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    • All HBS Web  (1,854)
      • Faculty Publications  (79)

      Expected Returns Remove Expected Returns →

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      Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer
      Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
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      • April 2021
      • Article

      Evaluating Firm-Level Expected-Return Proxies: Implications for Estimating Treatment Effects

      By: Charles M.C. Lee, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We introduce a parsimonious framework for choosing among alternative expected-return proxies (ERPs) when estimating treatment effects. By comparing ERPs’ measurement-error variances in the cross section and in time series, we provide new evidence on the relative...  View Details
      Keywords: Implied Cost Of Capital; Expected Returns; Cost of Capital; Investment Return; Performance Evaluation
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      Lee, Charles M.C., Eric C. So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Evaluating Firm-Level Expected-Return Proxies: Implications for Estimating Treatment Effects." Review of Financial Studies 34, no. 4 (April 2021): 1907–1951.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer

      By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log-linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the...  View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Present Value; Investment Return; Accounting; Valuation; Information; Framework
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      Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-081, January 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement

      By: George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon
      We investigate whether ESG ratings predict future ESG news and the associated market reactions. We find that the consensus rating predicts future news, but its predictive ability diminishes for firms with large disagreement between raters. Relation between news and...  View Details
      Keywords: Esg; Esg (environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; Esg Disclosure; Esg Ratings; Esg Reporting; Esg Disclosure Metrics; Sustainability; Investments; News; Disagreement; Rating Disagreement; Ratings; Finance; Accounting; Investment; Financial Services Industry
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      Serafeim, George, and Aaron Yoon. "Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-079, January 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Real Credit Cycles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
      We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S....  View Details
      Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      A Model of Relative Thinking

      By: Benjamin Bushong, Matthew Rabin and Joshua Schwartzstein
      Fixed differences loom smaller when compared to large differences. We propose a model of relative thinking where a person weighs a given change along a consumption dimension by less when it is compared to bigger changes along that dimension. In deterministic settings,...  View Details
      Keywords: Relative Thinking; Econometric Models; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking
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      Bushong, Benjamin, Matthew Rabin, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "A Model of Relative Thinking." Review of Economic Studies 88, no. 1 (January 2021): 162–191.
      • November 2020
      • Article

      Casting Conference Calls

      By: Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
      We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on...  View Details
      Keywords: Strategic Release; Firms; Conference Calls; Information; Strategy; Asset Pricing
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      Cohen, Lauren, Dong Lou, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Casting Conference Calls." Management Science 66, no. 11 (November 2020): 5015–5039. (Winner of the First Prize, Crowell Memorial Award for Best Paper in Quantitative Investments, PanAgora Asset Management, 2014.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Private Equity and COVID-19

      By: Paul A. Gompers, Steven N. Kaplan and Vladimir Mukharlyamov
      We survey more than 200 private equity (PE) managers from firms with $1.9 trillion of assets under management (AUM) about their portfolio performance, decisionmaking and activities during the Covid-19 pandemic. Given that PE managers have significant incentives to...  View Details
      Keywords: Health Pandemics; Private Equity; Management; Investment Portfolio; Performance; Decision Making; Value Creation
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      Gompers, Paul A., Steven N. Kaplan, and Vladimir Mukharlyamov. "Private Equity and COVID-19." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27889, October 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Venture Capitalists and COVID-19

      By: Paul A. Gompers, Will Gornall, Steven N. Kaplan and Ilya A. Strebulaev
      We survey over 1,000 institutional and corporate venture capitalists (VCs) at more than 900 different firms to learn how their decisions and investments have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We compare their survey answers to those provided by a large sample of...  View Details
      Keywords: Venture Capital; Health Pandemics; Investment; Decision Making; Surveys
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      Gompers, Paul A., Will Gornall, Steven N. Kaplan, and Ilya A. Strebulaev. "Venture Capitalists and COVID-19." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27824, September 2020.
      • March 2020
      • Technical Note

      Influencer Marketing

      By: Jill Avery and Ayelet Israeli
      Despite a heavy barrage of advertising, most consumers declare that their purchases are most influenced by the experiences, advice, and recommendations of others, and not by marketers. Interpersonal communication between and among consumers serves as a potent path for...  View Details
      Keywords: Influencers; Marketing; Marketing Communications; Brands and Branding; Marketing Strategy; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Advertising Industry; Consumer Products Industry
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      Avery, Jill, and Ayelet Israeli. "Influencer Marketing." Harvard Business School Technical Note 520-075, March 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

      By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang
      We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of...  View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (etfs); Demand and Consumers; Investment; United States
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      Egan, Mark, Alexander J. MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26608, January 2020. (Revise and Resubmit at the Review of Economic Studies. Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-122, May 2020. Direct download. Revised August 2020.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      How ESG Issues Become Financially Material to Corporations and Their Investors

