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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges...  View Details
Keywords: Overreaction; Rational Expectations; Macroeconomics; Market Participation; Social Psychology
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  • July 2022
  • Case

3G Capital
By: Jo Tango and Alys Ferragamo
In June 2022, 3G Capital Co-Managing Partners Alex Behring and Daniel Schwartz were in a partners’ meeting. On the agenda were three potential investments. Code named “Alpha,” “Beta,” and “Charlie,” they were the finalists amongst hundreds that the team had screened....  View Details
Keywords: Investment Decisions; Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Decision Choices and Conditions; Private Equity
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Small Campaign Donors
By: Laurent Bouton, Julia Cagé, Edgard Dewitte and Vincent Pons
In this paper, we study the characteristics and behavior of small donors, and compare them to those of large donors. We first build a novel dataset including all the 340 million individual contributions reported to the U.S. Federal Election Commission between 2005 and...  View Details
Keywords: Campaign Finance; Campaign Contributions; Small Donations; ActBlue; WinRed; TV Advertising; Political Elections; Finance; Demographics; Advertising; Analysis; Analytics and Data Science
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Uniform Rate Setting and the Deposit Channel
By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford
Banks do not completely pass-through changes in short-term market rates to depositors. The deposit channel of monetary policy proposes that banks choose the rate of pass-through across their branches based on local deposit market concentration, which consequently...  View Details
Keywords: Banks and Banking; Financial Markets; Interest Rates; Banking Industry
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  • February 2022 (Revised September 2022)
  • Case

InstaDeep: AI Innovation Born in Africa (A)
By: Shikhar Ghosh and Esel Çekin
Karim Beguir and Zohra Slim were the co-founders of InstaDeep, a deep tech startup focusing on artificial intelligence (AI) solutions. Instadeep was one of the few companies globally that were partnering with DeepMind, an AI subsidiary of Google [Alphabet Inc.]....  View Details
Keywords: AI; Artificial Intelligence; Entrepreneurship; Operations; Business Subsidiaries; Brands and Branding; Innovation and Invention; Growth and Development Strategy; AI and Machine Learning; Technology Industry; Africa
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  • February 2022 (Revised July 2022)
  • Supplement

InstaDeep: AI Innovation Born in Africa (B)
By: Shikhar Ghosh and Esel Çekin
Karim Beguir and Zohra Slim were the co-founders of InstaDeep, a deep tech startup focusing on artificial intelligence (AI) solutions. Instadeep was one of the few companies globally that were partnering with DeepMind, an AI subsidiary of Google [Alphabet Inc.]....  View Details
Keywords: AI; Artificial Intelligence; Entrepreneurship; Operations; Business Subsidiaries; Brands and Branding; Innovation and Invention; Growth and Development Strategy; AI and Machine Learning; Technology Industry; Africa
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Calling All Issuers: The Market for Debt Monitoring
By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen and Weiling Liu
A substantial fraction of local governments refinance their long-term debt with significant delays—resulting in sizable losses. Using data from 2001 to 2018, we estimate that U.S. municipals lost over $31 billion from this delayed refinancing, whereas the entire U.S....  View Details
Keywords: Debt Monitoring; Financial Institutions; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Government Administration; Financing and Loans
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  • Article

Adaptive Machine Unlearning
By: Varun Gupta, Christopher Jung, Seth Neel, Aaron Roth, Saeed Sharifi-Malvajerdi and Chris Waites
Data deletion algorithms aim to remove the influence of deleted data points from trained models at a cheaper computational cost than fully retraining those models. However, for sequences of deletions, most prior work in the non-convex setting gives valid guarantees...  View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; AI and Machine Learning
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  • November 2021 (Revised February 2022)
  • Case

The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939
By: Alberto Cavallo, Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
The Great Depression was, by far, the worst economic contraction of the twentieth century, and some of the most important ideas about both fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the century were developed in response to it. The economic collapse, which...  View Details
Keywords: Great Depression; Economic Conditions; Unemployment; Homelessness; Financial Crisis; History; Economy; Policy; Poverty; Social Issues
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  • October 2021
  • Case

(180) Days of Quibi
By: David J. Collis and Terrence Shu
Mobile streaming app Quibi was ready to take the entertainment world by storm at its April 2020 launch. Backed by $1.75 billion, influential investors from Hollywood to Wall Street eagerly anticipated early success for this brainchild of Meg Whitman, former CEO of...  View Details
Keywords: Corporate Strategy; Strategy; Business Model; Business Startups; Mobile Technology
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  • October 2021 (Revised November 2022)
  • Case

