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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (3,082)
      • Faculty Publications  (964)

      Forecasting And Prediction Remove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Is Pay Transparency Good?

      By: Zoë Cullen
      Countries around the world are designing pay transparency policies with the intention of combating pay discrimination. Are these policies working as intended? Most focus on revealing pay gaps between co-workers within a firm, with the goal of arming workers with...  View Details
      Keywords: Pay Transparency; Trends; Transition; Communication Strategy; Wages; Policy; Europe; North America; Australia
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      Cullen, Zoë. "Is Pay Transparency Good?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-039, January 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Summarizing the Mental Customer Journey

      By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp, Pechthida Kim and Tomer Ullman
      How do consumers summarize and act on their experiences, as when deciding whether an interaction with a firm was satisfying and whether to buy from it? Previous work on the summary of continuous experiences has tended to focus on a handful of experience patterns and...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Experience; Customer Journey; Natural Language Processing; Summarization; Customer Satisfaction; Outcome or Result; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      De Freitas, Julian, Ahmet Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp, Pechthida Kim, and Tomer Ullman. "Summarizing the Mental Customer Journey." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-038, January 2023.
      • January 2023
      • Article

      Racial Diversity and Racial Policy Preferences: The Great Migration and Civil Rights

      By: Alvaro Calderon, Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
      Between 1940 and 1970, more than 4 million African Americans moved from the South to the North of the United States, during the Second Great Migration. This same period witnessed the struggle and eventual success of the civil rights movement in ending institutionalized...  View Details
      Keywords: Civil Rights; Great Migration; History; Race; Rights; Prejudice and Bias; Government Legislation
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      Calderon, Alvaro, Vasiliki Fouka, and Marco Tabellini. "Racial Diversity and Racial Policy Preferences: The Great Migration and Civil Rights." Review of Economic Studies 90, no. 1 (January 2023): 165–200. (Available also from VOX, Broadstreet, and VOX EU.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Institutional Emplacement and the Novel Resurgence of Independent Bookstores

      By: Ryan Raffaelli and Ryann Noe
      This study reveals how actors leverage physical place as an asset to facilitate organizational adaptation and industry evolution. Through a longitudinal, qualitative analysis of the U.S. independent bookselling industry from 1995 to 2019, we outline how dispersed...  View Details
      Keywords: Industry Growth; Small Business; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Business Processes; Retail Industry; Publishing Industry; United States
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      Raffaelli, Ryan, and Ryann Noe. "Institutional Emplacement and the Novel Resurgence of Independent Bookstores." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-033, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

      By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov
      Predictive model development is understudied despite its importance to modern businesses. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms) as the primary driver of model quality, the value of tools...  View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science
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      Yue, Daniel, Paul Hamilton, and Iavor Bojinov. "Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-029, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
      We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries' supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence...  View Details
      Keywords: Swap Spreads; Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates; Financial Crisis; Financial Markets
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      Hanson, Samuel G., Aytek Malkhozov, and Gyuri Venter. "Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions

      By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
      We empirically analyze how managerial overrides to a commercial algorithm that forecasts demand and schedules labor affect store performance. We analyze administrative data from a large grocery retailer that utilizes a commercial algorithm to forecast demand and...  View Details
      Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Performance; Applications and Software; Management Skills; Management Practices and Processes; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Improving Human-Algorithm Collaboration: Causes and Mitigation of Over- and Under-Adherence

      By: Maya Balakrishnan, Kris Ferreira and Jordan Tong
      Even if algorithms make better predictions than humans on average, humans may sometimes have “private” information which an algorithm does not have access to that can improve performance. How can we help humans effectively use and adjust recommendations made by...  View Details
      Keywords: Cognitive Biases; Algorithm Transparency; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Cognition and Thinking
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      Balakrishnan, Maya, Kris Ferreira, and Jordan Tong. "Improving Human-Algorithm Collaboration: Causes and Mitigation of Over- and Under-Adherence." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • November 22, 2022
      • Article

