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  • May 2022
  • Case

America's Budget Impasse, 2009-2022
By: Richard H.K. Vietor
The United States has been a fiscal mess for years…at least since the financial crisis in 2009. This case describes the U.S. economy during the presidencies of Barack Obama, Donald Trump and now, Joe Biden’s first year. The case is composed of excerpts from the...  View Details
Keywords: Growth; Fiscal Deficits; Unemployment; Balance Of Payments; United States; Macroeconomics; Taxes; Fiscal Policy; Economy; Performance; Taxation; Budgets and Budgeting; Economic Growth; Business and Government Relations; United States
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  • 2022
  • Chapter

Of Learning and Forgetting: Centrism, Populism, and the Legitimacy Crisis of Globalization
By: Rawi Abdelal
Every order is a bargain with disappointments and trade-offs. Thus is every order an unstable equilibrium. The first era of globalization, circa 1870–1914, created both international prosperity and domestic instability. That instability was fully realized during the...  View Details
Keywords: Globalization; Policy; Economic Systems; Balance and Stability; Europe; European Union; United States
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  • May 2022
  • Article

Policy Stringency and Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Longitudinal Analysis of Data from 15 Countries
By: Lara B. Aknin, Bernardo Andretti, Rafael Goldszmidt, John F. Helliwell, Anna Petherick, Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, Elizabeth W. Dunn, Daisy Fancourt, Elkhonon Goldberg, Sarah P. Jones, Ozge Karadag, Elie Karam, Richard Layard, Shekhar Saxena, Emily Thornton, Ashley Whillans and Jamil Zaki
To date, public health policies implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have been evaluated on the basis of their ability to reduce transmission and minimise economic harm. We aimed to assess the association between COVID-19 policy restrictions and mental health...  View Details
Keywords: Public Health; COVID-19; Mental Health; Policy; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Well-being
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  • April 27, 2022
  • Article

Inequality in Researchers' Minds: Four Guiding Questions for Studying Subjective Perceptions of Economic Inequality
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Shai Davidai, Daniela Goya-Tocchetto, Barnabas Szaszi, Martin Day, Stephanie Tepper, L. Taylor Phillips, M. Usman Mirza, Nailya Ordabayeva and Oliver P. Hauser
Subjective perceptions of inequality can substantially influence policy attitudes, public health metrics, and societal well-being, but the lack of consensus in the scientific community on how to best operationalize and measure these perceptions may impede progress on...  View Details
Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Perception; Analysis
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  • 2022
  • Chapter

Capitalism and the Environment
By: Geoffrey Jones
Capitalism drove the environmental decimation of the planet. The environment was seen as a free good, while the consequences of dirty industrial and agricultural processes were seen as external to the firm. Public policies largely allowed this to happen, as politicians...  View Details
Keywords: History; Environment; Sustainability; Capitalism; Ethics; Business History; Environmental Sustainability; Green Technology; Pollution; Climate Change
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  • April 2022
  • Article

Going Out or Opting Out? Capital, Political Vulnerability, and the State in China's Outward Investment
By: Meg Rithmire
How do state-business relations interact with outward investment in authoritarian regimes? This paper examines this question in the context of China’s rapid transformation into a major capital exporter. While most political economy scholarship focuses on firms’...  View Details
Keywords: Outward Investment; Capital Controls; Corruption; Foreign Direct Investment; Political Economy; State-owned Enterprises; Investment; Global Range; Capital; Globalization; Policy; Government and Politics; China
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  • April 2022
  • Article

Predictable Financial Crises
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?
By: Laura Alfaro, Maggie X. Chen and Davin Chor
We investigate the role of evidence-based information in shaping individuals' preferences for trade policies through a series of survey experiments that contain randomized information treatments. Each information treatment provides a concise statement of...  View Details
Keywords: Evidence; Preference; Trade Policy; Information; Trade; Policy; Attitudes
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  • February 2022 (Revised April 2022)
  • Case

BUA Group
By: John D. Macomber, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Wale Lawal
BUA Group must decide between investments in cement, road building, power generation, or sugar. Private businesses are important to economic development in Africa. Students must assess the competitive nature of each of these industries, the magnitude of capital...  View Details
Keywords: Investing; Transportation; Strategy; Project Finance; Agribusiness; Construction; Infrastructure; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Nigeria; Africa
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  • 2022
  • Chapter

