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- Faculty Publications (31)
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- 2022
- Working Paper
When Less Is More: Using Short-term Signals to Overcome Systematic Bias in Long-run Targeting
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response. Doing so requires firms to identify differences in customer sensitivity, which they often obtain using uplift modeling (i.e., heterogeneous treatment effect...
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- October 2022
- Article
Revisiting Extraversion and Leadership Emergence: A Social Network Churn Perspective
By: Blaine Landis, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Dan J. Wang and Robert W. Krause
One of the classic relationships in personality psychology is that extraversion is associated with emerging as an informal leader. However, recent findings raise questions about the longevity of extraverted individuals as emergent leaders. Here, we adopt a social...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Customer Churn and Intangible Capital
By: Scott R. Baker, Brian Baugh and Marco Sammon
Intangible capital is a crucial and growing piece of firms’ capital structure and helps to explain long run trends in concentration and markups. We develop new firm level metrics regarding a key component of intangible capital—customer churn—using a class of household...
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- June 23, 2021
- Article
Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story
By: Eva Ascarza
When it comes to churn prevention, marketers traditionally start by identifying which customers are most likely to churn, and then running A/B tests to determine whether a proposed retention intervention will be effective at retaining those high-risk customers. While...
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Keywords:
Customer Retention;
Churn;
Targeting;
Market Research;
Marketing;
Investment Return;
Customers;
Retention;
Research
- 2022
- Working Paper
Canary Categories
By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “Canary Categories” for which the reverse is true. The more customers purchase in these categories, the less likely these customers are to return...
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- January 2021
- Article
Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times
By: Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
What is the optimal form of firm organization during “bad times”? We present a model of delegation within the firm to show that the effect is ambiguous. The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes
By: Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon and Sinan Aral
Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we...
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- September–October 2020
- Article
Managing Churn to Maximize Profits
By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability or their responsiveness to a...
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- March 2018
- Article
In Pursuit of Enhanced Customer Retention Management: Review, Key Issues, and Future Directions
By: Eva Ascarza, Scott A. Neslin, Oded Netzer, Zachery Anderson, Peter S. Fader, Sunil Gupta, Bruce Hardie, Aurelie Lemmens, Barak Libai, David T. Neal, Foster Provost and Rom Schrift
In today’s turbulent business environment, customer retention presents a significant challenge for many service companies. Academics have generated a large body of research that addresses part of that challenge—with a particular focus on predicting customer churn....
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- February 2018
- Article
Retention Futility: Targeting High-Risk Customers Might Be Ineffective.
By: Eva Ascarza
Companies in a variety of sectors are increasingly managing customer churn proactively, generally by detecting customers at the highest risk of churning and targeting retention efforts towards them. While there is a vast literature on developing churn prediction models...
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- January–February 2018
- Article
Some Customers Would Rather Leave Without Saying Goodbye
By: Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Bruce G.S. Hardie
We investigate the increasingly common business setting in which companies face the possibility of both observed and unobserved customer attrition (i.e., “overt” and “silent” churn) in the same pool of customers. This is the case for many online-based services where...
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- Other Article
Exploring the Relationship Between Architecture Coupling and Software Vulnerabilities
By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Daniel J. Sturtevant and Lee Doolan
Employing software metrics, such as size and complexity, for predicting defects has been given a lot of attention over the years and proven very useful. However, the few studies looking at software architecture and vulnerabilities are limited in scope and findings. We...
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- 2017
- Working Paper
Exploring the Relationship between Architecture Coupling and Software Vulnerabilities: A Google Chrome Case
By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Dan Sturtevant and Lee Doolan
Employing software metrics, such as size and complexity, for predicting defects has been given a lot of attention over the years and has proven very useful. However, the few studies looking at software architecture and vulnerabilities are limited in scope and findings....
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- January 2017 (Revised October 2021)
- Case
Delivering the Goods at Shippo
By: Jeffrey J. Bussgang, Jeffrey F. Rayport and Olivia Hull
Laura Behrens Wu, CEO of software start-up Shippo, prepares her pitch for a Series A funding round following a successful seed round. Customer adoption of Shippo’s e-commerce dashboard application, which allows small and medium retailers to compare delivery rates...
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Keywords:
Application Program Interface;
API;
API Strategy;
Customer Cohorts;
Churn;
Retention;
Entrepreneurship;
Venture Capital;
Business Startups;
Strategy;
Transition;
Customer Focus and Relationships;
Technological Innovation;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Valuation;
Shipping Industry;
Technology Industry;
Retail Industry;
San Francisco;
California;
United States
- October 2016 (Revised October 2020)
- Case
Essent: From a State-Owned Utility to a Commercial Company
By: Ananth Raman and Elena Corsi
Patrick Lammers, Chief Commercial Officer (CCO) for the Dutch energy company Essent NV, once a state-owned company, was pleased with the progress Essent’s consumer (“B2C”) business had made: Earnings Before Income Tax (EBIT) for B2C had gone from a loss of €18 million...
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- June 2016
- Teaching Note
HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI
By: Jill Avery, Asis Martinez Jerez and Thomas Steenburgh
HubSpot, a web marketing startup selling inbound marketing software to small- and medium-sized businesses, is under pressure from its venture capital partners to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. The B2B SaaS company is in the...
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- May 2016 (Revised June 2017)
- Case
Sales Compensation Vignettes
This case study is comprised of two vignettes about startup companies considering whether and how to change their sales compensation plans. ElMenus.com is a restaurant app venture in Egypt seeking to lower customer churn while confronting new competition. BigBelly is a...
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- Article
The Perils of Proactive Churn Prevention Using Plan Recommendations: Evidence from a Field Experiment
By: Eva Ascarza, Raghuram Iyengar and Martin Schleicher
Facing the issue of increasing customer churn, many service firms have begun recommending pricing plans to their customers. One reason behind this type of retention campaign is that customers who subscribe to a plan suitable for them should be less likely to churn...
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- Winter 2014
- Article
Does Service Bundling Reduce Churn?
By: Jeff Prince and Shane Greenstein
We examine whether bundling in telecommunications services reduces churn using a series of large, independent cross sections of household decisions. To identify the effect of bundling, we construct a pseudo-panel dataset and utilize a linear, dynamic panel-data model,...
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- 2014
- Other Teaching and Training Material
Marketing Reading: Customer Management
By: Sunil Gupta
This Reading on customer management sheds light on how companies should evaluate and manage their customers in order to grow profitably. Customer management allows marketing managers to inform investment decisions by drilling down into each customer's profitability or...
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