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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (142)
      • Faculty Publications  (31)

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      When Less Is More: Using Short-term Signals to Overcome Systematic Bias in Long-run Targeting

      By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
      Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response. Doing so requires firms to identify differences in customer sensitivity, which they often obtain using uplift modeling (i.e., heterogeneous treatment effect...  View Details
      Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "When Less Is More: Using Short-term Signals to Overcome Systematic Bias in Long-run Targeting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-023, October 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Article

      Revisiting Extraversion and Leadership Emergence: A Social Network Churn Perspective

      By: Blaine Landis, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Dan J. Wang and Robert W. Krause
      One of the classic relationships in personality psychology is that extraversion is associated with emerging as an informal leader. However, recent findings raise questions about the longevity of extraverted individuals as emergent leaders. Here, we adopt a social...  View Details
      Keywords: Extraversion; Social Networks; Emergent Leadership; Leadership Development; Personal Characteristics; Perception
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      Landis, Blaine, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Dan J. Wang, and Robert W. Krause. "Revisiting Extraversion and Leadership Emergence: A Social Network Churn Perspective." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 123, no. 4 (October 2022): 811–829.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Customer Churn and Intangible Capital

      By: Scott R. Baker, Brian Baugh and Marco Sammon
      Intangible capital is a crucial and growing piece of firms’ capital structure and helps to explain long run trends in concentration and markups. We develop new firm level metrics regarding a key component of intangible capital—customer churn—using a class of household...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Base; Transaction Data; Customer Churn; Intangible Capital; Capital; Capital Structure; Customers; Corporate Finance
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      Baker, Scott R., Brian Baugh, and Marco Sammon. "Customer Churn and Intangible Capital." Working Paper, October 2022.
      • June 23, 2021
      • Article

      Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story

      By: Eva Ascarza
      When it comes to churn prevention, marketers traditionally start by identifying which customers are most likely to churn, and then running A/B tests to determine whether a proposed retention intervention will be effective at retaining those high-risk customers. While...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Retention; Churn; Targeting; Market Research; Marketing; Investment Return; Customers; Retention; Research
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      Ascarza, Eva. "Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (June 23, 2021).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Canary Categories

      By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
      Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “Canary Categories” for which the reverse is true. The more customers purchase in these categories, the less likely these customers are to return...  View Details
      Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Retail Industry; United States
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      Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Canary Categories." Working Paper, August 2022.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times

      By: Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
      What is the optimal form of firm organization during “bad times”? We present a model of delegation within the firm to show that the effect is ambiguous. The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information...  View Details
      Keywords: Decentralization; Growth; Turbulence; Great Recession; Organizational Design; System Shocks; Economic Growth; Performance
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      Aghion, Philippe, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 13, no. 1 (January 2021): 133–169.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes

      By: Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon and Sinan Aral
      Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we...  View Details
      Keywords: Targeted Marketing; Optimization; Churn Management; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Policy; Learning; Outcome or Result
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      Yang, Jeremy, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon, and Sinan Aral. "Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes." Working Paper, October 2020.
      • September–October 2020
      • Article

      Managing Churn to Maximize Profits

      By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
      Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability or their responsiveness to a...  View Details
      Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit
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      Lemmens, Aurelie, and Sunil Gupta. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits." Marketing Science 39, no. 5 (September–October 2020): 956–973.
      • March 2018
      • Article

      In Pursuit of Enhanced Customer Retention Management: Review, Key Issues, and Future Directions

      By: Eva Ascarza, Scott A. Neslin, Oded Netzer, Zachery Anderson, Peter S. Fader, Sunil Gupta, Bruce Hardie, Aurelie Lemmens, Barak Libai, David T. Neal, Foster Provost and Rom Schrift
      In today’s turbulent business environment, customer retention presents a significant challenge for many service companies. Academics have generated a large body of research that addresses part of that challenge—with a particular focus on predicting customer churn....  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Retention; Churn; Customer Relationship Management; Measurement and Metrics
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      Ascarza, Eva, Scott A. Neslin, Oded Netzer, Zachery Anderson, Peter S. Fader, Sunil Gupta, Bruce Hardie, Aurelie Lemmens, Barak Libai, David T. Neal, Foster Provost, and Rom Schrift. "In Pursuit of Enhanced Customer Retention Management: Review, Key Issues, and Future Directions." Special Issue on 2016 Choice Symposium. Customer Needs and Solutions 5, nos. 1-2 (March 2018): 65–81.
      • February 2018
      • Article

      Retention Futility: Targeting High-Risk Customers Might Be Ineffective.

