Publications
Publications
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All HBS Web
(157)
- Faculty Publications (17)
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- 2015
- Working Paper
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross...
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- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected...
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- 2014
- Article
The Growth and Limits of Arbitrage: Evidence from Short Interest
By: Samuel G. Hanson and Adi Sunderam
We develop a novel methodology to infer the amount of capital allocated to quantitative equity arbitrage strategies. Using this methodology, which exploits time-variation in the cross section of short interest, we document that the amount of capital devoted to value...
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- June 2012
- Article
Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on...
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- July 2011
- Article
The Private Equity Advantage: Leveraged Buyout Firms and Relationship Banking
By: Victoria Ivashina and Anna Kovner
This paper examines the impact of leveraged buyout firms' bank relationships on the terms of their syndicated loans. Using a sample of 1,590 loans financing private equity sponsored leveraged buyouts between 1993 and 2005, we find that bank relationships are an...
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- May 2008
- Article
Excess Comovement of Stock Returns: Evidence from Cross-sectional Variation in Nikkei 225 Weights
By: Robin Greenwood
In the presence of limits to arbitrage, cross-sectional variation in periodic investor demand should be related to the degree of comovement of returns. I exploit the unusual weighting system of the Nikkei 225 index in Japan to identify cross-sectional variation in...
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Keywords:
Stocks;
Investment;
Investment Return;
Market Transactions;
Weight;
Performance Expectations;
Behavior;
Japan
- Second Quarter 2008
- Article
How Does Investor Sentiment Affect the Cross-Section of Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Johnathan Wang and Jeffrey Wurgler
Broad waves of investor sentiment should have larger impacts on securities that are more difficult to value and to arbitrage. Consistent with this intuition, we find that when an index of investor sentiment takes low values, small, young, high volatility,...
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- May 2007
- Article
Corporate Financing Decisions When Investors Take the Path of Least Resistance
By: Malcolm Baker, Joshua Coval and Jeremy Stein
We explore the consequences for corporate financial policy that arise when investors exhibit inertial behavior. One implication of investor inertia is that, all else equal, a firm pursuing a strategy of equity-financed growth will prefer a stock-for-stock merger to...
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- August 2006
- Article
Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by...
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- 2005
- Other Unpublished Work
Corporate Financing Decisions When Investors Take the Path of Least Resistance
By: Malcolm Baker, Joshua Coval and Jeremy Stein
We explore the consequences for corporate financial policy that arise when investors exhibit inertial behavior. One implication of investor inertia is that, all else equal, a firm pursuing a strategy of equity-financed growth will prefer a stock-for-stock merger to...
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- 2005
- Working Paper
A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Excess Comovement of Stock Returns
By: Robin Greenwood
- 2005
- Working Paper
Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying...
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- August 2003
- Article
When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms
By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that...
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- October 2002
- Article
Differences of Opinion and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
By: Karl B. Diether, Christopher J. Malloy and Anna Scherbina
We provide evidence that stocks with higher dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts earn lower future returns than otherwise similar stocks. This effect is most pronounced in small stocks, and stocks that have performed poorly over the past year. Interpreting...
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- 2001
- Working Paper
When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms
By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that...
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- Other Unpublished Work
Cross Sectional Analysis of Phantom Products at Retail Stores
By: Zeynep Ton and Ananth Raman
- Forthcoming
- Article
The Cross Section of Bank Value
By: Mark Egan, Stefan Lewellen and Adi Sunderam
We study the determinants of value creation in U.S. commercial banks. We develop novel measures of individual banks' productivities at collecting deposits and making loans. We relate these measures to bank market values and find that deposit productivity is responsible...
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