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    • All HBS Web  (2,370)
      • Faculty Publications  (102)

      Business Cycles Remove Business Cycles →

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      VMD Medical Imaging Center
      Digital Equipment Corp.: The Endpoint Model (A)
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      • January 2021
      • Case

      Anodot: Autonomous Business Monitoring

      By: Antonio Moreno and Danielle Golan
      Autonomous business monitoring platform Anodot leveraged machine learning to providing real-time alerts regarding business anomalies. Anodot’s solution was used in various industries in order to primarily monitor business health, such as revenue and payments, product...  View Details
      Keywords: Technology Platform; Online Technology; Knowledge Sharing; Information Management; Sales; Value Creation; Product Positioning; Israel
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      Moreno, Antonio, and Danielle Golan. "Anodot: Autonomous Business Monitoring." Harvard Business School Case 621-084, January 2021.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Nonprofts in Good Times and Bad Times

      By: Christine L. Exley, Nils H. Lehr and Stephen J. Terry
      Need fluctuates over the business cycle, yet little is known about nonprofit behavior over the cycle. This paper exploits data from millions of tax returns and provides key descriptive facts about nonprofits in the face of economic fluctuations. Nonprofit revenue,...  View Details
      Keywords: Nonprofit Organizations; business cycles; Philanthropy And Charitable Giving
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      Exley, Christine L., Nils H. Lehr, and Stephen J. Terry. "Nonprofts in Good Times and Bad Times." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-076, December 2020.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Real Credit Cycles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
      We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S....  View Details
      Keywords: Econometric Models; business cycles; Credit
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups

      By: Shai Benjamin Bernstein, Richard Townsend and Ting Xu
      This paper investigates how economic downturns affect the flow of human capital to startups. Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how individuals’ online job searches and applications changed during the emergence of the COVID-19 crisis. We find that...  View Details
      Keywords: Startup Labor Market; Flight To Safety; Covid-19; Recession; business Startups; Human Capital; business cycles; Health Pandemics
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      Bernstein, Shai Benjamin, Richard Townsend, and Ting Xu. "Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-045, September 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Bankruptcy and the COVID-19 Crisis

      By: Jialan Wang, Jeyul Yang, Benjamin Iverson and Ray Kluender
      We examine the impact of the COVID-19 economic crisis on business and consumer bankruptcies in the United States using real-time data on the universe of filings. Historically, bankruptcies have closely tracked the business cycle and contemporaneous unemployment rates....  View Details
      Keywords: Bankruptcy; Financial Distress; Covid-19; Insolvency And Bankruptcy; Financial Crisis; Health Pandemics; United States
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      Wang, Jialan, Jeyul Yang, Benjamin Iverson, and Ray Kluender. "Bankruptcy and the COVID-19 Crisis." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-041, September 2020.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Predictable Financial Crises

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
      Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Forecasting And Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27396, June 2020. (Revised March 2021. Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-130, June 2020)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Financial Distancing: How Venture Capital Follows the Economy Down and Curtails Innovation

      By: Sabrina T. Howell, Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda and Richard Townsend
      Although late-stage venture capital (VC) activity did not change dramatically in the first two months after the COVID-19 pandemic reached the U.S., early-stage VC activity declined by 38%. The particular sensitivity of early-stage VC investment to market...  View Details
      Keywords: Innovation; Recessions; Venture Capital; Innovation And Invention; Patents; business cycles; Economic Slowdown And Stagnation
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      Howell, Sabrina T., Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda, and Richard Townsend. "Financial Distancing: How Venture Capital Follows the Economy Down and Curtails Innovation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-115, May 2020.
      • November 2019
      • Teaching Note

      Actera Group: Investing in Mars Cinema Group (A) and (B)

      By: Victoria Ivashina and Jeffrey Boyar
      In summer of 2010, Murat Çavuşoğlu (HBS MBA 1994) led private equity firm Actera Group’s investment in Mars Cinema Group (Mars), the leading movie exhibitor in Turkey. Immediately after acquiring Mars and merging it with the second larger player in the market, AFM,...  View Details
      Keywords: Private Equity; Value Creation; Transformation; Valuation; Entertainment And Recreation Industry; Motion Pictures And Video Industry; Turkey
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      Ivashina, Victoria, and Jeffrey Boyar. "Actera Group: Investing in Mars Cinema Group (A) and (B)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 220-045, November 2019.
      • August 2019 (Revised February 2020)
      • Case

