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    • Faculty Publications  (51)

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    • All HBS Web  (484)
      • Faculty Publications  (51)

      Credit Supply Shocks Remove Credit Supply Shocks →

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      • January 2023
      • Case

      EKI Energy Services: One Billion Carbon Credits

      By: George Serafeim
      Within nine months from the time of its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in April of 2021, EKI Energy Services (EKI) shares had increased by more than 8,000%. Equally explosive was the growth of the company’s revenues and Earnings Before Interest, Taxes and Depreciation...  View Details
      Keywords: Carbon Credits; Carbon Emissions; Growth; Business Analysis; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Valuation; Climate Change; Accounting; Valuation; Transition; Renewable Energy; Analysis; Product Positioning; India
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      Serafeim, George. "EKI Energy Services: One Billion Carbon Credits." Harvard Business School Case 123-060, January 2023.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register

      By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu
      We examine the consequences of monetary policy on racial disparities, focusing on the role of bank lending to firms through collateral and selection channels. Leveraging comprehensive loan-level data from the U.S. credit register (Y-14Q) of the Federal Reserve, we show...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission; Inequity; Credit Registry; Wealth; Collateral Channel; Selection; Racial Disparity; Racial Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Banks and Banking; Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banking Industry; United States
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      Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, and Camelia Minoiu. "Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-068, April 2022.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      India's Food Supply Chain during the Pandemic

      By: Matt Lowe, G.V. Nadhanael and Benjamin N. Roth
      We document the impact of India’s COVID-19 lockdown on the food supply chain. Food arrivals in wholesale markets dropped by 69% in the three weeks following the lockdown and wholesale prices rose by 8%. Six weeks after the lockdown began, volumes and prices had fully...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Supply Chain; Health Pandemics; Food; Policy; System Shocks; Food and Beverage Industry; India
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      Lowe, Matt, G.V. Nadhanael, and Benjamin N. Roth. "India's Food Supply Chain during the Pandemic." Art. 102162. Food Policy 105 (December 2021).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design

      By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao
      We examine how lenders design contracts when borrowers are exposed to volatile transitory or permanent cash flow shocks. We find that volatile transitory shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that can enable firms to...  View Details
      Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks
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      Ma, Le, Anywhere Sikochi, and Yajun Xiao. "Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-026, October 2021. (Revised April 2022.)
      • Article

      Large Banks and Small Firm Lending

      By: Vitaly Bord, Victoria Ivashina and Ryan D. Taliaferro
      We examine the long-lasting effects of the 2007 real estate price collapse on small business credit supply. Banks affected by the decline in real estate prices systematically contracted their credit to small firms. At the same time, regional and local banks, many of...  View Details
      Keywords: Small Firms; Credit Supply; Banking Competition; Small Business; Credit; Financial Crisis; Banks and Banking; Competition
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      Bord, Vitaly, Victoria Ivashina, and Ryan D. Taliaferro. "Large Banks and Small Firm Lending." Journal of Financial Intermediation 48 (October 2021).
      • September 2021
      • Article

      Did Technology Contribute to the Housing Boom? Evidence from MERS

      By: Stefan Lewellen and Emily Williams
      We examine the effects of the Mortgage Electronic Registration System, or MERS, on mortgage origination volumes and foreclosure rates prior to the Great Recession. MERS was introduced in the late 1990s and significantly reduced the cost and time associated with...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Supply; Housing Boom; Financial Innovation; Nonbank Lenders; Mortgages; Credit; Expansion; Information Technology; Outcome or Result
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      Lewellen, Stefan, and Emily Williams. "Did Technology Contribute to the Housing Boom? Evidence from MERS." Journal of Financial Economics 141, no. 3 (September 2021): 1244–1261.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov
      We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability and stockouts to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020-2022 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in stockouts in nearly all sectors early in the...  View Details
      Keywords: Prices; Stockouts; Inventories; Supply Disruptions; COVID-19 Pandemic; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Supply Chain; Disruption; Health Pandemics; Consumer Products Industry; United States; China; Canada; France; Germany; Japan; Spain
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Oleksiy Kryvtsov. "What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29209, September 2021.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure

