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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (592)
      • Faculty Publications  (116)

      Demand Analysis Remove Demand Analysis →

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      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation

      By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor I. Bojinov
      Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to...  View Details
      Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Research and Development; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior
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      Ham, Dae Woong, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-070, May 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Using GPT for Market Research

      By: James Brand, Ayelet Israeli and Donald Ngwe
      Large language models (LLMs) have quickly become popular as labor-augmenting tools for programming, writing, and many other processes that benefit from quick text generation. In this paper we explore the uses and benefits of LLMs for researchers and practitioners who...  View Details
      Keywords: Large Language Model; Research; AI and Machine Learning; Analysis; Customers; Consumer Behavior; Technology Industry; Information Technology Industry
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      Brand, James, Ayelet Israeli, and Donald Ngwe. "Using GPT for Market Research." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-062, April 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      A Welfare Analysis of Gambling in Video Games

      By: Tomomichi Amano and Andrey Simonov
      In 2020, gamers worldwide spent more than $15 billion on loot boxes, a lottery of virtual items built into video games. Loot boxes are contentious, as regulators worry that they constitute gambling. In contrast, video game companies maintain that loot boxes are...  View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Policy; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Product Design; Video Game Industry
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      Amano, Tomomichi, and Andrey Simonov. "A Welfare Analysis of Gambling in Video Games." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-052, February 2023.
      • March–April 2023
      • Article

      Market Segmentation Trees

      By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
      Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing
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      Aouad, Ali, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira, and Ryan McNellis. "Market Segmentation Trees." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 648–667.
      • December 2022
      • Technical Note

      Risks and Opportunities from the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: A Business Analysis Framework

      By: George Serafeim
      The transition to a low carbon economy introduces many risks and opportunities for businesses. Risks emerge from regulatory actions, such as carbon taxes and cap and trade systems, technological innovation that develop alternatives for customers making existing...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk Assessment; Opportunities; Environmental Sustainability; Carbon Footprint; Risk Management; Competitive Dynamics; Business Analysis; Climate Change; Accounting; Finance; Valuation; Business and Shareholder Relations; Technological Innovation; Transition; Product Positioning; Renewable Energy; Analysis
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      Serafeim, George. "Risks and Opportunities from the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: A Business Analysis Framework." Harvard Business School Technical Note 123-014, December 2022.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals

      By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
      Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response, which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to...  View Details
      Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-023, October 2022. (Revised April 2023.)
      • Article

      Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

      By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang
      We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of...  View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Demand and Consumers; Investment
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      Egan, Mark, Alexander J. MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds." Review of Economic Studies 89, no. 5 (October 2022): 2559–2599.
      • August 2022
      • Supplement

      Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations

      By: Ayelet Israeli
      This exercise can be used in conjunction with the main case "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing" to facilitate class discussion without requiring data analysis from the students. Instead, the exercise presents reports that were created by the data science team to answer the...  View Details
      Keywords: Pricing; Pricing Algorithms; Dynamic Pricing; Ecommerce; Pricing Strategy; Pricing And Revenue Management; Apparel; Singapore; Startup; Demand Estimation; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Exercise; Price; Internet and the Web; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry; Singapore
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      Israeli, Ayelet. "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations." Harvard Business School Supplement 523-032, August 2022.
      • August 2022
      • Article

      The Bulletproof Glass Effect: Unintended Consequences of Privacy Notices

      By: Aaron R. Brough, David A. Norton, Shannon L. Sciarappa and Leslie K. John
      Drawing from a content analysis of publicly traded companies’ privacy notices, a survey of managers, a field study, and five online experiments, this research investigates how consumers respond to privacy notices. A privacy notice, by placing legally enforceable limits...  View Details
      Keywords: Choice; Purchase Intent; Privacy; Privacy Notices; Warnings; Assurances; Information Disclosure; Trust; Consumer Behavior; Spending; Decisions; Information; Communication
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      Brough, Aaron R., David A. Norton, Shannon L. Sciarappa, and Leslie K. John. "The Bulletproof Glass Effect: Unintended Consequences of Privacy Notices." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 59, no. 4 (August 2022): 739–754.
      • May 2022
      • Article

      Complex Disclosure

      By: Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca and Daniel Martin
      We present evidence that unnecessarily complex disclosure can result from strategic incentives to shroud information. In our lab experiment, senders are required to report their private information truthfully, but can choose how complex to make their reports. We find...  View Details
      Keywords: Disclosure; Experiments; Naiveté; Overconfidence; Corporate Disclosure; Policy; Information; Complexity; Strategy; Consumer Behavior
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      Jin, Ginger Zhe, Michael Luca, and Daniel Martin. "Complex Disclosure." Management Science 68, no. 5 (May 2022): 3236–3261.
      • February 18, 2022
      • Article

      Transparency as a Solution for COVID-19 Related Hospital Capacity Issues

      By: Regina E. Herzlinger and Richard Boxer
      In the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, many U.S. hospitals could not provide an adequate supply of beds to meet demand. Solving the problem of hospital bed capacity is of great importance in the “new normal,” which requires recognizing that SARS-CoV-2 is but...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID; COVID-19 Pandemic; Health Care; Health Care Demand; Health Care Delivery; Health Care Industry; Health Care Operations; Health Care Policy; Transparency; Hospital; Hospital Management; Hospitals; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Service Delivery; Operations; Performance Capacity; Policy; Health Industry
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      Herzlinger, Regina E., and Richard Boxer. "Transparency as a Solution for COVID-19 Related Hospital Capacity Issues." Health Affairs Forefront (February 18, 2022).
      • Winter 2021
      • Article

