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Publications

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      • Faculty Publications  (399)

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Small Campaign Donors

      By: Laurent Bouton, Julia Cagé, Edgard Dewitte and Vincent Pons
      In this paper, we study the characteristics and behavior of small donors, and compare them to those of large donors. We first build a novel dataset including all the 340 million individual contributions reported to the U.S. Federal Election Commission between 2005 and...  View Details
      Keywords: Campaign Finance; Campaign Contributions; Small Donations; ActBlue; WinRed; TV Advertising; Political Elections; Finance; Demographics; Advertising; Analysis
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      Bouton, Laurent, Julia Cagé, Edgard Dewitte, and Vincent Pons. "Small Campaign Donors." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30050, May 2022.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the U.S.

      By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
      We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a U.S.-wide voter-level panel, 2008–18, we examine voters who relocate...  View Details
      Keywords: Voting; Behavior; Geographic Location; Personal Characteristics; Situation or Environment; United States
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      Cantoni, Enrico, and Vincent Pons. "Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the U.S." American Economic Review 112, no. 4 (April 2022): 1226–1272.
      • Article

      Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)

      By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli

      An inherent risk of algorithmic personalization is disproportionate targeting of individuals from certain groups (or demographic characteristics such as gender or race), even when the decision maker does not intend to discriminate based on those “protected”...  View Details

      Keywords: Algorithm Bias; Personalization; Targeting; Generalized Random Forests (GRF); Discrimination; Customization and Personalization; Decision Making; Fairness; Mathematical Methods
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      Ascarza, Eva, and Ayelet Israeli. "Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)." e2115126119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 11 (March 8, 2022).
      • Article

      Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach

      By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...  View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Fundamental Valuation; Implied Cost Of Capital; International Equity Markets; Present Value; Investment Return; Equity; Markets; Global Range
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      Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Accounting Review 97, no. 2 (March 2022): 107–133.
      • 7 Mar 2022
      • Other Presentation

      How to Let Go of Perfectionism

      By: Amy C. Edmondson
      Harvard Business School professor Amy Edmondson joins Ofosu Jones-Quartey and Leah Santa Cruz to discuss why so many of us have perfectionistic tendencies. She explains how giving ourselves permission to fail can actually lead to more success.  View Details
      Keywords: Psychological Safety; Personal Characteristics
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      "How to Let Go of Perfectionism." Well Balanced (podcast), March 7, 2022. (Season 1, Episode 18.)
      • Working Paper

      Electoral Turnovers

      By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
      In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and...  View Details
      Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement
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      Marx, Benjamin, Vincent Pons, and Vincent Rollet. "Electoral Turnovers." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29766, February 2022.
      • February 2022
      • Article

      OMG! My Boss Just Friended Me: How Evaluations of Colleagues' Disclosure, Gender, and Rank Shape Personal/Professional Boundary Blurring Online

      By: Nancy Rothbard, Lakshmi Ramarajan, Ariane Ollier-Malaterre and Serenity Lee
      We propose and test a relational boundary blurring framework, examining how employees’ evaluations of colleagues’ characteristics drive their decisions to connect with colleagues as friends online. We use a multi-method approach across four studies to investigate how...  View Details
      Keywords: Self-disclosure; Relationships; Employees; Internet and the Web; Boundaries
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      Rothbard, Nancy, Lakshmi Ramarajan, Ariane Ollier-Malaterre, and Serenity Lee. "OMG! My Boss Just Friended Me: How Evaluations of Colleagues' Disclosure, Gender, and Rank Shape Personal/Professional Boundary Blurring Online." Academy of Management Journal 65, no. 1 (February 2022): 35–65.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Feeling Seen: Leader Eye Gaze Promotes Psychological Safety, Participation, and Voice

