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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (3,718)
      • Faculty Publications  (456)

      Estimation Remove Estimation →

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      Large-Scale Demand Estimation with Search Data
      Exercise on Estimation
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      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Diagnosing Quality: Learning, Amenities, and the Demand for Health Care

      By: Jorge Tamayo, Achyuta Adhvaryu, Emilio Gutierrez and Anant Nyshadham
      We study the role of amenities in increasing demand for underutilized healthcare services. We evaluate the offer of a high-amenity diagnostic consultation for cataracts with a randomized price and find that a lower price for the high-amenity consultation increases...  View Details
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      Tamayo, Jorge, Achyuta Adhvaryu, Emilio Gutierrez, and Anant Nyshadham. "Diagnosing Quality: Learning, Amenities, and the Demand for Health Care." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-110, March 2021.
      • April 2021
      • Article

      Evaluating Firm-Level Expected-Return Proxies: Implications for Estimating Treatment Effects

      By: Charles M.C. Lee, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We introduce a parsimonious framework for choosing among alternative expected-return proxies (ERPs) when estimating treatment effects. By comparing ERPs’ measurement-error variances in the cross section and in time series, we provide new evidence on the relative...  View Details
      Keywords: Implied Cost Of Capital; Expected Returns; Cost of Capital; Investment Return; Performance Evaluation
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      Lee, Charles M.C., Eric C. So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Evaluating Firm-Level Expected-Return Proxies: Implications for Estimating Treatment Effects." Review of Financial Studies 34, no. 4 (April 2021): 1907–1951.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Accounting for Product Impact in the Water Utilities Industry

      By: George Serafeim and Katie Trinh
      We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the water utilities industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact estimates of water...  View Details
      Keywords: Product Innovation; Impact; Impact Investing; Impact Measurement; Esg; Esg (environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; Esg Ratings; Social Corporate Responsibility; Corporate Social Responsibility; Social Impact; Water; Utilities; Product Design; Product Positioning; Society; Product; Environmental Sustainability; Measurement and Metrics; Framework; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Utilities Industry
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      Serafeim, George, and Katie Trinh. "Accounting for Product Impact in the Water Utilities Industry." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-104, March 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Accounting for Product Impact in the Telecommunications Industry

      By: George Serafeim and Katie Trinh
      We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the telecommunications industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact estimates of network...  View Details
      Keywords: Product Innovation; Impact; Impact Investing; Impact Measurement; Esg; Esg (environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; Esg Ratings; Social Corporate Responsibility; Corporate Social Responsibility; Social Impact; Telecommunications; Product Design; Product Positioning; Society; Product; Environmental Sustainability; Measurement and Metrics; Framework; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Telecommunications Industry
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      Serafeim, George, and Katie Trinh. "Accounting for Product Impact in the Telecommunications Industry." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-105, March 2021.
      • March 18, 2021
      • Article

      A Feasibility Study Using Time-driven Activity-based Costing as a Management Tool for Provider Cost Estimation: Lessons from the National TB Control Program in Zimbabwe in 2018

      By: J. Chirenda, B. Nhlema Simwaka, C. Sandy, K. Bodnar, S. Corbin, P. Desai, T. Mapako, S. Shamu, C. Timire, E. Antonio, A. Makone, A. Birikorang, T. Mapuranga, M. Ngwenya, T. Masunda, M. Dube, E. Wandwalo, L. Morrison and R. S. Kaplan
      Background: This study used process maps and time-driven activity-based costing to document TB service delivery processes. The analysis identified the resources required to sustain TB services in Zimbabwe, as well as several opportunities for more effective and...  View Details
      Keywords: Time-driven Activity-based Costing; Provider Cost; Health Care and Treatment; Cost Management; Activity Based Costing and Management; Zimbabwe
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      Chirenda, J., B. Nhlema Simwaka, C. Sandy, K. Bodnar, S. Corbin, P. Desai, T. Mapako, S. Shamu, C. Timire, E. Antonio, A. Makone, A. Birikorang, T. Mapuranga, M. Ngwenya, T. Masunda, M. Dube, E. Wandwalo, L. Morrison, and R. S. Kaplan. "A Feasibility Study Using Time-driven Activity-based Costing as a Management Tool for Provider Cost Estimation: Lessons from the National TB Control Program in Zimbabwe in 2018." BMC Health Services Research 21, no. 242 (2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Population Interference in Panel Experiments