      Mobile Internet Usage and Usage-based Pricing

      By: Jeffrey Prince and Shane Greenstein
      Using data on mobile Internet usage of thousands of individuals, we provide some of the first analyses linking mobile usage to key demographics such as income. We find a reverse-U relationship between mobile Internet usage and income—notably different than the...  View Details
      Keywords: Mobile Internet Usage; Pricing Strategy; Internet and the Web; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Demographics; Income; Price; Strategy
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      Prince, Jeffrey, and Shane Greenstein. "Mobile Internet Usage and Usage-based Pricing." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 30, no. 4 (Winter 2021): 760–783.
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

      By: Nicolas Padilla and Eva Ascarza
      The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Programs; Consumer Behavior; Analysis
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      Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 58, no. 5 (October 2021): 981–1006.
      • September 2021 (Revised December 2021)
      • Case

      Telepass: From Tolling to Mobility Platform

      By: Chiara Farronato, Stefano Denicolai and Sarah Mehta
      Telepass, until very recently the sole processor of electronic toll payments on Italy’s highways, has ambitions beyond tolling. Since the mid-2010s, the company has been expanding into adjacent services. In 2017, Telepass launched TelepassPay—a mobile payment...  View Details
      Keywords: Mobile Payment; App; Mobility Services; Analysis; Change; Change Management; Transformation; Transition; Innovation and Invention; Strategy; Information Technology; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Transportation; Transportation Networks; Value; Value Creation; Consumer Behavior; Technology Industry; Transportation Industry; Insurance Industry; Europe; Italy; Milan
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      Farronato, Chiara, Stefano Denicolai, and Sarah Mehta. "Telepass: From Tolling to Mobility Platform." Harvard Business School Case 622-011, September 2021. (Revised December 2021.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      How Important Is Editorial Gatekeeping? Evidence from Top Biomedical Journals

      By: Joshua L. Krieger, Kyle R. Myers and Ariel D. Stern
      We examine editors’ influence on the scientific content of academic journals by unpacking the role of three major forces: journals’ stated missions, the aggregate supply of and demand for specific topics, and scientific homophily via editorial gatekeeping. In...  View Details
      Keywords: Jobs and Positions; Operations; Information Publishing; Analysis
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      Krieger, Joshua L., Kyle R. Myers, and Ariel D. Stern. "How Important Is Editorial Gatekeeping? Evidence from Top Biomedical Journals." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-011, September 2021. (Revised January 2023. Accepted at Review of Economics and Statistics.)
      • August 2021
      • Case

      Precision Paint Co.

      By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Chiara Farronato, Janice H. Hammond, Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
      Describes a marketing director about to launch a new process for demand forecasting. Provides data that allow students to do a multivariable regression analysis. A rewritten version of an earlier case.  View Details
      Keywords: Regression; Prediction; Forecasting; Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., Chiara Farronato, Janice H. Hammond, Michael Parzen, and Paul Hamilton. "Precision Paint Co." Harvard Business School Case 622-055, August 2021.
      • July 2021
      • Article

      The Effect of Price on Firm Reputation

      By: Michael Luca and Oren Reshef
      While a business's reputation can affect its pricing, prices can also affect its reputation. To explore the effect of prices on reputation, we investigate daily data on menu prices and online ratings from a large rating and ordering platform. We find that a price...  View Details
      Keywords: Pricing; Reputation Systems; IT Policy And Management; Economics Of Digital Platforms; Business Ventures; Reputation; Price; Consumer Behavior; Analysis
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      Luca, Michael, and Oren Reshef. "The Effect of Price on Firm Reputation." Management Science 67, no. 7 (July 2021): 4408–4419.
      • May 2021
      • Simulation

      Customer Compatibility Exercise Application

      By: Ryan W. Buell
      Customers impose considerable variability on the operating systems of service organizations. They show up when they wish (arrival variability), they ask for different things (request variability), they vary in their willingness and ability to help themselves (effort...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Compatibility; Customer Relationship Management; Strategy; Service Operations; Service Delivery; Performance Efficiency; Analysis; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science
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      Buell, Ryan W. "Customer Compatibility Exercise Application." Harvard Business School Simulation 620-707, May 2021.
      • May 26, 2021
      • Article

      The Challenge of Rebuilding U.S. Domestic Supply Chains

      By: Willy C. Shih, Robert S. Huckman and James Wyner
      Massachusetts-based Shawmut scrambled to expand production to meet the soaring demand for N95 masks and hospital gowns during the pandemic. Its experience illustrates a crucial point that policymakers should take to heart: Once a country loses its industrial commons...  View Details
      Keywords: Supply Chain; Health Pandemics; Production; Management; United States
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      Shih, Willy C., Robert S. Huckman, and James Wyner. "The Challenge of Rebuilding U.S. Domestic Supply Chains." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (May 26, 2021).
      • May 2021
      • Teaching Note

      American Airlines' Value Pricing (Abridged)

      By: Sunil Gupta and Alvin J. Silk
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 519-019.  View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Marketing; Market Segmentation; Pricing; Pricing Strategy; Demand Analysis; Competition; Marketing; Segmentation; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Analysis; Air Transportation Industry
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      Gupta, Sunil, and Alvin J. Silk. "American Airlines' Value Pricing (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 521-108, May 2021.
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