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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (2,987)
      • Faculty Publications  (558)

      Economic Value Estimation Remove Economic Value Estimation →

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

      By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov
      Predictive model development is understudied despite its importance to modern businesses. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms) as the primary driver of model quality, the value of tools...  View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science
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      Yue, Daniel, Paul Hamilton, and Iavor Bojinov. "Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-029, December 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Contribution of High-Skilled Immigrants to Innovation in the United States

      By: Shai Bernstein, Rebecca Diamond, Abhisit Jiranaphawiboon, Timothy McQuade and Beatriz Pousada
      We characterize the contribution of immigrants to US innovation, both through their direct productivity as well as through their indirect spillover effects on their native collaborators. To do so, we link patent records to a database containing the first five digits of...  View Details
      Keywords: Innovation; Economic Growth; Immigrants; Innovation and Invention; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Patents; Innovation Strategy
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      Bernstein, Shai, Rebecca Diamond, Abhisit Jiranaphawiboon, Timothy McQuade, and Beatriz Pousada. "The Contribution of High-Skilled Immigrants to Innovation in the United States." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-065, December 2021. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30797, December 2022.)
      • Winter 2022
      • Article

      Vaccines and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from Failure and Success

      By: Scott Duke Kominers and Alex Tabarrok
      The losses from the global COVID-19 pandemic have been staggering—trillions in economic costs, on top of significant losses of life, health, and well-being. The world made significant and successful investments in vaccines to mitigate the pandemic, yet there were...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Vaccination; Market Design; Health Pandemics; Loss; Outcome or Result; Opportunities; Crisis Management
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      Kominers, Scott Duke, and Alex Tabarrok. "Vaccines and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from Failure and Success." Oxford Review of Economic Policy 38, no. 4 (Winter 2022): 719–741.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      How Do Investors Value ESG?

      By: Malcolm Baker, Mark Egan and Suproteem K. Sarkar
      Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives have risen to near the top of the agenda for corporate executives and boards, driven in large part by their perceptions of shareholder interest. We quantify the value that shareholders place on ESG using a revealed...  View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Investment Portfolio; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Business and Shareholder Relations; Environmental Sustainability; Governance; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Baker, Malcolm, Mark Egan, and Suproteem K. Sarkar. "How Do Investors Value ESG?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30708, December 2022. (Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-028, November 2022.)
      • November 2022
      • Article

      Measuring Inequality beyond the Gini Coefficient May Clarify Conflicting Findings

      By: Kristin Blesch, Oliver P. Hauser and Jon M. Jachimowicz
      Prior research has found mixed results on how economic inequality is related to various outcomes. These contradicting findings may in part stem from a predominant focus on the Gini coefficient, which only narrowly captures inequality. Here, we conceptualize the...  View Details
      Keywords: Economic Inequalty; Gini Coefficient; Income Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Social Issues; Health; Status and Position
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      Blesch, Kristin, Oliver P. Hauser, and Jon M. Jachimowicz. "Measuring Inequality beyond the Gini Coefficient May Clarify Conflicting Findings." Nature Human Behaviour 6, no. 11 (November 2022): 1525–1536.
      • November 2022
      • Article

      The Psychosocial Value of Employment: Evidence from a Refugee Camp

      By: Reshmaan Hussam, Erin M. Kelley, Gregory Lane and Fatima Zahra
      Employment may be important to wellbeing for reasons beyond its role as an income source. This paper presents a causal estimate of the psychosocial value of employment in refugee camps in Bangladesh. We involve 745 individuals in a field experiment with three arms: a...  View Details
      Keywords: Psychosocial Wellbeing; Employment; Refugees; Well-being
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      Hussam, Reshmaan, Erin M. Kelley, Gregory Lane, and Fatima Zahra. "The Psychosocial Value of Employment: Evidence from a Refugee Camp." American Economic Review 112, no. 11 (November 2022): 3694–3724.
      • October 25, 2022
      • Article

      Why Sharing Economic Growth with the Community Is Good Business

      By: José A. Tiburcio, Lino Miguel Dias and Robert S. Kaplan
      Subsistence dairy ranchers in Central America struggle to stay afloat during the dry season when grass is scarce. Global life sciences company Bayer has launched a program to enable them to produce their own corn silage feed. The results of this program are helping to...  View Details
      Keywords: Sharing Economy; Innovation; Economic Growth; Poverty; Production; Supply Chain; Social Enterprise; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Central America
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      Tiburcio, José A., Lino Miguel Dias, and Robert S. Kaplan. "Why Sharing Economic Growth with the Community Is Good Business." Harvard Business Review (website) (October 25, 2022).
      • September 2022
      • Background Note