      By: Nicole Abi-Esber, Alison Wood Brooks and Ethan Burris
      Psychological safety is a hallmark of effective team functioning. Although prior work shows that characteristics of the leader influence employee judgments of psychological safety (and subsequent decisions to speak up), we know very little about “the specific behaviors...  View Details
      Keywords: Eye Gaze; Psychological Safety; Voice; Participation; Nonverbal Behavior; Verbal Behavior; Ostracism; Conversation; Groups; Groups and Teams; Social Psychology; Safety; Leadership; Behavior
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      Abi-Esber, Nicole, Alison Wood Brooks, and Ethan Burris. "Feeling Seen: Leader Eye Gaze Promotes Psychological Safety, Participation, and Voice." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-048, January 2022.
      • January 2022
      • Article

      Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting

      By: Erik Stafford
      The contributions of asset selection and incremental leverage to buyout investment performance are more important than typically assumed or estimated to be. Buyout funds select small firms with distinct value characteristics. Public equities with these characteristics...  View Details
      Keywords: Replicating Portfolio; Private Equity; Investment Portfolio
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      Stafford, Erik. "Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 1 (January 2022): 299–342.
      • January 2022
      • Article

      Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?

      By: Shai Benjamin Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli, Davide Malacrino and Timothy McQuade
      We examine the characteristics of the individuals who become entrepreneurs when local opportunities arise. We identify local demand shocks by linking fluctuations in global commodity prices to municipality level agricultural endowments in Brazil. We find that the firm...  View Details
      Keywords: Firms; Entrepreneurs; Demand Shocks; Entrepreneurship; Personal Characteristics; Demographics; Opportunities; Brazil
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      Bernstein, Shai Benjamin, Emanuele Colonnelli, Davide Malacrino, and Timothy McQuade. "Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?" Journal of Financial Economics 143, no. 1 (January 2022): 107–130.
      • December 2021
      • Case

      Grace Capital

      By: Sara Fleiss, Robin Greenwood, Eren Kuzucu and Denise Han
      In March 2020, the global pandemic was delivering a dose of volatility to the U.S. economy. Catherine Faddis, the CIO of Grace Capital, a Boston-based long-only equity manager, analyzed movements in her portfolio while eyeing previously shelved opportunities to invest...  View Details
      Keywords: Preferred Stock; COVID-19 Pandemic; Economy; Health Pandemics; Volatility; Entrepreneurship; Finance; Investment; Strategy; Decision Making; Investment Portfolio; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Fleiss, Sara, Robin Greenwood, Eren Kuzucu, and Denise Han. "Grace Capital." Harvard Business School Case 222-052, December 2021.
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Directors' Perceptions of Board Effectiveness and Internal Operations

      By: J. Yo-Jud Cheng, Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Rajesh Vijayaraghavan
      We contribute to the growing literature on the effectiveness of corporate boards by examining the effect of two insights that have been largely unexplored in prior studies that use public data. First, since boards’ responsibilities are wide-ranging, more holistic...  View Details
      Keywords: Boards Of Directors; Corporate Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Performance Effectiveness; Perception
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      Cheng, J. Yo-Jud, Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy, and Rajesh Vijayaraghavan. "Directors' Perceptions of Board Effectiveness and Internal Operations." Management Science 67, no. 10 (October 2021): 6399–6420.
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Fintech Borrowers: Lax Screening or Cream-Skimming?

      By: Marco Di Maggio and Vincent Yao
      Personal credit is the fastest-growing segment of the consumer credit market, mainly driven by fintech lenders' staggering expansion. We study this market using a unique individual-level data, which covers most of the top fintech and traditional lenders, and provides...  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech; Lending; Consumer Finance; Credit History; Self-control; Present Bias; Financing and Loans; Personal Finance; Credit; Behavior
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      Di Maggio, Marco, and Vincent Yao. "Fintech Borrowers: Lax Screening or Cream-Skimming?" Review of Financial Studies 34, no. 10 (October 2021): 4565–4618. (LEAD ARTICLE and EDITOR'S CHOICE.)
      • September–October 2021
      • Article

      Frontiers: Can an AI Algorithm Mitigate Racial Economic Inequality? An Analysis in the Context of Airbnb

