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- Faculty Publications (43)
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- August 2006
- Article
Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default
By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann
In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation...
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Hanson, Samuel G., and Til Schuermann. "Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default." Journal of Banking & Finance 30, no. 8 (August 2006).
- August 2023
- Article
Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?
By: Samuel B. Bonsall IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III and Anywhere Sikochi
We examine whether rating agencies act defensively toward issuers with a higher likelihood of default. We find that agencies' qualitative soft rating adjustments are more accurate as issuers' default risk grows, as evidenced by the adjustments leading to lower Type I...
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Keywords:
Credit Rating Agencies;
Soft Rating Adjustments;
Default;
Credit;
Performance Evaluation;
Measurement and Metrics;
Financial Institutions;
Risk Management
Bonsall, Samuel B., IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?" Management Science 69, no. 8 (August 2023): 4864–4887.
- July 2002
- Case
First American Bank: Credit Default Swaps
This case examines a bank's ability to manage its credit exposure to a particular client using credit default swaps.
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Chacko, George C., and Eli Strick. "First American Bank: Credit Default Swaps." Harvard Business School Case 203-033, July 2002.
- February 2010
- Case
Saginaw Parts Co. and the General Motors Corp. Credit Default Swap
This two-page case demonstrates how to unbundle the cost of credit extensions from product prices by observing the price of a credit default swap. It also explores how credit default swaps work, and how trade creditors are treated under U.S. bankruptcy law. Finally it...
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Keywords:
Trade;
Credit;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Credit Derivatives and Swaps;
Laws and Statutes;
Risk Management;
Auto Industry;
United States
Fruhan, William E. "Saginaw Parts Co. and the General Motors Corp. Credit Default Swap." Harvard Business School Case 210-056, February 2010.
- Research Summary
Time Varying Expected Returns, Stochastic Dividend Yields, and Default Probabilities: Linking the Credit Risk and Equity Literature (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)
In standard structural bond pricing models, the firm defaults once the market value of assets has fallen below a threshold. Expected returns, or at least dividend yields, are assumed to be constant, which implies that any asset value movement is permanent and has the...
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- September 2008
- Article
Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification
By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann
This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is...
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Keywords:
Volatility;
Credit;
Investment Return;
Outcome or Result;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Loss;
Diversification;
Complexity;
United States
Hanson, Samuel G., M. Hashem Pesaran, and Til Schuermann. "Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification." Journal of Empirical Finance 15, no. 4 (September 2008): 583–612.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk
By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr
A confidential dataset with industry-level disaggregation of U.S. cross-border claims and liabilities, shows U.S. securities to be increasingly intermediated by tax-haven-financial-centers (THFC) and less regulated funds. These securities are risky, in...
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Keywords:
Tax Havens;
Financial Centers;
Geography Of Flows;
Profit Shifting;
Tax Avoidance;
Risk;
Safe Assets;
Hetergeneous Firms;
Endogenous Entry;
Endogenous Monitoring;
Regulatory Arbitrage;
Assets;
Safety;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Capital;
Global Range
Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr. "Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-099, March 2020. (Revised February 2021.)
- February 2023
- Article
OTC Intermediaries
By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane
We study the effect of dealer exit on prices and quantities in a model of an over-the-counter (OTC) market featuring a core-periphery network with bilateral trading costs. The model is calibrated using regulatory data on the entire U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market...
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Keywords:
OTC Markets;
Intermediaries;
Dealers;
Credit Default Swaps;
Risk Sharing;
Financial Markets;
Networks;
Price;
Risk and Uncertainty
Eisfeldt, Andrea L., Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan, and Emil Siriwardane. "OTC Intermediaries." Review of Financial Studies 36, no. 2 (February 2023): 615–677.
- December 2002 (Revised January 2004)
- Case
Basel II: Assessing the Default and Loss Characteristics of Project Finance Loans (A)
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Aldo Sesia
In June 1999, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision announced plans to revise the capital standards for banks. The Basel Committee believed that project loans were significantly riskier than corporate loans and, therefore, warranted higher capital charges under...
