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Publications

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      • Faculty Publications  (118)

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      • 2023
      • Article

      Probabilistically Robust Recourse: Navigating the Trade-offs between Costs and Robustness in Algorithmic Recourse

      By: Martin Pawelczyk, Teresa Datta, Johannes van-den-Heuvel, Gjergji Kasneci and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As machine learning models are increasingly being employed to make consequential decisions in real-world settings, it becomes critical to ensure that individuals who are adversely impacted (e.g., loan denied) by the predictions of these models are provided with a means...  View Details
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      Pawelczyk, Martin, Teresa Datta, Johannes van-den-Heuvel, Gjergji Kasneci, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Probabilistically Robust Recourse: Navigating the Trade-offs between Costs and Robustness in Algorithmic Recourse." International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) (2023).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Pay-As-You-Go Insurance: Experimental Evidence on Consumer Demand and Behavior

      By: Ray Kluender
      Pay-as-you-go contracts reduce minimum purchase requirements which may increase market participation. We randomize the introduction and price(s) of a novel pay-as-you-go contract to the California auto insurance market where 17 percent of drivers are uninsured. The...  View Details
      Keywords: Contracts; Market Participation; Consumer Behavior; Price; Insurance Industry
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      Kluender, Ray. "Pay-As-You-Go Insurance: Experimental Evidence on Consumer Demand and Behavior." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-030, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Issuance and Design of Sustainability-linked Loans

      By: Maria Loumioti and George Serafeim
      Sustainability-linked loans (i.e., syndicated loans for which pricing is linked to a sustainability performance indicator) have rapidly evolved into a significant private debt product. We find that sustainability-linked lending has been available mostly to borrowers...  View Details
      Keywords: Sustainability; Sustainability Management; Credit Products; Loan Contracts; Loans; Corporate Finance; Credit Risk; Environment; ESG; ESG Ratings; Climate Change; Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Risk and Uncertainty; Credit
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      Loumioti, Maria, and George Serafeim. "The Issuance and Design of Sustainability-linked Loans." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-027, November 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Do Job Seekers Value Diversity Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment and Human Capital Disclosures

      By: Jung Ho Choi, Joseph Pacelli, Kristina M. Rennekamp and Sorabh Tomar
      We examine how information about the diversity of a potential employer’s workforce affects individuals’ job-seeking behavior. We embed a field experiment in job recommendation emails sent from a leading career advice agency in the U.S. The experimental treatment...  View Details
      Keywords: Diversity; Job Search; Human Capital Disclosure; Field Experiment; Recruitment
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      Choi, Jung Ho, Joseph Pacelli, Kristina M. Rennekamp, and Sorabh Tomar. "Do Job Seekers Value Diversity Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment and Human Capital Disclosures." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-019, August 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register

      By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu
      We examine the consequences of monetary policy on racial disparities, focusing on the role of bank lending to firms through collateral and selection channels. Leveraging comprehensive loan-level data from the U.S. credit register (Y-14Q) of the Federal Reserve, we show...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission; Inequity; Credit Registry; Wealth; Collateral Channel; Selection; Racial Disparity; Racial Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Banks and Banking; Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banking Industry; United States
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      Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, and Camelia Minoiu. "Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-068, April 2022.
      • March 2022 (Revised June 2022)
      • Case

      El Salvador: Launching Bitcoin as Legal Tender

      By: Laura Alfaro, Carla Larangeira and Ruth Costas
      In June 2021, Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, surprised the world with the announcement that the country would adopt bitcoin as legal tender, becoming the first nation to do so. Bitcoin was mostly used for trading and had one of the most volatile track records...  View Details
      Keywords: Bitcoin; Cryptocurrency; Currency; Financial Strategy; Economic Growth; Governance; Macroeconomics; Assets; Latin America; El Salvador
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      Alfaro, Laura, Carla Larangeira, and Ruth Costas. "El Salvador: Launching Bitcoin as Legal Tender." Harvard Business School Case 322-055, March 2022. (Revised June 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Credit Rating Agency Market in Africa

