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      • Faculty Publications  (1,001)

      Decision Choice And Uncertainty Remove Decision Choice And Uncertainty →

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      • May–June 2023
      • Article

      Should Your Start-up Be For-profit or Nonprofit?: A Guide for Social Entrepreneurs

      By: Cait Brumme and Brian Trelstad
      Years ago the line between nonprofit and for-profit enterprises was clear, but that has changed. Nonprofits now offer products that compete with those of the best for-profits, and for-profits can deliver as much social value as charities. Despite the blurred...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Social Entrepreneurship; Mission and Purpose; Nonprofit Organizations; For-Profit Firms; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Brumme, Cait, and Brian Trelstad. "Should Your Start-up Be For-profit or Nonprofit? A Guide for Social Entrepreneurs." Harvard Business Review 101, no. 3 (May–June 2023): 136–145.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Cryptocurrency Investing: Stimulus Checks and Inflation Expectations

      By: Darren Aiello, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson and Jason Kotter
      We provide a first look into the factors that affect retail investing in cryptocurrencies. We use consumer transaction data to examine how borrower characteristics, liquidity shocks, and hedging requirements shape crypto investment decisions of millions of U.S....  View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Finance; Cryptocurrency; Fintech; Inflation; Portfolio Choice; Stimulus; Consumer Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment
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      Aiello, Darren, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson, and Jason Kotter. "Cryptocurrency Investing: Stimulus Checks and Inflation Expectations." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-073, May 2023.
      • May 2023
      • Article

      How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

      By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
      We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Debates; TV Debates; Voting; Political Elections; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Le Pennec, Caroline, and Vincent Pons. "How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138 (May 2023): 703–767.
      • May 2023
      • Article

      Political Ideology and International Capital Allocation

      By: Elisabeth Kempf, Mancy Luo, Larissa Schäfer and Margarita Tsoutsoura
      Does investors' political ideology shape international capital allocation? We provide evidence from two settings—syndicated corporate loans and equity mutual funds—to show ideological alignment with foreign governments affects the cross-border capital allocation by...  View Details
      Keywords: Capital Flows; Syndicated Loans; Mutual Funds; Partisanship; Polarization; Elections; Political Ideology; Banks and Banking; Institutional Investing; Behavioral Finance; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Kempf, Elisabeth, Mancy Luo, Larissa Schäfer, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. "Political Ideology and International Capital Allocation." Journal of Financial Economics 148, no. 2 (May 2023): 150–173.
      • April 2023
      • Case

      Fizzy Fusion: When Data-Driven Decision Making Failed

      By: Michael Parzen, Eddie Lin, Douglas Ng and Jessie Li
      This is a case about a fictional New York beverage company called Fizzy Fusion. The business is facing supply chain and inventory management challenges with its new product, SparklingSip. Despite seeking help from a data science consulting firm, the machine learning...  View Details
      Keywords: Supply Chain Management; Production; Risk and Uncertainty; Analytics and Data Science; Food and Beverage Industry
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      Parzen, Michael, Eddie Lin, Douglas Ng, and Jessie Li. "Fizzy Fusion: When Data-Driven Decision Making Failed." Harvard Business School Case 623-071, April 2023.
      • March 2023
      • Teaching Note

      Ransomware at Springhill Medical Center

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and Li-Kuan Ni
      In July, 2019, Springhill Medical Center (“SMC”) in Mobile, Alabama fell prey to a malicious ransomware attack that crippled the hospital’s internal network systems and public-facing web page. While the hospital rushed to securely restore the network, medical personnel...  View Details
      Keywords: Disruption; Communication; Communication Strategy; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Governance; Governance Controls; Policy; Employees; News; Cybersecurity; Digital Strategy; Information Infrastructure; Information Management; Internet and the Web; Crisis Management; Business or Company Management; Resource Allocation; Risk Management; Negotiation Tactics; Failure; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Attitudes; Behavior; Perception; Reputation; Trust; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Health Industry; Alabama; United States
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and Li-Kuan Ni. "Ransomware at Springhill Medical Center." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 123-068, March 2023.
      • March 2023
      • Teaching Note