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Keywords:
Risk and Uncertainty;
Project Finance;
Financing and Loans;
Projects;
Standards;
Banks and Banking;
Banking Industry
Esty, Benjamin C., and Aldo Sesia. "Basel II: Assessing the Default and Loss Characteristics of Project Finance Loans (A)." Harvard Business School Case 203-035, December 2002. (Revised January 2004.)
- 2018
- Working Paper
OTC Intermediaries
By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane
Over-the-counter (OTC) markets for financial assets are dominated by a relatively small number of core intermediaries and a large number of peripheral customers. In this paper, we develop a model of trade in a core-periphery network and estimate its key structural...
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Keywords:
OTC Markets;
Intermediaries;
Dealers;
Credit Default Swaps;
Risk Sharing;
Networks;
Price;
Risk and Uncertainty
Eisfeldt, Andrea L., Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan, and Emil Siriwardane. "OTC Intermediaries." Working Paper, August 2018.
- 19 Sep 2011
- Research & Ideas
Doomsday Coming for Catastrophic Risk Insurers?
chance of a Greek or Italian default today or the risks in the mortgage market in the United States viewed from the perspective of 2006." A Peek To The Future What fate befalls policyholders should...
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- 2009
- Working Paper
Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect
By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton
The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market—rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities—led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is...
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- 2009
- Working Paper
Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect
By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton
The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market-rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities-led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is...
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Khandani, Amir E., Andrew W. Lo, and Robert C. Merton. "Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-023, September 2009. (Revised July 2010.)
- 01 Oct 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect
- 24 Mar 2008
- Research & Ideas
Reducing Risk with Online Advertising
merchants? What should they know before signing a contract? A: The main insight in my paper is that default contract terms—obvious contract terms—are not the only possible terms. It may be that you pay most of your suppliers on standard...
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- Research Summary
Concentrated Capital Losses and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk
In studying the U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market, Professor Siriwardane has discovered that the selling of CDS protection is extremely concentrated, with five sellers accounting for nearly half the market. Further, in contrast to what neoclassical theory... View Details
- 2020
- Working Paper
Corporate Leadership and Creditor Recovery Rates: Evidence from Executive Gender
By: Clarissa Hauptmann, Syrena Shirley and Anywhere Sikochi
We examine the relationship between the gender of executives and corporate creditor recovery rates. Using 2,288 defaulted debt instruments, we find that female executives are associated with higher creditor recovery rates. Our findings are robust to tests that correct...
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Keywords:
Executive Gender;
Default;
Recovery Rates;
Debt;
Corporate Bonds;
Conservatism;
Leadership;
Gender;
Borrowing and Debt;
Bonds;
Risk Management
Hauptmann, Clarissa, Syrena Shirley, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Corporate Leadership and Creditor Recovery Rates: Evidence from Executive Gender." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-087, February 2020.
- 13 Nov 2006
- Working Paper Summaries
A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of An Economy
- 2021
- Working Paper
No-fault Default, Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, and Financial Institutions
By: Robert C. Merton and Richard T. Thakor
This paper analyzes the costs and benefits of a no-fault-default debt structure as an alternative to the typical bankruptcy process. We show that the deadweight costs of bankruptcy can be avoided or substantially reduced through no-fault-default debt, which permits a...
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Keywords:
No-fault Default;
Chapter 11;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Borrowing and Debt;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Financial Institutions;
Contracts
Merton, Robert C., and Richard T. Thakor. "No-fault Default, Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, and Financial Institutions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28341, January 2021.
- October 2019
- Article
Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads
Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data, I investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the CDS market. Seller capital shocks—measured as CDS portfolio margin payments—account for 12% of the time-series variation in weekly spread...
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Keywords:
Credit Risk;
Derivatives;
Credit Derivatives and Swaps;
Capital Markets;
Credit;
Financial Institutions
Siriwardane, Emil N. "Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads." Journal of Finance 74, no. 5 (October 2019): 2303–2347.