      By: Saveshen Pillay and Anywhere Sikochi
      In this paper, we present the credit rating agency market on the continent of Africa as a potential research setting for accounting-related research. Largely unexplored in prior literature, Africa-based rating agencies provide access to information about a broad range...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Rating; Credit Rating Agencies; Regulation; Conflict Of Interest; Credit; Capital; Africa
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      Pillay, Saveshen, and Anywhere Sikochi. "The Credit Rating Agency Market in Africa." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-074, June 2022. (Journal of Financial Reporting, proposal accepted-in-principle.)
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Contractual Restrictions and Debt Traps

      By: Ernest Liu and Benjamin N. Roth
      Microcredit and other forms of small-scale finance have failed to catalyze entrepreneurship in developing countries. In these credit markets, borrowers and lenders often bargain over not only the interest rate but also implicit restrictions on types of investment. We...  View Details
      Keywords: Microfinance; Entrepreneurship; Developing Countries and Economies; Financing and Loans
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      Liu, Ernest, and Benjamin N. Roth. "Contractual Restrictions and Debt Traps." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 3 (March 2022): 1141–1182.
      • February 2022
      • Article

      Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century

      By: Ufuk Akcigit, John Grigsby, Tom Nicholas and Stefanie Stantcheva
      This paper studies the effect of corporate and personal taxes on innovation in the United States over the twentieth century. We build a panel of the universe of inventors who patent since 1920, and a historical state-level corporate tax database with corporate tax...  View Details
      Keywords: Innovation; Income Taxes; Corporate Taxation; Firms; Inventors; State Taxation; Business Taxation; R&D Tax Credits; Taxation; Innovation and Invention; History; United States
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      Akcigit, Ufuk, John Grigsby, Tom Nicholas, and Stefanie Stantcheva. "Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century." Quarterly Journal of Economics 137, no. 1 (February 2022): 329–385.
      • January 2022
      • Article

      Why Is Corporate Virtue in the Eye of the Beholder? The Case of ESG Ratings

      By: Dane Christensen, George Serafeim and Anywhere Sikochi
      Despite the rising use of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ratings, there is substantial disagreement across rating agencies regarding what rating to give to individual firms. As what drives this disagreement is unclear, we examine whether a firm’s ESG...  View Details
      Keywords: ESG Ratings; Rating Agency Disagreement; ESG Disclosure; Corporate Social Responsibility; Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Disclosure
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      Christensen, Dane, George Serafeim, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Why Is Corporate Virtue in the Eye of the Beholder? The Case of ESG Ratings." Accounting Review 97, no. 1 (January 2022): 147–175.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts

      By: Elisabeth Kempf and Margarita Tsoutsoura
      Partisan perception affects the actions of professionals in the financial sector. Using a novel dataset linking credit rating analysts to party affiliations from voter records, we show that analysts who are not affiliated with the U.S. president’s party downward-adjust...  View Details
      Keywords: Political Affiliation; Credit Rating Agencies; Political Partisanship; Political Elections; Perception; Credit
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      Kempf, Elisabeth, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. "Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts." Journal of Finance 76, no. 6 (December 2021): 2805–2856.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design

      By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao
      We examine how lenders design contracts when borrowers are exposed to volatile transitory or permanent cash flow shocks. We find that volatile transitory shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that can enable firms to...  View Details
      Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks
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      Ma, Le, Anywhere Sikochi, and Yajun Xiao. "Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-026, October 2021. (Revised April 2022.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara and Don Carmichael
      We exploit anonymized administrative data provided by a major fintech platform to investigate whether using alternative data to assess borrowers’ creditworthiness results in broader credit access. Comparing actual outcomes of the fintech platform’s model to...  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech Lending; Alternative Data; Machine Learning; Algorithm Bias; Finance; Information Technology; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Credit
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara, and Don Carmichael. "Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-024, October 2021.
      • September 2021
      • Article

      Did Technology Contribute to the Housing Boom? Evidence from MERS

      By: Stefan Lewellen and Emily Williams
      We examine the effects of the Mortgage Electronic Registration System, or MERS, on mortgage origination volumes and foreclosure rates prior to the Great Recession. MERS was introduced in the late 1990s and significantly reduced the cost and time associated with...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Supply; Housing Boom; Financial Innovation; Nonbank Lenders; Mortgages; Credit; Expansion; Information Technology; Outcome or Result
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      Lewellen, Stefan, and Emily Williams. "Did Technology Contribute to the Housing Boom? Evidence from MERS." Journal of Financial Economics 141, no. 3 (September 2021): 1244–1261.
      • Article