      Is Novel Research Worth Doing? Evidence from Peer Review at 49 Journals

      By: Misha Teplitskiy, Hao Peng, Andrea Blasco and Karim R. Lakhani
      There are long-standing concerns that peer review, which is foundational to scientific institutions like journals and funding agencies, favors conservative ideas over novel ones. We investigate the association between novelty and the acceptance of manuscripts submitted...  View Details
      Keywords: Research; Journals and Magazines
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      Teplitskiy, Misha, Hao Peng, Andrea Blasco, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Is Novel Research Worth Doing? Evidence from Peer Review at 49 Journals." e2118046119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 47 (November 22, 2022).
      • November 2022
      • Article

      Hate Crime Towards Minoritized Groups Increases as They Increase in Sized-Based Rank

      By: Mina Cikara, Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
      People are on the move in unprecedented numbers within and between countries. How does demographic change affect local intergroup dynamics? In complement to accounts that emphasize stereotypical features of groups as determinants of their treatment, we propose the...  View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice; Minority; Hate Crimes; Reference Dependence; Prejudice and Bias; Attitudes; Demographics
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      Cikara, Mina, Vasiliki Fouka, and Marco Tabellini. "Hate Crime Towards Minoritized Groups Increases as They Increase in Sized-Based Rank." Nature Human Behaviour 6, no. 11 (November 2022): 1537–1544. (Pre-Published online August 8, 2022, Featured in HBS Working Knowledge and ABC News.)
      • November 2022
      • Article

      The Sharp Spikes of Poverty: Financial Scarcity Is Related to Higher Levels of Distress Intensity in Daily Life

      By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Erin L. Frey, Sandra C. Matz, Bertus F. Jeronimus and Adam D. Galinsky
      Although income is an important predictor of life satisfaction, the precise forces that drive this relationship remain unclear. We propose that financial resources afford individuals a path to reducing the distressing impact of everyday hassles, in turn increasing...  View Details
      Keywords: Distress; Affect; Control; Financial Scarcity; Life Satisfaction; Income; Poverty; Well-being
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      Jachimowicz, Jon M., Erin L. Frey, Sandra C. Matz, Bertus F. Jeronimus, and Adam D. Galinsky. "The Sharp Spikes of Poverty: Financial Scarcity Is Related to Higher Levels of Distress Intensity in Daily Life." Social Psychological & Personality Science 13, no. 8 (November 2022): 1187–1198.
      • October 2022 (Revised December 2022)
      • Case

      SMART: AI and Machine Learning for Wildlife Conservation

      By: Brian Trelstad and Bonnie Yining Cao
      Spatial Monitoring and Reporting Tool (SMART), a set of software and analytical tools designed for the purpose of wildlife conservation, had demonstrated significant improvements in patrol coverage, with some observed reductions in poaching and contributing to wildlife...  View Details
      Keywords: Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets; Technology Adoption; Strategy; Management; Ethics; Social Enterprise; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Natural Environment; Technology Industry; Cambodia; United States; Africa
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      Trelstad, Brian, and Bonnie Yining Cao. "SMART: AI and Machine Learning for Wildlife Conservation." Harvard Business School Case 323-036, October 2022. (Revised December 2022.)
      • October 17, 2022
      • Article

      Relational Diversity in Social Portfolios Predicts Well-Being

      By: Hanne K. Collins, Serena F. Hagerty, Jordi Quoidbach, Michael I. Norton and Alison Wood Brooks
      We document a link between the relational diversity of one’s social portfolio—the richness and evenness of relationship types across one’s social interactions—and well-being. Across four distinct samples, respondents from the United States who completed a preregistered...  View Details
      Keywords: Social Interaction; Social Engagement; Well-being; Happiness; Social and Collaborative Networks; Family and Family Relationships
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      Collins, Hanne K., Serena F. Hagerty, Jordi Quoidbach, Michael I. Norton, and Alison Wood Brooks. "Relational Diversity in Social Portfolios Predicts Well-Being." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 43 (October 17, 2022).
      • Working Paper

      Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials

      By: Marcella Alsan, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein and Heidi L. Williams
      This article examines the consequences and causes of low enrollment of Black patients in clinical trials. We develop a simple model of similarity-based extrapolation that predicts that evidence is more relevant for decision-making by physicians and patients when it...  View Details
      Keywords: Representation; Racial Disparity; Health Testing and Trials; Race; Equality and Inequality; Innovation and Invention; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Alsan, Marcella, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein, and Heidi L. Williams. "Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30575, October 2022. (Revise and resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
      • October 2022
      • Article

      Revisiting Extraversion and Leadership Emergence: A Social Network Churn Perspective

      By: Blaine Landis, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Dan J. Wang and Robert W. Krause
      One of the classic relationships in personality psychology is that extraversion is associated with emerging as an informal leader. However, recent findings raise questions about the longevity of extraverted individuals as emergent leaders. Here, we adopt a social...  View Details
      Keywords: Extraversion; Social Networks; Emergent Leadership; Leadership Development; Personal Characteristics; Perception
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      Landis, Blaine, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Dan J. Wang, and Robert W. Krause. "Revisiting Extraversion and Leadership Emergence: A Social Network Churn Perspective." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 123, no. 4 (October 2022): 811–829.
      • October 2022
      • Article

      Underestimating Counterparts' Learning Goals Impairs Conflictual Conversations

      By: Hanne K. Collins, Charles A. Dorison, Francesca Gino and Julia A. Minson
      Given the difficulty people have engaging with disagreeing views across contexts—from political discussions to workplace conflicts—it is critical to understand how conflictual conversation can be improved. While previous work has focused on strategies to change...  View Details
      Keywords: Interpersonal Communication; Conflict and Resolution; Values and Beliefs; Learning; Perception
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      Collins, Hanne K., Charles A. Dorison, Francesca Gino, and Julia A. Minson. "Underestimating Counterparts' Learning Goals Impairs Conflictual Conversations." Psychological Science 33, no. 10 (October 2022): 1732–1752.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      What's My Employee Worth? The Effects of Salary Benchmarking

      By: Zoë B. Cullen, Shengwu Li and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
      While U.S. legislation prohibits employers from sharing information about their employees’ compensation with each other, companies are still allowed to acquire and use more aggregated data provided by third parties. Most medium and large firms report using this type...  View Details
      Keywords: Information Sharing; Wages; Policy; Compensation and Benefits
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      Cullen, Zoë B., Shengwu Li, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "What's My Employee Worth? The Effects of Salary Benchmarking." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30570, October 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Perceptions about Monetary Policy

      By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
      We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from micro data on professional forecasters. The perceived rule varies significantly over time, with important consequences for monetary policy and bond markets. Over the monetary policy cycle, easings are...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Central Banking; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy; Interest Rates
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      Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30480, September 2022.
      • September 2022
      • Article

      Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews

      By: Dennis W. Campbell and Ruidi Shang
      This paper examines whether information extracted via text-based statistical methods applied to employee reviews left on the website Glassdoor.com can be used to develop indicators of corporate misconduct risk. We argue that inside information on the incidence of...  View Details
      Keywords: Management Accounting; Management Control; Corporate Culture; Corporate Misconduct; Risk Measurement; Organizational Culture; Crime and Corruption; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics
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      Campbell, Dennis W., and Ruidi Shang. "Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews." Management Science 68, no. 9 (September 2022): 7034–7053.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance

      By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
      We empirically analyze the effects of employee lateness and absenteeism on store performance by examining 25.5 million employee shift timecards covering more than 100,000 employees across more than 500 U.S. retail grocery store locations over a four year time period....  View Details
      Keywords: Absenteeism; Lateness; Scheduling; Performance Productivity; Employees; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, and Ananth Raman. "The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance." Working Paper, August 2022.
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