      New Hope Liuhe: Building an Integrated Agri-Food Business

      By: Forest L. Reinhardt, Shu Lin, Natalie Kindred and Nancy Hua Dai
      In October 2018, LIU Chang (Angela), chairman of Beijing-based New Hope Liuhe (NHL), was considering the strategy of the firm. With $9 billion in sales and a presence in nearly 20 countries, NHL was China’s largest animal feed producer and a major pork and poultry...  View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Food; Agribusiness; Expansion; Diversification; Growth Management; Consumer Behavior; Change Management; Entrepreneurship; Organizational Structure; Organizational Change And Adaptation; Government And Politics; Animal-based Agribusiness; Transformation; Volatility; business cycles; Goods And Commodities; Supply Chain; Product; Agriculture And Agribusiness Industry; Food And Beverage Industry; China; Asia
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      Reinhardt, Forest L., Shu Lin, Natalie Kindred, and Nancy Hua Dai. "New Hope Liuhe: Building an Integrated Agri-Food Business." Harvard Business School Case 720-009, August 2019. (Revised February 2020.)
      • July 2019 (Revised September 2019)
      • Case

      The Homes Cycling Shop

      By: Paul M. Healy
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      Healy, Paul M. "The Homes Cycling Shop." Harvard Business School Case 120-019, July 2019. (Revised September 2019.)
      • 2019
      • Book

      Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream: How Technology Is Transforming Lending and Shaping a New Era of Small Business Opportunity

      By: Karen G. Mills
      Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream describes the needs of small businesses for capital and demonstrates how technology—novel data sources, artificial intelligence, machine learning—will transform the small business lending market. This market has been...  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech; Big Data; Data; Technology; Artificial Intelligence; Great Recession; Regulation; Policy; Innovation; Banks; Lending; Loans; Access To Capital; American Dream; Community Banking; Small Business Administration; Entrepreneur; Government; Public Policy; Api; Policy Making; Small business; Financing And Loans; Technological Innovation; Financial Crisis; Banks And Banking; Governing Rules, Regulations, And Reforms; Policy; United States
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      Mills, Karen G. Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream: How Technology Is Transforming Lending and Shaping a New Era of Small Business Opportunity. Palgrave Macmillan, 2019.
      • December 2018 (Revised February 2019)
      • Case

      Associação Saúde Criança: Trying to Break the Cycle of Poverty and Illness at Scale

      By: Julie Battilana, Marissa Kimsey, Priscilla Zogbi and Johanna Mair
      Dr. Vera Cordeiro founded the NGO Associação Saúde Criança in 1991 to try to help poor families break the cycle of poverty and illness in Brazil. She and her team of employees and volunteers developed a holistic methodology to address the multidimensional sources of...  View Details
      Keywords: Social Innovation; Ngo; Scaling; Health; Social Enterprise; Social Entrepreneurship; Non-governmental Organizations; Health Care And Treatment; Poverty; Health Industry; South America; Brazil
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      Battilana, Julie, Marissa Kimsey, Priscilla Zogbi, and Johanna Mair. "Associação Saúde Criança: Trying to Break the Cycle of Poverty and Illness at Scale." Harvard Business School Case 419-048, December 2018. (Revised February 2019.)
      • October 2018 (Revised May 2019)
      • Teaching Note

      Intuit: Turbo Tax PersonalPro - A Tale of Two Entrepreneurs

      By: Joseph Fuller, Shikhar Ghosh and Monica Baraldi
      Teaching Note for HBS No. 816-048. The case tells the story of a product manager within Intuit who develops an idea for a new product that spans two of the company's existing business units—professional tax software, sold to accountants, and the consumer focused...  View Details
      Keywords: business Units; business Or Company Management; Software; Accounting; Product Development; Financial Services Industry
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      Fuller, Joseph, Shikhar Ghosh, and Monica Baraldi. "Intuit: Turbo Tax PersonalPro - A Tale of Two Entrepreneurs." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 319-045, October 2018. (Revised May 2019.)
      • August 2018 (Revised March 2019)
      • Case

      Facebook—Can Ethics Scale in the Digital Age?

      By: George A. Riedel and Carin-Isabel Knoop
      Since its founding in 2004, Facebook has built a phenomenally successful business at global scale to become the fifth most valuable public company in the world. The revelation of Cambridge Analytica events in March 2018, where 78 million users' information was leaked...  View Details
      Keywords: Facebook; Social Media; Ethics; Ethics; Corporate Social Responsibility And Impact; business And Stakeholder Relations; Trust; business Model; Corporate Accountability
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      Riedel, George A., and Carin-Isabel Knoop. "Facebook—Can Ethics Scale in the Digital Age?" Harvard Business School Case 319-030, August 2018. (Revised March 2019.)
      • May 2018 (Revised October 2018)
      • Case