Creating 'Smart' Policy to Promote Entrepreneurship and Innovation
By: Karen G. Mills and Annie Dang
Entrepreneurship is a key to unlocking innovation and fostering regional and national economic productivity. Extensive studies demonstrate that small and young firms contribute to innovation and employment growth. But which of the many types of small firms are...  View Details
Keywords: Economic Policy; High-growth; Entrepreneurship; Innovation and Invention; Business Startups; Economic Growth; Policy; United States
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  • Working Paper

Electoral Turnovers
By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and...  View Details
Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement
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  • 2022
  • Chapter

The Servicification of the U.S. Economy: The Role of Startups versus Incumbent Firms
By: Mercedes Delgado, J. Daniel Kim and Karen G. Mills
Over the last few decades, the U.S. economy has exhibited a significant shift from manufacturing towards services. This transition has been particularly prominent in an important subcategory of services industries that drives innovation and employs many high-wage...  View Details
Keywords: Servicification; Supply Chain Industries; STEM Labor; Innovation; Growth; Entrepreneurship; Innovation and Invention; Economic Growth; Policy; Service Industry; United States
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?
By: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis and Marco Sammon
We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...  View Details
Keywords: Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Dynamic Pricing Algorithms, Consumer Harm, and Regulatory Response
By: Alexander J. MacKay and Samuel Weinstein
Pricing algorithms are rapidly transforming markets, from ride-sharing apps, to air travel, to online retail. Regulators and scholars have watched this development with a wary eye. Their focus so far has been on the potential for pricing algorithms to facilitate...  View Details
Keywords: Competition Policy; Regulation; Algorithmic Pricing; Dynamic Pricing; Law And Economics; Law And Regulation; Consumer Protection; Competition; Policy; Price; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Economics
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  • 2022
  • Book

Ripe for Revolution: Building Socialism in the Third World
By: Jeremy Friedman
A historical account of ideology in the Global South as the postwar laboratory of socialism, its legacy following the Cold War, and the continuing influence of socialist ideas worldwide.

In the first decades after World War II, many newly independent...  View Details
Keywords: Socialism; Economic Systems; Globalization; Government and Politics; Developing Countries and Economies
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  • Article

The Supply Chain Economy: New Policies to Drive Innovation and Jobs
By: Mercedes Delgado and Karen G. Mills
The debate in economic policymaking about the drivers of innovation and job creation has long centered on manufacturing versus services. The predominant view is that manufacturing drives innovation, wages, and growth, and that services provide less innovation and...  View Details
Keywords: Supply Chain Industries; Supply Chain; Economy; Policy; Innovation and Invention; Jobs and Positions
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  • December 2021
  • Article

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns
By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit...  View Details
Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
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  • November 2021 (Revised February 2022)
  • Case

The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939
By: Alberto Cavallo, Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
The Great Depression was, by far, the worst economic contraction of the twentieth century, and some of the most important ideas about both fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the century were developed in response to it. The economic collapse, which...  View Details
Keywords: Great Depression; Economic Conditions; Unemployment; Homelessness; Financial Crisis; History; Economy; Policy; Poverty; Social Issues
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  • 2021
  • Chapter

Digital Infrastructure
By: Shane Greenstein
What determines the supply of innovative digital infrastructure and how does variance in supply shape the performance of digital services? The essay reviews research into the economic impact of deployment, innovation, and adoption of digital infrastructure. It...  View Details
Keywords: Information Technology; Infrastructure; Economics; Policy; Research; Analysis; United States
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

The Business of K-12 Education in China
By: Geoffrey Jones and Yuhai Wu
This working paper examines the evolution of K-12 education in China, especially between 1985 and the present day, drawing extensive interviews with participants in the educational sector. China has been hugely successful in reaching almost 100 percent literacy,...  View Details
Keywords: K-12 Education; China; Real Estate; Early Childhood Education; Performance Evaluation; Teaching; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Personal Development and Career; Social Issues; Nonprofit Organizations; Private Sector; Education Industry; Real Estate Industry; China
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