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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

The Imperfect Intermediation of Money-Like Assets
By: Jonathan Wallen and Jeremy C. Stein
We study supply-and-demand effects in the U.S. Treasury bill market by comparing the returns on T-bills to the administered policy rate on the Federal Reserve’s reverse repurchase (RRP) facility. In spite of the arguably more money-like properties of an investment in...  View Details
Keywords: Debt Securities; Demand and Consumers; Price
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  • February 2022
  • Article

Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century
By: Ufuk Akcigit, John Grigsby, Tom Nicholas and Stefanie Stantcheva
This paper studies the effect of corporate and personal taxes on innovation in the United States over the twentieth century. We build a panel of the universe of inventors who patent since 1920, and a historical state-level corporate tax database with corporate tax...  View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Income Taxes; Corporate Taxation; Firms; Inventors; State Taxation; Business Taxation; R＆D Tax Credits; Taxation; Innovation and Invention; History; United States
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Who Benefits from Online Gig Economy Platforms?
By: Christopher Stanton and Catherine Thomas
This paper estimates the magnitude and distribution of surplus from the knowledge worker gig economy using data from an online labor market. Labor demand elasticities determine workers’ wages, and buyers’ past market experience shapes both their job posting frequency...  View Details
Keywords: Gig Economy; Knowledge Workers; Online Platforms; Employment; Internet and the Web; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Wages; Digital Platforms
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime
By: Joseph Pacelli, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier and Yufeng Wu
On September 21st, 2020, a consortium of international journalists leaked nearly 2,500 suspicious activity reports (SAR) obtained from the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, exposing nearly $2 trillion of money laundering activity. The event raises important...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Institutions; Crime and Corruption; Policy
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  • 2021
  • Article

Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation
By: Benjamin B. Lockwood, Afras Sial and Matthew C. Weinzierl
Economists typically check the robustness of their results by comparing them across plausible ranges of parameter values and model structures. A preferable approach to robustness—for the purposes of policymaking and evaluation—is to design policy that takes these...  View Details
Keywords: Optimal Taxation; Income Tax; Social Welfare; Elasticity; Income; Taxation; Policy
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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective
By: Srikant Datar, Apurv Jain, Charles C.Y. Wang and Siyu Zhang
We provide a comprehensive examination of whether, to what extent, and which accounting variables are useful for improving the predictive accuracy of GDP growth forecasts. We leverage statistical models that accommodate a broad set of (341) variables—outnumbering the...  View Details
Keywords: Big Data; Elastic Net; GDP Growth; Machine Learning; Macro Forecasting; Short Fat Data; Accounting; Economic Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science
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  • March 2021
  • Article

Loan Guarantees and Credit Supply
By: Natalie Bachas, Olivia S. Kim and Constantine Yannelis
The efficiency of federal lending guarantees depends on whether guarantees increase lending supply or simply act as a subsidy to lenders. We use notches in the guarantee rate schedule for Small Business Administration (SBA) loans to estimate the elasticity of bank...  View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking; Credit
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

The Health Costs of Cost-Sharing
By: Amitabh Chandra, Evan Flack and Ziad Obermeyer
We use the design of Medicare’s prescription drug benefit program to demonstrate three facts about the health consequences of cost-sharing. First, we show that an as-if-random increase of 33.6% in out-of-pocket price (11.0 percentage points (p.p.) change in...  View Details
Keywords: Cost-sharing; Impact; Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Health; Consumer Behavior
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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Institutional Corporate Bond Pricing
By: Ishita Sen, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid and Varun Sharma
We compile a rich dataset that links institutional investors' position level holdings with corporate bond characteristics and estimate demand elasticities with respect to critical sources of risk. Persistence in institutions' holdings provide us with an instrument to...  View Details
Keywords: Corporate Bonds; Demand Systems; Insurance Companies; Mutual Funds; Liquidity; Bonds; Insurance; Investment Funds; Financial Liquidity
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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation
By: Benjami Lockwood, Afras Y. Sial and Matthew C. Weinzierl
Economists typically check the robustness of their results by comparing them across plausible ranges of parameter values and model structures. A preferable approach to robustness—for the purposes of policymaking and evaluation—is to design policy that takes these...  View Details
Keywords: Optimal Taxation; Robust Optimization; Taxation; Income; Policy; Design
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  • October 2020
  • Article