      The Economic Consequences of Bankruptcy Reform

      By: Tal Gross, Ray Kluender, Feng Liu, Matthew J. Notowidigdo and Jialan Wang
      A more generous consumer bankruptcy system provides greater insurance against financial risks but may also raise the cost of credit. We study this trade-off using the 2005 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA), which increased the costs of...  View Details
      Keywords: Bankruptcy; Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention And Consumer Protection Act; Borrowing and Debt; Credit
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      Gross, Tal, Ray Kluender, Feng Liu, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, and Jialan Wang. "The Economic Consequences of Bankruptcy Reform." American Economic Review 111, no. 7 (July 2021): 2309–2341.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Time Dependency, Data Flow, and Competitive Advantage

      By: Ehsan Valavi, Joel Hestness, Marco Iansiti, Newsha Ardalani, Feng Zhu and Karim R. Lakhani
      Data is fundamental to machine learning-based products and services and is considered strategic due to its externalities for businesses, governments, non-profits, and more generally for society. It is renowned that the value of organizations (businesses, government...  View Details
      Keywords: Economics Of AI; Value Of Data; Perishability; Time Dependency; Flow Of Data; Data Strategy; Analytics and Data Science; Value; Strategy; Competitive Advantage
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      Valavi, Ehsan, Joel Hestness, Marco Iansiti, Newsha Ardalani, Feng Zhu, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Time Dependency, Data Flow, and Competitive Advantage." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-099, March 2021.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure

      By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
      Foreign currency derivative markets are among the largest in the world, yet their role in emerging markets in particular, is relatively understudied. We study firms' currency risk exposure and their hedging choices by employing a unique dataset covering the universe of...  View Details
      Keywords: Foreign Currency Hedging; FX Derivatives; Foreign Currency Debt; Currency Mismatch; Trade Credit; Currency; Cash Flow; Emerging Markets
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      Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Calani, and Liliana Varela. "Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-096, March 2021.
      • February 2021
      • Article

      A Dynamic Theory of Multiple Borrowing

      By: Daniel Green and Ernest Liu
      Multiple borrowing—a borrower obtains overlapping loans from multiple lenders—is a common phenomenon in many credit markets. We build a highly tractable, dynamic model of multiple borrowing and show that, because overlapping creditors may impose default externalities...  View Details
      Keywords: Commitment; Multiple Borrowing; Common Agency; Misallocation; Microfinance; Investment; Mathematical Methods
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      Green, Daniel, and Ernest Liu. "A Dynamic Theory of Multiple Borrowing." Journal of Financial Economics 139, no. 2 (February 2021): 389–404.
      • January 2021 (Revised May 2021)
      • Case

      Delta Air Lines: Navigating the COVID-19 Storm

      By: Ted Berk and Ryan Flamerich
      This case examines Delta Air Lines’ response as demand for its services plummeted in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a focus on the company’s funding needs and capital structure. Following a series of initial actions, the company’s cash “burn” had reduced from...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; Financial Condition; Capital Structure; Crisis Management; Risk Management; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Air Transportation Industry
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      Berk, Ted, and Ryan Flamerich. "Delta Air Lines: Navigating the COVID-19 Storm." Harvard Business School Case 221-063, January 2021. (Revised May 2021.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Accounting for Product Impact in the Consumer Finance Industry

      By: George Serafeim and Katie Trinh
      We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor credit card providers within the consumer finance industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact estimates...  View Details
      Keywords: Product Innovation; Impact; Impact Investing; Impact Measurement; ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG Ratings; Social Corporate Responsibility; Corporate Social Responsibility; Social Impact; Consumer Finance; Financial Services; Financial Inclusion; Product; Product Design; Product Positioning; Society; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Personal Finance; Credit Cards; Financial Services Industry
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      Serafeim, George, and Katie Trinh. "Accounting for Product Impact in the Consumer Finance Industry." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-061, November 2020. (Revised December 2020.)
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