      By: Iavor I Bojinov, Kevin Wu Han and Guillaume Basse
      The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit's outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in...  View Details
      Keywords: Finite Population; Potential Outcomes; Dynamic Causal Effects; Mathematical Methods
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., Kevin Wu Han, and Guillaume Basse. "Population Interference in Panel Experiments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-100, March 2021.
      • March 2021
      • Article

      The Crowd Emotion Amplification Effect

      By: Amit Goldenberg, Erika Weisz, Timothy D. Sweeney, Mina Cikara and James Gross
      How do people go about reading a room or taking the temperature of a crowd? When people catch a brief glimpse of an array of faces, they can only focus their attention on some of the faces. We propose that perceivers preferentially attend to faces exhibiting strong...  View Details
      Keywords: Crowds; Social Cognition; Intergroup Dynamics; Emotions; Perception; Judgments; Analysis
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      Goldenberg, Amit, Erika Weisz, Timothy D. Sweeney, Mina Cikara, and James Gross. "The Crowd Emotion Amplification Effect." Psychological Science 32, no. 3 (March 2021): 437–450.
      • March 2021
      • Article

      The Impact of the General Data Protection Regulation on Internet Interconnection

      By: Ran Zhuo, Bradley Huffaker, KC Claffy and Shane Greenstein
      The Internet comprises thousands of independently operated networks, where bilaterally negotiated interconnection agreements determine the flow of data between networks. The European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) imposes strict restrictions on...  View Details
      Keywords: Personal Data; Privacy Regulation; Gdpr; Interconnection Agreements; Internet; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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      Zhuo, Ran, Bradley Huffaker, KC Claffy, and Shane Greenstein. "The Impact of the General Data Protection Regulation on Internet Interconnection." Telecommunications Policy 45, no. 2 (March 2021).
      • March 2021
      • Article

      The Effectiveness of White-Collar Crime Enforcement: Evidence from the War on Terror

      By: Trung Nguyen
      This paper analyzes the impact of changes in regulatory priorities and resource allocation on criminal enforcement of white‐collar criminal activities. Using the 9/11 terrorist attacks as a shock to the FBI's priorities and allocation of investigative resources, as...  View Details
      Keywords: White-collar Crime; Government Regulation; Financial Fraud; Securities Fraud; Insider Trading; Crime and Corruption; Finance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Law Enforcement
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      Nguyen, Trung. "The Effectiveness of White-Collar Crime Enforcement: Evidence from the War on Terror." Journal of Accounting Research 59, no. 1 (March 2021): 5–58.
      • March 2021
      • Article

      On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks

      By: Laura Alfaro, Manuel García-Santana and Enrique Moral-Benito
      We explore the real effects of bank-lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all Spanish firms with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset of all corporate loans from 2003 to 2013 to estimate...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Supply Shocks; Bank Lending Channel; Input-output Linkages; Output; Mechanisms; Trade Credits; Price Effects; Economics; Credit; System Shocks; Employment; Investment; Spain
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      Alfaro, Laura, Manuel García-Santana, and Enrique Moral-Benito. "On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks." Journal of Financial Economics 139, no. 3 (March 2021): 895–921.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      How Much Should We Trust Staggered Difference-In-Differences Estimates?

      By: Andrew C. Baker, David F. Larcker and Charles C.Y. Wang
      Difference-in-differences analysis with staggered treatment timing is frequently used to assess the impact of policy changes on corporate outcomes in academic research. However, recent advances in econometric theory show that such designs are likely to be biased in the...  View Details
      Keywords: Difference In Differences; Staggered Difference-in-differences Designs; Generalized Difference-in-differences; Dynamic Treatment Effects
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      Baker, Andrew C., David F. Larcker, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "How Much Should We Trust Staggered Difference-In-Differences Estimates?" European Corporate Governance Institute Finance Working Paper, No. 736/2021, February 2021. (Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-112, April 2021.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment

      By: Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani
      Contests that are designed to be consumed for entertainment by non-contestants are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. In this paper, we examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have more uncertain outcomes. We look to...  View Details
      Keywords: Contest Design; Information Preferences; Consumer Demand; Sports; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Demand and Consumers; Outcome or Result
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      Ferguson, Patrick J., and Karim R. Lakhani. "Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-087, February 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Do Policies to Increase Access to Treatment for Opioid Use Disorder Work?

