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- 2024
- Working Paper
The Rise of Alternatives
By: Juliane Begenau, Pauline Liang and Emil Siriwardane
Since the 2000s, U.S. public pensions have shifted their risky investments towards alternative assets like private equity and hedge funds, some more aggressively than others. We explore several explanations for these cross-sectional trends, focusing on those implied by... View Details
- April 2024
- Article
A Machine Learning Algorithm Predicting Risk of Dilating VUR among Infants with Hydronephrosis Using UTD Classification
By: Hsin-Hsiao Scott Wang, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dylan Cahill, John Panagides, Tanya Logvinenko, Jeanne Chow and Caleb Nelson
Backgrounds: Urinary Tract Dilation (UTD) classification has been designed to be a more objective grading system to evaluate antenatal and post-natal UTD. Due to unclear association between UTD classifications to specific anomalies such as vesico-ureteral reflux (VUR),... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Cram Method for Efficient Simultaneous Learning and Evaluation
By: Zeyang Jia, Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
We introduce the "cram" method, a general and efficient approach to simultaneous learning and evaluation using a generic machine learning (ML) algorithm. In a single pass of batched data, the proposed method repeatedly trains an ML algorithm and tests its empirical... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning
- November 2023
- Article
Psychological Factors Underlying Attitudes toward AI Tools
By: Julian De Freitas, Stuti Agarwal, B. Schmitt and N. Haslam
What are the psychological factors driving attitudes toward AI tools, and how can resistance to AI systems be overcome when they are beneficial? In this perspective, we first organize the main sources of resistance into five main categories: opacity, emotionlessness,... View Details
- 2023
- Book
Right Kind of Wrong: The Science of Failing Well
By: Amy Edmondson
A revolutionary guide that will transform your relationship with failure, from the pioneering researcher of psychological safety and award-winning Harvard Business School professor Amy Edmondson.
We used to think of failure as the opposite of success. Now,... View Details
We used to think of failure as the opposite of success. Now,... View Details
- 2023
- Article
On Minimizing the Impact of Dataset Shifts on Actionable Explanations
By: Anna P. Meyer, Dan Ley, Suraj Srinivas and Himabindu Lakkaraju
The Right to Explanation is an important regulatory principle that allows individuals to request actionable explanations for algorithmic decisions. However, several technical challenges arise when providing such actionable explanations in practice. For instance, models... View Details
- 2023
- Article
On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation
By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details
- August 2023
- Article
Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?
By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée
This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these... View Details
- July 2023
- Article
Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments
By: Iavor I Bojinov, David Simchi-Levi and Jinglong Zhao
In switchback experiments, a firm sequentially exposes an experimental unit to a random treatment, measures its response, and repeats the procedure for several periods to determine which treatment leads to the best outcome. Although practitioners have widely adopted... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices
By: Umang Khetan, Jane Li, Ioana Neamtu and Ishita Sen
We study the extent of interest rate risk sharing across the financial system using granular positions and transactions data in interest rate swaps. We show that pension and insurance (PF&I) sector emerges as a natural counterparty to banks and corporations: overall,... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Second- versus Third-party Audit Quality: Evidence from Global Supply Chain Monitoring
By: Maria R. Ibanez, Ashley Palmarozzo, Jodi L. Short and Michael W. Toffel
Capitalizing on the superior credibility and flexibility and potential lower cost of external assessments, many global buyers are relying less on their own employee (“second-party”) auditors and more on third-party auditors to monitor and prevent environmental and... View Details
- April 2023
- Article
The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’
In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’
In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research... View Details
- January 2023
- Article
Psychological Safety Comes of Age: Observed Themes in an Established Literature
By: Amy C. Edmondson and Derrick P. Bransby
Since its renaissance in the 1990s, psychological safety research has
flourished—a boom motivated by recognition of the challenge of navigating uncertainty and change. Today, its theoretical and practical significance
is amplified by the increasingly complex and... View Details
- October 26, 2022
- Article
Climate Risk Is Growing. Is Your Company Prepared?
By: John D. Macomber
Most people don’t have a strategy for how to handle the worsening perils of flooding, wildfires and extreme heat. They should adopt a four-step process for protecting their property, whether it be a home or a business. First, they should prioritize how important... View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and... View Details
- 2021
- Working Paper
Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power
By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford
Claims about the market power of bank deposits in the banking literature are numerous and far reaching. Recently, a causal narrative has emerged in the banking literature: market power in bank deposits, measured as imperfect pass-through of short-term market rates on... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences
By: Mark Egan, Alexander MacKay and Hanbin Yang
We present an empirical model of portfolio choice that allows for the nonparametric estimation of investors' (subjective) expectations and risk preferences. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of 401(k) plans from 2009 through 2019, we explore heterogeneity in asset... View Details
- October 18, 2021
- Article
To Regulate Network-Based Platforms, Look at Their Data
By: Chiara Farronato and Daniel Björkegren
Historically, antitrust authorities have taken a laissez-faire approach under the assumption that it is better to err on the side of not intervening when there is uncertainty. This has allowed companies like Google and Facebook to go on a shopping spree to acquire... View Details
- June 2021
- Article
Deals in the Time of Pandemic
By: Guhan Subramanian and Caley Petrucci
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought new attention to the period between signing and closing in M&A transactions. Transactional planners heavily negotiate the provisions that govern the behavior of the parties during this window, not only to allocate risk between the... View Details