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- 2021
- Working Paper
What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Evidence from Retirement Plans
We study empirical patterns in investment behavior using a comprehensive data set of defined contribution plans. Using plan-level portfolio allocation data for the near universe of 401(k) plans over the period 2009–2019, we document substantial differences in...
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Keywords:
Stock Market Expectations;
Demand Estimation;
Retirement Planning;
Defined Contribution Retirement Plan;
401 (K);
Finance;
Investment Portfolio;
Investment;
Retirement;
Behavioral Finance;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Egan, Mark, Alexander MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Evidence from Retirement Plans." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-044, December 2021. (Direct download. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29604, December 2021)
- September 2021
- Article
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...
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Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 141, no. 3 (September 2021).
- August 2021
- Article
Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates
By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright
Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes...
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Hanson, Samuel G., David O. Lucca, and Jonathan H. Wright. "Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 136, no. 3 (August 2021): 1719–1781.
- Article
Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business
The first task of crisis management is a reasonably accurate view of the current situation and how it might evolve. There are many predictions about so-called “new normal” as a result of the semi-enforced social distancing necessitated by the coronavirus. But most are...
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Cespedes, Frank V. "Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business." Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (May 4, 2020).
- 2019
- Working Paper
Reflexivity in Credit Markets
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin
Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes, and that market outcomes in turn affect investors' beliefs. We develop a behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring such a two-way feedback loop. In our model, investors form beliefs...
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Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin. "Reflexivity in Credit Markets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25747, April 2019.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...
View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25399, December 2018.
- August 2018
- Article
Extrapolation and Bubbles
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors...
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Barberis, Nicholas, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Extrapolation and Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 129, no. 2 (August 2018): 203–227.
- Article
Extrapolating from Moore's Law
By: Michael A. Cusumano and David B. Yoffie
Cusumano, Michael A., and David B. Yoffie. "Extrapolating from Moore's Law." Communications of the ACM 59, no. 1 (December 2016): 33–35.
- April 2015
- Article
Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System
By: Adi Sunderam
Many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid-2000s focus on money demand. This paper asks whether the short-term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money. We first present a simple model where households demand money...
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Sunderam, Adi. "Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System." Review of Financial Studies 28, no. 4 (April 2015): 939–977.
- 2015
- Article
What's so Institutional about Leadership?: Leadership Mechanisms of Value Infusion
By: Ryan Raffaelli and Mary Ann Glynn
Leaders are important social actors in organizations, centrally involved in establishing and maintaining institutional values, a view that was articulated by Philip Selznick (1957) nearly a half-century ago, but often overlooked in institutionalists' accounts. Our...
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Raffaelli, Ryan, and Mary Ann Glynn. "What's so Institutional about Leadership? Leadership Mechanisms of Value Infusion." Research in the Sociology of Organizations 44 (2015): 283–316.
- January 2015
- Article
X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which...
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Barberis, Nicholas, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. "X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model." Journal of Financial Economics 115, no. 1 (January 2015): 1–24.
- 2014
- Other Presentation
Feature Extrapolation in Mental Tracking
By: Julian De Freitas and K. Knobre
- February 1989 (Revised November 1991)
- Case
Science Technology Co.--1985
By: Thomas R. Piper
The CEO of a U.S. electronics firm is assessing the financial forecasts and the financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Given the cyclicality of the industry and the volatility of the firm's performance, the CEO is unsure as to the usefulness of...
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Keywords:
Risk and Uncertainty;
Change Management;
Industry Growth;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Financial Strategy;
Volatility;
Electronics Industry
Piper, Thomas R. "Science Technology Co.--1985." Harvard Business School Case 289-040, February 1989. (Revised November 1991.)