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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (224)
      • Faculty Publications  (53)

      Earnings Forecast Remove Earnings Forecast →

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Investing in the Next Generation: The Long-Run Impacts of a Liquidity Shock

      By: Patrick Agte, Arielle Bernhardt, Erica M. Field, Rohini Pande and Natalia Rigol
      How do poor entrepreneurs trade off investments in business enterprises versus children's human capital, and how do these choices influence intergenerational socio-economic mobility? To examine this, we exploit experimental variation in household income resulting from...  View Details
      Keywords: Socio-economic Mobility; Household; Financial Liquidity; Human Capital; Investment; Education
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      Agte, Patrick, Arielle Bernhardt, Erica M. Field, Rohini Pande, and Natalia Rigol. "Investing in the Next Generation: The Long-Run Impacts of a Liquidity Shock." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29816, March 2022.
      • Article

      Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence

      By: Ethan Rouen, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
      Using a novel dataset, we show that components of firms' GAAP earnings stemming from ancillary business activities or transitory shocks are significant in frequency and magnitude. These components have grown over time and are dispersed across various sections of the...  View Details
      Keywords: Core Earnings; Transitory Earnings; Non-operating Earnings; Quantitative Disclosures; Equity Valuation; Big Data; Business Earnings; Financial Reporting; Valuation; Analytics and Data Science
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      Rouen, Ethan, Eric C. So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence." Journal of Financial Economics 142, no. 3 (December 2021): 1068–1091.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

      By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
      A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit...  View Details
      Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
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      Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
      • 2021
      • Article

      An Empirical Examination of Sell-Side Brokerage Analysts' Published Research, Concierge Services, and High-Touch Services

      By: David A. Maber, Boris Groysberg and Paul M. Healy
      This paper uses a proprietary panel dataset to categorize and quantify the activities that sell-side brokerage analysts use to build and sustain their network of buy-side client relations. We then examine the marginal impact of these activities on key analyst outcome...  View Details
      Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Analyst Ratings; Brokerage Commissions; Earnings Forecasts
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      Maber, David A., Boris Groysberg, and Paul M. Healy. "An Empirical Examination of Sell-Side Brokerage Analysts' Published Research, Concierge Services, and High-Touch Services." European Accounting Review 30, no. 4 (2021): 827–853.
      • January–February 2021
      • Article

      Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality

      By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
      We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both...  View Details
      Keywords: Accounting Quality; Earnings Quality; Stock Returns; Investment Strategy; Accounting; Business Earnings; Quality; Investment Return; Investment; Strategy
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      Chen, Wen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan, and George Serafeim. "Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 48, nos. 1-2 (January–February 2021): 70–101.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation

      By: Matthias Regier and Ethan Rouen
      We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between lagged...  View Details
      Keywords: Intangibles; Market Valuation; Human Capital; Stocks; Financial Markets; Valuation
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      Regier, Matthias, and Ethan Rouen. "The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-047, October 2020. (Revised March 2022.)
      • September 2020
      • Article

      Analyst Forecast Bundling

      By: Michael Drake, Peter Joos, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt
      Changing economic conditions over the past two decades have created incentives for sell-side analysts to both provide their institutional clients tiered services and to streamline their written research process. One manifestation of these changes is an increased...  View Details
      Keywords: Analysts; Earnings Forecasts; Forecast Accuracy; Forecast Bundling; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Drake, Michael, Peter Joos, Joseph Pacelli, and Brady Twedt. "Analyst Forecast Bundling." Management Science 66, no. 9 (September 2020): 4024–4046.
      • Article

      Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts

      By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli
      We examine how cultural differences among agents influence the aggregate outcome of a common forecasting task. Using both exogenous shocks to sell-side analyst diversity and panel regression methods, we find that increases in analyst cultural diversity positively...  View Details
      Keywords: Culture; Forecasting; Sell-side Analysts; Information Aggregation; Diversity; Forecasting and Prediction; Information; Performance Improvement
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      Merkley, Kenneth, Roni Michaely, and Joseph Pacelli. "Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts." Journal of Accounting & Economics 70, no. 1 (August 2020).
      • October–November 2019
      • Article

      A New Perspective on Post-Earnings-Announcement-Drift: Using a Relative Drift Measure

      By: Michael Clement, Joonho Lee and Kevin Ow Yong
      Prior research finds that there is a delayed reaction to both analyst-based earnings surprises and random-walk-based earnings surprises. Focusing on the market reaction from the post-announcement window, prior studies show that analyst-based drift is larger than random...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Earnings; Financial Reporting; Market Timing; Behavioral Finance
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      Clement, Michael, Joonho Lee, and Kevin Ow Yong. "A New Perspective on Post-Earnings-Announcement-Drift: Using a Relative Drift Measure." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 46, no. 9–10 (October–November 2019): 1123–1143.
      • January 2019
      • Article

      Bubbles for Fama

      By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
      We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio...  View Details
      Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Government Shareholdings in Brokerage Firms and Analyst Research Quality