      On CUE: The Quest for Optimal Customer Unit Economics

      By: Elie Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller
      Startups are often evaluated by how well they perform on unit economics, defined as the ratio of a customer’s lifetime value (LTV) to acquisition costs (CAC). A common target for unit economics, advocated by many VCs and analysts, is 3:1 (i.e., LTV/CAC=3). While there...  View Details
      Keywords: Unit Economics; Business Startups; Performance Evaluation; Customer Value and Value Chain; Customer Relationship Management; Analysis
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      Ofek, Elie, Barak Libai, and Eitan Muller. "On CUE: The Quest for Optimal Customer Unit Economics." Harvard Business School Background Note 523-050, September 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Consumer Demand with Social Influences: Evidence from an E-Commerce Platform

      By: El Hadi Caoui, Chiara Farronato, John J. Horton and Robert Schultz
      For some kinds of goods, rarity itself is valued. "Fashionable'" goods are demanded in part because they are unique. In this paper, we explore the economics of rare goods using auctions of limited-edition shoes held by an e-commerce platform. We model endogenous entry...  View Details
      Keywords: Rare Goods; Scarcity; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Auctions
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      Caoui, El Hadi, Chiara Farronato, John J. Horton, and Robert Schultz. "Consumer Demand with Social Influences: Evidence from an E-Commerce Platform." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30351, August 2022.
      • July 2022 (Revised September 2022)
      • Case

      Birla Carbon Egypt: Building Soft Power in a Foreign Country

      By: Jeremy Friedman and Malini Sen
      Birla Carbon, a flagship business of the nearly $60-billion global conglomerate and India-headquartered Aditya Birla Group (ABG), is one of the world's top manufacturers and suppliers of high-quality carbon black. The largest among its 16 manufacturing plants is Birla...  View Details
      Keywords: Acquisition; Family Business; Disruption; Transformation; Diversity; Trade; Energy; Values and Beliefs; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Global Strategy; Government and Politics; Private Ownership; Civil Society or Community; Risk and Uncertainty; Value Creation; Industrial Products Industry; Rubber Industry; Egypt; Africa; India; Asia; Atlanta; United States
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      Friedman, Jeremy, and Malini Sen. "Birla Carbon Egypt: Building Soft Power in a Foreign Country." Harvard Business School Case 723-003, July 2022. (Revised September 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Does the Invisible Hand Efficiently Guide Entry and Exit? Evidence from a Vegetable Market Experiment in India

      By: Abhijit Banerjee, Greg Fischer, Dean Karlan, Matt Lowe and Benjamin N. Roth
      What accounts for the ubiquity of small vendors operating side-by-side in the urban centers of developing countries? Why don’t competitive forces drive some vendors out of the market? We ran an experiment in Kolkata vegetable markets in which we induced...  View Details
      Keywords: Collusion; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Small Business; Microeconomics; Kolkata
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      Banerjee, Abhijit, Greg Fischer, Dean Karlan, Matt Lowe, and Benjamin N. Roth. "Does the Invisible Hand Efficiently Guide Entry and Exit? Evidence from a Vegetable Market Experiment in India." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-006, July 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Measuring the Tolerance of the State: Theory and Application to Protest

      By: Veli Andirin, Yusuf Neggers, Mehdi Shadmehr and Jesse M. Shapiro
      We develop a measure of a regime's tolerance for an action by its citizens. We ground our measure in an economic model and apply it to the setting of political protest. In the model, a regime anticipating a protest can take a costly action to repress it. We define the...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Protests; Modeling And Analysis; Government and Politics; Conflict and Resolution
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      Andirin, Veli, Yusuf Neggers, Mehdi Shadmehr, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Measuring the Tolerance of the State: Theory and Application to Protest." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30167, June 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Case

      Third Point in 2020: Growth is Where the Value is?