      By: Shunyuan Zhang, Nitin Mehta, Param Singh and Kannan Srinivasan
      We study the effect of Airbnb’s smart-pricing algorithm on the racial disparity in the daily revenue earned by Airbnb hosts. Our empirical strategy exploits Airbnb’s introduction of the algorithm and its voluntary adoption by hosts as a quasi-natural experiment. Among...  View Details
      Keywords: Smart Pricing; Pricing Algorithm; Machine Bias; Discrimination; Racial Disparity; Social Inequality; Airbnb Revenue; Revenue; Race; Equality and Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Price; Mathematical Methods; Accommodations Industry
      Citation
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      Zhang, Shunyuan, Nitin Mehta, Param Singh, and Kannan Srinivasan. "Frontiers: Can an AI Algorithm Mitigate Racial Economic Inequality? An Analysis in the Context of Airbnb." Marketing Science 40, no. 5 (September–October 2021): 813–820.
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

      By: Nicolas Padilla and Eva Ascarza
      The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Programs; Consumer Behavior; Analysis
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      Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 58, no. 5 (October 2021): 981–1006.
      • September 2021
      • Article

      Trials and Terminations: Learning from Competitors' R&D Failures

      By: Joshua L. Krieger
      I analyze project continuation decisions where firms may resolve uncertainty through news about competitors' research and development (R&D) failures, as well as through their own results. I examine the trade-offs and interactions between product-market competition and...  View Details
      Keywords: Research and Development; Projects; Failure; Decision Making; Learning
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      Krieger, Joshua L. "Trials and Terminations: Learning from Competitors' R&D Failures." Management Science 67, no. 9 (September 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Racial Disparities in the Paycheck Protection Program

      By: Sergey Chernenko and David S. Scharfstein
      Using a large sample of Florida restaurants, we document significant racial disparities in borrowing through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and investigate the causes of these disparities. Black-owned restaurants are 25% less likely to receive PPP loans....  View Details
      Keywords: Discrimination; Paycheck Protection Program; Economic Injury Disaster Loans; Bank Lending; Nonbank Lending; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Prejudice and Bias; Race
      Citation
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      Chernenko, Sergey, and David S. Scharfstein. "Racial Disparities in the Paycheck Protection Program." SSRN Working Paper Series, August 2021. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29748, February 2022.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Treatment and Selection Effects of Formal Workplace Mentorship Programs

      By: Jason Sandvik, Richard Saouma, Nathan Seegert and Christopher Stanton
      While formal mentorship programs are ubiquitous, less is known about who gains from receiving mentorship. In this paper, we report the outcome of a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) carried out in a US-based inbound sales call center where one branch of the experiment...  View Details
      Keywords: Mentoring; Mentorship Programs; Randomized Controlled Trial; Employees; Relationships; Programs; Performance
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      Sandvik, Jason, Richard Saouma, Nathan Seegert, and Christopher Stanton. "Treatment and Selection Effects of Formal Workplace Mentorship Programs." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29148, August 2021.
      • June 23, 2021
      • Article

      Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story

      By: Eva Ascarza
      When it comes to churn prevention, marketers traditionally start by identifying which customers are most likely to churn, and then running A/B tests to determine whether a proposed retention intervention will be effective at retaining those high-risk customers. While...  View Details
      Keywords: Customer Retention; Churn; Targeting; Market Research; Marketing; Investment Return; Customers; Retention; Research
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      Ascarza, Eva. "Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (June 23, 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Who Closed the Schools?

      By: Joshua D. Coval
      This paper examines the differences in characteristics between U.S. public schools that opted for virtual instruction because of COVID-19, and schools that did not. Much of the variation can be explained by measures of the degree to which districts favored teachers...  View Details
      Keywords: Public Education; COVID-19; Virtual Learning; Education; Health Pandemics; Teaching; Internet and the Web; Policy; Outcome or Result; United States
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      Coval, Joshua D. "Who Closed the Schools?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-127, June 2021.
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