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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation
By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor I Bojinov
Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to...  View Details
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  • April 2023
  • Article

Inattentive Inference
By: Thomas Graeber
This paper studies how people infer a state of the world from information structures that include additional, payoff-irrelevant states. For example, learning from a customer review about a product’s quality requires accounting for the reviewer’s otherwise irrelevant...  View Details
Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Information Types; Behavior; Knowledge Acquisition
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  • March 2023
  • Teaching Note

VideaHealth: Building the AI Factory
By: Karim R. Lakhani
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 621-021. The case “VideaHealth: Building the AI Factory” examines the creation of dental startup VideaHealth (Videa) and the development of its artificial intelligence (AI)-led business strategy through the eyes of founder and CEO Florian...  View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Applications and Software; Business Model; Marketing Strategy; Product Development; Health Industry; Technology Industry
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Complexity and Time
By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,...  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives
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  • February 2023
  • Article

The Effect of Systems of Management Controls on Honesty in Managerial Reporting
By: Aishwarrya Deore, Susanna Gallani and Ranjani Krishnan
While budgetary controls with capital rationing are optimal in theory and widespread in practice, empirical research documents their association with higher employee dishonesty compared to budgetary controls without rationing. In this study, we examine whether...  View Details
Keywords: Directing Controls; Misreporting; Mission Statements; Participative Budgeting; Stewardship Theory; Systems Of Management Controls; Capital; Budgets and Budgeting; Mission and Purpose
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  • January 23, 2023
  • Article

Digital Public Health Interventions at Scale: The Impact of Social Media Advertising on Beliefs and Outcomes Related to COVID Vaccines
By: Susan Athey, Kristen Grabarz, Michael Luca and Nils Wernerfelt
Public health organizations increasingly use social media advertising campaigns in pursuit of public health goals. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of about $40 million of social media advertisements that were run and experimentally tested on Facebook and...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Public Health; Vaccines; Social Media; Advertising; Power and Influence; Health Care and Treatment
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

The Link Between Integrative Bargaining and Leadership Evaluations
By: Julian J. Zlatev and Francis J. Flynn
We draw from implicit leadership theory and the dual concern theory of conflict resolution to posit a link between negotiation style and leadership evaluations. Specifically, we propose that individuals who are more skilled at integrative, but not distributive,...  View Details
Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Leadership; Negotiation; Conflict and Resolution; Performance Evaluation
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  • 2023
  • Article

Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a...  View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Precision Medicine; Uplift Modeling; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development
By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov
Predictive model development is understudied despite its centrality in modern artificial intelligence and machine learning business applications. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms)...  View Details
Keywords: Analytics and Data Science
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Pay-As-You-Go Insurance: Experimental Evidence on Consumer Demand and Behavior
By: Ray Kluender
Pay-as-you-go contracts reduce minimum purchase requirements which may increase market participation. We randomize the introduction and price(s) of a novel pay-as-you-go contract to the California auto insurance market where 17 percent of drivers are uninsured. The...  View Details
Keywords: Contracts; Market Participation; Consumer Behavior; Price; Insurance Industry
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  • 2022
  • Article

The Ordinary Concept of a Meaningful Life: The Role of Subjective and Objective Factors in Third-Person Attributions of Meaning
By: Michael Prinzing, Julian De Freitas and Barbara L. Fredrickson
The desire for a meaningful life is ubiquitous, yet the ordinary concept of a meaningful life is poorly understood. Across six experiments (total N = 2,539), we investigated whether third-person attributions of meaning depend on the psychological states an agent...  View Details
Keywords: Experimental Philosophy; Folk Theories; Meaning In Life; Moral Psychology; Positive Psychology; Moral Sensibility; Satisfaction
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  • September 16, 2022
  • Article

A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties
By: Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson and Sinan Aral
The authors analyzed data from multiple large-scale randomized experiments on LinkedIn’s People You May Know algorithm, which recommends new connections to LinkedIn members, to test the extent to which weak ties increased job mobility in the world’s largest...  View Details
Keywords: Job Mobility; Social Networks; Social Ties; Networks; Personal Development and Career
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  • September 2022
  • Article

Experimentation and Startup Performance: Evidence from A/B Testing
By: Rembrand Koning, Sharique Hasan and Aaron Chatterji
Recent scholarship has argued that experimentation should be the organizing principle for entrepreneurial strategy. Experimentation leads to organizational learning, which drives improvements in firm performance. We investigate this proposition by exploiting the...  View Details
Keywords: Experimentation; A/B Testing; Data-driven Decision-making; Organizational Learning; Entrepreneurship; Strategy; Business Startups; Learning; Performance; Decision Making
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  • September 2022
  • Article

Health Externalities and Policy: The Role of Social Preferences
By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf and Farzad Saidi
Social preferences facilitate the internalization of health externalities, for example by reducing mobility during a pandemic. We test this hypothesis using mobility data from 258 cities worldwide alongside experimentally validated measures of social preferences....  View Details
Keywords: Social Preferences; Pandemics; Mobility; Health Externalities; Mitigation Policies; Health Pandemics; Cooperation; Behavior; Policy
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  • 2022
  • Article

Data Poisoning Attacks on Off-Policy Evaluation Methods
By: Elita Lobo, Harvineet Singh, Marek Petrik, Cynthia Rudin and Himabindu Lakkaraju
Off-policy Evaluation (OPE) methods are a crucial tool for evaluating policies in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where exploration is often infeasible, unethical, or expensive. However, the extent to which such methods can be trusted under adversarial threats...  View Details
Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Cybersecurity; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2022
  • Chapter

The Merits and Limits of China's Modern Universities
By: William C. Kirby
China has a long history of advanced learning, but its modern universities are quite young. Beginning in the late nineteenth century, the establishment of Chinese universities based on international models signaled the end of a millennium of promoting talent through...  View Details
Keywords: Higher Education; Education Industry; China
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  • 2022
  • Article

Towards Robust Off-Policy Evaluation via Human Inputs
By: Harvineet Singh, Shalmali Joshi, Finale Doshi-Velez and Himabindu Lakkaraju
Off-policy Evaluation (OPE) methods are crucial tools for evaluating policies in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where direct deployment is often infeasible, unethical, or expensive. When deployment environments are expected to undergo changes (that is, dataset...  View Details
Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Research
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Banking on Transparency for the Poor: Experimental Evidence from India
By: Erica M. Field, Natalia Rigol, Charity M. Troyer Moore, Rohini Pande and Simone G. Schaner
Do information frictions limit the benefits of financial inclusion drives for the rural poor? We evaluate an experimental intervention among recently banked poor Indian women receiving government cash transfers via direct deposit. Treated women were provided automated...  View Details
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  • Winter 2022
  • Article

Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted
By: Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher Stanton
The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Demand Forecasting; Reopening; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Small Business
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  • Article

Online Experimentation: Benefits, Operational and Methodological Challenges, and Scaling Guide
By: Iavor Bojinov and Somit Gupta
In the past decade, online controlled experimentation, or A/B testing, at scale has proved to be a significant driver of business innovation. The practice was first pioneered by the technology sector and, more recently, has been adopted by traditional companies...  View Details
Keywords: A/B Testing; Experimentation; Data-driven Culture; Product Development; Innovation and Invention; Digital Transformation
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