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- November 2024
- Article
Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge
By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring... View Details
Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Consumer Behavior; Personal Finance; Product Positioning
Cavallo, Alberto, and Oleksiy Kryvtsov. "Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge." Journal of Monetary Economics 148 (November 2024).
- Spring 2024
- Article
The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications
By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Daniel K. Tarullo
As revealed by the failures of three regional banks in the spring of 2023, bank runs are not a thing of the past. To inform the ongoing discussion of the appropriate regulatory response, we examine trends in the banking industry over the last twenty-five years. On the... View Details
Keywords: Financial Instruments; Financial Crisis; Assets; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Financial Condition; Banking Industry
Hanson, Samuel Gregory, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam, and Daniel K. Tarullo. "The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2024): 343–389.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Are Experts Blinded by Feasibility?: Experimental Evidence from a NASA Robotics Challenge
By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Zoe Szajnfarber, Jason Crusan, Michael Menietti and Karim R. Lakhani
Resource allocation decisions play a dominant role in shaping a firm’s technological trajectory and competitive advantage. Recent work indicates that innovative firms and scientific institutions tend to exhibit an anti-novelty bias when evaluating new projects and... View Details
Keywords: Evaluations; Novelty; Feasibility; Field Experiment; Resource Allocation; Technological Innovation; Competitive Advantage; Decision Making
Lane, Jacqueline N., Zoe Szajnfarber, Jason Crusan, Michael Menietti, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Are Experts Blinded by Feasibility? Experimental Evidence from a NASA Robotics Challenge." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-071, May 2022.
- Article
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Fundamental Valuation; Implied Cost Of Capital; International Equity Markets; Present Value; Investment Return; Equity; Markets; Global Range
Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Accounting Review 97, no. 2 (March 2022): 107–133.
- March 2020
- Article
Which Early Withdrawal Penalty Attracts the Most Deposits to a Commitment Savings Account?
By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Christopher Harris, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and Jung Sakong
Previous research has shown that some people voluntarily use commitment contracts that restrict their own choice sets. We study how people divide money between two accounts: a liquid account that permits unrestricted withdrawals and a commitment account that is... View Details
Keywords: Quasi-hyperbolic Discounting; Present Bias; Sophistication; Naiveté; Commitment; Flexibility; Savings; Contract Design; Defined Contribution Retirement Plan; 401 (K); IRA; Saving; Behavior; Contracts; Design; Interest Rates
Beshears, John, James J. Choi, Christopher Harris, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, and Jung Sakong. "Which Early Withdrawal Penalty Attracts the Most Deposits to a Commitment Savings Account?" Art. 104144. Journal of Public Economics 183 (March 2020).
- 2018
- Working Paper
The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves
By: Robin Greenwood and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
We document a strong effect of pension and insurance company (P&I) assets on the long end of the yield curve. Using data from 26 countries, the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bond yields is negatively related to the ratio of pension assets (in... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen. "The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-109, June 2018. (Revised December 2018.)
- June 2018
- Background Note
Introduction to Life Settlements
By: Alexander Braun, Lauren H. Cohen, Christopher J. Malloy and Jiahua Xu
Life insurance is an asset owned by the majority of American adults (61%). Note that this 61% penetration rate is essentially at parity with home ownership (64%) and higher than that of 401(k) retirement account ownership (53%). Life settlements, or life insurance... View Details
Braun, Alexander, Lauren H. Cohen, Christopher J. Malloy, and Jiahua Xu. "Introduction to Life Settlements." Harvard Business School Background Note 218-127, June 2018.
- August 2017 (Revised December 2017)
- Case
Accounting for Nuclear Power Provisions at RWE
By: Paul Healy and Jonas Heese
In early 2016, RWE, a utility that operates nuclear power plants in Germany, came under scrutiny from regulators and the media over the adequacy of its provisions for costs of decommissioning and dismantling (D&D) its nuclear power plants. Accounting standards required... View Details
Keywords: Liabilities; Provisions For Long-term Obligations; Discounting; Accounting; Energy Generation; Energy Industry; Germany
Healy, Paul, and Jonas Heese. "Accounting for Nuclear Power Provisions at RWE." Harvard Business School Case 118-013, August 2017. (Revised December 2017.)
- June 2017
- Case
AT&T Versus Verizon: A Financial Comparison
By: V.G. Narayanan and Joel L. Heilprin
This case asks students to prepare a report comparing the financial and operating performance of AT&T and Verizon. Taking the perspective of a communications industry analyst, they must also consider the differences between and implications of the companies' business... View Details
Keywords: Financial Statements; Operations; Analysis; Business Model; Accounting; Performance Effectiveness; Telecommunications Industry
Narayanan, V.G., and Joel L. Heilprin. "AT&T Versus Verizon: A Financial Comparison." Harvard Business School Brief Case 917-543, June 2017.