The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats or Levelling Down?
By: Vincent Pons, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella and Elena Corsi
Since 1978, Spain had struggled to control unemployment. The country’s labor law was protective of employees hired long-term and companies used temporary contracts as buffers. In 2012, amid economic recession and a 23.6% unemployment rate, a center-right government of...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Globalized Markets and Industries; Government Legislation; International Relations; Working Conditions; Employment; Labor Unions; Contracts; Social Issues; Public Opinion; Spain; European Union
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  • September 13, 2021
  • Article

Managing Through Crunch Time—Without Burning Out Your Team
By: Flavio Serapiao, Andrew Hill and Boris Groysberg
Crunch times—the long, stressful hours of work that are often required in the final weeks before a new product launch—can have an inordinate impact on the success of businesses and they’re powerful shapers of organizational culture. Effective leaders understand that...  View Details
Keywords: Leadership; Situation or Environment; Management Skills
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Multi-location Workers in Multinational Firms? Tradeoffs in Contextual Specialization of Employees and Organizational Outcomes
By: Hise O. Gibson, Ryan W. Buell and Prithwiraj Choudhury
We study how “contextual specialization,” the act of focusing workers’ organizational tasks within a particular locational context, and “contextual non-specialization,” the practice of diversifying workers’ organizational tasks among multiple locational contexts,...  View Details
Keywords: Talent and Talent Management; Performance; Experience and Expertise; Selection and Staffing; Strength and Weakness; Personal Development and Career
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  • July 2021 (Revised December 2021)
  • Case

Pershing Square's Pandemic Trade (A)
By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Luis M. Viceira, Dean Xu and Lucas Baker
This case explores the decision that Bill Ackman, CEO and founder of the hedge fund Pershing Square Capital, was considering in late February 2020 about hedging the exposure of the fund’s portfolio from the potential financial fallout ensuing from an extreme event like...  View Details
Keywords: Health Pandemics; Financial Liquidity; Cost Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk Management
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  • July 2021 (Revised September 2021)
  • Case

Sarah Robb O'Hagan: The Rocky Road of Passion
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz and Francesca Gino
In November 2018, Sarah Robb O’Hagan is reeling from an unceremonious exit as CEO of Flywheel, a chain of indoor cycling studios. In the past, Robb O’Hagan had led transformational change across companies throughout the sports and fitness industry, including as...  View Details
Keywords: Personal Development and Career; Satisfaction; Decision Making; Problems and Challenges; Opportunities; Interests
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  • June 2021
  • Article

Cognition and Emotion in Extreme Political Action: Individual Differences and Dynamic Interactions
By: Leor Zmigrod and Amit Goldenberg
Who is most likely to join and engage in extreme political action? While traditional theories have focused on situational factors or group identity attributes, an emerging science illustrates that tendencies for extreme political action may also be rooted in...  View Details
Keywords: Extreme Political Action; Ideology; Political Psychology; Cognition-emotion Interactions; Cognition and Thinking; Emotions; Personal Characteristics
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  • May 2021
  • Article

Ideology and Composition Among an Online Crowd: Evidence From Wikipedians
By: Shane Greenstein, Grace Gu and Feng Zhu
Online communities bring together participants from diverse backgrounds and often face challenges in aggregating their opinions. We infer lessons from the experience of individual contributors to Wikipedia articles about U.S. politics. We identify two factors that...  View Details
Keywords: User Segregation; Online Community; Contested Knowledge; Collective Intelligence; Ideology; Bias; Wikipedia; Knowledge Sharing; Perspective; Government and Politics
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  • April 2021 (Revised March 2022)
  • Case

Slavery and Capitalism
By: Sophus A. Reinert and Cary Williams
The birth of “Modern Economic Growth” constituted a watershed in human history, allowing societies to escape the Malthusian impasse and permanently raise living standards. While the new growth regime had lifted billions of people out of extreme poverty over the last...  View Details
Keywords: Poverty; Social Issues; Economic Growth; Equality and Inequality
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  • March 2021
  • Case

P.F. Chang's
By: Ashish Nanda, Nitin Nohria and Margaret Cross
Excited yet apprehensive after being named CEO of P.F. Chang’s beginning July 1st, 2020, Damola Adamolekun was well aware of the extraordinary challenges facing the firm. The closure of businesses deemed “nonessential” owing to the COVID-19 pandemic had devastated the...  View Details
Keywords: Restaurants; COVID-19 Pandemic; Scenario Planning; Scenarios; Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy
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  • March 2021
  • Article

The Crowd Emotion Amplification Effect
By: Amit Goldenberg, Erika Weisz, Timothy D. Sweeney, Mina Cikara and James Gross
How do people go about reading a room or taking the temperature of a crowd? When people catch a brief glimpse of an array of faces, they can only focus their attention on some of the faces. We propose that perceivers preferentially attend to faces exhibiting strong...  View Details
Keywords: Crowds; Social Cognition; Intergroup Dynamics; Emotions; Perception; Judgments; Analysis
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