      By: Robin Greenwood, James Williams and Denise Han
      In early May 2020, Daniel Loeb’s team at Third Point was evaluating a potential growth opportunity in the Walt Disney Company and whether investor activism might play a role. Battered by the effects of COVID-19, the company’s stock had initially tumbled to $86 and then...  View Details
      Keywords: Growth; Equity; Disney; Value; COVID-19 Pandemic; Economics; Strategy; Growth and Development; Investment Return; Opportunities; Business and Stakeholder Relations; North America
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      Greenwood, Robin, James Williams, and Denise Han. "Third Point in 2020: Growth is Where the Value is?" Harvard Business School Case 222-029, May 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Supplement

      Third Point in 2020: Growth is Where the Value is? (B)

      By: Robin Greenwood and Denise Han
      In early May 2020, Daniel Loeb’s team at Third Point was evaluating a potential growth opportunity in the Walt Disney Company and whether investor activism might play a role. Battered by the effects of COVID-19, the company’s stock had initially tumbled to $86 and then...  View Details
      Keywords: Growth; Equity; Disney; Value; Economics; Finance; Investment; Strategy; Management; Investment Activism; Investment Return; Growth and Development; North America
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Denise Han. "Third Point in 2020: Growth is Where the Value is? (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 222-030, May 2022.
      • March 2022
      • Case

      DealShare: Social E-Commerce for the Indian Mass Market

      By: Krishna G. Palepu and Malini Sen
      Launched in September 2018, e-retail startup DealShare has created a tech-enabled model for the Indian mass market that allows customers to buy together, save money on good quality goods, and at the same time have fun. It targets customers who are still getting used to...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Disruption; Trends; Talent and Talent Management; Customer Focus and Relationships; Value; Cost vs Benefits; Value Creation; Internet and the Web; India
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      Palepu, Krishna G., and Malini Sen. "DealShare: Social E-Commerce for the Indian Mass Market." Harvard Business School Case 322-099, March 2022.
      • Article

      Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach

      By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...  View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Fundamental Valuation; Implied Cost Of Capital; International Equity Markets; Present Value; Investment Return; Equity; Markets; Global Range
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      Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Accounting Review 97, no. 2 (March 2022): 107–133.
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field

      By: Reshmaan Hussam, Natalia Rigol and Benjamin N. Roth
      Identifying high-growth microentrepreneurs in low-income countries remains a challenge due to a scarcity of verifiable information. With a cash grant experiment in India we demonstrate that community knowledge can help target high-growth microentrepreneurs; while the...  View Details
      Keywords: Microentrepreneurs; Community Information; Field Experiment; Loans; Entrepreneurship; Developing Countries and Economies; Financing and Loans; Information; Mathematical Methods; India
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      Hussam, Reshmaan, Natalia Rigol, and Benjamin N. Roth. "Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field." American Economic Review 112, no. 3 (March 2022): 861–898.
      • February 2022 (Revised December 2022)
      • Case

      Jaypee Infratech and the Indian Bankruptcy Code

      By: Kristin Mugford, William Vrattos and Radhika Kak
      In 2016, India passed a new bankruptcy law (IBC) to counter a brewing bank crisis and increased corporate distress. Homebuilder Jaypee Infratech, one of India largest distressed companies (the “dirty dozen”) began restructuring under the IBC in 2017. Two years later,...  View Details
      Keywords: Restructuring; Decisions; Judgments; Voting; Developing Countries and Economies; Financial Crisis; Public Sector; Asset Pricing; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Credit; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Debt Securities; Bonds; Investment Return; Price; Government Legislation; Laws and Statutes; Bids and Bidding; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Real Estate Industry; India; Delhi
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      Mugford, Kristin, William Vrattos, and Radhika Kak. "Jaypee Infratech and the Indian Bankruptcy Code." Harvard Business School Case 222-071, February 2022. (Revised December 2022.)
      • Working Paper

      Electoral Turnovers

      By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
      In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and...  View Details
      Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement
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      Marx, Benjamin, Vincent Pons, and Vincent Rollet. "Electoral Turnovers." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29766, February 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is

      By: Alex Chinco and Marco Sammon
      We estimate that passive investors held 37.8% of the US stock market in 2020. This value comes from studying the closing volumes of index additions and deletions on reconstitution day. 37.8% is more than double the widely accepted previous estimate of 15%, which...  View Details
      Keywords: Indexing; Passive Investing; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Russell Reconstitution Day; Trading Volume; Information-based Asset Pricing; Investment; Investment Funds; Asset Pricing
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      Chinco, Alex, and Marco Sammon. "The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is." Working Paper, August 2022.
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