21, 2023).
      • April 12, 2023
      • Article

      Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World

      By: Das Narayandas and Arijit Sengupta
      Why are some firms better and faster than others at adapting their use of customer data to respond to changing or uncertain marketing conditions? A common thread across faster-acting firms is the use of AI models to predict outcomes at various stages of the customer...  View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Competitive Advantage
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      Narayandas, Das, and Arijit Sengupta. "Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (April 12, 2023).
      • April 2023
      • Article

      The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences

      By: Armin Falk, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, David B. Huffman and Uwe Sunde
      Incentivized choice experiments are a key approach to measuring preferences in economics but are also costly. Survey measures are a low-cost alternative but can suffer from additional forms of measurement error due to their hypothetical nature. This paper seeks to...  View Details
      Keywords: Survey Validation; Experiment; Preference Measurement; Surveys; Economics; Behavior; Measurement and Metrics
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      Falk, Armin, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, David B. Huffman, and Uwe Sunde. "The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences." Management Science 69, no. 4 (April 2023): 1935–1950.
      • April 2023
      • Article

      The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation

      By: Ethan Rouen and Matthias Regier
      We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between...  View Details
      Keywords: Intangibles; Valuation; Human Capital; Investment Return
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      Rouen, Ethan, and Matthias Regier. "The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation." Art. 102384. Journal of Corporate Finance 79 (April 2023).
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Organizational Responses to Product Cycles

      By: Achyuta Adhvaryu, Vittorio Bassi, Anant Nyshadham, Jorge Tamayo and Nicolas Torres
      Product cycles entail the mass production of new—and often increasingly complex—products on a regular basis. How do firms manage these changes? We use granular daily data from a leading automobile manufacturer to study the organizational impacts of introducing new...  View Details
      Keywords: Training; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Knowledge Management; Production; Product; Organizational Structure; Auto Industry; Argentina
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      Adhvaryu, Achyuta, Vittorio Bassi, Anant Nyshadham, Jorge Tamayo, and Nicolas Torres. "Organizational Responses to Product Cycles." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-061, March 2023.
      • March 2023
      • Supplement

      Allianz Türkiye (C): Managing the 2017 Hail Storm

      By: John D. Macomber and Fares Khrais
      Allianz Turkey is a property casualty insurance company operating in a region experiencing increasing losses from natural catastrophe events related to climate change, for example hail, wildfire, and flooding. There are also substantial other natural catastrophe...  View Details
      Keywords: Insurance And Reinsurance; Natural Disasters; Turkey; Insurance; Climate Change; Analytics and Data Science; Insurance Industry; Financial Services Industry; Turkey
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      Macomber, John D., and Fares Khrais. "Allianz Türkiye (C): Managing the 2017 Hail Storm." Harvard Business School Supplement 223-084, March 2023.
      • March 2023 (Revised May 2023)
      • Technical Note

      Technical Note: The Traits of Entrepreneurs

      By: Jo Tango and Alys Ferragamo
      Entrepreneurship has the potential for extreme success but also comes with high risks. Given this risk-reward profile, we might wonder why individuals choose to become entrepreneurs. Are there personality traits that lead someone to become an entrepreneur? Can you...  View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneur; Innovation; Personality; Personality Traits; Risk Preference; Big Five; Locus Of Control; Success; Entrepreneurship; Personal Characteristics
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      Tango, Jo, and Alys Ferragamo. "Technical Note: The Traits of Entrepreneurs." Harvard Business School Technical Note 823-099, March 2023. (Revised May 2023.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Complexity and Time

      By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
      We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives
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      Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Complexity and Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31047, March 2023.
      • March–April 2023
      • Article

      Market Segmentation Trees

      By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
      Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing
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      Aouad, Ali, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira, and Ryan McNellis. "Market Segmentation Trees." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 648–667.
      • February 2023
      • Supplement

      Coats Dyehouse Management

      By: Willy C. Shih
      Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour...  View Details
      Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chain; Inventory; Supply Chain Management; Operations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia
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      Shih, Willy C. "Coats Dyehouse Management." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Supplement 622-703, February 2023.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Outcome-Driven Dynamic Refugee Assignment with Allocation Balancing

      By: Kirk Bansak and Elisabeth Paulson
      This study proposes two new dynamic assignment algorithms to match refugees and asylum seekers to geographic localities within a host country. The first, currently implemented in a multi-year pilot in Switzerland, seeks to maximize the average predicted employment...  View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Refugees; Mathematical Methods
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      Bansak, Kirk, and Elisabeth Paulson. "Outcome-Driven Dynamic Refugee Assignment with Allocation Balancing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-048, January 2022.
      • February 2023
      • Article

