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      • Faculty Publications  (513)

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      • 2023
      • Article

      Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators

      By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in...  View Details
      Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Design; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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      Jakubowski, Benjamin, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators." Journal of Machine Learning Research 24, no. 133 (2023): 1–57.
      • May 2023
      • Article

      How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

      By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
      We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Debates; TV Debates; Voting; Political Elections; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Le Pennec, Caroline, and Vincent Pons. "How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138 (May 2023): 703–767.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Using GPT for Market Research

      By: James Brand, Ayelet Israeli and Donald Ngwe
      Large language models (LLMs) have quickly become popular as labor-augmenting tools for programming, writing, and many other processes that benefit from quick text generation. In this paper we explore the uses and benefits of LLMs for researchers and practitioners who...  View Details
      Keywords: Large Language Model; Research; AI and Machine Learning; Analysis; Customers; Consumer Behavior; Technology Industry; Information Technology Industry
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      Brand, James, Ayelet Israeli, and Donald Ngwe. "Using GPT for Market Research." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-062, April 2023.
      • April 2023
      • Technical Note

      An Art & A Science: How to Apply Design Thinking to Data Science Challenges

      By: Michael Parzen, Eddie Lin, Douglas Ng and Jessie Li
      We hear it all the time as managers: “what is the data that backs up your decisions?” Even local mom-and-pop shops now have access to complex point-of-sale systems that can closely track sales and customer data. Social media influencers have turned into seven-figure...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Framework; Analytics and Data Science
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      Parzen, Michael, Eddie Lin, Douglas Ng, and Jessie Li. "An Art & A Science: How to Apply Design Thinking to Data Science Challenges." Harvard Business School Technical Note 623-070, April 2023.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations.

      By: Edward McFowland III and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi
      Social influence cannot be identified from purely observational data on social networks, because such influence is generically confounded with latent homophily, that is, with a node’s network partners being informative about the node’s attributes and therefore its...  View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Homophily; Social Networks; Peer Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Power and Influence; Mathematical Methods
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      McFowland III, Edward, and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi. "Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 707–718.
      • April 2023
      • Article

      The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity

      By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
      We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'...  View Details
      Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Firm Level Data; Innovation; Productivity; Exporting; Importing; Credit Constraints; Currency Exchange Rate; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity
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      Alfaro, Laura, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger, and Yanping Liu. "The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity." Journal of the European Economic Association 21, no. 2 (April 2023): 637–689.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      A Welfare Analysis of Gambling in Video Games

      By: Tomomichi Amano and Andrey Simonov
      In 2020, gamers worldwide spent more than $15 billion on loot boxes, a lottery of virtual items built into video games. Loot boxes are contentious, as regulators worry that they constitute gambling. In contrast, video game companies maintain that loot boxes are...  View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Policy; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Product Design; Video Game Industry
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      Amano, Tomomichi, and Andrey Simonov. "A Welfare Analysis of Gambling in Video Games." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-052, February 2023.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Comparison of COVID-19 Hospitalization Costs across Care Pathways: A Patient-level Time-driven Activity-based Costing Analysis in a Brazilian Hospital

      By: Ricardo Bertoglio Cardoso, Miriam Allein Zago Marcolino, Milena Soriano Marcolino, Camila Felix Fortis, Leila Beltrami Moreira, Ana Paula Coutinho, Nadine Oliveira Clausell, Junaid Nabi, Robert S. Kaplan, Ana Paula Beck da Silva Etges and Carisi Anne Polanczyk
      The COVID-19 pandemic raised awareness of the need to better understand where and how patient-level costs are incurred in health care organizations. This study used time-driven activity-based costing to estimate COVID-19 patient-level hospital costs in a Brazilian...  View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Cost; Health Industry; Brazil
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      Cardoso, Ricardo Bertoglio, Miriam Allein Zago Marcolino, Milena Soriano Marcolino, Camila Felix Fortis, Leila Beltrami Moreira, Ana Paula Coutinho, Nadine Oliveira Clausell, Junaid Nabi, Robert S. Kaplan, Ana Paula Beck da Silva Etges, and Carisi Anne Polanczyk. "Comparison of COVID-19 Hospitalization Costs across Care Pathways: A Patient-level Time-driven Activity-based Costing Analysis in a Brazilian Hospital." BMC Health Services Research 23, no. 198 (2023).
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Complexity and Time