      By: Eva Ascarza
      Companies in a variety of sectors are increasingly managing customer churn proactively, generally by detecting customers at the highest risk of churning and targeting retention efforts towards them. While there is a vast literature on developing churn prediction models...  View Details
      Keywords: Retention/churn; Proactive Churn Management; Field Experiments; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Machine Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Risk Management
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      Ascarza, Eva. "Retention Futility: Targeting High-Risk Customers Might Be Ineffective." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 55, no. 1 (February 2018): 80–98.
      • January–February 2018
      • Article

      Some Customers Would Rather Leave Without Saying Goodbye

      By: Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Bruce G.S. Hardie
      We investigate the increasingly common business setting in which companies face the possibility of both observed and unobserved customer attrition (i.e., “overt” and “silent” churn) in the same pool of customers. This is the case for many online-based services where...  View Details
      Keywords: Churn; Retention; Attrition; Customer Base Analysis; Hidden Markov Models; Latent Variable Models; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior
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      Ascarza, Eva, Oded Netzer, and Bruce G.S. Hardie. "Some Customers Would Rather Leave Without Saying Goodbye." Marketing Science 37, no. 1 (January–February 2018): 54–77.
      • Other Article

      Exploring the Relationship Between Architecture Coupling and Software Vulnerabilities

      By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Daniel J. Sturtevant and Lee Doolan
      Employing software metrics, such as size and complexity, for predicting defects has been given a lot of attention over the years and proven very useful. However, the few studies looking at software architecture and vulnerabilities are limited in scope and findings. We...  View Details
      Keywords: Security Vulnerabilities; Software Architecture; Metrics; Software; Complexity; Measurement and Metrics
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      Lagerstrom, Robert, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Daniel J. Sturtevant, and Lee Doolan. "Exploring the Relationship Between Architecture Coupling and Software Vulnerabilities." Proceedings of the International Symposium on Engineering Secure Software and Systems (ESSoS) 9th (2017): 53–69. (Part of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, ISSN 0302-9743.)
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Exploring the Relationship between Architecture Coupling and Software Vulnerabilities: A Google Chrome Case

      By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Dan Sturtevant and Lee Doolan
      Employing software metrics, such as size and complexity, for predicting defects has been given a lot of attention over the years and has proven very useful. However, the few studies looking at software architecture and vulnerabilities are limited in scope and findings....  View Details
      Keywords: Software; Architecture; Coupling; Vulnerabilities; Applications and Software; Complexity; Measurement and Metrics
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      Lagerstrom, Robert, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Dan Sturtevant, and Lee Doolan. "Exploring the Relationship between Architecture Coupling and Software Vulnerabilities: A Google Chrome Case." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-078, February 2017.
      • January 2017 (Revised October 2021)
      • Case

      Delivering the Goods at Shippo

      By: Jeffrey J. Bussgang, Jeffrey F. Rayport and Olivia Hull
      Laura Behrens Wu, CEO of software start-up Shippo, prepares her pitch for a Series A funding round following a successful seed round. Customer adoption of Shippo’s e-commerce dashboard application, which allows small and medium retailers to compare delivery rates...  View Details
      Keywords: Application Program Interface; API; API Strategy; Customer Cohorts; Churn; Retention; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Business Startups; Strategy; Transition; Customer Focus and Relationships; Technological Innovation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Valuation; Shipping Industry; Technology Industry; Retail Industry; San Francisco; California; United States
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      Bussgang, Jeffrey J., Jeffrey F. Rayport, and Olivia Hull. "Delivering the Goods at Shippo." Harvard Business School Case 817-065, January 2017. (Revised October 2021.)
      • October 2016 (Revised October 2020)
      • Case