      By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
      Foreign currency derivative markets are among the largest in the world, yet their role in emerging markets in particular, is relatively understudied. We study firms' currency risk exposure and their hedging choices by employing a unique dataset covering the universe of...  View Details
      Keywords: Foreign Currency Hedging; FX Derivatives; Foreign Currency Debt; Currency Mismatch; Trade Credit; Currency; Cash Flow; Emerging Markets
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      Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Calani, and Liliana Varela. "Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-096, March 2021.
      • March 2021
      • Article

      On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks

      By: Laura Alfaro, Manuel García-Santana and Enrique Moral-Benito
      We explore the real effects of bank-lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all Spanish firms with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset of all corporate loans from 2003 to 2013 to estimate...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Supply Shocks; Bank Lending Channel; Input-output Linkages; Output; Mechanisms; Trade Credits; Price Effects; Economics; Credit; System Shocks; Employment; Investment; Spain
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      Alfaro, Laura, Manuel García-Santana, and Enrique Moral-Benito. "On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks." Journal of Financial Economics 139, no. 3 (March 2021): 895–921.
      • November 2020 (Revised March 2023)
      • Teaching Note

      Unrest in Chile

      By: Vincent Pons, John Masko, Rafael Di Tella and William Mullins
      In 2020, Chileans would head to the ballot box to decide their country’s future. Many international observers credited Chile’s decades of neoliberal governance with turning the country into Latin America’s “Tiger,” a prosperous, diversified economy on its way to...  View Details
      Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Macroeconomics; Economy; Political Elections; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Equality and Inequality; System Shocks; Chile; Latin America
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      Pons, Vincent, John Masko, Rafael Di Tella, and William Mullins. "Unrest in Chile." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 721-016, November 2020. (Revised March 2023.)
      • Summer 2020
      • Article

      Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?: The COVID-19 Pandemic Should Be a Wake-up Call for Managers and Prompt Them to Consider Actions That Will Improve Their Resilience to Future Shocks

      By: Willy C. Shih
      The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the complex interdependencies of globalized supply chains. While these global multistage production networks had spread during a relatively benign environment of falling trade barriers and increasing interdependencies among countries,...  View Details
      Keywords: Supply Chains; Pandemic; Resilience; Supply Chain Management; Supply Chain; Global Range; Health Pandemics; Disruption; System Shocks; Crisis Management; Manufacturing Industry; United States; Asia; Europe; China
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      Shih, Willy C. "Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains? The COVID-19 Pandemic Should Be a Wake-up Call for Managers and Prompt Them to Consider Actions That Will Improve Their Resilience to Future Shocks." MIT Sloan Management Review 61, no. 4 (Summer 2020): 16–18.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms

      By: Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra and Marcela Eslava
      Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Emerging Economies; Informality; Firm-size Distribution; Health Pandemics; Developing Countries and Economies; Economy; System Shocks; Latin America
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      Alfaro, Laura, Oscar Becerra, and Marcela Eslava. "EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-125, June 2020. (See application of the methodology to Latin American Countries in the IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere 2020, Chapter 3. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2020/10/13/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship

      By: Michael Ewens, Ramana Nanda and Christopher Stanton
      We show theoretically that a critical determinant of the attractiveness of VC-backed entrepreneurship for high-earning potential founders is the expected time to develop a startup’s initial product. This is because founder-CEOs’ cash compensation increases...  View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Executive Compensation
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      Ewens, Michael, Ramana Nanda, and Christopher Stanton. "Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-119, May 2020. (Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Finance. Revised January 2023.)
      • April 2020 (Revised July 2020)
      • Case

