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    • Faculty Publications  (45)

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    • All HBS Web  (1,665)
      • Faculty Publications  (45)

      Credit Supply Shocks Remove Credit Supply Shocks →

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      On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks
      Credit Supply Shocks, Network Effects, and the Real Economy
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      • March 2021
      • Article

      On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks

      By: Laura Alfaro, Manuel García-Santana and Enrique Moral-Benito
      We explore the real effects of bank-lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all Spanish firms with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset of all corporate loans from 2003 to 2013 to estimate...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Supply Shocks; Bank Lending Channel; Input-output Linkages; Output; Mechanisms; Trade Credits; Price Effects; Economics; Credit; System Shocks; Employment; Investment; Spain
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      Alfaro, Laura, Manuel García-Santana, and Enrique Moral-Benito. "On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks." Journal of Financial Economics 139, no. 3 (March 2021): 895–921.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Real Credit Cycles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
      We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S....  View Details
      Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      India's Food Supply Chain During the Pandemic

      By: Matt Lowe, V G Nadhanael and Benjamin N. Roth
      We document the impact of India’s COVID-19 lockdown on the food supply chain. Food arrivals in wholesale markets dropped by 62% in the three weeks following the lockdown and wholesale prices rose by 8%. Six weeks after the lockdown began, volumes and prices had fully...  View Details
      Keywords: Covid-19; Health Pandemics; Food; Supply Chain; India
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      Lowe, Matt, V G Nadhanael, and Benjamin N. Roth. "India's Food Supply Chain During the Pandemic." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-070, December 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Institutional Corporate Bond Demand

      By: Ishita Sen, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid and Varun Sharma
      We compile a rich dataset that links institutional investors' position level holdings with corporate bond characteristics and estimate demand elasticities with respect to critical sources of risk. Persistence in institutions' holdings provide us with an instrument to...  View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Bonds; Demand Systems; Insurance Companies; Mutual Funds; Liquidity; Bonds; Insurance; Investment Funds; Financial Liquidity
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      Sen, Ishita, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid, and Varun Sharma. "Institutional Corporate Bond Demand." Working Paper, December 2020.
      • November 2020
      • Teaching Note

      Unrest in Chile

      By: Vincent Pons, John Masko, Rafael Di Tella and William Mullins
      In 2020, Chileans would head to the ballot box to decide their country’s future. Many international observers credited Chile’s decades of neoliberal governance with turning the country into Latin America’s “Tiger,” a prosperous, diversified economy on its way to...  View Details
      Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Macroeconomics; Economy; Political Elections; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Equality and Inequality; System Shocks; Chile; Latin America
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      Pons, Vincent, John Masko, Rafael Di Tella, and William Mullins. "Unrest in Chile." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 721-016, November 2020.
      • Summer 2020
      • Article

      Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?: The COVID-19 Pandemic Should Be a Wake-up Call for Managers and Prompt Them to Consider Actions That Will Improve Their Resilience to Future Shocks

      By: Willy C. Shih
      The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the complex interdependencies of globalized supply chains. While these global multistage production networks had spread during a relatively benign environment of falling trade barriers and increasing interdependencies among countries,...  View Details
      Keywords: Supply Chains; Pandemic; Resilience; Supply Chain Management; Supply Chain; Global Range; Health Pandemics; Disruption; System Shocks; Crisis Management; Manufacturing Industry; United States; Asia; Europe; China
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      Shih, Willy C. "Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains? The COVID-19 Pandemic Should Be a Wake-up Call for Managers and Prompt Them to Consider Actions That Will Improve Their Resilience to Future Shocks." MIT Sloan Management Review 61, no. 4 (Summer 2020): 16–18.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms

      By: Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra and Marcela Eslava
      Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on...  View Details
      Keywords: Covid-19; Emerging Economies; Informality; Firm-size Distribution; Health Pandemics; Developing Countries and Economies; Economy; System Shocks; Latin America
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      Alfaro, Laura, Oscar Becerra, and Marcela Eslava. "EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-125, June 2020. (See application of the methodology to Latin American Countries in the IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere 2020, Chapter 3. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2020/10/13/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere.)
      • April 2020 (Revised July 2020)
      • Case

      Unrest in Chile

      By: Vincent Pons, William Mullins, John Masko, Annelena Lobb and Rafael Di Tella
      In 2020, Chileans would head to the ballot box to decide their country’s future. Many international observers credited Chile’s decades of neoliberal governance with turning the country into Latin America’s “Tiger,” a prosperous, diversified economy on its way to...  View Details
      Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Macroeconomics; Economy; Political Elections; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Equality and Inequality; System Shocks; Chile; Latin America
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      Pons, Vincent, William Mullins, John Masko, Annelena Lobb, and Rafael Di Tella. "Unrest in Chile." Harvard Business School Case 720-033, April 2020. (Revised July 2020.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Did Technology Contribute to the Housing Boom? Evidence from MERS

      By: Emily Williams and Stefan Lewellen
      We examine the effects of the Mortgage Electronic Registration System, or MERS, on mortgage origination volumes and foreclosure rates prior to the Great Recession. MERS was introduced in the late 1990s and significantly reduced the cost and time associated with...  View Details
      Keywords: Mortgages; Credit; Expansion; Technology; Outcome or Result
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      Williams, Emily, and Stefan Lewellen. "Did Technology Contribute to the Housing Boom? Evidence from MERS." Working Paper, February 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure

      By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
      Foreign currency derivative markets are among the largest in the world, yet their role in emerging markets in particular, is relatively understudied. We study firms' currency risk exposure and their hedging choices by employing a unique dataset covering the universe of...  View Details
      Keywords: Foreign Currency Hedging; Fx Derivatives; Cash Flow; Foreign Currency Debt; Currency Mismatch; Trade Credit
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      Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Calani, and Liliana Varela. "Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-096, March 2021.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Loan Types and the Bank Lending Channel

      By: Victoria Ivashina, Luc Laeven and Enrique Moral-Benito
      Using credit registry data for Spain and Peru, we document that four main types of commercial credit—asset-based loans, cash flow loans, trade finance and leasing—are easily identifiable and represent the bulk of corporate credit. We show that credit growth dynamics...  View Details
      Keywords: Bank Credit; Loan Types; Bank Lending Channel; Credit Registry; Banks and Banking; Credit; Financing and Loans
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      Ivashina, Victoria, Luc Laeven, and Enrique Moral-Benito. "Loan Types and the Bank Lending Channel." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27056, April 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam
      We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the...  View Details
      Keywords: Term Premium; Exchange Rate; Bonds; Currency; Theory
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, and Adi Sunderam. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27615, July 2020.
      • October 2019
      • Article

      Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads

      By: Emil N. Siriwardane
      Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data, I investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the CDS market. Seller capital shocks—measured as CDS portfolio margin payments—account for 12% of the time-series variation in weekly spread...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Risk; Derivatives; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Capital Markets; Credit; Financial Institutions
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      Siriwardane, Emil N. "Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads." Journal of Finance 74, no. 5 (October 2019): 2303–2347.
      • June 2019
      • Case

      The Shale Revolution: America's Energy Independence?

      By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Howaida Kamel
      The shale revolution has upended oil and gas markets for nearly a decade and has positioned the U.S. to become a net energy exporter by 2020. Technological improvements pushed productivity forward which has had positive overall positive affects for the U.S. economy....  View Details
      Keywords: Shale Oil; Shale Gas; Lng; Energy Policy; Drilling Technology; Energy; Trade; Economics; Macroeconomics; Policy; Energy Industry; Manufacturing Industry; United States; Middle East
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      Vietor, Richard H.K., and Howaida Kamel. "The Shale Revolution: America's Energy Independence?" Harvard Business School Case 719-076, June 2019.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Second Chance: Life Without Student Debt

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda and Vincent Yao
      Rising student debt is considered one of the creeping threats of our time. This paper examines the effect of student debt relief on individual credit and labor market outcomes. We exploit the plausibly random debt discharge due to the inability of National Collegiate,...  View Details
      Keywords: Student Debt; Private Student Loans; Legal Settlement; Mobility; Debt Collection; Debt Relief; Borrowing and Debt; Personal Finance; Outcome or Result; United States
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Ankit Kalda, and Vincent Yao. "Second Chance: Life Without Student Debt." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25810, May 2019. (Revise and Resubmit to The Journal of Finance.)
      • February 2019
      • Article

      The Ethnic Migrant Inventor Effect: Codification and Recombination of Knowledge Across Borders

      By: Prithwiraj Choudhury and Do Yoon Kim
      Ethnic migrant inventors may differ from locals in terms of the knowledge they bring to host firms. We study the role of first-generation ethnic migrant inventors in cross-border transfer of knowledge previously locked within the cultural context of their home regions....  View Details
      Keywords: Skilled Migration; Ethnic Migration; First-generation Migrant; Cultural Context; Knowledge Flows; Knowledge Reuse; Knowledge Recombination; Recombinant Creation; H1b Visas; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Knowledge Dissemination; Immigration; Ethnicity; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues
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      Choudhury, Prithwiraj, and Do Yoon Kim. "The Ethnic Migrant Inventor Effect: Codification and Recombination of Knowledge Across Borders." Strategic Management Journal 40, no. 2 (February 2019): 203–229.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions

      By: Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller
      We consider the identification of empirical models of supply and demand. As is well known, a supply-side instrument can resolve price endogeneity in demand estimation. We show that, under common assumptions, two other approaches also yield consistent estimates of the...  View Details
      Keywords: Demand Estimation; Identification; Endogeneity Bias; Covariance Restrictions; Ordinary Least Squares; Instrumental Variables
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      MacKay, Alexander, and Nathan H. Miller. "Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-051, October 2018. (Revised October 2019. Direct download.)
      • September 2018
      • Article

      Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Gordon Y. Liao
      We develop a model in which capital moves quickly within an asset class but slowly between asset classes. While most investors specialize in a single asset class, a handful of generalists can gradually reallocate capital across markets. Upon the arrival...  View Details
      Keywords: System Shocks; Asset Pricing
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Gordon Y. Liao. "Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets." Review of Financial Studies 31, no. 9 (September 2018): 3307–3343. (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • 2018
      • Book

      A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility

      By: Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Fragility; Economic Risk; Investor Behavior; Behavioral Economics; Financial Crisis; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Investment; Values and Beliefs; United States
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      Gennaioli, Nicola, and Andrei Shleifer. A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility. Princeton University Press, 2018.
      • August 2018
      • Case

      BlackBuck (A)

      By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
      The case presents the challenges of scaling an asset-heavy company (that relies on its operations). It highlights how decisions on the early team impact a company’s ability to scale, linkage between growth and cash flows, as well the organizational impact of high...  View Details
      Keywords: Founders; Entrepreneurship; Growth and Development Strategy; Service Delivery; Cash Flow; Growth Management; Truck Transportation; Online Technology; India
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      Ghosh, Shikhar, and Shweta Bagai. "BlackBuck (A)." Harvard Business School Case 819-031, August 2018.
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      On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks
      Credit Supply Shocks, Network Effects, and the Real Economy
      → Search All HBS Web
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