- April 2017
- Supplement
CIC: Catalyzing Entrepreneurial Ecosystems (B)
By: William R. Kerr, Sari Kerr and Alexis Brownell
CIC engages in "guerrilla warfare," offering free or highly discounted rates in order to get its empty offices filled before the opening day of its St. Louis branch. Opening day is a huge success, and CIC St. Louis grows rapidly, even opening a second building. In the... View Details
Keywords: Start-ups; Boston; Cambridge; St. Louis; CIC; Cambridge Innovation Center; Co-working Space; Entrepreneurial Ecosystems; Innovation Ecosystems; Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Expansion; Growth and Development Strategy; Boston; Cambridge; St. Louis
Kerr, William R., Sari Kerr, and Alexis Brownell. "CIC: Catalyzing Entrepreneurial Ecosystems (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 817-127, April 2017.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors
By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang
This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country... View Details
Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Capital Markets; Global Range
Viceira, Luis M., and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang. "Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-085, March 2017. (Revised July 2018.)
- November 2016 (Revised December 2016)
- Module Note
Strategy Execution Module 7: Designing Asset Allocation Systems
By: Robert Simons
This module reading provides tools and analyses for acquiring and allocating resources. The module begins by reviewing the importance of setting strategic boundaries as a basis for asset acquisitions. Next, a distinction is made between new assets acquired to meet... View Details
Keywords: Management Control Systems; Implementing Strategy; Execution; Asset Allocation Systems; Payback; Discounted Cash Flow; Internal Rate Of Return; Strategic Investments; Analyzing Acquisitions; Strategy; Capital Budgeting
Simons, Robert. "Strategy Execution Module 7: Designing Asset Allocation Systems." Harvard Business School Module Note 117-107, November 2016. (Revised December 2016.)
- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return
Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
- January 2014 (Revised February 2016)
- Case
U.S. Government Debt and the Debate over a Balanced Budget Amendment
By: Matthew Weinzierl, Katrina Flanagan and Alastair Su
In the first decade of the 21st century, national debt as a share of GDP rose dramatically in the United States and across the developed world. This case consists of excerpts from leading commentators explaining and commenting on this trend and the economic and moral... View Details
Keywords: National Debt; Social Discount Rate; Ricardian Equivalence; Government and Politics; Macroeconomics; United States
Weinzierl, Matthew, Katrina Flanagan, and Alastair Su. "U.S. Government Debt and the Debate over a Balanced Budget Amendment." Harvard Business School Case 714-031, January 2014. (Revised February 2016.)
- Article
No Evidence for an Effect of Testosterone Administration on Delay Discounting in Male University Students
By: Georgia Rada Ortner, Matthias Wibral, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, Dietrich Klingmüller, Armin Falk and Bernd Weber
Intertemporal choices between a smaller sooner and a larger delayed reward are one of the most important types of decisions humans face in their everyday life. The degree to which individuals discount delayed rewards correlates with impulsiveness. Steep delay... View Details
Keywords: Delay Discounting; Impulsiveness; Intertemporal Choice; Testosterone; Decision Making; Behavior; Personal Characteristics
Rada Ortner, Georgia, Matthias Wibral, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, Dietrich Klingmüller, Armin Falk, and Bernd Weber. "No Evidence for an Effect of Testosterone Administration on Delay Discounting in Male University Students." Psychoneuroendocrinology 38, no. 9 (September 2013): 1814–1818.
- August 2013
- Background Note
A Simple Free Cash Flow Valuation Model
Explores some of the issues involved in valuing cash flow streams. A simple model is presented that reveals the effect on value of changing assumptions about the appropriate discount rate, the level of profitability, the growth rate of sales, the asset intensity ratio,... View Details
Sahlman, William A. "A Simple Free Cash Flow Valuation Model." Harvard Business School Background Note 814-027, August 2013.
- January – March 2012
- Article
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Luis M. Viceira
This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details
Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks
Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.
- 2010
- Working Paper
Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Performance Expectations; Prejudice and Bias; Valuation
Ruback, Richard S. "Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-036, October 2010.
- July 2010 (Revised August 2021)
- Supplement
Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships (CW)
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Albert W. Sheen
After booming for more than five years, the global shipping (maritime) industry experienced a dramatic crash in late 2008 as the global financial system froze and the global economy slid into recession. Ship charter rates (revenue) fell by as much as 90% causing prices... View Details
- June 2010 (Revised August 2021)
- Case
Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Albert Sheen
After booming for more than five years, the global shipping (maritime) industry experienced a dramatic crash in late 2008 as the global financial system froze and the global economy slid into recession. Ship charter rates (revenue) fell by as much as 90% causing prices... View Details
Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; Financial Crisis; Capital Markets; Financial Liquidity; International Finance; Globalized Markets and Industries; Valuation; Banking Industry; Shipping Industry; Germany
Esty, Benjamin C., and Albert Sheen. "Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships." Harvard Business School Case 210-058, June 2010. (Revised August 2021.)