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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (1,372)
      • Faculty Publications  (279)

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      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation

      By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor I. Bojinov
      Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to...  View Details
      Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Research and Development; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior
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      Ham, Dae Woong, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-070, May 2023.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators

      By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in...  View Details
      Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Design; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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      Jakubowski, Benjamin, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators." Journal of Machine Learning Research 24, no. 133 (2023): 1–57.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta
      We combine standard structural-break methods with high-frequency data to identify shifts in inflation trends. We use this approach to study the inflation dynamics of 25 countries from January 2022 to April 2023 and find evidence of a broad-based slowdown in about half...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta. "Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach." Working Paper, May 2023. (Preliminary draft.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      A Welfare Analysis of Gambling in Video Games

      By: Tomomichi Amano and Andrey Simonov
      In 2020, gamers worldwide spent more than $15 billion on loot boxes, a lottery of virtual items built into video games. Loot boxes are contentious, as regulators worry that they constitute gambling. In contrast, video game companies maintain that loot boxes are...  View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Policy; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Product Design; Video Game Industry
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      Amano, Tomomichi, and Andrey Simonov. "A Welfare Analysis of Gambling in Video Games." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-052, February 2023.
      • March–April 2023
      • Article

      Market Segmentation Trees

      By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
      Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing
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      Aouad, Ali, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira, and Ryan McNellis. "Market Segmentation Trees." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 648–667.
      • December 2022 (Revised February 2023)
      • Case

      Akooda: Charging Toward Operational Intelligence

      By: Christopher T. Stanton and Mel Martin
      The Akooda case describes the challenges confronting founder and CEO Yuval Gonczarowski (MBA ‘17) in 2022 as he attempts to boost sales. Launched in November 2020, Akooda was an AI company that mined 20 different sources of digital data, from tools like Slack, Google...  View Details
      Keywords: Data Mining; Productivity; Monitoring; Data Analysis; AI and Machine Learning; Knowledge Management; Operations; Problems and Challenges; Employee Relationship Management; Information Technology Industry; Technology Industry; Information Industry; Boston; Israel
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      Stanton, Christopher T., and Mel Martin. "Akooda: Charging Toward Operational Intelligence." Harvard Business School Case 823-018, December 2022. (Revised February 2023.)
      • December 2022
      • Article

      The Task Bind: Explaining Gender Differences in Managerial Tasks and Performance

      By: Alexandra C. Feldberg
      This multi-method study of managers in a grocery chain identifies a novel mechanism by which threats of gender stereotypes undermine women’s ability to be effective managers. I find that women managers face a task bind, a dilemma that managers experience as they try to...  View Details
      Keywords: Gender Stereotypes; Gender; Managerial Roles; Performance Expectations
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      Feldberg, Alexandra C. "The Task Bind: Explaining Gender Differences in Managerial Tasks and Performance." Administrative Science Quarterly 67, no. 4 (December 2022): 1049–1092.
      • Article

      Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

      By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang
      We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of...  View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Demand and Consumers; Investment
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      Egan, Mark, Alexander J. MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds." Review of Economic Studies 89, no. 5 (October 2022): 2559–2599.
      • 2022
      • White Paper

      The American Opportunity Index: A Corporate Scorecard of Worker Advancement

      By: Matt Sigelman, Joseph Fuller, Nik Dawson and Gad Levanon
      The American Opportunity Index: A Corporate Scorecard of Worker Advancement is a new effort to give companies and other stakeholders a set of robust tools that measure how well major employers are doing in fostering economic mobility for workers and how they could do...  View Details
      Keywords: Upward Mobility; Career Advancement; Personal Development and Career; Compensation and Benefits; Employees; Wages; Human Capital; Recruitment
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      Sigelman, Matt, Joseph Fuller, Nik Dawson, and Gad Levanon. "The American Opportunity Index: A Corporate Scorecard of Worker Advancement." White Paper, Burning Glass Institute, October 2022 (A joint project with Harvard Business School Project on Managing the Future of Work and Schultz Family Foundation.)
      • September 16, 2022
      • Article

      A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties

      By: Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson and Sinan Aral
      The authors analyzed data from multiple large-scale randomized experiments on LinkedIn’s People You May Know algorithm, which recommends new connections to LinkedIn members, to test the extent to which weak ties increased job mobility in the world’s largest...  View Details
      Keywords: Job Mobility; Social Networks; Social Ties; Networks; Personal Development and Career
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      Rajkumar, Karthik, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Sinan Aral. "A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties." Science 377, no. 6612 (September 16, 2022).
      • September 2022 (Revised November 2022)
      • Teaching Note

      PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion

      By: Ayelet Israeli
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 522-046.  View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Pricing; Pricing Algorithm; Pricing Decisions; Pricing Strategy; Pricing Structure; Promotion; Promotions; Online Marketing; Data-driven Decision-making; Data-driven Management; Retail; Retail Analytics; Price; Advertising Campaigns; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Digital Marketing; Budgets and Budgeting; Marketing Strategy; Marketing; Transformation; Decision Making; AI and Machine Learning; Retail Industry; Italy
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      Israeli, Ayelet. "PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 523-020, September 2022. (Revised November 2022.)
      • August 2022
      • Supplement

      Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations

      By: Ayelet Israeli
      This exercise can be used in conjunction with the main case "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing" to facilitate class discussion without requiring data analysis from the students. Instead, the exercise presents reports that were created by the data science team to answer the...  View Details
      Keywords: Pricing; Pricing Algorithms; Dynamic Pricing; Ecommerce; Pricing Strategy; Pricing And Revenue Management; Apparel; Singapore; Startup; Demand Estimation; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Exercise; Price; Internet and the Web; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry; Singapore
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      Israeli, Ayelet. "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations." Harvard Business School Supplement 523-032, August 2022.
      • August, 2022
      • Article

      Billing and Insurance-Related Administrative Costs: A Cross-National Analysis

      By: Barak D. Richman, Robert S. Kaplan, Japees Kohli, Dennis Purcell, Mahek Shah, Igna Bonfrer, Brian Golden, Rosemary Hannam, Will Mitchell, Daniel Cehic, Garry Crispin and Kevin A. Schulman
      Billing and insurance-related costs are a significant source of wasteful health care spending in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations, but these administrative burdens vary across national systems. We executed a microlevel accounting of these...  View Details
      Keywords: Health Care Costs; Administrative Costs; Cost; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry
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      Richman, Barak D., Robert S. Kaplan, Japees Kohli, Dennis Purcell, Mahek Shah, Igna Bonfrer, Brian Golden, Rosemary Hannam, Will Mitchell, Daniel Cehic, Garry Crispin, and Kevin A. Schulman. "Billing and Insurance-Related Administrative Costs: A Cross-National Analysis." Health Affairs 41, no. 8 (August, 2022): 1098–1106.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Fairness via Explanation Quality: Evaluating Disparities in the Quality of Post hoc Explanations

      By: Jessica Dai, Sohini Upadhyay, Ulrich Aivodji, Stephen Bach and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As post hoc explanation methods are increasingly being leveraged to explain complex models in high-stakes settings, it becomes critical to ensure that the quality of the resulting explanations is consistently high across all subgroups of a population. For instance, it...  View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Mathematical Methods; Research; Analytics and Data Science
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      Dai, Jessica, Sohini Upadhyay, Ulrich Aivodji, Stephen Bach, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Fairness via Explanation Quality: Evaluating Disparities in the Quality of Post hoc Explanations." Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society (2022): 203–214.
      • August 2022
      • Article

      The Bulletproof Glass Effect: Unintended Consequences of Privacy Notices

      By: Aaron R. Brough, David A. Norton, Shannon L. Sciarappa and Leslie K. John
      Drawing from a content analysis of publicly traded companies’ privacy notices, a survey of managers, a field study, and five online experiments, this research investigates how consumers respond to privacy notices. A privacy notice, by placing legally enforceable limits...  View Details
      Keywords: Choice; Purchase Intent; Privacy; Privacy Notices; Warnings; Assurances; Information Disclosure; Trust; Consumer Behavior; Spending; Decisions; Information; Communication
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      Brough, Aaron R., David A. Norton, Shannon L. Sciarappa, and Leslie K. John. "The Bulletproof Glass Effect: Unintended Consequences of Privacy Notices." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 59, no. 4 (August 2022): 739–754.
      • July 2022
      • Supplement

      Solution for E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms (A): Estimating Sales

      By: Ayelet Israeli
      Keywords: Data Analysis; Data Analytics; CPG; Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG); Estimation; Online Channel; Retail Analytics; Retail; Retailing Industry; Data; Data Sharing; Bricks And Mortar; Ecommerce; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Sales; Goods and Commodities; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
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      Israeli, Ayelet. "Solution for E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms (A): Estimating Sales." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 523-704, July 2022.
      • July 2022
      • Supplement

      Solution for E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms (B): Optimizing Assortment for a New Retailer

      By: Ayelet Israeli
      Keywords: Data; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Data Sharing; CPG; Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG); Delivery Planning; Customer Lifetime Value; Online Channel; Retail; Retail Analytics; Retailing Industry; Ecommerce; Grocery; Optimization; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customer Value and Value Chain; Marketing Channels; E-commerce; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
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      Israeli, Ayelet. "Solution for E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms (B): Optimizing Assortment for a New Retailer." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 523-705, July 2022.
      • July 2022
      • Supplement

      Solution for E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms (C): Free Delivery Terms

      By: Ayelet Israeli
      Keywords: Data; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Data Sharing; CPG; Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG); Delivery Planning; Customer Lifetime Value; Online Channel; Retail; Retail Analytics; Retailing Industry; Ecommerce; Grocery; Optimization; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customer Value and Value Chain; Marketing Channels; E-commerce; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
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      Israeli, Ayelet. "Solution for E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms (C): Free Delivery Terms." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 523-706, July 2022.
      • July 2022
      • Teaching Note

      eGrocery and the Role of Data and E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms

      By: Ayelet Israeli
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 521-077.  View Details
      Keywords: Data; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Data Sharing; CPG; Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG); Delivery Planning; Customer Lifetime Value; Online Channel; Retail; Retail Analytics; Retailing Industry; Ecommerce; Grocery; Optimization; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customer Value and Value Chain; Marketing Channels; E-commerce; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
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      Israeli, Ayelet. "eGrocery and the Role of Data and E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 523-012, July 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register

      By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu
      We examine the consequences of monetary policy on racial disparities, focusing on the role of bank lending to firms through collateral and selection channels. Leveraging comprehensive loan-level data from the U.S. credit register (Y-14Q) of the Federal Reserve, we show...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission; Inequity; Credit Registry; Wealth; Collateral Channel; Selection; Racial Disparity; Racial Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Banks and Banking; Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banking Industry; United States
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      Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, and Camelia Minoiu. "Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-068, April 2022.
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