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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (118)
    • Faculty Publications  (12)

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    • All HBS Web  (118)
      • Faculty Publications  (12)

      Demand Validation Remove Demand Validation →

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      • October 2021
      • Article

      Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

      By: Nicolas Padilla and Eva Ascarza
      The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Programs; Consumer Behavior; Analysis
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      Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 58, no. 5 (October 2021): 981–1006.
      • August 2021
      • Article

      Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright
      Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes...  View Details
      Keywords: Conundrum; Investor Demand; Monetary Policy Transmission; Interest Rates
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      Hanson, Samuel G., David O. Lucca, and Jonathan H. Wright. "Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 136, no. 3 (August 2021): 1719–1781.
      • February 2021 (Revised March 2022)
      • Case

      TikTok in 2020: Super App or Supernova?

      By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Dan Maher and Dan O'Brien
      TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, was launched in 2012 around a simple idea – helping users entertain themselves on their smartphones while on the Beijing Subway. In less than a decade, it had become one of the world’s most valuable private companies, with investors...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Business Startups; Business Organization; Change Management; Disruption; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Global Strategy; Health Pandemics; Innovation Strategy; Growth and Development Strategy; Growth Management; Brands and Branding; Marketing Strategy; Marketing Channels; Network Effects; Digital Platforms; Product Design; Product Development; Partners and Partnerships; Opportunities; Social Issues; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Internet and the Web; Value Creation; United States; China
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      Rayport, Jeffrey F., Dan Maher, and Dan O'Brien. "TikTok in 2020: Super App or Supernova?" Harvard Business School Case 821-087, February 2021. (Revised March 2022.)
      • March 2020
      • Article

      Diagnosing Missing Always at Random in Multivariate Data

      By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Natesh S. Pillai and Donald B. Rubin
      Models for analyzing multivariate data sets with missing values require strong, often assessable, assumptions. The most common of these is that the mechanism that created the missing data is ignorable—a twofold assumption dependent on the mode of inference. The first...  View Details
      Keywords: Missing Data; Diagnostic Tools; Sensitivity Analysis; Hypothesis Testing; Missing At Random; Row Exchangeability; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., Natesh S. Pillai, and Donald B. Rubin. "Diagnosing Missing Always at Random in Multivariate Data." Biometrika 107, no. 1 (March 2020): 246–253.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

      By: Eva Ascarza
      The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Value and Value Chain; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry
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      Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-091, February 2019. (Revised May 2020. Accepted at the Journal of Marketing Research.)
      • January 2019 (Revised July 2021)
      • Case

      Analytical Space: The Next Frontier?

      By: Thomas R. Eisenmann, Jeffrey J. Bussgang and David Lane
      With one satellite aloft and in the midst of beta testing in late 2018, Analytical Space founders Justin Oliveira and Dan Nevius turned to critical questions about the pioneering startup’s go-to-market, pricing, and business development strategy. Analytical Space aimed...  View Details
      Keywords: Pricing Decisions; Demand Validation; Revenue Model; Business Development; Space Tech; Satellites; Earth Observation; Remote Sensing; Business Startups; Emerging Markets; Growth and Development Strategy; Finance; Selection and Staffing; Business Strategy; Aerospace Industry
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      Eisenmann, Thomas R., Jeffrey J. Bussgang, and David Lane. "Analytical Space: The Next Frontier?" Harvard Business School Case 819-089, January 2019. (Revised July 2021.)
      • Article

      Real Effects of Relational Contracts

      By: Steven Blader, Claudine Gartenberg, Rebecca Henderson and Andrea Pratt
      How important are factors such as "firm culture" and "employee engagement" in driving firm performance? Increasing evidence from a wide range of fields suggests that productivity differs widely across firms, even after the inclusion of careful controls for factors such...  View Details
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      Blader, Steven, Claudine Gartenberg, Rebecca Henderson, and Andrea Pratt. "Real Effects of Relational Contracts." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 105, no. 5 (May 2015): 452–456.
      • Article

      Integration of Online and Offline Channels in Retail: The Impact of Sharing Reliable Inventory Availability Information

      By: Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno
      Using a proprietary data set, we analyze the impact of the implementation of a “buy-online, pick-up-in-store” (BOPS) project. The implementation of this project is associated with a reduction in online sales and an increase in store sales and traffic. These results can...  View Details
      Keywords: Retail Operations; Inventory Availability; Empirical Operations Management; Business Analytics; Online Retail; Ecommerce; Operations; Management; Distribution Channels; Consumer Behavior; E-commerce; Retail Industry
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      Gallino, Santiago, and Antonio Moreno. "Integration of Online and Offline Channels in Retail: The Impact of Sharing Reliable Inventory Availability Information." Management Science 60, no. 6 (June 2014): 1434–1451. (Finalist of Management Science Best Paper award in Operations Management.)
      • July–August 2013
      • Article

      A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings

      By: Eva Ascarza and Bruce G.S. Hardie
      As firms become more customer-centric, concepts such as customer equity come to the fore. Any serious attempt to quantify customer equity requires modeling techniques that can provide accurate multiperiod forecasts of customer behavior. Although a number of researchers...  View Details
      Keywords: Churn; Retention; Contractual Settings; Access Services; Hidden Markov Models; RFM; Latent Variable Models; Customer Value and Value Chain; Consumer Behavior
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      Ascarza, Eva, and Bruce G.S. Hardie. "A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings." Marketing Science 32, no. 4 (July–August 2013): 570–590.
      • March 2013
      • Case

      An Entrepreneur's New Product Development Journey

      By: Elie Ofek
      This case tracks the new product development process undertaken by Gauri Nanda, the founder and CEO of Nanda Home, as she ventures to innovate beyond her initial product launches. Having achieved commercial success with her first product Clocky, a roll away alarm clock...  View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Decision Making; Product Development; Manufacturing Industry; Consumer Products Industry
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      Ofek, Elie. "An Entrepreneur's New Product Development Journey." Harvard Business School Case 513-098, March 2013.
      • November 2011 (Revised August 2012)
      • Background Note

      Customer Discovery and Validation for Entrepreneurs

      By: Frank V. Cespedes, Thomas Eisenmann and Steven G. Blank
      Provides practical guidelines for conducting market research to explore and validate demand for entrepreneurial offering. Explains how the research objectives of entrepreneurs might differ from those relevant to managers evaluating product or service offerings to...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Value and Value Chain; Entrepreneurship
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      Cespedes, Frank V., Thomas Eisenmann, and Steven G. Blank. "Customer Discovery and Validation for Entrepreneurs." Harvard Business School Background Note 812-097, November 2011. (Revised August 2012.)
      • November 2011 (Revised August 2012)
      • Background Note

      Customer Visits for Entrepreneurs

      By: Frank V. Cespedes
      Provides practical guidelines for conducting customer visits to explore and validate demand for an entrepreneurial offering. Reviews conditions under which visits will yield superior insights, compared to other research methods. Describes criteria for selecting visit...  View Details
      Keywords: Customers; Entrepreneurship
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      Cespedes, Frank V. "Customer Visits for Entrepreneurs." Harvard Business School Background Note 812-098, November 2011. (Revised August 2012.)
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