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- January 2021
- Case
The FIRE Savings Calculator
By: Michael Parzen and Paul J. Hamilton
This case follows Carol Muñoz, a member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) lifestyle movement. At the age of 45, Carol is considering retiring and living off the $1 million she has accumulated. Using Monte Carlo simulation, Carol forecasts the...
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- January 2021
- Article
Using Models to Persuade
By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model...
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- August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
- Technical Note
Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Predictable Financial Crises
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are
substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior
three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Business Reopening Decisions and Demand Forecasts During the COVID-19 Pandemic
How quickly will American businesses reopen after COVID-19 lockdowns end? We use a nationwide survey of small businesses to measure firms’ expectations about their re-opening and future demand. A plurality of firms in our sample expect to reopen within days of the end...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S....
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- March 2020
- Supplement
People Analytics at Teach For America (B)
By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley
This is a supplement to the People Analytics at Teach For America (A) case. In this supplement, situated one year after the A case, Managing Director Michael Metzger must decide how to apply his team's predictive models generated from the previous year’s data.
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Market Segmentation Trees
By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
As more commerce and media consumption are being conducted online, a wealth of new opportunities are emerging for personalized advertising. We propose a general methodology, Model Trees for Personalization (MTP), for tackling a broad class of personalized...
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- December 2019
- Case
Forecasting ClimaCell
By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Christopher Stanton and James Barnett
A weather technology startup, ClimaCell considers the R&D trade-offs and financing implications of pursuing a proposed contract with a major automobile maker, rather than continuing its focus on building a scalable, all-purpose weather prediction engine.
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- November 2019
- Case
Rechargeable Batteries, 2017: Gigafactory Wars in the Offing?
By: John R. Wells and Benjamin Weinstock
In 2017, the global market for rechargeable lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries was 126 gigawatt-hours (GWh) valued at $37 billion, growing by $10 billion in two years. Once confined largely to consumer electronics and appliances, the rapid increase in demand was spurred by...
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Keywords:
Batteries;
Rechargeable Batteries;
Lithium-ion;
Lithium-ion Batteries;
Electric Vehicle;
Electric Vehicles;
Energy Entrepreneurship;
Energy Markets;
Energy Storage;
Battery;
Demand Uncertainty;
Demand Forecasting;
Supply ＆ Demand;
Supply And Demand;
Capacity Planning;
Tesla;
Technological And Scientific Innovation;
Technological Change;
Technology Change;
Technology Commercialization;
Policy;
Policy Change;
Subsidies;
Power/energy;
Power Grid;
Energy Policy;
Developing Markets;
Alevo;
Samsung;
Lg Chem;
Catl;
Northvolt;
General Motors;
Energy;
Entrepreneurship;
Technological Innovation;
Commercialization;
Policy;
Demand And Consumers;
forecasting And prediction;
Supply And Industry;
Emerging Markets;
Competitive Strategy;
China
- October 2019
- Case
GRIT Fitness
By: Lynda M. Applegate and Olivia Hull
In December 2018, GRIT Fitness was a growing chain of boutique fitness studios offering a variety of workout classes, including weightlifting, high intensity interval training, and cardio dance. With 400 members and three Dallas studios, CEO Brittani Rettig believed...
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Keywords:
Entrepreneurship;
Business Startups;
Mission And Purpose;
Corporate Strategy;
Customer Focus And Relationships;
forecasting And prediction;
Business Plan;
Trends;
Experience And Expertise;
Talent And Talent Management;
Training;
Health;
Selection And Staffing;
Leadership Style;
Leadership Development;
Management Style;
Management Teams;
Brands And Branding;
Organizational Culture;
Organizational Structure;
Motivation And Incentives;
Sports;
Competition;
Diversification;
Expansion;
Value Creation;
Health Industry;
Sports Industry;
Texas
- August 28, 2019
- Article
How to Make Your Sales Forecasts More Accurate
By: Lou Shipley
Companies need consistently accurate sales forecasts — but unfortunately they are rare. That’s because many companies fail to align their sales and marketing departments, and that alignment is a prerequisite for forecast accuracy. Companies can achieve better alignment...
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- July 2019
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,...
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- July 2019
- Article
'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity
By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis
When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined...
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- July 2019
- Teaching Note
Miroglio Fashion
By: Sunil Gupta
Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 519-053, 519-070, and 519-072.
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- June 2019 (Revised September 2019)
- Case
Parrot: Navigating the Nascent Drone Industry
By: Rory M. McDonald, Emilie Billaud and Vincent Dessain
In 2018, Henri Seydoux, CEO and Founder of Parrot, believed that his company was at an inflection point in its history. Parrot had been a European leader in consumer electronics since the 1990s, first developing Bluetooth kits for cars before moving on to electronic...
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Keywords:
forecasting And prediction;
Disruption;
Entrepreneurship;
Corporate Strategy;
Technological Innovation;
Leading Change;
Competitive Advantage;
Technology;
Competitive Strategy;
Consumer Products Industry;
Electronics Industry;
Entertainment And Recreation Industry;
Motion Pictures And Video Industry;
Technology Industry;
Video Game Industry;
Europe;
France;
Paris
- 2019
- Working Paper
Reflexivity in Credit Markets
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin
Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes, and that market outcomes in turn affect investors' beliefs. We develop a behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring such a two-way feedback loop. In our model, investors form beliefs...
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- March 2019 (Revised May 2019)
- Case
Growth Investing at Totem Point
By: Suraj Srinivasan, Charles C.Y. Wang and Jonah Goldberg
The case describes the investment of hedge fund, Totem Point Management in Analog Semiconductors (ADI) as a way to discuss forecasting and valuation in growth companies. In June 2016, hedge fund Totem Point invested in ADI at around $55 a share. In general, Totem Point...
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- February 2019
- Case
Miroglio Fashion (A)
By: Sunil Gupta and David Lane
Francesco Cavarero, chief information officer of Miroglio Fashion, Italy’s third-largest retailer of women’s apparel, was trying to bring analytical rigor to the company’s forecasting and inventory management decisions. But fashion is inherently hard to predict. Can...
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- 2019
- Book
The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power
By: Shoshana Zuboff
In this masterwork of original thinking and research, Shoshana Zuboff provides startling insights into the phenomenon that she has named surveillance capitalism. The stakes could not be higher: a global architecture of behavior modification threatens human nature in...
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