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- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation
By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor I Bojinov
Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to...
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Ham, Dae Woong, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley, and Iavor I Bojinov. "Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation." Harvard Business School Working Paper. (Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-070, May 2023.)
- April 2023
- Article
Inattentive Inference
By: Thomas Graeber
This paper studies how people infer a state of the world from information structures that include additional, payoff-irrelevant states. For example, learning from a customer review about a product’s quality requires accounting for the reviewer’s otherwise irrelevant...
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Graeber, Thomas. "Inattentive Inference." Journal of the European Economic Association 21, no. 2 (April 2023): 560–592.
- March 2023
- Teaching Note
VideaHealth: Building the AI Factory
By: Karim R. Lakhani
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 621-021. The case “VideaHealth: Building the AI Factory” examines the creation of dental startup VideaHealth (Videa) and the development of its artificial intelligence (AI)-led business strategy through the eyes of founder and CEO Florian...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Complexity and Time
By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,...
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Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Complexity and Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31047, March 2023.
- February 2023
- Article
The Effect of Systems of Management Controls on Honesty in Managerial Reporting
By: Aishwarrya Deore, Susanna Gallani and Ranjani Krishnan
While budgetary controls with capital rationing are optimal in theory and widespread in practice, empirical research documents their association with higher employee dishonesty compared to budgetary controls without rationing. In this study, we examine whether...
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Keywords:
Directing Controls;
Misreporting;
Mission Statements;
Participative Budgeting;
Stewardship Theory;
Systems Of Management Controls;
Capital;
Budgets and Budgeting;
Mission and Purpose
Deore, Aishwarrya, Susanna Gallani, and Ranjani Krishnan. "The Effect of Systems of Management Controls on Honesty in Managerial Reporting." Art. 101401. Accounting, Organizations and Society 105 (February 2023).
- January 23, 2023
- Article
Digital Public Health Interventions at Scale: The Impact of Social Media Advertising on Beliefs and Outcomes Related to COVID Vaccines
By: Susan Athey, Kristen Grabarz, Michael Luca and Nils Wernerfelt
Public health organizations increasingly use social media advertising campaigns in pursuit of public health goals. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of about $40 million of social media advertisements that were run and experimentally tested on Facebook and...
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Public Health;
Vaccines;
Social Media;
Advertising;
Power and Influence;
Health Care and Treatment
Athey, Susan, Kristen Grabarz, Michael Luca, and Nils Wernerfelt. "Digital Public Health Interventions at Scale: The Impact of Social Media Advertising on Beliefs and Outcomes Related to COVID Vaccines." e2208110120. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120, no. 5 (January 23, 2023).
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Link Between Integrative Bargaining and Leadership Evaluations
By: Julian J. Zlatev and Francis J. Flynn
We draw from implicit leadership theory and the dual concern theory of conflict resolution to posit a link
between negotiation style and leadership evaluations. Specifically, we propose that individuals who are
more skilled at integrative, but not distributive,...
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Keywords:
Prosocial Behavior;
Leadership;
Negotiation;
Conflict and Resolution;
Performance Evaluation
Zlatev, Julian J., and Francis J. Flynn. "The Link Between Integrative Bargaining and Leadership Evaluations." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-044, January 2023.
- 2023
- Article
Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a...
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Keywords:
Causal Inference;
Heterogeneous Treatment Effects;
Precision Medicine;
Uplift Modeling;
Analytics and Data Science;
AI and Machine Learning
Imai, Kosuke, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 242–256.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development
Predictive model development is understudied despite its centrality in modern artificial
intelligence and machine learning business applications. Although prior discussions
highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and
algorithms)...
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Keywords:
Analytics and Data Science
Yue, Daniel, Paul Hamilton, and Iavor Bojinov. "Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-029, December 2022. (Revised April 2023.)
- 2022
- Working Paper
Pay-As-You-Go Insurance: Experimental Evidence on Consumer Demand and Behavior
By: Ray Kluender
Pay-as-you-go contracts reduce minimum purchase requirements which may increase market participation. We randomize the introduction and price(s) of a novel pay-as-you-go contract to the California auto insurance market where 17 percent of drivers are uninsured. The...
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Kluender, Ray. "Pay-As-You-Go Insurance: Experimental Evidence on Consumer Demand and Behavior." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-030, December 2022.
- 2022
- Article
The Ordinary Concept of a Meaningful Life: The Role of Subjective and Objective Factors in Third-Person Attributions of Meaning
By: Michael Prinzing, Julian De Freitas and Barbara L. Fredrickson
The desire for a meaningful life is ubiquitous, yet the ordinary concept of a meaningful life is poorly understood. Across six experiments (total N = 2,539), we investigated whether third-person attributions of meaning depend on the psychological states an agent...
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Keywords:
Experimental Philosophy;
Folk Theories;
Meaning In Life;
Moral Psychology;
Positive Psychology;
Moral Sensibility;
Satisfaction
Prinzing, Michael, Julian De Freitas, and Barbara L. Fredrickson. "The Ordinary Concept of a Meaningful Life: The Role of Subjective and Objective Factors in Third-Person Attributions of Meaning." Journal of Positive Psychology 17, no. 5 (2022): 639–654.
