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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Cognitive Uncertainty
By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
Because many economic decisions are difficult, people may exhibit cognitive uncertainty: subjective uncertainty about what the optimal action is. In the presence of such cognitive uncertainty, people implicitly compress objective probabilities towards a cognitive...  View Details
Keywords: Cognitive Uncertainty; Beliefs; Expectations; Choice Under Risk; Cognitive Noise
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Government Shareholdings in Brokerage Firms and Analyst Research Quality
By: Sheng Cao, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang and Huifang Yin
During times when the Chinese government wished to prop up the market, sell-side analysts from brokerages with significant government ownership issued relatively less pessimistic (or more optimistic) earnings forecasts, earnings-forecast revisions, and stock...  View Details
Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Forecast Optimism; Forecast Accuracy; Government Incentives; Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets
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  • March 2017 (Revised August 2021)
  • Case

Flashion: Art vs. Science in Fashion Retailing
By: Kris Ferreira and Karim R. Lakhani
Kate Wilson, retail analytics manager at Flashion, a fashion flash-sale site, is tasked with developing analytics to optimize pricing for first-exposure products on the site. Many in the industry have relied on years of experience and intuition to determine pricing—can...  View Details
Keywords: Analytics; E-commerce; Pricing; Data; Service Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Internet; Online Technology; Technology Adoption; Mathematical Methods; Decision Making; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry; United States
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  • Winter 2016
  • Article

Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization
By: Kris J. Ferreira, Bin Hong Alex Lee and David Simchi-Levi
We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an example of how a retailer can use its wealth of data to optimize pricing decisions on a daily basis. Rue La La is in the online fashion sample sales industry, where they offer extremely limited-time...  View Details
Keywords: Online Technology; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Revenue; Sales; Retail Industry
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  • October 2013
  • Article

How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies
By: Phanish Puranam, Ranjay Gulati and Sourav Bhattacharya
While many theories of the firm seek to explain when firms make rather than buy, in practice, firms often make and buy the same input—they engage in plural sourcing. We argue that explaining the mix of external procurement and internal sourcing for the same input...  View Details
Keywords: Supply Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Prejudice and Bias; Mathematical Methods
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  • April 2010
  • Case

Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
Metabical is a new weight loss drug from Cambridge Sciences Pharmaceuticals intended for moderately overweight individuals. In anticipation of final FDA approval, the senior director of marketing, Barbara Printup, prepares for the product launch and must make several...  View Details
Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Marketing Strategy; Price; Consumer Behavior; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Planning; Brands and Branding; Pharmaceutical Industry
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  • 01 Jan 1977
  • Conference Presentation

Short Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts: Optimal Use of National Weather Service Data
By: James K. Sebenius and Richard Lehman
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Research; Business and Government Relations; Energy Industry
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  • 1972
  • Chapter

Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance
By: Michael Jensen
Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation
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  • Teaching Interest

Executive Education: Finance for Senior Executives
By: Malcolm P. Baker

Finance for Senior Executives provides the frameworks to strategically use financial resources and position your company for future success. By examining corporate finance from both internal and external perspectives, this HBS Executive Education View Details

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