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- October–December 2022
- Article
Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem
By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed...
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Keywords:
Machine Learning;
Econometric Analysis;
Instrumental Variable;
Random Forest;
Causal Inference;
AI and Machine Learning;
Forecasting and Prediction
Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
- 2022
- Working Paper
A Linear Panel Model with Heterogeneous Coefficients and Variation in Exposure
By: Jesse M. Shapiro and Liyang Sun
Linear panel models featuring unit and time fixed effects appear in many areas of empirical economics. An active literature studies the interpretation of the ordinary least squares estimator of the model, commonly called the two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimator, in...
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Shapiro, Jesse M., and Liyang Sun. "A Linear Panel Model with Heterogeneous Coefficients and Variation in Exposure." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29976, April 2022.
- January 2021
- Article
A Model of Relative Thinking
By: Benjamin Bushong, Matthew Rabin and Joshua Schwartzstein
Fixed differences loom smaller when compared to large differences. We propose a model of relative thinking where a person weighs a given change along a consumption dimension by less when it is compared to bigger changes along that dimension. In deterministic settings,...
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Bushong, Benjamin, Matthew Rabin, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "A Model of Relative Thinking." Review of Economic Studies 88, no. 1 (January 2021): 162–191.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Real Credit Cycles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S....
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Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
- November 2020
- Article
Taxation in Matching Markets
By: Arnaud Dupuy, Alfred Galichon, Sonia Jaffe and Scott Duke Kominers
We analyze the effects of taxation in two-sided matching markets, i.e., markets in which all agents have heterogeneous preferences over potential partners. In matching markets, taxes can generate inefficiency on the allocative margin by changing who is matched to whom,...
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Dupuy, Arnaud, Alfred Galichon, Sonia Jaffe, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Taxation in Matching Markets." International Economic Review 61, no. 4 (November 2020): 1591–1634.
- Fall 2020
- Article
Business Credit Programs in the Pandemic Era
By: Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Eric Zwick
We develop a pair of models that speak to the goals and design of the sort of business-lending and corporate-bond purchase programs that have been introduced by governments in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. An overarching theme is that, in contrast to the...
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Business Lending;
Government Intervention;
Econometric Models;
Health Pandemics;
Credit;
Governance;
Policy
Hanson, Samuel G., Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam, and Eric Zwick. "Business Credit Programs in the Pandemic Era." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Fall 2020).
- August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
- Technical Note
Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools...
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Keywords:
Machine Learning;
Statistics;
Econometric Analyses;
Experimental Methods;
Data Analysis;
Data Analytics;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Mathematical Methods
Toffel, Michael W., Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira, and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-045, August 2020. (Revised September 2020.)
- 2020
- Working Paper
A General Theory of Identification
By: Iavor Bojinov and Guillaume Basse
What does it mean to say that a quantity is identifiable from the data? Statisticians seem to agree
on a definition in the context of parametric statistical models — roughly, a parameter θ in a model
P = {Pθ : θ ∈ Θ} is identifiable if the mapping θ 7→ Pθ is injective....
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Bojinov, Iavor, and Guillaume Basse. "A General Theory of Identification." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-086, February 2020.
- 2008
- Chapter
Allocating Marketing Resources
By: Sunil Gupta and Thomas J. Steenburgh
Companies spend billions of dollars on marketing every year because it is essential to organic growth. Given these large investments, marketing managers have the responsibility to optimally allocate resources and to demonstrate that their investments generate... View Details
Keywords:
Investment Return;
Resource Allocation;
Marketing;
Demand and Consumers;
Mathematical Methods
Gupta, Sunil, and Thomas J. Steenburgh. "Allocating Marketing Resources." In Marketing Mix Decisions: New Perspectives and Practices, edited by Roger A. Kerin and Rob O'Regan. Chicago, IL: American Marketing Association, 2008.
- 2008
- Working Paper
Allocating Marketing Resources
By: Sunil Gupta and Thomas J. Steenburgh
Marketing is essential for the organic growth of a company. Not surprisingly, firms spend billions of dollars on marketing. Given these large investments, marketing managers have the responsibility to optimally allocate these resources and demonstrate that these...