- September 16, 2022
- Article
A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties
By: Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson and Sinan Aral
The authors analyzed data from multiple large-scale randomized experiments on LinkedIn’s People You May Know algorithm, which recommends new connections to LinkedIn members, to test the extent to which weak ties increased job mobility in the world’s largest...
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Rajkumar, Karthik, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Sinan Aral. "A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties." Science 377, no. 6612 (September 16, 2022).
- September 2022
- Article
Experimentation and Startup Performance: Evidence from A/B Testing
By: Rembrand Koning, Sharique Hasan and Aaron Chatterji
Recent scholarship has argued that experimentation should be the organizing principle for entrepreneurial strategy. Experimentation leads to organizational learning, which drives improvements in firm performance. We investigate this proposition by exploiting the...
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Keywords:
Experimentation;
A/B Testing;
Data-driven Decision-making;
Organizational Learning;
Entrepreneurship;
Strategy;
Business Startups;
Learning;
Performance;
Decision Making
Koning, Rembrand, Sharique Hasan, and Aaron Chatterji. "Experimentation and Startup Performance: Evidence from A/B Testing." Management Science 68, no. 9 (September 2022): 6434–6453.
- September 2022
- Article
Health Externalities and Policy: The Role of Social Preferences
By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf and Farzad Saidi
Social preferences facilitate the internalization of health externalities, for example by reducing mobility during a pandemic. We test this hypothesis using mobility data from 258 cities worldwide alongside experimentally validated measures of social preferences....
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Keywords:
Social Preferences;
Pandemics;
Mobility;
Health Externalities;
Mitigation Policies;
Health Pandemics;
Cooperation;
Behavior;
Policy
Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf, and Farzad Saidi. "Health Externalities and Policy: The Role of Social Preferences." Management Science 68, no. 9 (September 2022): 6751–6761.
- 2022
- Article
Data Poisoning Attacks on Off-Policy Evaluation Methods
By: Elita Lobo, Harvineet Singh, Marek Petrik, Cynthia Rudin and Himabindu Lakkaraju
Off-policy Evaluation (OPE) methods are a crucial tool for evaluating policies in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where exploration is often infeasible, unethical, or expensive. However, the extent to which such methods can be trusted under adversarial threats...
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Lobo, Elita, Harvineet Singh, Marek Petrik, Cynthia Rudin, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Data Poisoning Attacks on Off-Policy Evaluation Methods." Special Issue on Proceedings of the 38th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2022). Proceedings of Machine Learning Research (PMLR) 180 (2022): 1264–1274.
- 2022
- Chapter
The Merits and Limits of China's Modern Universities
By: William C. Kirby
China has a long history of advanced learning, but its modern universities are quite young. Beginning in the late nineteenth century, the establishment of Chinese universities based on international models signaled the end of a millennium of promoting talent through...
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Kirby, William C. "The Merits and Limits of China's Modern Universities." Chap. 11 in Making Meritocracy: Lessons from China and India, from Antiquity to the Present, edited by Tarun Khanna and Michael Szonyi, 262–283. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2022.
- 2022
- Article
Towards Robust Off-Policy Evaluation via Human Inputs
By: Harvineet Singh, Shalmali Joshi, Finale Doshi-Velez and Himabindu Lakkaraju
Off-policy Evaluation (OPE) methods are crucial tools for evaluating policies in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where direct deployment is often infeasible, unethical, or expensive. When deployment environments are expected to undergo changes (that is, dataset...
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Singh, Harvineet, Shalmali Joshi, Finale Doshi-Velez, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Towards Robust Off-Policy Evaluation via Human Inputs." Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society (2022): 686–699.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Banking on Transparency for the Poor: Experimental Evidence from India
By: Erica M. Field, Natalia Rigol, Charity M. Troyer Moore, Rohini Pande and Simone G. Schaner
Do information frictions limit the benefits of financial inclusion drives for the rural poor? We evaluate an experimental intervention among recently banked poor Indian women receiving government cash transfers via direct deposit. Treated women were provided automated...
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Field, Erica M., Natalia Rigol, Charity M. Troyer Moore, Rohini Pande, and Simone G. Schaner. "Banking on Transparency for the Poor: Experimental Evidence from India." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30289, July 2022.
- Winter 2022
- Article
Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted
The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about...
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Demand Forecasting;
Reopening;
Health Pandemics;
Government Administration;
Small Business
Balla-Elliott, Dylan, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher Stanton. "Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 41, no. 1 (Winter 2022): 278–317.
- Article
Online Experimentation: Benefits, Operational and Methodological Challenges, and Scaling Guide
By: Iavor Bojinov and Somit Gupta
In the past decade, online controlled experimentation, or A/B testing, at scale has proved to be a significant driver of business innovation. The practice was first pioneered by the technology sector and, more recently, has been adopted by traditional companies...
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Keywords:
A/B Testing;
Experimentation;
Data-driven Culture;
Product Development;
Innovation and Invention;
Digital Transformation
Bojinov, Iavor, and Somit Gupta. "Online Experimentation: Benefits, Operational and Methodological Challenges, and Scaling Guide." Harvard Data Science Review, no. 4.3 (Summer, 2022).