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- 2023
- Working Paper
Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality
By: Fabrizio Dell'Acqua, Edward McFowland III, Ethan Mollick, Hila Lifshitz-Assaf, Katherine C. Kellogg, Saran Rajendran, Lisa Krayer, François Candelon and Karim R. Lakhani
The public release of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked tremendous interest in how humans will use Artificial Intelligence (AI) to accomplish a variety of tasks. In our study conducted with Boston Consulting Group, a global management consulting firm, we examine...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Homeward Bound: How Migrants Seek Out Familiar Climates
By: Marguerite Obolensky, Marco Tabellini and Charles Taylor
This paper introduces the concept of “climate matching” as a driver of migration. Using historical censuses and administrative data, we document several novel findings. First, we show that climate strongly predicts the spatial distribution of international and domestic...
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Keywords:
Migration;
Climate;
Immigration;
Residency;
Weather;
Ethnicity;
Climate Change;
Geographic Location;
Policy;
United States
- 2023
- Working Paper
Distributionally Robust Causal Inference with Observational Data
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds in two steps. We first...
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- 2023
- Article
Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response,
which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment
effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
A Linear Panel Model with Heterogeneous Coefficients and Variation in Exposure
By: Jesse M. Shapiro and Liyang Sun
Linear panel models featuring unit and time fixed effects appear in many areas of empirical economics. An active literature studies the interpretation of the ordinary least squares estimator of the model, commonly called the two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimator, in...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects under practical settings with...
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- March 2022
- Article
Where to Locate COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Facilities?
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Michael Lingzhi Li and Alessandro Previero
The outbreak of COVID-19 led to a record-breaking race to develop a vaccine. However, the limited vaccine capacity creates another massive challenge: how to distribute vaccines to mitigate the near-end impact of the pandemic? In the United States in particular, the new...
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- February 2022
- Case
Leading The UK Vaccine Task Force
By: Amy C. Edmondson and Claudia Pienica
This case describes the first six months of the UK Vaccine Taskforce, under the leadership of Kate Bingham. With a career spent in the private sector as a biotech investor, Bingham’s appointment within the government was considered unusual. The overarching brief given...
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Vaccine;
Government;
Health Pandemics;
Health Care and Treatment;
Science;
Innovation and Invention;
Groups and Teams;
Leadership;
Decision Making;
Government and Politics;
Health;
Innovation and Management;
Governance;
Change;
Government Administration;
Health Industry;
Financial Services Industry;
Public Administration Industry;
Europe;
United Kingdom
- Article
A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
By: Edward McFowland III, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna and Tianshu Sun
We define a prescriptive analytics framework that addresses the needs of a constrained decision-maker facing, ex ante, unknown costs and benefits of multiple policy levers. The framework is general in nature and can be deployed in any utility maximizing context, public...
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- November 2021
- Article
Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective
By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard
In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative...
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- November 2021
- Article
Ratings, Reviews, and the Marketing of New Products
By: Itay P. Fainmesser, Dominique Olié Lauga and Elie Ofek
We study how user-generated content (UGC) about new products impacts a firm's advertising and pricing decisions and the effect on profits and market dynamics. We construct a two-period model where consumers value quality and are heterogeneous in their taste for the new...
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- July 2021
- Article
The Effect of Price on Firm Reputation
By: Michael Luca and Oren Reshef
While a business's reputation can affect its pricing, prices can also affect its reputation. To explore the effect of prices on reputation, we investigate daily data on menu prices and online ratings from a large rating and ordering platform. We find that a price...
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- Article
A Feasibility Study Using Time-driven Activity-based Costing as a Management Tool for Provider Cost Estimation: Lessons from the National TB Control Program in Zimbabwe in 2018
By: J. Chirenda, B. Nhlema Simwaka, C. Sandy, K. Bodnar, S. Corbin, P. Desai, T. Mapako, S. Shamu, C. Timire, E. Antonio, A. Makone, A. Birikorang, T. Mapuranga, M. Ngwenya, T. Masunda, M. Dube, E. Wandwalo, L. Morrison and R. S. Kaplan
Background: This study used process maps and time-driven activity-based costing to document TB service delivery processes. The analysis identified the resources required to sustain TB services in Zimbabwe, as well as several opportunities for more effective and...
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- Article
Nudging: Progress to Date and Future Directions
By: John Beshears and Harry Kosowsky
Nudges influence behavior by changing the environment in which decisions are made, without restricting the menu of options and without altering financial incentives. This paper assesses past empirical research on nudging and provides recommendations for future work in...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes
By: Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon and Sinan Aral
Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we...
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- August 2020
- Article
Workplace Knowledge Flows
By: Jason Sandvik, Richard Saouma, Nathan Seegert and Christopher Stanton
We conducted a field experiment in a sales firm to test whether improving knowledge flows between coworkers affects productivity. Our design allows us to compare different management practices and to isolate whether frictions to knowledge transmission primarily reside...
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- Article
Treatment Of Opioid Use Disorder Among Commercially Insured U.S. Adults, 2008–17
By: Karen Shen, Eric Barrette and Leemore S. Dafny
There is abundant literature on efforts to reduce opioid prescriptions and misuse, but comparatively little on the treatment provided to people with opioid use disorder (OUD). Using claims data representing 12–15 million nonelderly adults covered through commercial...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Anchors Aweigh: Analysis of Anchor Limited Partner Investors in Impact Investment Funds
By: Shawn A. Cole, T. Robert Zochowski, Fanele Mashwama and Heather McPherson
This note describes results from a survey of “anchor investors” in impact funds. Anchor investors
are described as “generally the first investor to make a substantial capital commitment to a fund,”
(according to the Global Impact Investing Network, “GIIN”) and their...
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- January 2020
- Article
The Market Reacts Quickly: Changes in Paclitaxel Vascular Device Purchasing Within the Ascension Healthcare System
By: Peter P. Monteleone, Subhash Banerjee, Priya Kothapalli, Ariel Dora Stern, Daniel Fehder, Ron Ginor, Dominic Vollmar, Edward T. A. Fry and Mark J. Pirwitz
Background. A meta-analysis of trials in endovascular therapy suggested an increased mortality associated with treatment exposure to paclitaxel. Multiple publications and corrections of prior data were performed, and the United States Food and Drug Administration has...
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