      By: David Freiberg, Jean Rogers and George Serafeim
      Management and disclosure of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues have received substantial interest over the last decade. In this paper, we outline a framework of how ESG issues become financially material, affecting corporate profitability and valuation....  View Details
      Keywords: Materiality; Esg; Pharmaceutical Companies; Business Ethics; Sustainability; Environment; Disclosure; Disclosure And Access; Regulation; Social Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Social Issues; Corporate Governance; Ethics; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Accountability; Resource Allocation; Finance; Accounting; Valuation
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      Freiberg, David, Jean Rogers, and George Serafeim. "How ESG Issues Become Financially Material to Corporations and Their Investors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-056, November 2019. (Revised November 2020.)
      • Fall 2018
      • Article

      The Value of Fit Information in Online Retail: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

      By: Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno
      Online channels generate frictions when selling products with nondigital attributes, such as apparel. Customers may be reluctant to purchase products they have not been able to try on, and those customers who do purchase may return products when they do not fit as...  View Details
      Keywords: Supply Chain Information; Fit Uncertainty; Online Retail; Randomized Field Experiment; Virtual Fitting Room; Digital Retail; Customization and Personalization; Online Technology; Value; Performance Improvement; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Retail Industry
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      Gallino, Santiago, and Antonio Moreno. "The Value of Fit Information in Online Retail: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 20, no. 4 (Fall 2018): 767–787.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach

      By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...  View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; discount rates; fundamental valuation; Present value; information quality; international equity markets; implied cost of capital; Investment Return; Equity; Markets; Global Range
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      Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-079, February 2018. (Revised January 2021. Conditionally Accepted. The Accounting Review.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?

      By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Celerier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée
      This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Innovation; Household Finance; Structured Products; Stock Market Participation; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Household; Behavior; Market Participation
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      Calvet, Laurent, Claire Celerier, Paolo Sodini, and Boris Vallée. "Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-066, January 2018. (Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Finance.)
      • Fourth Quarter 2017
      • Article

      Optimal Tilts: Combining Persistent Characteristic Portfolios

      By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Terry Burnham
      We examine the optimal weighting of four tilts in U.S. equity markets from 1968 through 2014. We define a “tilt” as a characteristic-based portfolio strategy that requires relatively low annual turnover. This is a continuum, with small size (a very persistent...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk Anomaly; Beta; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Factor Investing
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      Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Terry Burnham. "Optimal Tilts: Combining Persistent Characteristic Portfolios." Financial Analysts Journal 73, no. 4 (Fourth Quarter 2017): 75–89.
      • September 2017 (Revised February 2018)
      • Case

      Dinesh Moorjani and Hatch Labs

      By: Shikhar Ghosh, Christopher Stanton, Allison Ciechanover and Jeff Huizinga
      This case is about Tinder. It discusses different business models and ways of structuring the initial team. With a $6 million investment from IAC/Interactive in 2010, Dinesh Moorjani founded Hatch Labs to build mobile apps. His mission was to attract entrepreneurial...  View Details
      Keywords: Returns; Incubator; Mobile App; Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; Decision Choices and Conditions; Business Model; Mobile Technology; Talent and Talent Management; Valuation; Equity; Finance; United States; North America
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      Ghosh, Shikhar, Christopher Stanton, Allison Ciechanover, and Jeff Huizinga. "Dinesh Moorjani and Hatch Labs." Harvard Business School Case 818-026, September 2017. (Revised February 2018.)
      • 2017
      • Article

      Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

      By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
      The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management
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      Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
      • October 2016 (Revised February 2019)
      • Module Note

      Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan

      By: Robert Simons
      This module reading describes how to build a profit plan to reflect the strategy of a business in economic terms. After introducing the profit wheel, cash wheel, and ROE wheel, the module illustrates how to use a profit plan to assess the viability of different...  View Details
      Keywords: Management Control Systems; Implementing Strategy; Execution; Profit Planning; Cash Flow Analysis; Asset Utilization; Return On Equity; Business Planning; Testing Strategy; Analyzing Strategic Alternative; Strategy; Asset Management; Cash Flow; Investment Return; Management Systems; Profit
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      Simons, Robert. "Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan." Harvard Business School Module Note 117-105, October 2016. (Revised February 2019.)
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Self-Employment Dynamics and the Returns to Entrepreneurship

      By: Eleanor W. Dillon and Christopher T. Stanton
      Small business owners and others in self-employment have the option to transition to paid work. If there is initial uncertainty about entrepreneurial earnings, this option increases the expected lifetime value of self-employment relative to pay in a single year. This...  View Details
      Keywords: Self-employed; Small Business; Business Earnings; Entrepreneurship; Ownership; Compensation and Benefits
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      Dillon, Eleanor W., and Christopher T. Stanton. "Self-Employment Dynamics and the Returns to Entrepreneurship." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-022, September 2016. (Revised March 2018.)
      • 2016
      • Working Paper

      The Great Training Robbery

      By: Michael Beer, Magnus Finnstrom and Derek Schrader
      In 2012 U.S. corporations spent $164.2 billion on training and education. Overwhelming evidence and experience shows, however, that most companies are unable to transfer employee learning into changes in individual and organization behavior or improved financial...  View Details
      Keywords: Training; Organizations; Investment Return
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      Beer, Michael, Magnus Finnstrom, and Derek Schrader. "The Great Training Robbery." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-121, April 2016.
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      Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer
      Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
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