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Keywords:
Investment Return;
Resource Allocation;
Marketing;
Demand and Consumers;
Mathematical Methods
Gupta, Sunil, and Thomas J. Steenburgh. "Allocating Marketing Resources." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-069, February 2008.
- 2005
- Working Paper
Additive Rules for the Quasi-linear Bargaining Problem
By: Christopher P. Chambers and Jerry R. Green
We study the class of additive rules for the quasi-linear bargaining problem introduced by Green. We provide a characterization of the class of all rules that are e¢ cient, translation invariant, additive, and continuous. We present several subfamilies of rules: the...
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Keywords:
Econometric Models
Chambers, Christopher P., and Jerry R. Green. "Additive Rules for the Quasi-linear Bargaining Problem." Working Paper, January 2005.
- October 1982 (Revised June 1994)
- Background Note
Data Resources, Inc.: Note on Econometric Models
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Data Resources, Inc.: Note on Econometric Models." Harvard Business School Background Note 183-097, October 1982. (Revised June 1994.)
- 1980
- Working Paper
Components of Manufacturing Inventories: A Structural Model of the Production Process
By: Alan J. Auerbach and Jerry R. Green
This paper presents a structural model of production and inventory accumulation based on the hypothesis of cost minimization. It differs from previous attempts in several respects. First, it integrates the analysis of input inventories with output inventories, treating...
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Auerbach, Alan J., and Jerry R. Green. "Components of Manufacturing Inventories: A Structural Model of the Production Process." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 491, June 1980.
- 1977
- Working Paper
Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance
By: Jerry R. Green
A two-period lifetime overlapping generations growth model is used to evaluate the possibility that social insurance can effectively offset economic risks associated with uncertainty about the rate of population growth. Crude measures of the seriousness of this type of...
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Keywords:
Social Insurance;
Econometric Models;
Public Sector;
Government Administration;
Policy;
Human Needs;
Social Issues;
Risk and Uncertainty
Green, Jerry R. "Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 215, November 1977.
- Article
The Nature of Stochastic Equilibria
By: Jerry R. Green and Mukul Majumdar
This paper formulates the notion of stochastic equilibria as invariant probability distributions consistent with the behavior patterns of individuals and the disequilibrium adjustment mechanism of the economy. Conditions for existence, uniqueness, and stability of such...
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Green, Jerry R., and Mukul Majumdar. "The Nature of Stochastic Equilibria." Econometrica 43, no. 4 (July 1975): 647–660.
- Article
Temporary General Equilibrium in a Sequential Trading Model with Spot and Futures Transactions
By: Jerry R. Green
The existence of an equilibrium is proven for a two-period model in which there are spot transactions and futures transactions in the first period and spot markets in the second period. Prices at that date are viewed with subjective uncertainty by all traders. This...
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Green, Jerry R. "Temporary General Equilibrium in a Sequential Trading Model with Spot and Futures Transactions." Econometrica 41, no. 6 (November 1973): 1103–1123.
- Forthcoming
- Article
Crisis Interventions in Corporate Insolvency
By: Samuel Antill and Christopher Clayton
We model the optimal resolution of insolvent firms in general equilibrium. Collateral-constrained banks lend to (i) solvent firms to finance investments and (ii) distressed firms to avoid liquidation. Liquidations create negative fire-sale externalities. Liquidations...
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Keywords:
Insolvent Firms;
Government Intervention;
Liquidation;
Econometric Models;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Policy
Antill, Samuel, and Christopher Clayton. "Crisis Interventions in Corporate Insolvency." Journal of Finance (forthcoming).
- Forthcoming
- Article
Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs
By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano
This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in...
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Ling, Xi, Wesley R. Hartmann, and Tomomichi Amano. "Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs." Management Science (forthcoming). (Pre-published online January 23, 2024.)
- Research Summary
The Connection Between Volatility and Leverage
Professor Siriwardane has co-developed a new econometric model that captures the link between equity volatility and financial leverage, driven by the desire to incorporate the record levels of both leverage and volatility that characterized the 2008 financial crisis... View Details