The Elasticity of Science
By: Kyle Myers
This paper identifies the degree to which scientists are willing to change the direction of their work in exchange for resources. Data from the National Institutes of Health are used to estimate how scientists respond to targeted funding opportunities. Inducing a...  View Details
Keywords: Scientists; Funding; Research; Change
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  • January 2020
  • Article

The Long-Run Dynamics of Electricity Demand: Evidence from Municipal Aggregation
By: Tatyana Deryugina, Alexander MacKay and Julian Reif
We study the dynamics of residential electricity demand by exploiting a natural experiment that produced large and long-lasting price changes in over 250 Illinois communities. Using a flexible difference-in-differences matching approach, we estimate that the price...  View Details
Keywords: Electricity Demand; Consumption Dynamics; Energy; Policy; Demand and Consumers; Price; Mathematical Methods
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  • November 2019
  • Supplement

Gillette: Cutting Prices to Regain Share
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher
After losing market share to low-priced competitors such as Harry’s and Dollar Shave Club for several years, Gillette decided to fight back by cutting prices on its razors and blades in April 2017. Bonnie Herzog, an equity analyst at Wells Fargo, must assess how the...  View Details
Keywords: Marketing Strategy; Product Positioning; Business Strategy; Competition; Price; Public Equity; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
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  • November 2019
  • Case

Gillette: Cutting Prices to Regain Share
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher
After losing market share to low-priced competitors such as Harry’s and Dollar Shave Club for several years, Gillette decided to fight back by launching new products and increasing advertising. When these efforts failed to stem the losses, Gillette decided to cut the...  View Details
Keywords: Marketing Strategy; Product Positioning; Business Strategy; Competition; Price; Public Equity; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
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  • October 2019
  • Article

Returns to Talent and the Finance Wage Premium
By: Boris Vallée and Claire Célérier
To study the role of talent in finance workers' pay, we exploit a special feature of the French higher education system. Wage returns to talent have been significantly higher and have risen faster in finance since the 1980s than in other sectors. Both wage returns to...  View Details
Keywords: Compensation; Finance; Compensation and Benefits; Wages; Banking Industry
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  • April 2019
  • Article

Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis
By: Laura Alfaro, Pol Antràs, Davin Chor and Paola Conconi
In recent decades, advances in information and communication technology and falling trade barriers have led firms to retain within their boundaries and in their domestic economies only a subset of their production stages. A key decision facing firms worldwide is the...  View Details
Keywords: Global Value Chains; Sequential Production; Incomplete Contracts; Demand and Consumers; Customer Value and Value Chain; Globalization
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  • 2019
  • Chapter

Behavioral Economics and Health-Care Markets
By: Amitabh Chandra, Benjamin Handel and Joshua Schwartzstein
This chapter summarizes research in behavioral health economics, focusing on insurance markets and product markets in health care. We argue that the prevalence of choice difficulties and biases leading to mistakes in these markets establish a special place for them in...  View Details
Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Consumer Behavior; Economics; Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Markets
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  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Need for Speed: The Impact of Website Performance on Online Retail
By: Santiago Gallino, Nil Karacaoglu and Antonio Moreno
The share of e-commerce sales is rapidly increasing and so are the associated losses generated by website outages and slow websites. We leverage novel retail and website performance data to investigate the impact of website performance on online sales. This question is...  View Details
Keywords: Online Retail; Quasi-experiments; Abandonment; Synthetic Control; Internet and the Web; Performance; Service Operations
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  • 2019
  • Working Paper

Large-Scale Demand Estimation with Search Data
By: Tomomichi Amano, Andrew Rhodes and Stephan Seiler
In many online markets, traditional methods of demand estimation are difficult to implement because assortments are very large and individual products are sold infrequently. At the same time, data on consumer search (i.e., browsing) behavior are often available and are...  View Details
Keywords: High-dimensional Data; Demand Estimation; Consideration Sets; Consumer Search
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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Incentive Power and Knowledge Sharing Among Employees: Evidence from the Field
By: Wei Cai, Susanna Gallani and Jee-Eun Shin
There is consensus, both in the literature and in practice, about knowledge sharing within organizations being a key determinant of success. However, organizations struggle to sustain employees’ engagement in knowledge sharing. One challenge lies in the fact that,...  View Details
Keywords: Organizational Knowledge Sharing; Employee Driven Innovation; Innovation Appropriability; Contract Design; High-powered Incentives; Low-powered Incentives; Incentives; Pay-for-Performance; Rank-and-file; Employees; Knowledge Sharing; Innovation and Invention; Motivation and Incentives; Creativity; Performance
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