      Argentina Power—Don't Cry for Me Argentina

      By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Sayiddah Fatima McCree
      In 2016, Bruce Wayne, Managing Director of Energy Finance Corporation (“EFC”), was refining the Investment/Credit Committee materials for the development of up to 10 power generating plants in Argentina. As a subsidiary of the much larger International Conglomerate...  View Details
      Keywords: Cross Border; Energy Markets; Infrastructure Finance; Infrastructure Development; business Subsidiaries; business cycles; Macroeconomics; Energy Generation; International Finance; Project Finance; Government And Politics; Demand And Consumers; Infrastructure; Utilities Industry; Energy Industry; Financial Services Industry; Argentina; Latin America
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      Lietz, Nori Gerardo, and Sayiddah Fatima McCree. "Argentina Power—Don't Cry for Me Argentina." Harvard Business School Case 218-041, May 2018. (Revised October 2018.)
      • Article

      The Asymmetric Experience of Positive and Negative Economic Growth: Global Evidence Using Subjective Well-being Data

      By: Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, George Ward, Femke De Keulenaer, Bert Van Landeghem, Georgios Kavetsos and Michael I. Norton
      Are individuals more sensitive to losses than gains in terms of economic growth? We find that measures of subjective well-being are more than twice as sensitive to negative as compared to positive economic growth. We use Gallup World Poll data from over 150 countries,...  View Details
      Keywords: Economic Growth; business cycles; Welfare; Perception; Global Range
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      De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel, George Ward, Femke De Keulenaer, Bert Van Landeghem, Georgios Kavetsos, and Michael I. Norton. "The Asymmetric Experience of Positive and Negative Economic Growth: Global Evidence Using Subjective Well-being Data." Review of Economics and Statistics 100, no. 2 (May 2018): 362–375.
      • February 2018 (Revised June 2018)
      • Case

      Uruguay: Facing the 21st Century

      By: Sophus A. Reinert, Michael Chu and Carin-Isabel Knoop
      In the fall of 2017, self-made business leader Edgardo Novick pondered his campaign to be elected President of Uruguay, “the Switzerland of Latin America.” Inspired by populist revolts against the status quo observable worldwide, Novick hoped he could ride popular...  View Details
      Keywords: Uruguay; Edgardo Novick; business cycles; Macroeconomics; Geographic Location; Government And Politics; Wealth And Poverty; Economic Slowdown And Stagnation; Globalization; Pulp And Paper Industry; Agriculture And Agribusiness Industry; Uruguay
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      Reinert, Sophus A., Michael Chu, and Carin-Isabel Knoop. "Uruguay: Facing the 21st Century." Harvard Business School Case 318-019, February 2018. (Revised June 2018.)
      • February 2018 (Revised January 2020)
      • Case

      SoulCycle: The Road Ahead

      By: Ashish Nanda, Eric Van den Steen and Jeffrey Boyar
      Julie Rice and Elizabeth Cutler founded SoulCycle, an indoor cycling studio chain, in 2006 as more than a health club; they wanted it to become a lifestyle brand that would “empower riders in an immersive fitness experience.” By early 2015, SoulCycle had grown to 38...  View Details
      Keywords: Fitness; Fitness Industry; Exercise; Cycling; Boutique Fitness; Exit Strategy; Growth; Bicycles; Retail; Pricing; Community; Soulcycle; Vision; Health; Leadership; Strategy; Marketing; Decision Making; Health Industry; United States
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      Nanda, Ashish, Eric Van den Steen, and Jeffrey Boyar. "SoulCycle: The Road Ahead." Harvard Business School Case 718-499, February 2018. (Revised January 2020.)
      • December 2017 (Revised March 2018)
      • Case

      Globalization Past, 1850–1914 (A)

      By: Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
      On the evening of 3 August 1914, British Foreign Secretary Lord Edward Grey contemplated whether to advise King and Parliament to declare war on Germany in the wake of the country’s invasion of Belgium or to stay out of what quickly was becoming a world war triggered...  View Details
      Keywords: The World; The Rise And Fall Of Globalization; World War; Globalization; War; Economics; Trade; business cycles; Economic Growth; Economic Slowdown And Stagnation; Society; History; Values And Beliefs; Macroeconomics
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      Reinert, Sophus A., and Federica Gabrieli. "Globalization Past, 1850–1914 (A)." Harvard Business School Case 718-023, December 2017. (Revised March 2018.)
      • December 2017
      • Supplement

      Globalization Past, 1850–1914 (B)

      By: Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
      Supplements the (A) case.  View Details
      Keywords: The Rise And Fall Of Globalization; World War; The World; business cycles; Economic Growth; Economic Slowdown And Stagnation; Macroeconomics; Trade; Values And Beliefs; Globalization; War
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      Reinert, Sophus A., and Federica Gabrieli. "Globalization Past, 1850–1914 (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 718-030, December 2017.
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