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- November 2023
- Article
A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the...
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- August 2023 (Revised October 2023)
- Case
Beyond the Barricades: Chile 2023
Chile, often considered among Latin America´s greatest economic success stories, suffered a shocking wave of protests in October 2019, as its citizens demanded reforms across healthcare and education systems, and protested inequality and rising costs of living. As...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Who Invests in Crypto? Wealth, Financial Constraints, and Risk Attitudes
By: Darren Aiello, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson and Jason Kotter
We provide a first look into the drivers of household cryptocurrency investing. Analyzing
consumer transaction data for millions of U.S. households, we find that, except for high income
early adopters, cryptocurrency investors resemble the general population. These...
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- Winter 2022
- Article
Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted
The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about...
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- January 2022
- Article
Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?
By: Shai Benjamin Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli, Davide Malacrino and Timothy McQuade
We examine the characteristics of the individuals who become entrepreneurs when local opportunities arise. We identify local demand shocks by linking fluctuations in global commodity prices to municipality level agricultural endowments in Brazil. We find that the firm...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Financial Flexibility and Corporate Employment
By: Rebecca Lester, Ethan Rouen and Braden Williams
We study the role of financial flexibility on COVID-19 employment actions. Using daily data from March through May 2020 for 354 of the largest U.S. employers, we find that firms facing a negative demand shock were 28.8 percentage points more likely to reduce their...
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Keywords:
Financial Flexibility;
COVID-19;
Pandemic;
Employment;
Health Pandemics;
System Shocks;
Finance
- 2020
- Working Paper
EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms
By: Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra and Marcela Eslava
Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on...
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- Fall 2019
- Article
Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals
By: Kyle Myers and Mark Pauly
We examine trends in the productivity of the pharmaceutical sector over the past three decades. Motivated by Ricardo’s insight that productivity and rents are endogenous to demand when inputs are scarce, we examine the industry’s aggregate R&D production function....
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- 2019
- Working Paper
The Effect of Payment Choices on Online Retail: Evidence from the 2016 Indian Demonetization
By: Chaithanya Bandi, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe and Zhiji Xu
The Indian banknote demonetization in 2016 was one of the most significant international events of that year. Overnight, 86% of Indian currency in circulation was declared invalid unless exchanged for new bills. The sudden and unexpected demonetization constituted a...
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- 2019
- Working Paper
Second Chance: Life with Less Student Debt
By: Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda and Vincent Yao
Rising student debt is considered one of the creeping threats of our time. This paper examines the effect of student debt relief on individual credit and labor market outcomes. We exploit the plausibly random debt discharge due to the inability of National Collegiate,...
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- 2019
- Working Paper
Government Technology Policy, Social Value, and National Competitiveness
By: Frank Nagle
This study seeks to better understand the impact that government technology procurement regulations have on social value and national competitiveness. To do this, it examines the impact of a change in France’s technology procurement policy that required government...
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- 2019
- Working Paper
Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys
By: Rafael Di Tella and Dani Rodrik
We study preferences for government action in response to layoffs resulting from different types of labor-market shocks. We consider the following shocks: technological change, a demand shift, bad management, and three kinds of international outsourcing. Respondents...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions
By: Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller
We consider the identification of empirical models of supply and demand with imperfect
competition. We show that a covariance restriction on unobserved demand and cost shocks
resolves endogeneity and identifies the price parameter. We demonstrate how to employ...
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- 2017
- Working Paper
The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer
By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani
We assess the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) serves as an automatic stabilizer to mitigate the economy's sensitivity to shocks. Using a local labor market design based on heterogeneity in local benefit generosity (defined as the percentage of household...
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- August 2015
- Article
Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices
By: Pol Antràs and C. Fritz Foley
This paper analyzes the financing terms that support international trade and sheds light on how these terms shape the impact of economic shocks on trade. Analysis of transaction-level data from a U.S.-based exporter of frozen and refrigerated food products, primarily...
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- March 2015
- Article
Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates
By: Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
Changes in monetary policy have surprisingly strong effects on forward real rates in the distant future. A 100 basis point increase in the two-year nominal yield on a Federal Open Markets Committee announcement day is associated with a 42 basis point increase in the...
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- Article
Waves in Ship Prices and Investment
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low...
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- 2012
- Article
Do Voters Demand Responsive Governments? Evidence from Indian Disaster Relief
By: Shawn Cole, Andrew Healy and Eric Werker
Using rainfall, public relief, and election data from India, we examine how governments respond to adverse shocks and how voters react to these responses. The data show that voters punish the incumbent party for weather events beyond its control. However, fewer voters...
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- May 2008
- Article
Excess Comovement of Stock Returns: Evidence from Cross-sectional Variation in Nikkei 225 Weights
By: Robin Greenwood
In the presence of limits to arbitrage, cross-sectional variation in periodic investor demand should be related to the degree of comovement of returns. I exploit the unusual weighting system of the Nikkei 225 index in Japan to identify cross-sectional variation in...
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Keywords:
Stocks;
Investment;
Investment Return;
Market Transactions;
Weight;
Performance Expectations;
Behavior;
Japan
- November 2006
- Case
Organics: Coming Center Stage?
By: James E. Austin and Reed Martin
The organics movement has certainly come a long way. From hippie farming communes and a scattering of natural food stores in the 1960s, organics outgrew its origins as a counterculture curiosity of the 1970s to become the fastest growing segment of the food industry in...
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