      By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
      We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives
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      Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Complexity and Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31047, March 2023.
      • March 2023
      • Article

      Learning to Successfully Hire in Online Labor Markets

      By: Marios Kokkodis and Sam Ransbotham
      Hiring in online labor markets involves considerable uncertainty: which hiring choices are more likely to yield successful outcomes and how do employers adjust their hiring behaviors to make such choices? We argue that employers will initially explore the value of...  View Details
      Keywords: Selection and Staffing; Analysis; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Kokkodis, Marios, and Sam Ransbotham. "Learning to Successfully Hire in Online Labor Markets." Management Science 69, no. 3 (March 2023): 1597–1614.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Crowding in Private Quality: The Equilibrium Effects of Public Spending in Education

      By: Tahir Andrabi, Natalie Bau, Jishnu Das, Asim Ijaz Khwaja and Naureen Karachiwalla
      We estimate the equilibrium effects of a public-school grant program administered through school councils in Pakistani villages with multiple public and private schools and clearly defined catchment boundaries. The program was randomized at the village-level, allowing...  View Details
      Keywords: Product Differentiation; Public Sector; Private Sector; Spending; Education; Competition
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      Andrabi, Tahir, Natalie Bau, Jishnu Das, Asim Ijaz Khwaja, and Naureen Karachiwalla. "Crowding in Private Quality: The Equilibrium Effects of Public Spending in Education." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30929, February 2023.
      • January 23, 2023
      • Article

      Digital Public Health Interventions at Scale: The Impact of Social Media Advertising on Beliefs and Outcomes Related to COVID Vaccines

      By: Susan Athey, Kristen Grabarz, Michael Luca and Nils Wernerfelt
      Public health organizations increasingly use social media advertising campaigns in pursuit of public health goals. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of about $40 million of social media advertisements that were run and experimentally tested on Facebook and...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Public Health; Vaccines; Social Media; Advertising; Power and Influence; Health Care and Treatment
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      Athey, Susan, Kristen Grabarz, Michael Luca, and Nils Wernerfelt. "Digital Public Health Interventions at Scale: The Impact of Social Media Advertising on Beliefs and Outcomes Related to COVID Vaccines." e2208110120. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120, no. 5 (January 23, 2023).
      • January 2023
      • Case

      Veeva Systems and the Transformation to a Public Benefit Corporation

      By: Ranjay Gulati and Allison M. Ciechanover
      Peter Gassner, the co-founder and CEO of Veeva Systems, steered the company through rapid scaling from its launch in 2007 to 2022. Year after year, the company had exceeded expectations, with its market capitalization reaching $50 billion at its peak. By 2022, the...  View Details
      Keywords: Transformation; Corporate Governance; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Organizational Culture; Information Technology Industry; Technology Industry; United States; California
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      Gulati, Ranjay, and Allison M. Ciechanover. "Veeva Systems and the Transformation to a Public Benefit Corporation." Harvard Business School Case 423-045, January 2023.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules

      By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
      The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a...  View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Precision Medicine; Uplift Modeling; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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      Imai, Kosuke, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 242–256.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Market for CEOs: Evidence from Private Equity