      Ransomware Attack at Colonial Pipeline Company

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and Li-Kuan Ni
      On the morning of May 7, 2021, Colonial Pipeline Company became aware that the company had been the victim of a malicious ransomware attack that had stolen and locked up company data. The extortionists demanded 75 bitcoins (worth about $4.4 million at the time) in...  View Details
      Keywords: Disruption; Communication; Communication Strategy; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Governance; Governance Controls; Policy; Employees; News; Cybersecurity; Digital Strategy; Information Infrastructure; Information Management; Internet and the Web; Crisis Management; Business or Company Management; Resource Allocation; Risk Management; Negotiation Tactics; Failure; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Attitudes; Behavior; Perception; Reputation; Trust; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Infrastructure; Distribution Industry; United States; Alabama
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and Li-Kuan Ni. "Ransomware Attack at Colonial Pipeline Company." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 123-070, March 2023.
      • March 2023
      • Case

      Ransomware Attack at Colonial Pipeline Company

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and Li-Kuan Ni
      On the morning of May 7, 2021, Colonial Pipeline Company became aware that the company had been the victim of a malicious ransomware attack that had stolen and locked up company data. The extortionists demanded 75 bitcoins (worth about $4.4 million at the time) in...  View Details
      Keywords: Disruption; Communication; Communication Strategy; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Governance; Governance Controls; Policy; Employees; News; Cybersecurity; Digital Strategy; Information Infrastructure; Information Management; Internet and the Web; Crisis Management; Business or Company Management; Resource Allocation; Risk Management; Negotiation Tactics; Failure; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Attitudes; Behavior; Perception; Reputation; Trust; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Infrastructure; Distribution Industry; United States; Alabama
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and Li-Kuan Ni. "Ransomware Attack at Colonial Pipeline Company." Harvard Business School Case 123-069, March 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Complexity and Time

      By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
      We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives
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      Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Complexity and Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31047, March 2023.
      • March 2023
      • Article

      Learning to Successfully Hire in Online Labor Markets

      By: Marios Kokkodis and Sam Ransbotham
      Hiring in online labor markets involves considerable uncertainty: which hiring choices are more likely to yield successful outcomes and how do employers adjust their hiring behaviors to make such choices? We argue that employers will initially explore the value of...  View Details
      Keywords: Selection and Staffing; Analysis; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Kokkodis, Marios, and Sam Ransbotham. "Learning to Successfully Hire in Online Labor Markets." Management Science 69, no. 3 (March 2023): 1597–1614.
      • March–April 2023
      • Article

      Market Segmentation Trees

      By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
      Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing
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      Aouad, Ali, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira, and Ryan McNellis. "Market Segmentation Trees." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 648–667.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Senior Team Emotional Dynamics and Strategic Decision Making at a Platform Transition

      By: Timo O. Vuori and Michael L. Tushman
      Based on an inductive case study, we develop an emotional-temporal process model of an incumbent’s strategic decision making at a platform transition. We describe the senior team’s emotional response to this transition and the impact of these emotions on their...  View Details
      Keywords: Emotions; Decision Choices and Conditions; Transition; Digital Platforms
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      Vuori, Timo O., and Michael L. Tushman. "Senior Team Emotional Dynamics and Strategic Decision Making at a Platform Transition." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-054, March 2023.
      • February 2023
      • Case

      Ransomware Attack at Springhill Medical Center

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and Li-Kuan (Jason) Ni
      In July, 2019, Springhill Medical Center (“SMC”) in Mobile, Alabama fell prey to a malicious ransomware attack that crippled the hospital’s internal network systems and public-facing web page. While the hospital rushed to securely restore the network, medical personnel...  View Details
      Keywords: Disruption; Communication; Communication Strategy; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Governance; Governance Controls; Policy; Employees; News; Cybersecurity; Digital Strategy; Information Infrastructure; Information Management; Internet and the Web; Crisis Management; Resource Allocation; Risk Management; Negotiation Tactics; Failure; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Attitudes; Behavior; Perception; Reputation; Trust; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Health Industry; United States; Alabama
      Citation
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and Li-Kuan (Jason) Ni. "Ransomware Attack at Springhill Medical Center." Harvard Business School Case 123-065, February 2023.
      • February 2023
      • Case

