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- 2022
- Working Paper
Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development
Predictive model development is understudied despite its importance to modern businesses. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms) as the primary driver of model quality, the value of tools...
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Keywords:
Analytics and Data Science
- 2021
- Working Paper
The Contribution of High-Skilled Immigrants to Innovation in the United States
By: Shai Bernstein, Rebecca Diamond, Abhisit Jiranaphawiboon, Timothy McQuade and Beatriz Pousada
We characterize the contribution of immigrants to US innovation, both through their direct productivity as well as through their indirect spillover effects on their native collaborators. To do so, we link patent records to a database containing the first five digits of...
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- Winter 2022
- Article
Vaccines and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from Failure and Success
By: Scott Duke Kominers and Alex Tabarrok
The losses from the global COVID-19 pandemic have been staggering—trillions in economic costs, on top of significant losses of life, health, and well-being. The world made significant and successful investments in vaccines to mitigate the pandemic, yet there were...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
How Do Investors Value ESG?
By: Malcolm Baker, Mark Egan and Suproteem K. Sarkar
Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives have risen to near the top of the agenda for corporate executives and boards, driven in large part by their perceptions of shareholder interest. We quantify the value that shareholders place on ESG using a revealed...
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- November 2022
- Article
Measuring Inequality beyond the Gini Coefficient May Clarify Conflicting Findings
By: Kristin Blesch, Oliver P. Hauser and Jon M. Jachimowicz
Prior research has found mixed results on how economic inequality is related to various outcomes. These contradicting findings may in part stem from a predominant focus on the Gini coefficient, which only narrowly captures inequality. Here, we conceptualize the...
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- November 2022
- Article
The Psychosocial Value of Employment: Evidence from a Refugee Camp
By: Reshmaan Hussam, Erin M. Kelley, Gregory Lane and Fatima Zahra
Employment may be important to wellbeing for reasons beyond its role as an income source. This paper presents a causal estimate of the psychosocial value of employment in refugee camps in Bangladesh. We involve 745 individuals in a field experiment with three arms: a...
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- October 25, 2022
- Article
Why Sharing Economic Growth with the Community Is Good Business
By: José A. Tiburcio, Lino Miguel Dias and Robert S. Kaplan
Subsistence dairy ranchers in Central America struggle to stay afloat during the dry season when grass is scarce. Global life sciences company Bayer has launched a program to enable them to produce their own corn silage feed. The results of this program are helping to...
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- September 2022
- Background Note
On CUE: The Quest for Optimal Customer Unit Economics
By: Elie Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller
Startups are often evaluated by how well they perform on unit economics, defined as the ratio of a customer’s lifetime value (LTV) to acquisition costs (CAC). A common target for unit economics, advocated by many VCs and analysts, is 3:1 (i.e., LTV/CAC=3). While there...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Consumer Demand with Social Influences: Evidence from an E-Commerce Platform
By: El Hadi Caoui, Chiara Farronato, John J. Horton and Robert Schultz
For some kinds of goods, rarity itself is valued. "Fashionable'" goods are demanded in part because they are unique. In this paper, we explore the economics of rare goods using auctions of limited-edition shoes held by an e-commerce platform. We model endogenous entry...
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- July 2022 (Revised September 2022)
- Case
Birla Carbon Egypt: Building Soft Power in a Foreign Country
By: Jeremy Friedman and Malini Sen
Birla Carbon, a flagship business of the nearly $60-billion global conglomerate and India-headquartered Aditya Birla Group (ABG), is one of the world's top manufacturers and suppliers of high-quality carbon black. The largest among its 16 manufacturing plants is Birla...
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Keywords:
Acquisition;
Family Business;
Disruption;
Transformation;
Diversity;
Trade;
Energy;
Values and Beliefs;
Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues;
Global Strategy;
Government and Politics;
Private Ownership;
Civil Society or Community;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Value Creation;
Industrial Products Industry;
Rubber Industry;
Egypt;
Africa;
India;
Asia;
Atlanta;
United States
- 2022
- Working Paper
Does the Invisible Hand Efficiently Guide Entry and Exit? Evidence from a Vegetable Market Experiment in India
By: Abhijit Banerjee, Greg Fischer, Dean Karlan, Matt Lowe and Benjamin N. Roth
What accounts for the ubiquity of small vendors operating side-by-side in the urban centers
of developing countries? Why don’t competitive forces drive some vendors out of the
market? We ran an experiment in Kolkata vegetable markets in which we induced...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Measuring the Tolerance of the State: Theory and Application to Protest
By: Veli Andirin, Yusuf Neggers, Mehdi Shadmehr and Jesse M. Shapiro
We develop a measure of a regime's tolerance for an action by its citizens. We ground our measure in an economic model and apply it to the setting of political protest. In the model, a regime anticipating a protest can take a costly action to repress it. We define the...
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- May 2022
- Case
Third Point in 2020: Growth is Where the Value is?
By: Robin Greenwood, James Williams and Denise Han
In early May 2020, Daniel Loeb’s team at Third Point was evaluating a potential growth opportunity in the Walt Disney Company and whether investor activism might play a role. Battered by the effects of COVID-19, the company’s stock had initially tumbled to $86 and then...
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- May 2022
- Supplement
Third Point in 2020: Growth is Where the Value is? (B)
By: Robin Greenwood and Denise Han
In early May 2020, Daniel Loeb’s team at Third Point was evaluating a potential growth opportunity in the Walt Disney Company and whether investor activism might play a role. Battered by the effects of COVID-19, the company’s stock had initially tumbled to $86 and then...
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- March 2022
- Case
DealShare: Social E-Commerce for the Indian Mass Market
By: Krishna G. Palepu and Malini Sen
Launched in September 2018, e-retail startup DealShare has created a tech-enabled model for the Indian mass market that allows customers to buy together, save money on good quality goods, and at the same time have fun. It targets customers who are still getting used to...
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- Article
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...
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- March 2022
- Article
Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field
Identifying high-growth microentrepreneurs in low-income countries remains a challenge due to a scarcity of verifiable information. With a cash grant experiment in India we demonstrate that community knowledge can help target high-growth microentrepreneurs; while the...
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- February 2022 (Revised December 2022)
- Case
Jaypee Infratech and the Indian Bankruptcy Code
By: Kristin Mugford, William Vrattos and Radhika Kak
In 2016, India passed a new bankruptcy law (IBC) to counter a brewing bank crisis and increased corporate distress. Homebuilder Jaypee Infratech, one of India largest distressed companies (the “dirty dozen”) began restructuring under the IBC in 2017. Two years later,...
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Keywords:
Restructuring;
Decisions;
Judgments;
Voting;
Developing Countries and Economies;
Financial Crisis;
Public Sector;
Asset Pricing;
Borrowing and Debt;
Corporate Finance;
Credit;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Debt Securities;
Bonds;
Investment Return;
Price;
Government Legislation;
Laws and Statutes;
Bids and Bidding;
Business and Stakeholder Relations;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Valuation;
Real Estate Industry;
India;
Delhi
- Working Paper
Electoral Turnovers
By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is
By: Alex Chinco and Marco Sammon
We estimate that passive investors held 37.8% of the US stock market in 2020.
This value comes from studying the closing volumes of index additions and
deletions on reconstitution day. 37.8% is more than double the widely accepted
previous estimate of 15%, which...
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