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  • May 2023
  • Article

Political Ideology and International Capital Allocation
By: Elisabeth Kempf, Mancy Luo, Larissa Schäfer and Margarita Tsoutsoura
Does investors' political ideology shape international capital allocation? We provide evidence from two settings—syndicated corporate loans and equity mutual funds—to show ideological alignment with foreign governments affects the cross-border capital allocation by...  View Details
Keywords: Capital Flows; Syndicated Loans; Mutual Funds; Partisanship; Polarization; Elections; Political Ideology; Banks and Banking; Institutional Investing; Behavioral Finance; Decision Choices and Conditions
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  • April 2023
  • Article

The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences
By: Armin Falk, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, David B. Huffman and Uwe Sunde
Incentivized choice experiments are a key approach to measuring preferences in economics but are also costly. Survey measures are a low-cost alternative but can suffer from additional forms of measurement error due to their hypothetical nature. This paper seeks to...  View Details
Keywords: Survey Validation; Experiment; Preference Measurement; Surveys; Economics; Behavior; Measurement and Metrics
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Complexity and Time
By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,...  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives
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  • March–April 2023
  • Article

Market Segmentation Trees
By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market...  View Details
Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Senior Team Emotional Dynamics and Strategic Decision Making at a Platform Transition
By: Timo O. Vuori and Michael L. Tushman
Based on an inductive case study, we develop an emotional-temporal process model of an incumbent’s strategic decision making at a platform transition. We describe the senior team’s emotional response to this transition and the impact of these emotions on their...  View Details
Keywords: Emotions; Decision Choices and Conditions; Transition; Digital Platforms
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  • February 2023
  • Supplement

Shanty Real Estate: Teaching Note Supplement
By: Michael Luca
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Leadership and the Value of Persistence
By: James J. Anton, Alan Jaske and Dennis Yao
Consider a leader’s decision whether to persist with an unsuccessful R&D project or to terminate the project in favor of a new project with an uncertain value. How does that decision affect the effort exerted by the manager assigned to the project? To study this...  View Details
Keywords: Persistence; Project Evaluation; R＆D Project Management; Projects; Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Stories, Statistics and Memory
By: Thomas Graeber, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann
For most decisions, we rely on information encountered over the course of days, months or years. We consume this information in various forms, including abstract summaries of multiple data points – statistics – and contextualized anecdotes about individual instances...  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Information Types; Media; Cognition and Thinking
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  • 2022
  • Article

Which Explanation Should I Choose? A Function Approximation Perspective to Characterizing Post hoc Explanations
By: Tessa Han, Suraj Srinivas and Himabindu Lakkaraju
A critical problem in the field of post hoc explainability is the lack of a common foundational goal among methods. For example, some methods are motivated by function approximation, some by game theoretic notions, and some by obtaining clean visualizations. This...  View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Decision Choices and Conditions; Analytics and Data Science
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  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 2
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
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  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 3
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
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  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 1
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
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  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 2
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Market Timing; Measurement and Metrics
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  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 3
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
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  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for Homebuyer
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Market Timing; Measurement and Metrics
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  • October 2022
  • Exercise

Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for iBuyer
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough....  View Details
Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing; Decision Making
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  • October 2022
  • Article

A Structural Model of Organizational Buying for Business-to-Business Markets: Innovation Adoption with Share-of-Wallet Contracts
By: Navid Mojir and K. Sudhir
The paper develops the first structural model of organizational buying to study innovation diffusion in a B2B market. Our model is particularly applicable for routinized exchange relationships, whereby centralized buyers periodically evaluate and choose contracts,...  View Details
Keywords: Organizational Buying Behavior; Healthcare Marketing; B2B Markets; B2B Innovation; New Product Diffusion; New Product Adoption; Organizations; Acquisition; Behavior; Health Care and Treatment; Marketing; Innovation and Invention
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  • Article

Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds
By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang
We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of...  View Details
Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Demand and Consumers; Investment
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about COVID
By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? A 2020 U.S. survey of beliefs about the lethality of COVID reveals that the elderly underestimate, and the young overestimate, their own risks, and that people with more health...  View Details
Keywords: Expectations; Memory; COVID-19 Pandemic; Perception; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Values and Beliefs
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  • Article

The Value of Intermediation in the Stock Market
By: Marco Di Maggio, Mark Egan and Francesco Franzoni
We estimate a structural model of broker choice to quantitatively decompose the value that institutional investors attach to broker services. Studying over 300 million institutional equity trades, we find that investors are sensitive to both explicit and implicit...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Intermediation; Institutional Investors; Research Analysts; Broker Networks; Equity Trading; Institutional Investing
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