      Ronald Reagan: Changing the World

      By: Robert Simons and Shirley Sun
      This case traces the rise of Ronald Reagan from small town Illinois to two-term president of the United States. An unlikely candidate for the world’s most powerful job, the case describes the different roles that Reagan filled over his life: radio announcer, Hollywood...  View Details
      Keywords: Politics; Entertainment; Personal Characteristics; Business And Government; Values And Beliefs; Mission And Purpose; Decision Making; Government Administration; Management Style; Power and Influence; United States
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      Simons, Robert, and Shirley Sun. "Ronald Reagan: Changing the World." Harvard Business School Case 123-024, February 2023.
      • February 2023
      • Supplement

      Shanty Real Estate: Teaching Note Supplement

      By: Michael Luca
      Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
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      Luca, Michael. "Shanty Real Estate: Teaching Note Supplement." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 923-715, February 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Unselfish Alibis Increase Choices of Selfish Autonomous Vehicles

      By: Julian De Freitas
      Human drivers routinely make implicit tradeoffs between their selfish interests and the safety of passengers, as when they perform a rolling stop in order to reach their destination faster. Here I explore whether they are comfortable with autonomous vehicles (AVs) that...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Safety; Attitudes; Technology Adoption
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      De Freitas, Julian. "Unselfish Alibis Increase Choices of Selfish Autonomous Vehicles." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-043, February 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Leadership and the Value of Persistence

      By: James J. Anton, Alan Jaske and Dennis Yao
      Consider a leader’s decision whether to persist with an unsuccessful R&D project or to terminate the project in favor of a new project with an uncertain value. How does that decision affect the effort exerted by the manager assigned to the project? To study this...  View Details
      Keywords: Persistence; Project Evaluation; R&D Project Management; Projects; Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership
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      Anton, James J., Alan Jaske, and Dennis Yao. "Leadership and the Value of Persistence." Working Paper, January 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Summarizing the Mental Customer Journey

      By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp, Pechthida Kim and Tomer Ullman
      How do consumers summarize and act on their experiences, as when deciding whether an interaction with a firm was satisfying and whether to buy from it? Previous work on the summary of continuous experiences has tended to focus on a handful of experience patterns and...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Experience; Customer Journey; Natural Language Processing; Summarization; Customer Satisfaction; Outcome or Result; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      De Freitas, Julian, Ahmet Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp, Pechthida Kim, and Tomer Ullman. "Summarizing the Mental Customer Journey." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-038, January 2023.
      • December 2022
      • Case

      To Feed the Planet: Juan Luciano at ADM

      By: Joshua D. Margolis, David E. Bell, Damien McLoughlin, Stacy Straaberg and James Weber
      In December 2022, Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO of agribusiness and nutrition giant ADM, considered the next phase of the historic company’s future. Beginning in 2011 when he joined as COO and moving into his tenure as CEO in 2015, Luciano led a transformation of ADM...  View Details
      Keywords: Agriculture; Leadership; Agribusiness; Acquisition; Business Units; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customer Value and Value Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Cash; Cost of Capital; Cost Management; Profit; Food; Global Range; Innovation Strategy; Leadership Development; Leadership Style; Leading Change; Growth and Development Strategy; Risk Management; Organizational Culture; Organizational Structure; Strategic Planning; Risk and Uncertainty; Adaptation; Business Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Vertical Integration; Value Creation; Transformation; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; United States; Chicago
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      Margolis, Joshua D., David E. Bell, Damien McLoughlin, Stacy Straaberg, and James Weber. "To Feed the Planet: Juan Luciano at ADM." Harvard Business School Case 423-060, December 2022.
      • December 2022 (Revised February 2023)
      • Background Note

      Brief Note on Staggered Boards

      By: Lynn S. Paine and Will Hurwitz
      This background note discusses the evolution, use, and prevalence of staggered boards. By comparison with unitary boards whose members are all elected annually for one-year terms, staggered boards are divided into subsets of directors, with one subset up for election...  View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Business History; Trends; Decision Choices and Conditions; United States
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      Paine, Lynn S., and Will Hurwitz. "Brief Note on Staggered Boards." Harvard Business School Background Note 323-040, December 2022. (Revised February 2023.)
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