      By: Leemore S. Dafny, Eric Barrette and Karen Shen
      As of 2016 there were an estimated 2.1 million Americans suffering from opioid use disorder (OUD). To date, most policy interventions have focused on curbing opioid prescriptions and extending insurance coverage to include substance use disorder. However, relatively...  View Details
      Keywords: Opioid Treatment; Medication-assisted Treatment; Substance Use Disorder; Private Insurance; Health Care and Treatment; Health Disorders; Insurance; United States
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      Dafny, Leemore S., Eric Barrette, and Karen Shen. "Do Policies to Increase Access to Treatment for Opioid Use Disorder Work?" Working Paper, February 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field

      By: Reshmaan Hussam, Natalia Rigol and Benjamin N. Roth
      Identifying high-growth microentrepreneurs in low-income countries remains a challenge due to a scarcity of verifiable information. With a cash grant experiment in India we demonstrate that community knowledge can help target high-growth microentrepreneurs; while the...  View Details
      Keywords: Microentrepreneurs; Community Information; Field Experiment; Entrepreneurship; Developing Countries and Economies; Financing and Loans; Information; Mathematical Methods
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      Hussam, Reshmaan, Natalia Rigol, and Benjamin N. Roth. "Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field." Working Paper, February 2021. (Conditionally Accepted, American Economic Review.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Housing Consumption and the Cost of Remote Work

      By: Christopher Stanton and Pratyush Tiwari
      This paper estimates housing choice differences between households with and without remote workers. Prior to the pandemic, the expenditure share on housing was more than seven percent higher for remote households compared to similar non-remote households in the same...  View Details
      Keywords: Remote Work; Geographic Mobility; Housing; Cost; Geographic Location; Income
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      Stanton, Christopher, and Pratyush Tiwari. "Housing Consumption and the Cost of Remote Work." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28483, February 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Private and Social Returns to R&D: Drug Development and Demographics

      By: Efraim Benmelech, Janice Eberly, Dimitris Papanikolaou and Joshua Krieger
      Investment in intangible capital—in particular, research and development—increased dramatically since the 1990s. However, output and measured productivity growth remains sluggish in recent years. One potential reason is that a significant share of the increase in...  View Details
      Keywords: Drug Development; Research and Development; Investment Return; Demographics; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Benmelech, Efraim, Janice Eberly, Dimitris Papanikolaou, and Joshua Krieger. "Private and Social Returns to R&D: Drug Development and Demographics." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-083, January 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer

      By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log-linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the...  View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Present Value; Investment Return; Accounting; Valuation; Information; Framework
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      Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-081, January 2021.
      • January 2021 (Revised March 2021)
      • Exercise

      E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms (A): Estimating Sales

      By: Ayelet Israeli and Fedor (Ted) Lisitsyn
      The E-Commerce Analytics group at the traditional CPG firm was in charge of compiling various online sales reports, as well as making data-driven recommendations for sales and marketing tactics. In a series of exercises, students address different data challenges for...  View Details
      Keywords: Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Cpg; Consumer Packaged Goods (cpg); Estimation; Online Channel; Retail Analytics; Retail; Retailing Industry; Data; Data Sharing; Bricks And Mortar; Ecommerce; Direct-to-consumer; Dtc; Data and Data Sets; Sales; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
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      Israeli, Ayelet, and Fedor (Ted) Lisitsyn. "E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms (A): Estimating Sales." Harvard Business School Exercise 521-078, January 2021. (Revised March 2021.)
      • January 2021 (Revised March 2021)
      • Supplement

      E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms (A): Estimating Sales

      By: Ayelet Israeli and Fedor (Ted) Lisitsyn
      The E-Commerce Analytics group at the traditional CPG firm was in charge of compiling various online sales reports, as well as making data-driven recommendations for sales and marketing tactics. In a series of exercises, students address different data challenges for...  View Details
      Keywords: Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Cpg; Consumer Packaged Goods (cpg); Estimation; Online Channel; Retail Analytics; Retail; Retailing Industry; Data; Data Sharing; Bricks And Mortar; Ecommerce; Data and Data Sets; Analysis; Sales; Goods and Commodities; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
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      Israeli, Ayelet, and Fedor (Ted) Lisitsyn. "E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms (A): Estimating Sales." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 521-712, January 2021. (Revised March 2021.)
      • January 2021
      • Supplement

      A Half-Deal

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Pedro Levindo and Carla Larangeira
      In June 2020, XP and Itaú faced intensified competition and tension in their partnership, with the latter owning a minority stake at XP. Two years earlier, in May 2017, Itaú had announced it would acquire 49.9% of XP for $1.8 billion, followed by three additional...  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech; Financing Strategy; Competition; Partners and Partnerships; Financing and Loans; Strategy; Latin America; Brazil
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Pedro Levindo, and Carla Larangeira. "A Half-Deal." Harvard Business School Supplement 221-058, January 2021.
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