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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (144)
    • Faculty Publications  (19)

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    • All HBS Web  (144)
      • Faculty Publications  (19)

      Credit Cycles Remove Credit Cycles →

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      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Nonbank Lending and Credit Cyclicality

      By: Quirin Fleckenstein, Manasa Gopal, German Gutierrez and Sebastian Hillenbrand
      We document three facts about nonbank lending in the syndicated loan market. First, nonbank lending is more than twice as cyclical as bank lending. Second, declines in nonbank lending explain most of the declines in syndicated lending during the Great Recession and...  View Details
      Keywords: Nonbank Lending; Credit Cycles; CLO; Mutual Funds; Leveraged Lending; COVID-19; Great Migration; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financing and Loans; Business Cycles
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      Fleckenstein, Quirin, Manasa Gopal, German Gutierrez, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Nonbank Lending and Credit Cyclicality." Working Paper, June 2021.
      • February 2021
      • Case

      Lidya: Bringing Nigerian FinTech Innovation to Global Small and Medium Enterprises

      By: Lauren Cohen and Spencer C.N. Hagist
      Lidya CEO Tunde Kehinde must size up options for the expansion of his novel lending practices that drastically reduce the credit cycle in his developing Nigeria, and determine if expansion into Eastern Europe will prove successful or disastrous.  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech; Economics; Entrepreneurship; Financing and Loans; Strategy; Expansion; Nigeria
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Spencer C.N. Hagist. "Lidya: Bringing Nigerian FinTech Innovation to Global Small and Medium Enterprises." Harvard Business School Case 221-083, February 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Real Credit Cycles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
      We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S....  View Details
      Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
      • June 2020
      • Article

      U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles

      By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
      Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,...  View Details
      Keywords: Global Business Cycle; Monetary Policy; Reaching For Yield; Money; Policy; Credit; Emerging Markets
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      Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles." Journal of Monetary Economics 112 (June 2020): 57–76.
      • 2019
      • Book

      Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream: How Technology Is Transforming Lending and Shaping a New Era of Small Business Opportunity

      By: Karen G. Mills
      Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream describes the needs of small businesses for capital and demonstrates how technology—novel data sources, artificial intelligence, machine learning—will transform the small business lending market. This market has been...  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech; Big Data; Data; Technology; Artificial Intelligence; Great Recession; Regulation; Innovation; Banks; Lending; Loans; Access To Capital; American Dream; Community Banking; Small Business Administration; Entrepreneur; Government; Public Policy; API; Policy Making; Small Business; Financing and Loans; Technological Innovation; Financial Crisis; Banks and Banking; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; United States
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      Mills, Karen G. Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream: How Technology Is Transforming Lending and Shaping a New Era of Small Business Opportunity. Palgrave Macmillan, 2019.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Reflexivity in Credit Markets

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin
      Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes, and that market outcomes in turn affect investors' beliefs. We develop a behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring such a two-way feedback loop. In our model, investors form beliefs...  View Details
      Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin. "Reflexivity in Credit Markets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25747, April 2019.
      • February 2018
      • Article

      Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles." Journal of Finance 73, no. 1 (February 2018): 199–227.
      • February 2018
      • Article

      Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Cycles; Sovereign Debt; Financial Repression; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Europe
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Review of Finance 22, no. 1 (February 2018): 83–115.
      • Working Paper

      Covenant-Light Contracts and Creditor Coordination

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      In 2015, 70% of newly issued leveraged loans had weaker enforcement features, called covenant-light or "cov-lite"; this is nearly a three-time increase in cov-lite issuance compared to a previous peak in 2007. We evaluate whether this development can be attributed to...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Cycles; Loan Contracts; Debt Covenants; Contracts; Financing and Loans; Credit; Borrowing and Debt
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Covenant-Light Contracts and Creditor Coordination." Swedish House of Finance Research Paper, No. 16-09, March 2016.
      • 2014
      • Working Paper

      Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Cycles; Sovereign Debt; Financial Repression; Sovereign Finance; Greece
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Working Paper, April 2014.
      • March 2014
      • Article

      Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence." Journal of Monetary Economics 62 (March 2014): 76–93.
      • 2011
      • Chapter

      The Economics of Housing Finance Reform

      By: David S. Scharfstein and Adi Sunderam
      This paper analyzes the two leading types of proposals for reform of the housing finance system: (i) broad-based, explicit, priced government guarantees of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and (ii) privatization. Both proposals have drawbacks. Properly-priced...  View Details
      Keywords: Economics; Housing; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Government and Politics
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      Scharfstein, David S., and Adi Sunderam. "The Economics of Housing Finance Reform." In The Future of Housing Finance: Restructuring the U.S. Residential Mortgage Market, edited by Martin Neil Baily. Brookings Institution Press, 2011.
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time-series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-107, June 2010. (Revised August 2011.)
      • May 2010
      • Article

      Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles

      By: Victoria Ivashina and David Scharfstein
      Cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. This cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers' collateral, which affect firms' ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant (Ben S....  View Details
      Keywords: Business Cycles; Capital; Credit; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; System Shocks; Financial Services Industry
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      Ivashina, Victoria, and David Scharfstein. "Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 100, no. 2 (May 2010): 57–61.
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      Fixing Market Failures or Fixing Elections? Agricultural Credit in India

      By: Shawn A. Cole
      This paper integrates theories of political budget cycles with theories of tactical electoral redistribution to test for political capture in a novel way. Studying banks in India, I find that government-owned bank lending tracks the electoral cycle, with agricultural...  View Details
      Keywords: Agribusiness; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Political Elections; State Ownership; Banking Industry; India
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      Cole, Shawn A. "Fixing Market Failures or Fixing Elections? Agricultural Credit in India." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-001, July 2008.
      • August 2006
      • Article

      Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default

      By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann
      In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Risk; Bootstrap; Mathematical Methods; Credit; Risk Management
      Citation
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      Hanson, Samuel G., and Til Schuermann. "Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default." Journal of Banking & Finance 30, no. 8 (August 2006).
      • March 1997 (Revised January 1999)
      • Case

      SureCut Shears, Inc.

      By: W. Carl Kester
      A bank loan officer must determine whether to waive convenants and extend terms on a line of credit granted to SureCut Shears. At issue is whether the inability of SureCut to pay down its line of credit is due to a temporary cyclical downturn or other long-term...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Cycles; Finance; Performance; Problems and Challenges
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      Kester, W. Carl. "SureCut Shears, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 297-013, March 1997. (Revised January 1999.)
      • November 1994 (Revised February 1996)
      • Case

      Toy World, Inc.

      By: W. Carl Kester
      A shift from seasonal to level production of toys will change the seasonal cycle of Toy World's working capital needs and necessitate new bank credit arrangements. A rewritten version of an earlier case.  View Details
      Keywords: Working Capital; Business Cycles; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Financial Statements
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      Kester, W. Carl. "Toy World, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 295-073, November 1994. (Revised February 1996.)
      • Research Summary

      Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream: How Technology Is Transforming Lending and Shaping a New Era of Small Business Opportunity

      By: Karen Mills
      Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream describes the needs of small businesses for capital and demonstrates how technology—novel data sources, artificial intelligence, machine learning—will transform the small business lending market. This market has been...  View Details
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