      Unrest in Chile

      By: Vincent Pons, William Mullins, John Masko, Annelena Lobb and Rafael Di Tella
      In 2020, Chileans would head to the ballot box to decide their country’s future. Many international observers credited Chile’s decades of neoliberal governance with turning the country into Latin America’s “Tiger,” a prosperous, diversified economy on its way to...  View Details
      Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Macroeconomics; Economy; Political Elections; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Equality and Inequality; System Shocks; Chile; Latin America
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      Pons, Vincent, William Mullins, John Masko, Annelena Lobb, and Rafael Di Tella. "Unrest in Chile." Harvard Business School Case 720-033, April 2020. (Revised July 2020.)
      • October 2019
      • Article

      Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads

      By: Emil N. Siriwardane
      Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data, I investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the CDS market. Seller capital shocks—measured as CDS portfolio margin payments—account for 12% of the time-series variation in weekly spread...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Risk; Derivatives; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Capital Markets; Credit; Financial Institutions
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      Siriwardane, Emil N. "Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads." Journal of Finance 74, no. 5 (October 2019): 2303–2347.
      • October 2019
      • Article

      Partial Deregulation and Competition: Effects on Risky Mortgage Origination

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Sanket Korgaonkar
      We exploit the OCC's preemption of national banks from state laws against predatory lending as a quasi-experiment to study the effect of deregulation and its interaction with competition on the supply of complex mortgages. Following the preemption ruling, national...  View Details
      Keywords: Great Recession; Subprime; Complex Mortgages; Credit Supply; Household Debt; Preemption Rule; Competition; Mortgages; Government Legislation; Credit; Financial Crisis
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, and Sanket Korgaonkar. "Partial Deregulation and Competition: Effects on Risky Mortgage Origination." Management Science 65, no. 10 (October 2019).
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Second Chance: Life with Less Student Debt

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda and Vincent Yao
      Rising student debt is considered one of the creeping threats of our time. This paper examines the effect of student debt relief on individual credit and labor market outcomes. We exploit the plausibly random debt discharge due to the inability of National Collegiate,...  View Details
      Keywords: Student Debt; Private Student Loans; Legal Settlement; Mobility; Debt Collection; Debt Relief; Borrowing and Debt; Personal Finance; Outcome or Result; United States
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Ankit Kalda, and Vincent Yao. "Second Chance: Life with Less Student Debt." Working Paper, May 2019. (Forthcoming in The Journal of Finance.)
      • February 2019
      • Article

      The Ethnic Migrant Inventor Effect: Codification and Recombination of Knowledge Across Borders

      By: Prithwiraj Choudhury and Do Yoon Kim
      Ethnic migrant inventors may differ from locals in terms of the knowledge they bring to host firms. We study the role of first-generation ethnic migrant inventors in cross-border transfer of knowledge previously locked within the cultural context of their home regions....  View Details
      Keywords: Skilled Migration; Ethnic Migration; First-generation Migrant; Cultural Context; Knowledge Flows; Knowledge Reuse; Knowledge Recombination; Recombinant Creation; H1B Visas; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Knowledge Dissemination; Immigration; Ethnicity; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues
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      Choudhury, Prithwiraj, and Do Yoon Kim. "The Ethnic Migrant Inventor Effect: Codification and Recombination of Knowledge Across Borders." Strategic Management Journal 40, no. 2 (February 2019): 203–229.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions

      By: Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller
      We consider the identification of empirical models of supply and demand with imperfect competition. We show that a covariance restriction on unobserved demand and cost shocks resolves endogeneity and identifies the price parameter. We demonstrate how to employ this...  View Details
      Keywords: Demand Estimation; Identification; Endogeneity Bias; Covariance Restrictions; Ordinary Least Squares; Instrumental Variables
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      MacKay, Alexander, and Nathan H. Miller. "Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-051, October 2018. (Revised February 2023. Direct download.)
      • 2018
      • Book

      A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility

      By: Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Fragility; Economic Risk; Investor Behavior; Behavioral Economics; Financial Crisis; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Investment; Values and Beliefs; United States
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      Gennaioli, Nicola, and Andrei Shleifer. A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility. Princeton University Press, 2018.
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