      By: Sheng Cao, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang and Huifang Yin
      During times when the Chinese government wished to prop up the market, sell-side analysts from brokerages with significant government ownership issued relatively less pessimistic (or more optimistic) earnings forecasts, earnings-forecast revisions, and stock...  View Details
      Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Forecast Optimism; Forecast Accuracy; Government Incentives; Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets
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      Cao, Sheng, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang, and Huifang Yin. "Government Shareholdings in Brokerage Firms and Analyst Research Quality." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-095, March 2018. (Revised June 2021.)
      • April–May 2017
      • Article

      Career Concerns of Banking Analysts

      By: Joanne Horton, George Serafeim and Shan Wu
      We study how career concerns influence banking analysts' forecasts and how their forecasting behavior benefits both them and bank managers. We show that banking analysts issue early in the year relatively more optimistic and later in the year more pessimistic forecasts...  View Details
      Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Analyst Forecasts; Analysts; Investment Recommendations; Career Advancement; Career Management; Labor Mobility; Labor Market; Prejudice and Bias; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Banking
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      Horton, Joanne, George Serafeim, and Shan Wu. "Career Concerns of Banking Analysts." Journal of Accounting & Economics 63, nos. 2-3 (April–May 2017): 231–252.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers

      By: Elisabeth Kempf, Alberto Manconi and Oliver Spalt
      Learning by doing matters for professional investors. We develop a new methodology to show that mutual fund managers outperform in industries where they have obtained experience on the job. The key to our identification strategy is that we look "inside" funds and...  View Details
      Keywords: Fund Managers; Experience and Expertise; Performance; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Kempf, Elisabeth, Alberto Manconi, and Oliver Spalt. "Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 2124896, May 2017.
      • January 2017
      • Article

      Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns

      By: Tom Y. Chang, Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon and Eugene F. Soltes
      We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Earnings; Investment
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      Chang, Tom Y., Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon, and Eugene F. Soltes. "Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns." Review of Financial Studies 30, no. 1 (January 2017): 281–323.
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

      By: Emil Siriwardane
      I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics
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      Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
      • June 2015
      • Supplement

      Generating Higher Value at IBM (A): EPS Forecasting Model

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Scott Mayfield
      This case analyzes IBM's financial performance and its capital allocation decisions over a 10-year period from 2004-2013, during which IBM returned more than $140B to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. During this time, CEO Sam...  View Details
      Keywords: Dividends; Share Repurchases; Earnings Guidance; Financial Statement Analysis; Financial Ratios; Payout Policy; Earnings Per Share (EPS); Earnings Management; Change Management; Leadership; Transformation; Financial Strategy
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Scott Mayfield. "Generating Higher Value at IBM (A): EPS Forecasting Model." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 215-711, June 2015.
      • March 2015
      • Article

      Inside the “Black Box” of Sell-Side Financial Analysts

      By: Lawrence D. Brown, Andrew C. Call, Michael B. Clement and Nathan Y. Sharp
      Our objective is to penetrate the “black box” of sell-side financial analysts by providing new insights into the inputs analysts use and the incentives they face. We survey 365 analysts and conduct 18 follow-up interviews covering a wide range of topics, including the...  View Details
      Keywords: Knowledge Use and Leverage; Investment; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Services Industry
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      Brown, Lawrence D., Andrew C. Call, Michael B. Clement, and Nathan Y. Sharp. "Inside the “Black Box” of Sell-Side Financial Analysts." Journal of Accounting Research 53, no. 1 (March 2015): 1–47.
      • Article

      Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

      By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
      We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Earnings; Price; Investment; Shipping Industry
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment." Quarterly Journal of Economics 130, no. 1 (February 2015): 55–109.
      • October 2014
      • Case

      Honeywell and the Great Recession (A)

      By: Sandra J. Sucher and Susan J. Winterberg
      CEO Dave Cote spent six years turning around an ailing Honeywell and in 2008 Cote and his team face a new challenge: how to respond to the Great Recession. Cote does not want to give up the gains he made in transforming and unifying Honeywell. With a fall-off in...  View Details
      Keywords: Layoffs; Furloughs; Downsizing; Work Sharing; Short Time Work; Recessions; Earnings Forecast; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Cost Management; Executive Compensation; Crisis Management; Financial Crisis; Manufacturing Industry
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      Sucher, Sandra J., and Susan J. Winterberg. "Honeywell and the Great Recession (A)." Harvard Business School Case 315-022, October 2014.
      • October 2014
      • Supplement

      Honeywell and the Great Recession: The Economic Recovery (B)

      By: Sandra J. Sucher and Susan J. Winterberg
      Five years after the Great Recession, Honeywell's CEO Dave Cote and his executive team reflect on the choices they made to manage costs and earnings forecasts during that uncertain time. They discuss which cost cutting measures they decided to take and their personal...  View Details
      Keywords: Layoffs; Furloughs; Downsizing; Work Sharing; Short Time Work; Recessions; Earnings Forecast; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Cost Management; Executive Compensation; Crisis Management; Financial Crisis; Manufacturing Industry
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      Sucher, Sandra J., and Susan J. Winterberg. "Honeywell and the Great Recession: The Economic Recovery (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 315-023, October 2014.
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