      By: Paul A. Gompers, Steven N. Kaplan and Vladimir Mukharlyamov
      Most research on the CEO labor market studies public company CEOs while largely ignoring CEOs in private equity (PE) funded companies. We fill this gap by studying the market for CEOs among U.S. companies purchased by PE firms in large leveraged buyout transactions....  View Details
      Keywords: CEOs; Jobs and Positions; Ownership; Recruitment
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      Gompers, Paul A., Steven N. Kaplan, and Vladimir Mukharlyamov. "The Market for CEOs: Evidence from Private Equity." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30899, April 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Too Many Managers: The Strategic Use of Titles to Avoid Overtime Payments

      By: Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun and N. Bugra Ozel
      We find widespread evidence of firms appearing to avoid paying overtime wages by exploiting a federal law that allows them to do so for employees termed as “managers” and paid a salary above a pre-defined dollar threshold. We show that listings for salaried positions...  View Details
      Keywords: Wages; Organizational Design; Job Design and Levels; Compensation and Benefits
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      Cohen, Lauren, Umit Gurun, and N. Bugra Ozel. "Too Many Managers: The Strategic Use of Titles to Avoid Overtime Payments." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30826, January 2023.
      • December 2022
      • Article

      'Just Letting You Know…': Underestimating Others' Desire for Constructive Feedback

      By: Nicole Abi-Esber, Jennifer E. Abel, Juliana Schroeder and Francesca Gino
      People often avoid giving feedback to others even when it would help fix a problem immediately. Indeed, in a pilot field study (N=155), only 2.6% of individuals provided feedback to survey administrators that the administrators had food or marker on their faces....  View Details
      Keywords: Feedback; Helping; Prosocial Behavior; Misprediction; Relationships; Interpersonal Communication; Perspective
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      Abi-Esber, Nicole, Jennifer E. Abel, Juliana Schroeder, and Francesca Gino. "'Just Letting You Know…': Underestimating Others' Desire for Constructive Feedback." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 123, no. 6 (December 2022): 1362–1385.
      • November 15, 2022
      • Article

      Using Simulations to Upskill Employees

      By: Frank V. Cespedes, Trond Aas, Alex Hunt and Huw Newton-Hill
      Reskilling employees tops the agenda in many organizations, according to a LinkedIn report. Korn Ferry estimates an 85-million person talent shortage by 2030, and McKinsey likens the challenge to the shift from agricultural to manufacturing work that occurred in the...  View Details
      Keywords: Employee Engagement; Managing People; Talent Development; Training; Human Capital; Experience and Expertise; Talent and Talent Management; Retention; Personal Development and Career
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      Cespedes, Frank V., Trond Aas, Alex Hunt, and Huw Newton-Hill. "Using Simulations to Upskill Employees." Harvard Business Review (website) (November 15, 2022).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      How Do Investors Value ESG?

      By: Malcolm Baker, Mark Egan and Suproteem K. Sarkar
      Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives have risen to near the top of the agenda for corporate executives and boards, driven in large part by their perceptions of shareholder interest. We quantify the value that shareholders place on ESG using a revealed...  View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Investment Portfolio; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Business and Shareholder Relations; Environmental Sustainability; Governance; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Baker, Malcolm, Mark Egan, and Suproteem K. Sarkar. "How Do Investors Value ESG?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30708, December 2022. (Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-028, November 2022.)
      • November 2022
      • Article

      Measuring Inequality beyond the Gini Coefficient May Clarify Conflicting Findings

      By: Kristin Blesch, Oliver P. Hauser and Jon M. Jachimowicz
      Prior research has found mixed results on how economic inequality is related to various outcomes. These contradicting findings may in part stem from a predominant focus on the Gini coefficient, which only narrowly captures inequality. Here, we conceptualize the...  View Details
      Keywords: Economic Inequalty; Gini Coefficient; Income Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Social Issues; Health; Status and Position
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      Blesch, Kristin, Oliver P. Hauser, and Jon M. Jachimowicz. "Measuring Inequality beyond the Gini Coefficient May Clarify Conflicting Findings." Nature Human Behaviour 6, no. 11 (November 2022): 1525–1536.
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