      Essent: From a State-Owned Utility to a Commercial Company

      By: Ananth Raman and Elena Corsi
      Patrick Lammers, Chief Commercial Officer (CCO) for the Dutch energy company Essent NV, once a state-owned company, was pleased with the progress Essent’s consumer (“B2C”) business had made: Earnings Before Income Tax (EBIT) for B2C had gone from a loss of €18 million...  View Details
      Keywords: Lean Management; Operation Management; Service Management; Commercialization; Operations; Management; Energy; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Service Operations; Performance; Energy Industry; Europe
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      Raman, Ananth, and Elena Corsi. "Essent: From a State-Owned Utility to a Commercial Company." Harvard Business School Case 617-026, October 2016. (Revised October 2020.)
      • June 2016
      • Teaching Note

      HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI

      By: Jill Avery, Asis Martinez Jerez and Thomas Steenburgh
      HubSpot, a web marketing startup selling inbound marketing software to small- and medium-sized businesses, is under pressure from its venture capital partners to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. The B2B SaaS company is in the...  View Details
      Keywords: CRM; Customer Acquisition; Customer Retention; Churn Management; SaaS Business Models; Customer Lifetime Value; Venture Capital; Startup; Software; Monitoring And Control; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Marketing Strategy; Accounting; Technology Industry; United States
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      Avery, Jill, Asis Martinez Jerez, and Thomas Steenburgh. "HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 116-051, June 2016.
      • May 2016 (Revised June 2017)
      • Case

      Sales Compensation Vignettes

      By: Frank V. Cespedes
      This case study is comprised of two vignettes about startup companies considering whether and how to change their sales compensation plans. ElMenus.com is a restaurant app venture in Egypt seeking to lower customer churn while confronting new competition. BigBelly is a...  View Details
      Keywords: Compensation; Sales; Strategy
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      Cespedes, Frank V. "Sales Compensation Vignettes." Harvard Business School Case 816-092, May 2016. (Revised June 2017.)
      • Article

      The Perils of Proactive Churn Prevention Using Plan Recommendations: Evidence from a Field Experiment

      By: Eva Ascarza, Raghuram Iyengar and Martin Schleicher
      Facing the issue of increasing customer churn, many service firms have begun recommending pricing plans to their customers. One reason behind this type of retention campaign is that customers who subscribe to a plan suitable for them should be less likely to churn...  View Details
      Keywords: Churn/retention; Field Experiment; Pricing; Tariff/plan Choice; Targeting; Customer Relationship Management; Price; Performance Effectiveness
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      Ascarza, Eva, Raghuram Iyengar, and Martin Schleicher. "The Perils of Proactive Churn Prevention Using Plan Recommendations: Evidence from a Field Experiment." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 53, no. 1 (February 2016): 46–60.
      • Winter 2014
      • Article

      Does Service Bundling Reduce Churn?

      By: Jeff Prince and Shane Greenstein
      We examine whether bundling in telecommunications services reduces churn using a series of large, independent cross sections of household decisions. To identify the effect of bundling, we construct a pseudo-panel dataset and utilize a linear, dynamic panel-data model,...  View Details
      Keywords: Communication Technology; Customer Satisfaction; Product Marketing; Telecommunications Industry
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      Prince, Jeff, and Shane Greenstein. "Does Service Bundling Reduce Churn?" Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 23, no. 4 (Winter 2014): 839–875.
      • 2014
      • Other Teaching and Training Material

      Marketing Reading: Customer Management

      By: Sunil Gupta
      This Reading on customer management sheds light on how companies should evaluate and manage their customers in order to grow profitably. Customer management allows marketing managers to inform investment decisions by drilling down into each customer's profitability or...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Acquisition; Customer Churn; Customer Profitability Analysis; Customer Retention; Firm Value; Organizational Structure
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      Gupta, Sunil. "Marketing Reading: Customer Management." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Boston: Harvard Business Publishing 8162, 2014.
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