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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation
By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor I Bojinov
Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to...  View Details
Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Research and Development; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior
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  • May–June 2023
  • Article

Analytics for Marketers: When to Rely on Algorithms and When to Trust Your Gut
By: Fabrizio Fantini and Das Narayandas
Advanced analytics can help companies solve a host of management problems, including those related to marketing, sales, and supply-chain operations, which can lead to a sustainable competitive advantage. But as more data becomes available and advanced analytics are...  View Details
Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Decision Making
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  • June 2023
  • Article

National Customer Orientation: An Empirical Test across 112 Countries
By: Ofer Mintz, Imran S. Currim and Rohit Deshpandé
Customer orientation is a central tenet of marketing. However, less is known about how customer orientation varies across countries and time. Mintz, Currim, and Deshpandé (Eur. J. Mark., 56: 1014–1041, 2022) propose a country-level construct, national customer...  View Details
Keywords: Global Range; Customer Focus and Relationships
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  • June 2023
  • Article

Why Is Dollar Debt Cheaper? Evidence from Peru
By: Bryan Gutiérrez, Victoria Ivashina and Juliana Salomao
In emerging markets, a significant share of corporate loans are denominated in dollars. Using novel data that enables us to see currency and the cost of credit, in addition to several other transaction-level characteristics, we re-examine the reasons behind dollar...  View Details
Keywords: Emerging Market Corporate Debt; Currency Mismatch; Liability Dollarization; Carry Trade; Currency; Emerging Markets; Borrowing and Debt; Interest Rates; Peru
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  • 2023
  • Article

Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators
By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in...  View Details
Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Design; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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  • May 2023
  • Teaching Note

TikTok and National Security: Investment in an Age of Data Sovereignty?
By: Jeremy Friedman
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 722-020.  View Details
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Setting Gendered Expectations? Recruiter Outreach Bias in Online Tech Training Programs
By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Karim R. Lakhani and Roberto Fernandez
Competence development in digital technologies, analytics, and artificial intelligence is increasingly important to all types of organizations and their workforce. Universities and corporations are investing heavily in developing training programs, at all tenure...  View Details
Keywords: STEM; Selection and Staffing; Gender; Prejudice and Bias; Training; Equality and Inequality; Competency and Skills
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Cryptocurrency Investing: Stimulus Checks and Inflation Expectations
By: Darren Aiello, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson and Jason Kotter
We provide a first look into the factors that affect retail investing in cryptocurrencies. We use consumer transaction data to examine how borrower characteristics, liquidity shocks, and hedging requirements shape crypto investment decisions of millions of U.S....  View Details
Keywords: Consumer Finance; Cryptocurrency; Fintech; Inflation; Portfolio Choice; Stimulus; Consumer Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach
By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta
We combine standard structural-break methods with high-frequency data to identify shifts in inflation trends. We use this approach to study the inflation dynamics of 25 countries from January 2022 to April 2023 and find evidence of a broad-based slowdown in about half...  View Details
Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price
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  • May 2023
  • Article

How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates
By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the...  View Details
Keywords: Political Debates; TV Debates; Voting; Political Elections; Decision Choices and Conditions
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  • April 12, 2023
  • Article

Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World
By: Das Narayandas and Arijit Sengupta
Why are some firms better and faster than others at adapting their use of customer data to respond to changing or uncertain marketing conditions? A common thread across faster-acting firms is the use of AI models to predict outcomes at various stages of the customer...  View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Competitive Advantage
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  • April 6, 2023
  • Article

A New NFT Launch Strategy: The Wave Mint
By: Scott Duke Kominers and 1337 Skulls Sers
In an NFT project, the mint—the process by which tokens are initially allocated—largely determines who your community is and how they and the broader market view the project going forward. In this piece, we review a new minting strategy recently introduced by 1337...  View Details
Keywords: NFTs; Mechanism Design; Sales Management; Sales Model; Crypto Economy; Non-fungible Tokens; Networks; Product Launch; Auctions; Market Design
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  • April 2023
  • Technical Note

An Art & A Science: How to Apply Design Thinking to Data Science Challenges
By: Michael Parzen, Eddie Lin, Douglas Ng and Jessie Li
We hear it all the time as managers: “what is the data that backs up your decisions?” Even local mom-and-pop shops now have access to complex point-of-sale systems that can closely track sales and customer data. Social media influencers have turned into seven-figure...  View Details
Keywords: Decision Making; Framework; Analytics and Data Science
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  • April 2023
  • Case

Fizzy Fusion: When Data-Driven Decision Making Failed
By: Michael Parzen, Eddie Lin, Douglas Ng and Jessie Li
This is a case about a fictional New York beverage company called Fizzy Fusion. The business is facing supply chain and inventory management challenges with its new product, SparklingSip. Despite seeking help from a data science consulting firm, the machine learning...  View Details
Keywords: Supply Chain Management; Production; Risk and Uncertainty; Analytics and Data Science; Food and Beverage Industry
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  • April 2023
  • Case

Levels: The Remote, Asynchronous, Deep Work Management System
By: Joseph B. Fuller and George Gonzalez
A remote, asynchronous startup seeks to disrupt the healthcare industry with its wellness data and education platform.  View Details
Keywords: Applications and Software; Business Startups; Organizational Culture; Management Style; Technology Industry
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  • 2023
  • Article

Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations.
By: Edward McFowland III and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi
Social influence cannot be identified from purely observational data on social networks, because such influence is generically confounded with latent homophily, that is, with a node’s network partners being informative about the node’s attributes and therefore its...  View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Homophily; Social Networks; Peer Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Power and Influence; Mathematical Methods
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  • Spring 2023
  • Article

Incentive Contract Design and Employee-Initiated Innovation: Evidence from the Field
By: Wei Cai, Susanna Gallani and Jee-Eun Shin
This study examines how the design of incentive contracts for tasks defined as workers’ official responsibilities (i.e., standard tasks) influences workers’ propensity to engage in employee-initiated innovation (EII). EII corresponds to innovation activities that are...  View Details
Keywords: Employee-initiated Innovation; Contract Design; Rank-and-file; Extra-role Behaviors; Compensation and Benefits; Motivation and Incentives; Innovation and Management
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  • April 2023
  • Article

Racial Inequality in Work Environments
By: Letian Zhang
This article explores racial stratification in work environments. Inequality scholars have long identified racial disparities in wage and occupational attainment, but workers’ careers and well-being are also shaped by elements of their work environment, including firm...  View Details
Keywords: Discrimination; Race; Equality and Inequality; Working Conditions; Personal Development and Career; Organizational Culture
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  • April 2023
  • Article

The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity
By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'...  View Details
Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Firm Level Data; Innovation; Productivity; Exporting; Importing; Credit Constraints; Currency Exchange Rate; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Organizational Responses to Product Cycles
By: Achyuta Adhvaryu, Vittorio Bassi, Anant Nyshadham, Jorge Tamayo and Nicolas Torres
Product cycles entail the mass production of new—and often increasingly complex—products on a regular basis. How do firms manage these changes? We use granular daily data from a leading automobile manufacturer to study the organizational impacts of introducing new...  View Details
Keywords: Training; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Knowledge Management; Production; Product; Organizational Structure; Auto Industry; Argentina
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