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Skip to Main Content Cold Call A podcast featuring faculty discussing cases they've written and the lessons they impart. Subscribe on iTunes 29 Sep...
- February 2021
- Tutorial
Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein
This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and...
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- January–February 2021
- Article
Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality
By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both...
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- January 2021
- Case
Aster DM Healthcare: Budgeting for a Crisis
By: V.G. Narayanan and Amy Klopfenstein
In April 2020, Alisha Moopen, Deputy Managing Director of Aster DM Healthcare, a network of clinics, hospitals, and pharmacies in the Middle East and India, must create her company’s budget for the 2021 fiscal year in light of the onset of Covid-19. The pandemic had...
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- January 2021
- Supplement
Aster DM Healthcare: Budget Exercise
By: V.G. Narayanan and Amy Klopfenstein
In April 2020, Alisha Moopen, Deputy Managing Director of Aster DM Healthcare, a network of clinics, hospitals, and pharmacies in the Middle East and India, must create her company’s budget for the 2021 fiscal year in light of the onset of Covid-19. The pandemic had...
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Keywords:
Decision Making;
Decisions;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Judgments;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Cost vs Benefits;
Finance;
Borrowing and Debt;
Financial Institutions;
Banks and Banking;
Financial Condition;
Financial Liquidity;
Accounting;
Budgets and Budgeting;
Management;
Crisis Management;
Health Pandemics;
Health Industry;
Asia;
India;
United Arab Emirates;
Dubai
- January 2021 (Revised March 2021)
- Case
THE YES: Reimagining the Future of E-Commerce with Artificial Intelligence (AI)
By: Jill Avery, Ayelet Israeli and Emma von Maur
THE YES, a multi-brand shopping app launched in May 2020 offered a new type of buying experience for women’s fashion, driven by a sophisticated algorithm that used data science and machine learning to create and deliver a personalized store for every shopper, based on...
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Keywords:
Data;
Data Analytics;
Artificial Intelligence;
Ai;
Ai Algorithms;
Ai Creativity;
Fashion;
Retail;
Retail Analytics;
Digital Marketing;
E-commerce;
E-commerce Strategy;
Platform;
Platforms;
Big Data;
Preference Elicitation;
Preference Prediction;
Predictive Analytics;
App Development;
＂marketing Analytics＂;
Advertising;
Mobile App;
Mobile Marketing;
Apparel;
Referral Rewards;
Referrals;
Female Ceo;
Female Entrepreneur;
Female Protagonist;
Data and Data Sets;
Analysis;
Creativity;
Marketing Strategy;
Brands and Branding;
Consumer Behavior;
Demand and Consumers;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Marketing Channels;
Online Advertising;
Online Technology;
Mobile Technology;
Fashion Industry;
Retail Industry;
Apparel and Accessories Industry;
Consumer Products Industry;
United States
- January 2021
- Case
The FIRE Savings Calculator
By: Michael Parzen and Paul J. Hamilton
This case follows Carol Muñoz, a member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) lifestyle movement. At the age of 45, Carol is considering retiring and living off the $1 million she has accumulated. Using Monte Carlo simulation, Carol forecasts the...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Real Credit Cycles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S....
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- January 2021
- Article
Using Models to Persuade
By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model...
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- December 2020
- Teaching Note
Forecasting ClimaCell
By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Christopher Stanton and James Barnett
A weather technology startup, ClimaCell considers the R&D trade-offs and financing implications of pursuing a proposed contract with a major automobile maker, rather than continuing its focus on building a scalable, all-purpose weather prediction engine.
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- November 2020
- Case
Axis My India
By: Ananth Raman, Ann Winslow and Kairavi Dey
"Pradeep Gupta founded Axis My India (AMI) as a printing and publishing company in 1998. In 2013, AMI expanded into consumer research and election forecasting. Although a relatively unknown entity, AMI predicted several election results accurately. Gupta describes...
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- August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
- Technical Note
Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Predictable Financial Crises
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Business Reopening Decisions and Demand Forecasts During the COVID-19 Pandemic
How quickly will American businesses reopen after COVID-19 lockdowns end? We use a nationwide survey of small businesses to measure firms’ expectations about their re-opening and future demand. A plurality of firms in our sample expect to reopen within days of the end...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S....
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- March 2020
- Supplement
People Analytics at Teach For America (B)
By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley
This is a supplement to the People Analytics at Teach For America (A) case. In this supplement, situated one year after the A case, Managing Director Michael Metzger must decide how to apply his team's predictive models generated from the previous year’s data.
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Market Segmentation Trees
By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
As more commerce and media consumption are being conducted online, a wealth of new opportunities are emerging for personalized advertising. We propose a general methodology, Model Trees for Personalization (MTP), for tackling a broad class of personalized...
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- December 2019
- Case
Forecasting ClimaCell
By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Christopher Stanton and James Barnett
A weather technology startup, ClimaCell considers the R&D trade-offs and financing implications of pursuing a proposed contract with a major automobile maker, rather than continuing its focus on building a scalable, all-purpose weather prediction engine.
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- November 2019 (Revised November 2019)
- Case
Rechargeable Batteries, 2017: Gigafactory Wars in the Offing?
By: John R. Wells and Benjamin Weinstock
In 2017, the global market for rechargeable lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries was 126 gigawatt-hours (GWh) valued at $37 billion, growing by $10 billion in two years. Once confined largely to consumer electronics and appliances, the rapid increase in demand was spurred by...
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Keywords:
Batteries;
Rechargeable Batteries;
Lithium-ion;
Lithium-ion Batteries;
Electric Vehicle;
Electric Vehicles;
Energy Entrepreneurship;
Energy Markets;
Energy Storage;
Battery;
Demand Uncertainty;
Demand Forecasting;
Supply ＆ Demand;
Supply And Demand;
Capacity Planning;
Tesla;
Technological And Scientific Innovation;
Technological Change;
Technology Change;
Technology Commercialization;
Policy Change;
Subsidies;
Power/energy;
Power Grid;
Energy Policy;
Developing Markets;
Alevo;
Samsung;
Lg Chem;
Catl;
Northvolt;
General Motors;
Energy;
Entrepreneurship;
Technological Innovation;
Commercialization;
Policy;
Demand and Consumers;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Supply and Industry;
Emerging Markets;
Competitive Strategy;
China
- October 2019
- Case
GRIT Fitness
By: Lynda M. Applegate and Olivia Hull
In December 2018, GRIT Fitness was a growing chain of boutique fitness studios offering a variety of workout classes, including weightlifting, high intensity interval training, and cardio dance. With 400 members and three Dallas studios, CEO Brittani Rettig believed...
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Keywords:
Entrepreneurship;
Business Startups;
Mission and Purpose;
Corporate Strategy;
Customer Focus and Relationships;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Business Plan;
Trends;
Experience and Expertise;
Talent and Talent Management;
Training;
Health;
Selection and Staffing;
Leadership Style;
Leadership Development;
Management Style;
Management Teams;
Brands and Branding;
Organizational Culture;
Organizational Structure;
Motivation and Incentives;
Sports;
Competition;
Diversification;
Expansion;
Value Creation;
Health Industry;
Sports Industry;
Texas
- August 28, 2019
- Article
How to Make Your Sales Forecasts More Accurate
By: Lou Shipley
Companies need consistently accurate sales forecasts — but unfortunately they are rare. That’s because many companies fail to align their sales and marketing departments, and that alignment is a prerequisite for forecast accuracy. Companies can achieve better alignment...
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