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    • Faculty Publications  (17)

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    • All HBS Web  (325)
      • Faculty Publications  (17)

      Expected Utility Remove Expected Utility →

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      • April 2023
      • Article

      The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’

      By: Jacqueline N. Lane
      In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Research; Resource Allocation; Perception
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      Lane, Jacqueline N. "The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’." Art. 104707. Research Policy 52, no. 3 (April 2023).
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’

      By: Jacqueline N. Lane
      In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Research; Resource Allocation; Perception
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      Lane, Jacqueline N. "The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-037, January 2023.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Towards Robust Off-Policy Evaluation via Human Inputs

      By: Harvineet Singh, Shalmali Joshi, Finale Doshi-Velez and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      Off-policy Evaluation (OPE) methods are crucial tools for evaluating policies in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where direct deployment is often infeasible, unethical, or expensive. When deployment environments are expected to undergo changes (that is, dataset...  View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Research
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      Singh, Harvineet, Shalmali Joshi, Finale Doshi-Velez, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Towards Robust Off-Policy Evaluation via Human Inputs." Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society (2022): 686–699.
      • Article

      A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

      By: Edward McFowland III, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna and Tianshu Sun
      We define a prescriptive analytics framework that addresses the needs of a constrained decision-maker facing, ex ante, unknown costs and benefits of multiple policy levers. The framework is general in nature and can be deployed in any utility maximizing context, public...  View Details
      Keywords: Prescriptive Analytics; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Optimization; Observed Rank Utility Condition (OUR); Between-treatment Heterogeneity; Machine Learning; Decision Making; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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      McFowland III, Edward, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna, and Tianshu Sun. "A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects." MIS Quarterly 45, no. 4 (December 2021): 1807–1832.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      A Model of Relative Thinking

      By: Benjamin Bushong, Matthew Rabin and Joshua Schwartzstein
      Fixed differences loom smaller when compared to large differences. We propose a model of relative thinking where a person weighs a given change along a consumption dimension by less when it is compared to bigger changes along that dimension. In deterministic settings,...  View Details
      Keywords: Relative Thinking; Econometric Models; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking
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      Bushong, Benjamin, Matthew Rabin, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "A Model of Relative Thinking." Review of Economic Studies 88, no. 1 (January 2021): 162–191.
      • October 2016 (Revised October 2020)
      • Case

      Essent: From a State-Owned Utility to a Commercial Company

      By: Ananth Raman and Elena Corsi
      Patrick Lammers, Chief Commercial Officer (CCO) for the Dutch energy company Essent NV, once a state-owned company, was pleased with the progress Essent’s consumer (“B2C”) business had made: Earnings Before Income Tax (EBIT) for B2C had gone from a loss of €18 million...  View Details
      Keywords: Lean Management; Operation Management; Service Management; Commercialization; Operations; Management; Energy; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Service Operations; Performance; Energy Industry; Europe
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      Raman, Ananth, and Elena Corsi. "Essent: From a State-Owned Utility to a Commercial Company." Harvard Business School Case 617-026, October 2016. (Revised October 2020.)
      • October 2016 (Revised February 2019)
      • Module Note

      Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan

      By: Robert Simons
      This module reading describes how to build a profit plan to reflect the strategy of a business in economic terms. After introducing the profit wheel, cash wheel, and ROE wheel, the module illustrates how to use a profit plan to assess the viability of different...  View Details
      Keywords: Management Control Systems; Implementing Strategy; Execution; Profit Planning; Cash Flow Analysis; Asset Utilization; Return On Equity; Business Planning; Testing Strategy; Analyzing Strategic Alternative; Strategy; Asset Management; Cash Flow; Investment Return; Management Systems; Profit
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      Simons, Robert. "Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan." Harvard Business School Module Note 117-105, October 2016. (Revised February 2019.)
      • December 2007
      • Article

      Fair (and Not So Fair) Division

      By: John W. Pratt
      Drawbacks of existing procedures are illustrated and a method of efficient fair division is proposed that avoids them. Given additive participants' utilities, each item is priced at the geometric mean (or some other function) of its two highest valuations. The...  View Details
      Keywords: Price; Management Practices and Processes; Valuation
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      Pratt, John W. "Fair (and Not So Fair) Division." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 35, no. 3 (December 2007).
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Fair (and Not So Fair) Division

      By: John W. Pratt
      Drawbacks of existing procedures are illustrated and a method of efficient fair division is proposed that avoids them. Given additive participants' utilities, each item is priced at the geometric mean (or some other function) of its two highest valuations. The...  View Details
      Keywords: Fairness; Price
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      Pratt, John W. "Fair (and Not So Fair) Division." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-016, September 2007.
      • Article

      Gross National Happiness As an Answer to the Easterlin Paradox?

