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  • All HBS Web  (174)
    • Faculty Publications  (21)

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    • All HBS Web  (174)
      • Faculty Publications  (21)

      Demand Shocks Remove Demand Shocks →

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      • Winter 2022
      • Article

      Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted

      By: Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher Stanton
      The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Demand Forecasting; Reopening; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Small Business
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      Balla-Elliott, Dylan, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher Stanton. "Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 41, no. 1 (Winter 2022): 278–317.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Gone with the Big Data: Institutional Lender Demand for Private Information

      By: Jung Koo Kang
      I explore whether the value of borrowers’ private information is an important determinant of institutional lender participation in syndicated loans. Institutional lenders have been shown to exploit their access to borrowers’ private information by trading on it in...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Institutions; Financing and Loans; Information; Data and Data Sets
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      Kang, Jung Koo. "Gone with the Big Data: Institutional Lender Demand for Private Information." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-053, January 2022. (Revised February 2022.)
      • January 2022
      • Article

      Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?

      By: Shai Benjamin Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli, Davide Malacrino and Timothy McQuade
      We examine the characteristics of the individuals who become entrepreneurs when local opportunities arise. We identify local demand shocks by linking fluctuations in global commodity prices to municipality level agricultural endowments in Brazil. We find that the firm...  View Details
      Keywords: Firms; Entrepreneurs; Demand Shocks; Entrepreneurship; Personal Characteristics; Demographics; Opportunities; Brazil
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      Bernstein, Shai Benjamin, Emanuele Colonnelli, Davide Malacrino, and Timothy McQuade. "Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?" Journal of Financial Economics 143, no. 1 (January 2022): 107–130.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov
      We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability and stockouts to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020-2022 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in stockouts in nearly all sectors early in the...  View Details
      Keywords: Prices; Stockouts; Inventories; Supply Disruptions; COVID-19 Pandemic; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Supply Chain; Disruption; Health Pandemics; Consumer Products Industry; United States; China; Canada; France; Germany; Japan; Spain
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Oleksiy Kryvtsov. "What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29209, September 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Financial Flexibility and Corporate Employment

      By: Rebecca Lester, Ethan Rouen and Braden Williams
      We study the role of financial flexibility on COVID-19 employment actions. Using daily data from March through May 2020 for 354 of the largest U.S. employers, we find that firms facing a negative demand shock were 28.8 percentage points more likely to reduce their...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Flexibility; COVID-19; Pandemic; Employment; Health Pandemics; System Shocks; Finance
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      Lester, Rebecca, Ethan Rouen, and Braden Williams. "Financial Flexibility and Corporate Employment." Harvard Business School Series in Accounting and Control, No. 21-119, April 2021.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms

      By: Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra and Marcela Eslava
      Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Emerging Economies; Informality; Firm-size Distribution; Health Pandemics; Developing Countries and Economies; Economy; System Shocks; Latin America
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      Alfaro, Laura, Oscar Becerra, and Marcela Eslava. "EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-125, June 2020. (See application of the methodology to Latin American Countries in the IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere 2020, Chapter 3. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2020/10/13/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere.)
      • Fall 2019
      • Article

      Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals

      By: Kyle Myers and Mark Pauly
      We examine trends in the productivity of the pharmaceutical sector over the past three decades. Motivated by Ricardo’s insight that productivity and rents are endogenous to demand when inputs are scarce, we examine the industry’s aggregate R&D production function....  View Details
      Keywords: Innovation; Productivity; Pharmaceuticals; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Myers, Kyle, and Mark Pauly. "Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals." RAND Journal of Economics 50, no. 3 (Fall 2019): 591–614.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      The Effect of Payment Choices on Online Retail: Evidence from the 2016 Indian Demonetization

      By: Chaithanya Bandi, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe and Zhiji Xu
      The Indian banknote demonetization in 2016 was one of the most significant international events of that year. Overnight, 86% of Indian currency in circulation was declared invalid unless exchanged for new bills. The sudden and unexpected demonetization constituted a...  View Details
      Keywords: Cash On Delivery; Online Retail; Product Returns; Payment Methods; Digitization; Emerging Markets; Currency; Internet and the Web; Demand and Consumers; Retail Industry; India
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      Bandi, Chaithanya, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe, and Zhiji Xu. "The Effect of Payment Choices on Online Retail: Evidence from the 2016 Indian Demonetization." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-123, June 2019.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Second Chance: Life with Less Student Debt

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda and Vincent Yao
      Rising student debt is considered one of the creeping threats of our time. This paper examines the effect of student debt relief on individual credit and labor market outcomes. We exploit the plausibly random debt discharge due to the inability of National Collegiate,...  View Details
      Keywords: Student Debt; Private Student Loans; Legal Settlement; Mobility; Debt Collection; Debt Relief; Borrowing and Debt; Personal Finance; Outcome or Result; United States
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Ankit Kalda, and Vincent Yao. "Second Chance: Life with Less Student Debt." Working Paper, May 2019. (Forthcoming in The Journal of Finance.)
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Government Technology Policy, Social Value, and National Competitiveness