      The Effect of Systems of Management Controls on Honesty in Managerial Reporting

      By: Aishwarrya Deore, Susanna Gallani and Ranjani Krishnan
      While budgetary controls with capital rationing are optimal in theory and widespread in practice, empirical research documents their association with higher employee dishonesty compared to budgetary controls without rationing. In this study, we examine whether...  View Details
      Keywords: Directing Controls; Misreporting; Mission Statements; Participative Budgeting; Stewardship Theory; Systems Of Management Controls; Capital; Budgets and Budgeting; Mission and Purpose
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      Deore, Aishwarrya, Susanna Gallani, and Ranjani Krishnan. "The Effect of Systems of Management Controls on Honesty in Managerial Reporting." Art. 101401. Accounting, Organizations and Society 105 (February 2023).
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Summarizing the Mental Customer Journey

      By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp, Pechthida Kim and Tomer Ullman
      How do consumers summarize and act on their experiences, as when deciding whether an interaction with a firm was satisfying and whether to buy from it? Previous work on the summary of continuous experiences has tended to focus on a handful of experience patterns and...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Experience; Customer Journey; Natural Language Processing; Summarization; Customer Satisfaction; Outcome or Result; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      De Freitas, Julian, Ahmet Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp, Pechthida Kim, and Tomer Ullman. "Summarizing the Mental Customer Journey." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-038, January 2023.
      • January–February 2023
      • Article

      External Interfaces and Internal Processes: Market Positioning and Divergent Professionalization Paths in Young Ventures

      By: Alicia DeSantola, Ranjay Gulati and Pavel Zhelyazkov
      We explore how the initial market positioning of entrepreneurial ventures shapes how they professionalize over time, focusing specifically on the development of functional roles. In contrast to existing literature, which has presumed a uniform march toward...  View Details
      Keywords: Market Positioning; Professionalization; Scaling; Entrepreneurship; Strategy; Business Startups; Growth and Development; Organizational Structure
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      DeSantola, Alicia, Ranjay Gulati, and Pavel Zhelyazkov. "External Interfaces and Internal Processes: Market Positioning and Divergent Professionalization Paths in Young Ventures." Organization Science 34, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 1–23.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Job Design and Workers’ Wellbeing: Evidence from a Hospital Setting

      By: Susanna Gallani and Jacob Riegler
      This study examines the relationship between job design imbalance and workers’ well-being. We build on Simons (2005) framework for the design of high-performing jobs and develop a survey instrument to capture workers’ perceptions of their job design and work...  View Details
      Keywords: Well-being; Job Design and Levels; Working Conditions; Perception; Work-Life Balance; Health Industry
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      Gallani, Susanna, and Jacob Riegler. "Job Design and Workers’ Wellbeing: Evidence from a Hospital Setting." Working Paper, January 2023.
      • January 2023
      • Article

      Racial Diversity and Racial Policy Preferences: The Great Migration and Civil Rights

      By: Alvaro Calderon, Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
      Between 1940 and 1970, more than 4 million African Americans moved from the South to the North of the United States, during the Second Great Migration. This same period witnessed the struggle and eventual success of the civil rights movement in ending institutionalized...  View Details
      Keywords: Civil Rights; Great Migration; History; Race; Rights; Prejudice and Bias; Government Legislation
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      Calderon, Alvaro, Vasiliki Fouka, and Marco Tabellini. "Racial Diversity and Racial Policy Preferences: The Great Migration and Civil Rights." Review of Economic Studies 90, no. 1 (January 2023): 165–200. (Available also from VOX, Broadstreet, and VOX EU.)
      • December 2022
      • Case

      To Feed the Planet: Juan Luciano at ADM

      By: Joshua D. Margolis, David E. Bell, Damien McLoughlin, Stacy Straaberg and James Weber
      In December 2022, Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO of agribusiness and nutrition giant ADM, considered the next phase of the historic company’s future. Beginning in 2011 when he joined as COO and moving into his tenure as CEO in 2015, Luciano led a transformation of ADM...  View Details
      Keywords: Agriculture; Leadership; Agribusiness; Acquisition; Business Units; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customer Value and Value Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Cash; Cost of Capital; Cost Management; Profit; Food; Global Range; Innovation Strategy; Leadership Development; Leadership Style; Leading Change; Growth and Development Strategy; Risk Management; Organizational Culture; Organizational Structure; Strategic Planning; Risk and Uncertainty; Adaptation; Business Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Vertical Integration; Value Creation; Transformation; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; United States; Chicago
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      Margolis, Joshua D., David E. Bell, Damien McLoughlin, Stacy Straaberg, and James Weber. "To Feed the Planet: Juan Luciano at ADM." Harvard Business School Case 423-060, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Institutional Emplacement and the Novel Resurgence of Independent Bookstores

      By: Ryan Raffaelli and Ryann Noe
      This study reveals how actors leverage physical place as an asset to facilitate organizational adaptation and industry evolution. Through a longitudinal, qualitative analysis of the U.S. independent bookselling industry from 1995 to 2019, we outline how dispersed...  View Details
      Keywords: Industry Growth; Small Business; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Business Processes; Retail Industry; Publishing Industry; United States
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      Raffaelli, Ryan, and Ryann Noe. "Institutional Emplacement and the Novel Resurgence of Independent Bookstores." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-033, December 2022.
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