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
      The Easterlin Paradox refers to the fact that happiness data are typically stationary in spite of considerable increases in income. This amounts to a rejection of the hypothesis that current income is the only argument in the utility function. We find that the...  View Details
      Keywords: Wealth and Poverty; Happiness; Employment; Income; Mathematical Methods; Welfare
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Robert MacCulloch. "Gross National Happiness As an Answer to the Easterlin Paradox?" Journal of Development Economics 86, no. 1 (April 2008).
      • May 2000
      • Article

      Maxmin Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Peter Klibanoff and Emre Ozdenoren
      This paper provides an axiomatic foundation for a maxmin expected utility over a set of priors (MMEU) decision rule in an environment where the elements of choice are Savage acts. This characterization complements the original axiomatizations of MMEU developed in a...  View Details
      Keywords: Uncertainty Aversion; Ambiguity; Expected Utility; Set Of Priors; Knightian Uncertainty; Decision Making; Game Theory; Risk and Uncertainty; Mathematical Methods
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, Peter Klibanoff, and Emre Ozdenoren. "Maxmin Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors." Journal of Economic Theory 92, no. 1 (May 2000): 35–65.
      • January 2000
      • Article

      Maxmin Expected Utility through Statewise Combinations

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Peter Klibanoff and Emre Ozdenoren
      This paper provides an axiomatic foundation for a maxmin expected utility over a set of priors (MMEU) decision rule in an environment where the elements of choice are Savage acts. The key axioms are stated using statewise combinations as in Gul (1992).  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Mathematical Methods
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, Peter Klibanoff, and Emre Ozdenoren. "Maxmin Expected Utility through Statewise Combinations." Economics Letters 66, no. 1 (January 2000): 49–54.
      • September 1992 (Revised October 1992)
      • Case

      Acid Rain: The Southern Co. (B)

      By: Forest L. Reinhardt
      In addition to the issues of expected cost minimization elucidated in Acid Rain: The Southern Co. (A), problems involving regulatory uncertainty are critical to the firm's Clean Air Act compliance strategy. The regulatory uncertainty affects, and is affected by, the...  View Details
      Keywords: Energy Generation; Business Strategy; Environmental Sustainability; Cost vs Benefits; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategic Planning; Investment Return; Government Legislation; Wastes and Waste Processing; Business and Government Relations; Utilities Industry; Utilities Industry; United States
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      Reinhardt, Forest L. "Acid Rain: The Southern Co. (B)." Harvard Business School Case 793-040, September 1992. (Revised October 1992.)
      • February 1992 (Revised April 1993)
      • Case

      Acid Rain: The Southern Co. (A)

      By: Forest L. Reinhardt
      The Southern Co., an electric utility, is planning its compliance with the 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act. The Act established a system of tradeable permits for sulfur dioxide emissions. The company must decide whether to install pollution control equipment and...  View Details
      Keywords: Energy Generation; Business Strategy; Environmental Sustainability; Cost vs Benefits; Financial Management; Strategic Planning; Investment Return; Government Legislation; Wastes and Waste Processing; Utilities Industry; Utilities Industry; United States
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      Reinhardt, Forest L. "Acid Rain: The Southern Co. (A)." Harvard Business School Case 792-060, February 1992. (Revised April 1993.)
      • 1988
      • Chapter

      The Expected Utility of Playing a Game

      By: A. E. Roth
      Keywords: Game Theory; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Motivation and Incentives
      Citation
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      Roth, A. E. "The Expected Utility of Playing a Game." In The Shapley Value: Essays in Honor of Lloyd S. Shapley, edited by A. E. Roth, 51–70. Cambridge University Press, 1988.
      • Research Summary

      Equity Valuation

      By: Charles C.Y. Wang

      Professor Wang’s research utilizes valuation theory to explain how firm fundamentals are related to the expected rates of equity returns and their term structures. His research provides strong evidence that valuation-based proxies of expected returns outperform the...  View Details

      • Teaching Interest

      Overview

      By: Charles C.Y. Wang
      Charles C.Y. Wang is an associate professor of business administration in the Accounting and Management Unit and currently teaches the Business Analysis and Valuation course in the MBA elective curriculum. This course is aimed at all MBAs who expect at some point in...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Accounting; Managerial Accounting; Valuation; Investments; Econometrics
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