      By: Frank Nagle
      This study seeks to better understand the impact that government technology procurement regulations have on social value and national competitiveness. To do this, it examines the impact of a change in France’s technology procurement policy that required government...  View Details
      Keywords: Social Value; Competitiveness; Government Administration; Information Technology; Acquisition; Policy; Value
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      Nagle, Frank. "Government Technology Policy, Social Value, and National Competitiveness." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-103, March 2019.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Dani Rodrik
      We study preferences for government action in response to layoffs resulting from different types of labor-market shocks. We consider the following shocks: technological change, a demand shift, bad management, and three kinds of international outsourcing. Respondents...  View Details
      Keywords: Labor; Markets; System Shocks; Trade; Attitudes; Surveys
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Dani Rodrik. "Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25705, March 2019.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions

      By: Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller
      We consider the identification of empirical models of supply and demand with imperfect competition. We show that a covariance restriction on unobserved demand and cost shocks resolves endogeneity and identifies the price parameter. We demonstrate how to employ this...  View Details
      Keywords: Demand Estimation; Identification; Endogeneity Bias; Covariance Restrictions; Ordinary Least Squares; Instrumental Variables
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      MacKay, Alexander, and Nathan H. Miller. "Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-051, October 2018. (Revised February 2023. Direct download.)
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer

      By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani
      We assess the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) serves as an automatic stabilizer to mitigate the economy's sensitivity to shocks. Using a local labor market design based on heterogeneity in local benefit generosity (defined as the percentage of household...  View Details
      Keywords: Unemployment Insurance; Automatic Stabilizers; Bartik Shocks; Aggregate Demand; System Shocks; Employment; Balance and Stability; Insurance; Volatility; Insurance Industry
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      Di Maggio, Marco, and Amir Kermani. "The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-009, July 2016. (Revise and Resubmit to American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.)
      • August 2015
      • Article

      Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices

      By: Pol Antràs and C. Fritz Foley
      This paper analyzes the financing terms that support international trade and sheds light on how these terms shape the impact of economic shocks on trade. Analysis of transaction-level data from a U.S.-based exporter of frozen and refrigerated food products, primarily...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance; Financing and Loans; Trade
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      Antràs, Pol, and C. Fritz Foley. "Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices." Journal of Political Economy 123, no. 4 (August 2015): 853–901. (Revised May 2014. Online Appendix.)
      • March 2015
      • Article

      Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates

      By: Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
      Changes in monetary policy have surprisingly strong effects on forward real rates in the distant future. A 100 basis point increase in the two-year nominal yield on a Federal Open Markets Committee announcement day is associated with a 42 basis point increase in the...  View Details
      Keywords: Policy; Interest Rates; Economics
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      Hanson, Samuel G., and Jeremy C. Stein. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates." Journal of Financial Economics 115, no. 3 (March 2015): 429–448.
      • Article

      Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

      By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
      We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Earnings; Price; Investment; Shipping Industry
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment." Quarterly Journal of Economics 130, no. 1 (February 2015): 55–109.
      • 2012
      • Article

      Do Voters Demand Responsive Governments? Evidence from Indian Disaster Relief

      By: Shawn Cole, Andrew Healy and Eric Werker
      Using rainfall, public relief, and election data from India, we examine how governments respond to adverse shocks and how voters react to these responses. The data show that voters punish the incumbent party for weather events beyond its control. However, fewer voters...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Elections; System Shocks; Natural Disasters; Policy; Motivation and Incentives; Public Opinion; India
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      Cole, Shawn, Andrew Healy, and Eric Werker. "Do Voters Demand Responsive Governments? Evidence from Indian Disaster Relief." Journal of Development Economics 97, no. 2 (March 2012): 167–181.
      • May 2008
      • Article

      Excess Comovement of Stock Returns: Evidence from Cross-sectional Variation in Nikkei 225 Weights

      By: Robin Greenwood
      In the presence of limits to arbitrage, cross-sectional variation in periodic investor demand should be related to the degree of comovement of returns. I exploit the unusual weighting system of the Nikkei 225 index in Japan to identify cross-sectional variation in...  View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Investment; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Weight; Performance Expectations; Behavior; Japan
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      Greenwood, Robin. "Excess Comovement of Stock Returns: Evidence from Cross-sectional Variation in Nikkei 225 Weights." Review of Financial Studies 21, no. 3 (May 2008): 1153–1186.
      • November 2006
      • Case

      Organics: Coming Center Stage?

      By: James E. Austin and Reed Martin
      The organics movement has certainly come a long way. From hippie farming communes and a scattering of natural food stores in the 1960s, organics outgrew its origins as a counterculture curiosity of the 1970s to become the fastest growing segment of the food industry in...  View Details
      Keywords: Food; Supply and Industry; Consumer Behavior; Competitive Advantage; Competitive Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; United States
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      Austin, James E., and Reed Martin. "Organics: Coming Center Stage?" Harvard Business School Case 907-405, November 2006.
      • March 2005
      • Article

      Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

      By: Robin Greenwood
      I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be...  View Details
      Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan
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      Greenwood, Robin. "Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage." Journal of Financial Economics 75, no. 3 (March 2005): 607–649.
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