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- April 2021
- Article
Evaluating Firm-Level Expected-Return Proxies: Implications for Estimating Treatment Effects
By: Charles M.C. Lee, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
We introduce a parsimonious framework for choosing among alternative expected-return proxies (ERPs) when estimating treatment effects. By comparing ERPs’ measurement-error variances in the cross section and in time series, we provide new evidence on the relative...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log-linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the...
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Keywords:
Expected Returns;
Present Value;
Investment Return;
Accounting;
Valuation;
Information;
Framework
- 2021
- Working Paper
Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement
By: George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon
We investigate whether ESG ratings predict future ESG news and the associated market reactions. We find that the consensus rating predicts future news, but its predictive ability diminishes for firms with large disagreement between raters. Relation between news and...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Real Credit Cycles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S....
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- January 2021
- Article
A Model of Relative Thinking
By: Benjamin Bushong, Matthew Rabin and Joshua Schwartzstein
Fixed differences loom smaller when compared to large differences. We propose a model of relative thinking where a person weighs a given change along a consumption dimension by less when it is compared to bigger changes along that dimension. In deterministic settings,...
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- November 2020
- Article
Casting Conference Calls
By: Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Private Equity and COVID-19
By: Paul A. Gompers, Steven N. Kaplan and Vladimir Mukharlyamov
We survey more than 200 private equity (PE) managers from firms with $1.9 trillion of assets under management (AUM) about their portfolio performance, decisionmaking and activities during the Covid-19 pandemic. Given that PE managers have significant incentives to...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Venture Capitalists and COVID-19
By: Paul A. Gompers, Will Gornall, Steven N. Kaplan and Ilya A. Strebulaev
We survey over 1,000 institutional and corporate venture capitalists (VCs) at more than 900 different firms to learn how their decisions and investments have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We compare their survey answers to those provided by a large sample of...
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- March 2020
- Technical Note
Influencer Marketing
By: Jill Avery and Ayelet Israeli
Despite a heavy barrage of advertising, most consumers declare that their purchases are most influenced by the experiences, advice, and recommendations of others, and not by marketers. Interpersonal communication between and among consumers serves as a potent path for...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds
We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
How ESG Issues Become Financially Material to Corporations and Their Investors
By: David Freiberg, Jean Rogers and George Serafeim
Management and disclosure of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues have received substantial interest over the last decade. In this paper, we outline a framework of how ESG issues become financially material, affecting corporate profitability and valuation....
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Keywords:
Materiality;
Esg;
Pharmaceutical Companies;
Business Ethics;
Sustainability;
Environment;
Disclosure;
Disclosure And Access;
Regulation;
Social Impact;
Environmental Sustainability;
Social Issues;
Corporate Governance;
Ethics;
Corporate Disclosure;
Corporate Accountability;
Resource Allocation;
Finance;
Accounting;
Valuation
- Fall 2018
- Article
The Value of Fit Information in Online Retail: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment
By: Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno
Online channels generate frictions when selling products with nondigital attributes, such as apparel. Customers may be reluctant to purchase products they have not been able to try on, and those customers who do purchase may return products when they do not fit as...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?
By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Celerier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée
This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these...
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- Fourth Quarter 2017
- Article
Optimal Tilts: Combining Persistent Characteristic Portfolios
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Terry Burnham
We examine the optimal weighting of four tilts in U.S. equity markets from 1968 through 2014. We define a “tilt” as a characteristic-based portfolio strategy that requires relatively low annual turnover. This is a continuum, with small size (a very persistent...
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- September 2017 (Revised February 2018)
- Case
Dinesh Moorjani and Hatch Labs
By: Shikhar Ghosh, Christopher Stanton, Allison Ciechanover and Jeff Huizinga
This case is about Tinder. It discusses different business models and ways of structuring the initial team. With a $6 million investment from IAC/Interactive in 2010, Dinesh Moorjani founded Hatch Labs to build mobile apps. His mission was to attract entrepreneurial...
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- 2017
- Article
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...
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- October 2016 (Revised February 2019)
- Module Note
Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan
By: Robert Simons
This module reading describes how to build a profit plan to reflect the strategy of a business in economic terms. After introducing the profit wheel, cash wheel, and ROE wheel, the module illustrates how to use a profit plan to assess the viability of different...
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Keywords:
Management Control Systems;
Implementing Strategy;
Execution;
Profit Planning;
Cash Flow Analysis;
Asset Utilization;
Return On Equity;
Business Planning;
Testing Strategy;
Analyzing Strategic Alternative;
Strategy;
Asset Management;
Cash Flow;
Investment Return;
Management Systems;
Profit
- 2017
- Working Paper
Self-Employment Dynamics and the Returns to Entrepreneurship
By: Eleanor W. Dillon and Christopher T. Stanton
Small business owners and others in self-employment have the option to transition to paid work. If there is initial uncertainty about entrepreneurial earnings, this option increases the expected lifetime value of self-employment relative to pay in a single year. This...
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- 2016
- Working Paper
The Great Training Robbery
By: Michael Beer, Magnus Finnstrom and Derek Schrader
In 2012 U.S. corporations spent $164.2 billion on training and education. Overwhelming evidence and experience shows, however, that most companies are unable to transfer employee learning into changes in individual and organization behavior or improved financial...
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