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      • Faculty Publications  (277)

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      • September 2022 (Revised January 2023)
      • Case

      Bear to Bull: An Analyst’s Journey with Netflix

      By: Aiyesha Dey, Joseph Pacelli, Jennifer G. Lawson and Tom Quinn
      Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said “hell freezing over” was more likely than him upgrading the “sell” rating he had maintained on movie and television streaming giant Netflix since 2011, despite meteoric subscriber and share price growth. In 2022, however,...  View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Asset Pricing; Cash Flow; Investment; Stocks; Equity; Analysis; Attitudes; Financial Services Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; United States
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      Dey, Aiyesha, Joseph Pacelli, Jennifer G. Lawson, and Tom Quinn. "Bear to Bull: An Analyst’s Journey with Netflix." Harvard Business School Case 123-001, September 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Loan Types and the Bank Lending Channel

      By: Victoria Ivashina, Luc Laeven and Enrique Moral-Benito
      Using credit-registry data for Spain and Peru, we document that four main types of commercial credit—asset-based loans, cash flow loans, trade finance and leasing—are easily identifiable and represent the bulk of corporate credit. We show that credit growth dynamics...  View Details
      Keywords: Bank Credit; Loan Types; Bank Lending Channel; Credit Registry; Banks and Banking; Credit; Financing and Loans
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      Ivashina, Victoria, Luc Laeven, and Enrique Moral-Benito. "Loan Types and the Bank Lending Channel." Journal of Monetary Economics 126 (March 2022): 171–187.
      • February 2022 (Revised June 2022)
      • Case

      Resident 2020

      By: Jeffrey F. Rayport and Thomas O. Jones
      Launched in 2016, Resident was a leading player in the direct-to-consumer bed-in-a-box mattress market, where it was one of at least 175 venture-backed companies competing in the space. By late 2020, it had realized over $500 million in revenue, profitability in the...  View Details
      Keywords: Digital Marketing; Business Growth and Maturation; Operations; Entrepreneurship; Competitive Strategy; Initial Public Offering; Decisions; Marketing Strategy; Cash Flow; Demand and Consumers
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      Rayport, Jeffrey F., and Thomas O. Jones. "Resident 2020." Harvard Business School Case 822-114, February 2022. (Revised June 2022.)
      • February 2022 (Revised November 2022)
      • Case

      Nuritas

      By: Mitchell Weiss, Satish Tadikonda, Vincent Marie Dessain and Emer Moloney
      Nora Khaldi had built a technology “to unlock the power of nature” in the service of extending human lifespan and improving health, and now in April 2020 was debating telling her Board of Directors she wanted to put on ice some of her discoveries. Nuritas, the company...  View Details
      Keywords: Cash Burn; Cash Flow Analysis; Pharmaceutical Companies; Founder; Artificial Intelligence; AI; Entrepreneurship; Health Testing and Trials; Health Care and Treatment; Decision Making; Market Entry and Exit; AI and Machine Learning; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Weiss, Mitchell, Satish Tadikonda, Vincent Marie Dessain, and Emer Moloney. "Nuritas." Harvard Business School Case 822-080, February 2022. (Revised November 2022.)
      • January 2022
      • Technical Note

      Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics

      By: Samuel Antill and Ted Berk
      This technical note provides an overview of key analytical approaches that are useful in assessing the appropriateness of a firm’s capital structure and funding plan. This note introduces basic quantitative tools and metrics that are commonly used as inputs to this...  View Details
      Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Business Plan; Forecasting and Prediction; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Structure; Cash Flow; Financial Liquidity; Financial Management; Financing and Loans
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      Antill, Samuel, and Ted Berk. "Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics." Harvard Business School Technical Note 222-061, January 2022.
      • January 2022
      • Background Note

      Residual Income Valuation Model

      By: Charles C.Y. Wang and Albert Shin
      This note explains the residual income valuation model (RIM), how it relates to "traditional" valuation models, the intuition behind its use, and empirical research related to its value relevance. RIM is theoretically equivalent to the dividend discount model and the...  View Details
      Keywords: Residual Income Valuation; Valuation; Research; Theory; Measurement and Metrics; Performance; Financial Management; Business Strategy
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      Wang, Charles C.Y., and Albert Shin. "Residual Income Valuation Model." Harvard Business School Background Note 122-070, January 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations

      By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
      We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and...  View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Stocks
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      McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, January 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated

      By: Jesse M. Fried, Paul Ma and Charles C.Y. Wang
      The stock market generates less wealth than it appears. We show that total shareholder return (TSR), the standard measure of stock investor performance, substantially exaggerates returns earned by these investors in aggregate, and thus by most investors. The main...  View Details
      Keywords: All-shareholder Returns; Capital Flows; Dividend Reinvestment; Equity Premium; Total Shareholder Returns; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Timing
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      Fried, Jesse M., Paul Ma, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-036, November 2021.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design

      By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao
      We examine how lenders design contracts when borrowers are exposed to volatile transitory or permanent cash flow shocks. We find that volatile transitory shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that can enable firms to...  View Details
      Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks
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      Ma, Le, Anywhere Sikochi, and Yajun Xiao. "Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-026, October 2021. (Revised April 2022.)
      • 2021
      • Chapter

      Building Small Business Utopia: How Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Can Increase Small Business Success

      By: Karen G. Mills and Annie Dang
      Small business lending has remained unchanged for decades, laden with frictions and barriers that prevent many small businesses from accessing the capital they need to succeed. Financial technology, or “fintech,” promises to change this trajectory. In 2010, new fintech...  View Details
      Keywords: Big Data; Fintech; Artificial Intelligence; Small Business; Financing and Loans; Capital; Success; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science
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      Mills, Karen G., and Annie Dang. "Building Small Business Utopia: How Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Can Increase Small Business Success." In Big Data in Small Business, edited by Carsten Lund Pedersen, Adam Lindgreen, Thomas Ritter, and Torsten Ringberg. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2021.
      • May–June 2021
      • Article

      Getting Up to Speed in Your Sales Efforts

      By: Frank V. Cespedes and Zoran Latinovic
      In a study before the pandemic, Pricewaterhouse Coopers found that companies had made little progress in the previous decade in speeding up their cash-conversion cycle, as the cash crunch generated by the pandemic painfully demonstrated. In most firms, sales velocity...  View Details
      Keywords: Sales Velocity; Opportunity Selection; Deal Size; Win Rate; Sales; Management; Cash Flow
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      Cespedes, Frank V., and Zoran Latinovic. "Getting Up to Speed in Your Sales Efforts." European Business Review (May–June 2021): 68–71.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency

      By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
      Foreign currency use can be a source of risk associated with currency mismatches, which firms can hedge using FX derivatives. This paper uncovers five novel facts about firms’ use of foreign currency (FX) derivatives employing a unique dataset covering the universe of...  View Details
      Keywords: FX Derivatives; Hedging; Currency; Cash Flow; Emerging Markets; Chile
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      Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Calani, and Liliana Varela. "Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28910, June 2021. (Revised July 2022.)
      • May 2021
      • Case

      André Hoffmann: Beyond Philanthropy

      By: Lauren Cohen, Hao Gao, Jiawei Ye and Spencer C.N. Hagist
      André Hoffmann is a leader of one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies. His exceptional tenure in philanthropy over the past several decades, including being president of the WWF and the vice-president of the MAVA Foundation, has allowed him access to a far...  View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Restructuring; Social Entrepreneurship; Values and Beliefs; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Cash Flow; Macroeconomics; Ethics; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Switzerland; United States; Japan
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      Cohen, Lauren, Hao Gao, Jiawei Ye, and Spencer C.N. Hagist. "André Hoffmann: Beyond Philanthropy." Harvard Business School Case 221-093, May 2021.
      • March 2021 (Revised July 2021)
      • Case

