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- 2025
- Working Paper
Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending
By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti
This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
How Do Global Portfolio Investors Hedge Currency Risk?
By: Robin Greenwood and Alex Cheema-Fox
We use monthly portfolio data from one of the world’s largest custodian banks, with over $40 trillion assets under custody, to study how global portfolio investors hedge foreign exchange risk in their equity and fixed income portfolios over the past 25 years. The data... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Bank Capital and the Growth of Private Credit
By: Sergey Chernenko, Robert Ialenti and David Scharfstein
We show that business development companies (BDCs), a significant source of private credit, are very well capitalized according to bank capital frameworks. These types of private credit funds have median risk-based capital ratios of about 36%, which is 26 percentage... View Details
- June 2024
- Article
Going Digital: Implications for Firm Value and Performance
By: Wilbur Chen and Suraj Srinivasan
We examine firm value and performance implications of the growing trend of non-technology companies engaging in digital transformation. We measure digital activities in firms based on the disclosure of digital words in the business description section of 10-Ks. Digital... View Details
- Spring 2024
- Article
The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications
By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Daniel K. Tarullo
As revealed by the failures of three regional banks in the spring of 2023, bank runs are not a thing of the past. To inform the ongoing discussion of the appropriate regulatory response, we examine trends in the banking industry over the last twenty-five years. On the... View Details
- 2024
- Article
Financial Constraints and Short-Term Planning Are Linked to Flood Risk Adaptation Gaps in U.S. Cities
By: Shirley Lu and Anya Nakhmurina
Adaptation is critical in reducing the inevitable impact of climate change. Here we study cities’ adaptation to elevated flood risk by introducing a linguistic measure of adaptation extracted from financial disclosures of 431 US cities over 2013–2020. While cities with... View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
Why Do Index Funds Have Market Power? Quantifying Frictions in the Index Fund Market
By: Zach Y. Brown, Mark Egan, Jihye Jeon, Chuqing Jin and Alex A. Wu
Index funds are one of the most common ways investors access financial markets and are perceived to be a transparent and low-cost alternative to active investment management. Despite these purported virtues of index fund investing and the introduction of new products... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
How Do Households Suppress the Price of Tail Risk?
By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Célérier, Gordon Liao and Boris Vallée
This paper investigates the effects of the issuance of retail products with non-linear payoffs on option prices. For a given underlying asset, when the outstanding volume of products embedding a short-put position increases, implied volatility at the corresponding... View Details
- 2020
- Working Paper
Determinants of Early-Stage Startup Performance: Survey Results
To explore determinants of new venture performance, the CEOs of 470 early-stage startups were surveyed regarding a broad range of factors related to their venture’s customer value proposition, product management, marketing, technology and operations, financial... View Details
- 2020
- Working Paper
Consumers Punish Firms That Cut Employee Pay in Response to COVID-19
By: Bhavya Mohan, Serena Hagerty and Michael Norton
Two experiments, including one incentive compatible study, examine the impact of cutting pay for executives versus employees in response to COVID-19 on consumer behavior. Study 1 explores the effect of announcing cuts or no cuts to CEO and employee pay, and shows that... View Details
- August 2020 (Revised December 2020)
- Case
Satrix: Competing in the Passive Asset Management Industry in South Africa
By: Mark Egan, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Dilyana Karadzhova Botha
In late 2017, Satrix, one of the largest passive asset management firms in South Africa and a pioneer in the industry since 2000, had to decide its strategy going forward in a market where passive asset management had become increasingly commoditized and... View Details
- August 2020
- Article
Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy
By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details
- October 2019 (Revised December 2019)
- Case
BC Partners: Acuris
By: Victoria Ivashina and Terrence Shu
This case follows Nikos Stathopoulos, Managing Partner of BC Partners, as he and his team evaluate the potential sale of one of BC Partners’ portfolio companies, Acuris. Acuris was a global financial intelligence, news, and data company that had been acquired by BC... View Details
- September 2018
- Teaching Note
The Case of the Unidentified Ratios
By: Josh Lerner
Teaching Note for HBS No. 812-129. This teaching note provides an introduction to ratio analysis as well as the different financial properties across and within industries. Students are asked to match ratios to a list of industries. View Details
- 2018
- Working Paper
The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves
By: Robin Greenwood and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
We document a strong effect of pension and insurance company (P&I) assets on the long end of the yield curve. Using data from 26 countries, the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bond yields is negatively related to the ratio of pension assets (in... View Details
- 2018
- Simulation
Financial Analysis Simulation: Data Detective
By: Suraj Srinivasan and V.G. Narayanan
In this simulation, students learn to identify typical industry characteristics revealed in financial data. Equipped with an interactive and flexible set of tools, students analyze disguised financials and—using their knowledge of operational practices and reasoning... View Details
- Article
Are Buybacks Really Shortchanging Investment?
By: Jesse M. Fried and Charles C.Y. Wang
It’s no secret that the American economy is suffering from the twin ills of slow growth and rising income inequality. Many lay the blame at the doors of America’s largest public corporations. The charge? These firms prefer to distribute cash generated from their... View Details
- November 2017
- Teaching Note
Generating Higher Value at IBM (A) and (B)
By: Benjamin C. Esty and E. Scott Mayfield
Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 215-058 and 215-059. View Details