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- February 2021
- Tutorial
Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein
This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and...
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- January–February 2021
- Article
Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality
By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both...
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- January 2021
- Case
Aster DM Healthcare: Budgeting for a Crisis
By: V.G. Narayanan and Amy Klopfenstein
In April 2020, Alisha Moopen, Deputy Managing Director of Aster DM Healthcare, a network of clinics, hospitals, and pharmacies in the Middle East and India, must create her company’s budget for the 2021 fiscal year in light of the onset of Covid-19. The pandemic had...
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- January 2021
- Supplement
Aster DM Healthcare: Budget Exercise
By: V.G. Narayanan and Amy Klopfenstein
In April 2020, Alisha Moopen, Deputy Managing Director of Aster DM Healthcare, a network of clinics, hospitals, and pharmacies in the Middle East and India, must create her company’s budget for the 2021 fiscal year in light of the onset of Covid-19. The pandemic had...
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Keywords:
Decision Making;
Decisions;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Judgments;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Cost vs Benefits;
Finance;
Borrowing and Debt;
Financial Institutions;
Banks and Banking;
Financial Condition;
Financial Liquidity;
Accounting;
Budgets and Budgeting;
Management;
Crisis Management;
Health Pandemics;
Health Industry;
Asia;
India;
United Arab Emirates;
Dubai
- January 2021 (Revised March 2021)
- Case
THE YES: Reimagining the Future of E-Commerce with Artificial Intelligence (AI)
By: Jill Avery, Ayelet Israeli and Emma von Maur
THE YES, a multi-brand shopping app launched in May 2020 offered a new type of buying experience for women’s fashion, driven by a sophisticated algorithm that used data science and machine learning to create and deliver a personalized store for every shopper, based on...
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Keywords:
Data;
Data Analytics;
Artificial Intelligence;
Ai;
Ai Algorithms;
Ai Creativity;
Fashion;
Retail;
Retail Analytics;
Digital Marketing;
E-commerce;
E-commerce Strategy;
Platform;
Platforms;
Big Data;
Preference Elicitation;
Preference Prediction;
Predictive Analytics;
App Development;
＂marketing Analytics＂;
Advertising;
Mobile App;
Mobile Marketing;
Apparel;
Referral Rewards;
Referrals;
Female Ceo;
Female Entrepreneur;
Female Protagonist;
Data and Data Sets;
Analysis;
Creativity;
Marketing Strategy;
Brands and Branding;
Consumer Behavior;
Demand and Consumers;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Marketing Channels;
Online Advertising;
Online Technology;
Mobile Technology;
Fashion Industry;
Retail Industry;
Apparel and Accessories Industry;
Consumer Products Industry;
United States
- January 2021
- Case
The FIRE Savings Calculator
By: Michael Parzen and Paul J. Hamilton
This case follows Carol Muñoz, a member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) lifestyle movement. At the age of 45, Carol is considering retiring and living off the $1 million she has accumulated. Using Monte Carlo simulation, Carol forecasts the...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Real Credit Cycles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S....
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- January 2021
- Article
Using Models to Persuade
By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model...
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- December 2020
- Teaching Note
Forecasting ClimaCell
By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Christopher Stanton and James Barnett
A weather technology startup, ClimaCell considers the R&D trade-offs and financing implications of pursuing a proposed contract with a major automobile maker, rather than continuing its focus on building a scalable, all-purpose weather prediction engine.
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- November 2020
- Case
Axis My India
By: Ananth Raman, Ann Winslow and Kairavi Dey
Pradeep Gupta founded Axis My India (AMI) as a printing and publishing company in 1998. In 2013, AMI expanded into consumer research and election forecasting. Although a relatively unknown entity, AMI predicted several election results accurately. Gupta describes AMI’s...
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- October 2020 (Revised March 2021)
- Supplement
Migros Turkey: Scaling Online Operations During COVID-19 (C)
By: Antonio Moreno and Gamze Yucaoglu
The case opens in August 2020 as Ozgur Tort and Mustafa Bartin, CEO and chief large-format and online retail officer of Migros Ticaret A.S. (Migros), Turkey’s oldest and one of its largest supermarket chains, are navigating Migros through COVID-19 and the unprecedented...
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Keywords:
Business Model;
Strategy;
Technology Platform;
Information Technology;
Technology Adoption;
Value Creation;
Globalization;
Competition;
Expansion;
Logistics;
Profit;
Resource Allocation;
Diversification;
Corporate Strategy;
Crisis Management;
Health Pandemics;
Strategic Planning;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Turkey
- August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
- Technical Note
Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools...
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- July 2020
- Case
King's College Hospital in Crisis
By: John R. Wells and Benjamin Weinstock
On December 11, 2017, King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (King’s), one of London’s leading teaching hospital groups, was put into “special measures” by NHS Improvement (NHSI), the financial regulator of England’s National Health Service (NHS). The future of...
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- June 2020 (Revised November 2020)
- Case
Vanguard Retail Operations (A)
By: Willy C. Shih and Antonio Moreno
The first two cases in this series are set in the financial services industry, and explore whether it is better for back-office workers to be generalists who provide the flexibility of being able to handle the complete range of transactions that the company faces or...
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- June 2020 (Revised August 2020)
- Supplement
Vanguard Retail Operations (B)
By: Willy C. Shih and Antonio Moreno
The first two cases in this series are set in the financial services industry, and explore whether it is better for back-office workers to be generalists who provide the flexibility of being able to handle the complete range of transactions that the company faces or...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Predictable Financial Crises
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...
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- June 2020 (Revised February 2021)
- Case
Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)
By: Jonas Heese, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos and Julia Kelley
In March 2020, as coronavirus reduced demand for air travel, an analyst was forecasting American Airlines’ (American’s) first quarter financial results. To develop a forecast, she needed to familiarize herself with Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-02, “Leases...
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Keywords:
Accounting;
Financial Reporting;
Financial Statements;
Finance;
Governance;
Corporate Accountability;
Corporate Governance;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Governing and Advisory Boards;
Leasing;
Accounting Industry;
Air Transportation Industry;
North and Central America;
United States
- 2020
- Working Paper
Business Reopening Decisions and Demand Forecasts During the COVID-19 Pandemic
How quickly will American businesses reopen after COVID-19 lockdowns end? We use a nationwide survey of small businesses to measure firms’ expectations about their re-opening and future demand. A plurality of firms in our sample expect to reopen within days of the end...
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- June 2020
- Teaching Note
Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth
By: Elie Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller
Teaching Note for HBS No. 519-097.
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