      Resident

      By: Jeffrey F. Rayport and Thomas O. Jones
      Launched in 2016, Resident was a leading player in the direct-to-consumer bed-in-a-box mattress market, where it was one of at least 175 venture-backed companies competing in the space. By late 2020, it had realized over $500 million in revenue, profitability in the...  View Details
      Keywords: Digital Marketing; Business Growth and Maturation; Operations; Entrepreneurship; Competitive Strategy; Initial Public Offering; Decisions; Marketing Strategy; Cash Flow; Demand and Consumers
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      Rayport, Jeffrey F., and Thomas O. Jones. "Resident." Harvard Business School Case 821-090, March 2021. (Revised July 2021.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure

      By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
      Foreign currency derivative markets are among the largest in the world, yet their role in emerging markets in particular, is relatively understudied. We study firms' currency risk exposure and their hedging choices by employing a unique dataset covering the universe of...  View Details
      Keywords: Foreign Currency Hedging; FX Derivatives; Foreign Currency Debt; Currency Mismatch; Trade Credit; Currency; Cash Flow; Emerging Markets
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      Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Calani, and Liliana Varela. "Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-096, March 2021.
      • January 2021
      • Supplement

      Bespoken Spirits: Disrupting Distilling

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher
      On October 7, 2020, Bespoken Spirits publicly announced it had received $2.6 million of seed funding for its “sustainable maturation process,” a process that could produce award-winning whiskeys in just days rather than years using a novel technology and data science. ...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Ventures; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Disruption; Entrepreneurship; Environmental Sustainability; Cash Flow; Disruptive Innovation; Innovation Strategy; Brands and Branding; Business Model; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Service Industry; United States; California
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Daniel Fisher. "Bespoken Spirits: Disrupting Distilling." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 721-852, January 2021.
      • January 2021
      • Case

      Bespoken Spirits: Disrupting Distilling

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher
      On October 7, 2020, Bespoken Spirits publicly announced it had received $2.6 million of seed funding for its “sustainable maturation process,” a process that could produce award-winning whiskeys in just days rather than years using a novel technology and data science. ...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Ventures; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Disruption; Entrepreneurship; Environmental Sustainability; Cash Flow; Disruptive Innovation; Innovation Strategy; Brands and Branding; Business Model; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Service Industry; United States; California
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Daniel Fisher. "Bespoken Spirits: Disrupting Distilling." Harvard Business School Case 721-419, January 2021.
      • January 2021 (Revised February 2021)
      • Case

      Carnival Corporation: Cruising Through COVID-19

      By: Stuart C. Gilson and Sarah Abbott
      In March 2020, in response to the global pandemic, the cruise industry ceased operations. Carnival was the largest cruise line operator in the world, and CEO Arnold Donald and his management team worked to position the company to survive. They slashed operating...  View Details
      Keywords: Debt Issuance; Equity Issuances; Convertible Debt; Cruise Lines; Restructuring; Capital; Crisis Management; Cash Flow; Health Pandemics; Borrowing and Debt; Travel Industry; United States
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      Gilson, Stuart C., and Sarah Abbott. "Carnival Corporation: Cruising Through COVID-19." Harvard Business School Case 221-028, January 2021. (Revised February 2021.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      An Empirical Guide to Investor-Level Private Equity Data from Preqin

      By: Juliane Begenau, Claudia Robles-Garcia, Emil Siriwardane and Lulu Wang
      This note provides guidance on the use of investor-level private equity data from Preqin for empirical research. Preqin primarily sources its cash flow data through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests with U.S. public pensions. Our focus is on the components of...  View Details
      Keywords: Private Equity Returns; Prequin Data; Private Equity; Analytics and Data Science; Investment Return
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      Begenau, Juliane, Claudia Robles-Garcia, Emil Siriwardane, and Lulu Wang. "An Empirical Guide to Investor-Level Private Equity Data from Preqin." Working Paper, December 2020.
      • November 2020
      • Teaching Note

      Valuing Celgene's CVR

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher
      When Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) acquired Celgene Corporation in November 2019, Celgene shareholders received cash, BMS stock, and a contingent value right (CVRs) that would pay $9 if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved three of Celgene’s late stage...  View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Valuation; Value; Judgments; Decision Making; Cash Flow; Financial Instruments; Cognition and Thinking; Pharmaceutical Industry; Biotechnology Industry; United States
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Daniel Fisher. "Valuing Celgene's CVR." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 221-036, November 2020.
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