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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Evidence from Retirement Plans
By: Mark Egan, Alexander MacKay and Hanbin Yang
We study empirical patterns in investment behavior using a comprehensive data set of defined contribution plans. Using plan-level portfolio allocation data for the near universe of 401(k) plans over the period 2009–2019, we document substantial differences in...  View Details
Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Retirement Planning; Defined Contribution Retirement Plan; 401 (K); Finance; Investment Portfolio; Investment; Retirement; Behavioral Finance; Financial Services Industry; United States
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  • September 2021
  • Article

Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...  View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
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  • August 2021
  • Article

Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates
By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright
Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes...  View Details
Keywords: Conundrum; Investor Demand; Monetary Policy Transmission; Interest Rates
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  • Article

Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business
By: Frank V. Cespedes
The first task of crisis management is a reasonably accurate view of the current situation and how it might evolve. There are many predictions about so-called “new normal” as a result of the semi-enforced social distancing necessitated by the coronavirus. But most are...  View Details
Keywords: Health Pandemics; Crisis Management; Strategic Planning
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  • 2019
  • Working Paper

Reflexivity in Credit Markets
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin
Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes, and that market outcomes in turn affect investors' beliefs. We develop a behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring such a two-way feedback loop. In our model, investors form beliefs...  View Details
Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit
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  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...  View Details
Keywords: Bubbles; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
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  • August 2018
  • Article

Extrapolation and Bubbles
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors...  View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Extrapolation; Volume; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
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  • Article

Extrapolating from Moore's Law
By: Michael A. Cusumano and David B. Yoffie
Keywords: Strategy; Technology
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  • April 2015
  • Article

Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System
By: Adi Sunderam
Many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid-2000s focus on money demand. This paper asks whether the short-term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money. We first present a simple model where households demand money...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Instruments; Banks and Banking
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  • 2015
  • Article

What's so Institutional about Leadership?: Leadership Mechanisms of Value Infusion
By: Ryan Raffaelli and Mary Ann Glynn
Leaders are important social actors in organizations, centrally involved in establishing and maintaining institutional values, a view that was articulated by Philip Selznick (1957) nearly a half-century ago, but often overlooked in institutionalists' accounts. Our...  View Details
Keywords: Leadership; Organizations; Values and Beliefs
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  • January 2015
  • Article

X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which...  View Details
Keywords: Capital Asset Pricing; Returns; Investing; Asset Pricing; Investment Return
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  • 2014
  • Other Presentation

Feature Extrapolation in Mental Tracking
By: Julian De Freitas and K. Knobre
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  • February 1989 (Revised November 1991)
  • Case

Science Technology Co.--1985
By: Thomas R. Piper
The CEO of a U.S. electronics firm is assessing the financial forecasts and the financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Given the cyclicality of the industry and the volatility of the firm's performance, the CEO is unsure as to the usefulness of...  View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Change Management; Industry Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Volatility; Electronics Industry
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